工业硅日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现：工业硅期货价格基本回吐昨日涨幅。Si2601 收盘价 9075 元/吨，跌幅 2.37%，成交量 574345 手，持仓量 273978 手，净减 32691 手。 现货价格：现货价格小幅上调，553#价格区间 9300-9500 元/吨，421#价格区间 9700-10050 元/吨。 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of industrial silicon will shrink next week as the dry - season production cuts in Southwest China are more significant, despite the复产 expectations in Northwest China [2] - The downstream demand for industrial silicon is diverse. Organic silicon maintains a rigid - demand state but has limited consumption upside due to the sluggish terminal market. The short - term weekly production of polysilicon is still high, but there are expectations of production cuts, which may reduce the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the aluminum alloy industry is stable but has limited marginal impact on prices [2] - Industrial silicon follows the polysilicon trend and remains stable. It is expected to have a higher probability of oscillating upward in the future. It is recommended to go long on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,195 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the main contract position is 262,136 hands, down 8,823 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 64,101 hands, up 1,755 hands; the GZEE warehouse receipts are 45,936 hands, down 143 hands; the basis between the December and January industrial silicon contracts is 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) are 410 yuan/ton, 2,410 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 70,232.72 tons, an increase of 1,939.85 tons; the monthly export volume is 602.27 tons, a decrease of 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 21,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.95 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.26%, an increase of 0.7%; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1,776,000 tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On November 11, 2025, Hesheng Silicon Industry announced that Fuda Industrial plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 27.0705 million shares (2.29% of the total share capital) in the next three months for its own capital needs [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated narrowly, with the Si2601 closing at 9020 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.06%, a trading volume of 276,196 lots, and an open interest of 232,849 lots, a net decrease of 9,304 lots [4]. - Spot prices were slightly raised and then stabilized, with the 553 price ranging from 9,000 to 9,400 yuan/ton and the 421 price ranging from 9,600 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. - In November, the southwest production areas are expected to enter the seasonal production - reduction stage. Sichuan and Yunnan produced over 90,000 tons in October, compared with 64,200 tons in the same period last year. However, the northern production areas have an expected increase in production. The current supply - demand imbalance has not been reversed, and the actual production reduction after profit repair remains to be observed. Spot prices are generally stable, and the 01 price is in a convergent oscillation stage, still operating within the adjustment range after August [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The Si2601 closed at 9020 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 276,196 lots and an open interest of 232,849 lots, a net decrease of 9,304 lots [4]. - Spot prices were slightly raised and then stabilized, with the 553 price ranging from 9,000 to 9,400 yuan/ton and the 421 price ranging from 9,600 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 6th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the GZEE was 46,281 lots, a net increase of 86 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - On October 31st, the industrial silicon market inventory was 447,700 tons, a weekly increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.59% [5]. - In September, the industrial silicon export volume was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. From January to September, the cumulative industrial silicon export volume was 491,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 61,500 tons [5].

Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 04, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as industrial silicon [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices opened low, then trended lower, and finally rebounded weakly. The Si2601 contract closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38%, with a trading volume of 226,808 lots and an open interest of 228,268 lots, a net decrease of 297 lots [4] - The price range of 553 industrial silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 is 9550 - 9950 yuan/ton [5] Outlook - Industrial silicon enterprises have insufficient willingness to actively cut production. Supply in October will exceed about 430,000 tons, and there is no incremental demand. The loose supply - demand situation means there is no inventory reduction drive, and social inventory still exceeds 440,000 tons [5] - Spot prices have limited guidance on short - term futures prices. The expected support in the fourth quarter mainly comes from rising costs in the southwest and active production cuts, but the effectiveness of the positive factors remains to be seen [5] - The industrial silicon market has limited strong drivers. The futures price is still within the adjustment range since August. In November, warehouse receipts need to be concentrated for cancellation and delivery, which will intensify short - term price fluctuations, but the upside resistance is still obvious [5] Group 3: Market News - On November 03, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 46,161 lots, a net decrease of 1,092 lots from the previous trading day [6] - On October 31, the industrial silicon market inventory was 447,700 tons, a weekly increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.59% [6] - In September, the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 61,500 tons [6]

Core Insights - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a divergence with "futures prices rising and spot prices remaining stable" [1] - The main contract price for industrial silicon increased from 9060 CNY/ton to 9170 CNY/ton, a rise of 110 CNY/ton over the past week [1] - The overall national industrial silicon price remained stable at 9174 CNY/ton as of October 29 [1] Price Analysis - The prices for different grades of industrial silicon are as follows: 553 at 8708 CNY/ton, 441 at 9055 CNY/ton, and 421 at 9658 CNY/ton, all showing stability [1] - Regional prices are stable with Xinjiang at 8798 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 9753 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 9950 CNY/ton [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic industrial silicon production capacity is being released steadily, with companies showing a strong reluctance to sell, leading to a relatively tight supply situation [1] - Demand from downstream industries such as organic silicon and aluminum alloys is primarily focused on meeting rigid needs, with no large-scale stockpiling observed [1] - Expectations of production cuts in the polysilicon sector may influence market dynamics [1] Market Outlook - In November, the market is expected to face both supply contraction and demand decline [2] - The rise in futures prices may alleviate some pressure on the spot market, while the reluctance to sell in the southwestern region will help maintain a tight balance between supply and demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in industrial silicon prices is primarily supported by cost factors and optimistic demand expectations, despite a tight supply-demand balance in the market [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon rose from 8905 CNY/ton to 9020 CNY/ton, an increase of 115 CNY/ton during the week of September 18 to September 24 [1]. - The national comprehensive price for industrial silicon reached 9207 CNY/ton, up by 31 CNY/ton from the previous week [1]. - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw varied price changes: 553 at 8757 CNY/ton (+49 CNY/ton), 441 at 9092 CNY/ton (unchanged), and 421 at 9672 CNY/ton (+14 CNY/ton) [1]. Supply Factors - The upcoming dry season in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to lead to rising electricity prices, which, along with anticipated increases in silicon coal prices, is strengthening producers' willingness to maintain higher prices [2]. - Although this situation is contributing to inventory accumulation, it is also providing strong support for prices [2]. Demand Factors - Organic silicon companies are showing intentions to raise prices due to short-term impacts from southern weather conditions [2]. - Despite strong pricing in the polysilicon market, its actual demand pull remains limited, with companies still in a wait-and-see mode regarding production resumption [2]. Market Dynamics - The industrial silicon market is currently in a phase of negotiation between upstream and downstream players, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand [2]. - The situation of strong expectations but weak realities has not fundamentally changed, but it is anticipated that the arrival of the dry season will exacerbate cost increases and supply-demand tensions [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The policy-driven for industrial silicon is limited. After the rebound of spot prices, the profit of production devices turns positive, leading to continuous resumption and increase in production. The monthly output in September will exceed 400,000 tons, nearly 80,000 tons more than that in June. The demand increment is still mainly contributed by the polysilicon sector, with an expected output of 125,000 tons in September, nearly 30,000 tons more than that in June. The organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a total monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The pressure of supply-demand imbalance has not been effectively alleviated, and there is no inventory reduction drive in the market. The spot price remains stable, and the futures price rebounds with reduced positions around 8,200, with the low-level range being tested four times and showing strong support. Overall, it continues to fluctuate widely [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The closing price of Si2511 is 8,665 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.58%. The trading volume is 622,948 lots, and the open interest is 278,065 lots, a net decrease of 7,975 lots [4]. - Spot price: The price of Sichuan 553 is 8,800 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 is 8,550 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia 421 is 9,400 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 is 9,150 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market News - On September 10, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,045 lots, a net increase of 90 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, the export volume of metallic silicon was 74,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.32% and a year-on-year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total export volume of metallic silicon was 414,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - Data shows that from January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic industrial silicon market is experiencing price stability in the spot market, while futures prices have slightly declined, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid conflicting supply and demand expectations [1][2]. Price Trends - The main futures contract closed at 8600 CNY/ton, down from 8700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% decrease. The national average price remains stable at 9196 CNY/ton, with specific grades priced as follows: 553 at 8764 CNY/ton, 441 at 9174 CNY/ton, and 421 at 9875 CNY/ton. Regional prices include Xinjiang at 8840 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10020 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 9900 CNY/ton [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a contradictory state, with government policies providing positive guidance for the medium to long term, while industry expectations for short-term supply and demand remain pessimistic. Major domestic producers are gradually resuming production, with operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increasing by 50% and 30%, respectively. However, most production is hedged through futures contracts, limiting immediate sales volume and willingness to lower prices [1][2]. Demand Insights - Although downstream polysilicon and organosilicon companies are increasing their operating rates, their purchasing intentions are low as they anticipate lower prices for procurement [1][2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a weak balance with both supply and demand increasing in August, leading to a slight downward trend in prices [2].

Report Date - The report date is August 05, 2025 [2] Research Team - The research team includes Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2509 was 8360 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.46%. The trading volume was 187,014 lots, and the open interest was 176,164 lots, with a net decrease of 18,176 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The supply - demand relationship has not improved. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the capacity to increase production of silicone was limited in the short term [4] - After the policy - driven market sentiment cooled down, the previous trends of the same - sector varieties began to diverge. There was no clear policy for industrial silicon, and the spot price began to weaken. The hourly chart broke through the support level, forming a short - term bearish trend and reaching a low of 8225 yuan/ton. It is expected to be mainly in a weak short - term oscillation [4] Market News - On August 04, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,312 lots, a net decrease of 204 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export volume of 56,500 tons [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [5] - From January to June, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices remained stable over the past week, with minor fluctuations observed in the market, indicating a cautious but improving market sentiment [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Industrial silicon manufacturers are producing according to plan, with slight production increases from the Southwest region due to some resumption of operations and new capacity coming online [1]. - Demand side: There is an expected increase in operating rates for organic silicon monomer plants in northern regions, which will boost demand for industrial silicon. Additionally, there is a slight increase in operating rates for polysilicon plants, maintaining demand for industrial silicon. Aluminum alloy plants are operating normally, keeping demand stable [1]. Price Dynamics - The overall market for industrial silicon remains under pressure, with prices expected to continue fluctuating within a lower range due to increased supply and limited demand growth. Organic silicon monomer plants are facing inventory pressure, leading to competitive pricing and price declines. The drop in silicon wafer prices has also contributed to a negative sentiment in polysilicon procurement, further impacting prices [1].