整体而言，本周工业硅市场上下游仍处于博弈阶段，市场供需依旧呈现紧平衡态 势，强预期弱现实的局面未发生根本性改变。但预计未来随着枯水期的来临，成本上 涨以及市场供需紧张的局面将愈发显著。 本周工业硅期货价格有所回升。在过去一周（ 9 月 18 日至 9 月 24 日），主力合约 2511 收盘价从 8905 元 / 吨震荡上行至 9020 元 / 吨，累计上涨 115 元 / 吨。同时，根据 安泰科采集价格统计，全国工业硅综合价格 9207 元 / 吨，较上周上涨 31 元 / 吨。分牌 号来看， 553# 工业硅价格为 8757 元 / 吨，上涨 49 元 / 吨； 441# 工业硅价格为 9092 元 / 吨，与上周持平； 421# 工业硅价格为 9672 元 / 吨，上涨 14 元 / 吨。地区方面，新 疆、云南和四川的工业硅综合价格分别为 8848 元 / 吨、 9753 元 / 吨和 9950 元 / 吨。 FOB 价格与上周持平。 成本支撑与乐观需求预期是支撑本周工业硅现货价格小幅上扬的主要因素。供应层 面：四川和云南地区即将步入枯水期，电价上涨势在必行，加之硅煤价格存在上涨预 期，生产企业的挺价意 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The policy-driven for industrial silicon is limited. After the rebound of spot prices, the profit of production devices turns positive, leading to continuous resumption and increase in production. The monthly output in September will exceed 400,000 tons, nearly 80,000 tons more than that in June. The demand increment is still mainly contributed by the polysilicon sector, with an expected output of 125,000 tons in September, nearly 30,000 tons more than that in June. The organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a total monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The pressure of supply-demand imbalance has not been effectively alleviated, and there is no inventory reduction drive in the market. The spot price remains stable, and the futures price rebounds with reduced positions around 8,200, with the low-level range being tested four times and showing strong support. Overall, it continues to fluctuate widely [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The closing price of Si2511 is 8,665 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.58%. The trading volume is 622,948 lots, and the open interest is 278,065 lots, a net decrease of 7,975 lots [4]. - Spot price: The price of Sichuan 553 is 8,800 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 is 8,550 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia 421 is 9,400 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 is 9,150 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market News - On September 10, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,045 lots, a net increase of 90 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, the export volume of metallic silicon was 74,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.32% and a year-on-year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total export volume of metallic silicon was 414,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - Data shows that from January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic industrial silicon market is experiencing price stability in the spot market, while futures prices have slightly declined, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid conflicting supply and demand expectations [1][2]. Price Trends - The main futures contract closed at 8600 CNY/ton, down from 8700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% decrease. The national average price remains stable at 9196 CNY/ton, with specific grades priced as follows: 553 at 8764 CNY/ton, 441 at 9174 CNY/ton, and 421 at 9875 CNY/ton. Regional prices include Xinjiang at 8840 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10020 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 9900 CNY/ton [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a contradictory state, with government policies providing positive guidance for the medium to long term, while industry expectations for short-term supply and demand remain pessimistic. Major domestic producers are gradually resuming production, with operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increasing by 50% and 30%, respectively. However, most production is hedged through futures contracts, limiting immediate sales volume and willingness to lower prices [1][2]. Demand Insights - Although downstream polysilicon and organosilicon companies are increasing their operating rates, their purchasing intentions are low as they anticipate lower prices for procurement [1][2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a weak balance with both supply and demand increasing in August, leading to a slight downward trend in prices [2].

Report Date - The report date is August 05, 2025 [2] Research Team - The research team includes Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2509 was 8360 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.46%. The trading volume was 187,014 lots, and the open interest was 176,164 lots, with a net decrease of 18,176 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The supply - demand relationship has not improved. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the capacity to increase production of silicone was limited in the short term [4] - After the policy - driven market sentiment cooled down, the previous trends of the same - sector varieties began to diverge. There was no clear policy for industrial silicon, and the spot price began to weaken. The hourly chart broke through the support level, forming a short - term bearish trend and reaching a low of 8225 yuan/ton. It is expected to be mainly in a weak short - term oscillation [4] Market News - On August 04, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,312 lots, a net decrease of 204 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export volume of 56,500 tons [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [5] - From January to June, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices remained stable over the past week, with minor fluctuations observed in the market, indicating a cautious but improving market sentiment [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Industrial silicon manufacturers are producing according to plan, with slight production increases from the Southwest region due to some resumption of operations and new capacity coming online [1]. - Demand side: There is an expected increase in operating rates for organic silicon monomer plants in northern regions, which will boost demand for industrial silicon. Additionally, there is a slight increase in operating rates for polysilicon plants, maintaining demand for industrial silicon. Aluminum alloy plants are operating normally, keeping demand stable [1]. Price Dynamics - The overall market for industrial silicon remains under pressure, with prices expected to continue fluctuating within a lower range due to increased supply and limited demand growth. Organic silicon monomer plants are facing inventory pressure, leading to competitive pricing and price declines. The drop in silicon wafer prices has also contributed to a negative sentiment in polysilicon procurement, further impacting prices [1].

Group 1 - Industrial silicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7595.0 yuan, with a rise of 2.70% [1] - The market is seeing a reduction in positions while prices are increasing, indicating a potential shift in trading dynamics [2] - Supply from major producers in Xinjiang is driving the weekly increase in industrial silicon, while downstream production of polysilicon and organic silicon is also rising [2] Group 2 - Some institutions predict that silicon prices may maintain a strong trend due to increased demand and production recovery [2] - However, other analyses suggest that the market may face downward pressure due to stable supply and declining demand from the organic silicon sector [3] - The overall sentiment in the market is mixed, with some expecting a potential decline in prices while others see short-term strength [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - With the approaching of the wet season, power - cost advantages in Yunnan and Sichuan are emerging, accelerating the resumption of production of local industrial silicon enterprises. The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is declining, and the large number of warrants exerts significant delivery pressure on the market, suppressing price increases. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for medium - to long - term operations [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 192,802 lots, a decrease of 596 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 29,280 lots, a decrease of 8,682 lots; the warrant volume on GZEE is 65,653 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is - 25 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,930 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,200 tons, a decrease of 300 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.3 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.57%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, an increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - On May 20, Tongwei Co., Ltd. held its 2024 annual general meeting. The management team emphasized confidence in the long - term development of the photovoltaic industry despite the current downturn. As the wet season approaches, power - cost advantages in Yunnan and Sichuan are emerging, accelerating the resumption of production of local industrial silicon enterprises [2]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a slight decline in spot prices, with a mixed sentiment in trading and a stable supply-demand dynamic [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - The main contract price fluctuated between 8315 CNY/ton and 8490 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.10% [1] - The national average price decreased by 193 CNY/ton to 9276 CNY/ton, with specific grades showing varied declines: 553 grade at 9027 CNY/ton, 441 grade at 9520 CNY/ton, and 421 grade at 9928 CNY/ton [1] - FOB prices remained stable despite the fluctuations in domestic prices [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Southern regions saw a slight increase in operating rates, while northern regions maintained stable operations with minimal reductions from large plants [1] - Overall supply changes were limited, indicating a balanced supply situation [1] Group 3: Demand Factors - There was a slight increase in demand for industrial silicon due to the completion of maintenance at some organic silicon monomer plants [1] - Demand from polysilicon plants remained stable, while aluminum alloy companies continued to purchase industrial silicon as needed [1] - The overall trend indicates a slight increase in demand from the three major downstream sectors [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The market atmosphere for industrial silicon transactions was described as subdued, with downstream buyers adopting a cautious approach [1] - Despite a rise in the main contract price, spot prices continued to decline due to insufficient demand momentum and ongoing inventory pressure [2] - Short-term expectations suggest that spot prices will remain in a bottoming-out phase [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The current marginal demand for industrial silicon is weakening, the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and high inventory and high warehouse receipts suppress the price rebound. Silicon prices are in a weak and volatile state [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - This week, the industrial silicon spot market is running weakly. Affected by the continuous weak downstream demand, the market is in a continuous slump. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10200 yuan/ton [1]. - Last Friday, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract si2506 was 8205, a decrease of 0.55%. The daily position reduction was 10,933 lots. The current position is 170,200 lots, and the trading volume is 14.349 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - Northwest large - scale factories continue to cut production. The eastern production area has shut down 3 submerged arc furnaces, and the western production area has shut down 5 submerged arc furnaces, a total of 8. There may be more shutdown plans in the future. In the southwest production area, manufacturers are cautious about the current market, but some manufacturers said they will increase or resume production. It is expected that about 10 submerged arc furnaces will resume production from the end of the month to the second half of the month [1]. Demand Side - Polysilicon prices have no obvious fluctuations and remain within a range. The N - type compact material is quoted at 38 - 40 yuan/kg, the N - type granular silicon is quoted at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, the N - type re - feed material is quoted at 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and the N - type mixed material is quoted at 36 - 38 yuan/kg. Component inventories are under pressure, and some enterprises are gradually planning production cuts. The main polysilicon futures contract ps2506 is approaching its first delivery, with obvious long - short differences in the market [1]. - The market price of organic silicon DMC is generally stable, with the mainstream opening price in the market referring to 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The organic silicon market shows signs of phased stabilization, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists [1]. - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is temporarily stable. The industry's operating rate has decreased. Downstream enterprises mainly consume pre - holiday orders, and their willingness to stock up after the holiday is insufficient [1]. Inventory On May 9, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 67,338 lots, a single - week decrease of 1,898 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to decrease but remains at a high level [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that industrial silicon spot prices have continued to decline, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment and unchanged supply-demand fundamentals [1] Group 2 - During the week from April 30 to May 7, the main contract closing price fluctuated from 8540 yuan/ton to 8290 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2.93% [1] - The national average price for industrial silicon is reported at 9469 yuan/ton, down by 179 yuan/ton [1] - Price breakdown by grade shows that 553 grade is at 9202 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton), 441 grade at 9674 yuan/ton (down 181 yuan/ton), and 421 grade at 10134 yuan/ton (down 122 yuan/ton) [1] - Regional average prices include Xinjiang at 9371 yuan/ton, Yunnan at 10024 yuan/ton, Fujian at 15163 yuan/ton, and Sichuan at 10100 yuan/ton [1] - FOB prices have remained stable, but the overall market sentiment remains negative, leading to continued pressure on spot prices [1]