本周工业硅市场整体运行平稳，期现表现有所分化。期货方面，主力合约 2605 收盘价 自节前 8860 元 / 吨上涨至 8980 元 / 吨，期间累计上涨 120 元 / 吨 。现货方面，全国工业硅 综合价格维持稳定，据安泰科统计， 1 月 7 日报 9245 元 / 吨，与上周持平。具体规格中， 553# 价格报 8713 元 / 吨， 441# 价格报 9169 元 / 吨，均未出现波动。区域价格方面，新 疆、云南、四川综合价格分别为 8810 元 / 吨、 10005 元 / 吨、 10050 元 / 吨；出口 FOB 价 格亦保持稳定。 本周工业硅生产整体保持平稳，但部分地区出现小幅减量。受跨年氛围及长单支撑，企 业报价多维持在现金成本的水平附近，尽管近期期货盘面有所改善、出货量小幅回暖，但 在长单执行压力下，企业调价意愿不强，多数仍以维护现有客户为主，暂未主动调整报 价。整体来看，尽管部分企业已进入亏损区间，但出于年度生产计划与长单履约的考虑， 多数企业仍维持正常生产，以保障客户供应并稳定市场份额。从成本支撑角度看，目前新 疆部分企业尚处于现金成本线附近，预计短期价格仍将延续弱势震荡格局。 与此同时 ...

智通财经APP获悉，12月26日，硅业分会发文称，本周工业硅市场供需双弱，价格在成本支撑与需求疲软的双重 制约下继续震荡。期货市场方面，12月18日至24日，主力合约2605收盘价自8645元/吨上涨至8860元/吨，累计上涨 215元/吨。现货市场则表现分化：据安泰科统计，12月24日全国工业硅综合价格为9245元/吨，较上周下跌5元/ 吨。具体来看，553#价格报8713元/吨，较上周下跌94元/吨；441#价格报9169元/吨，较上周上涨51元/吨。区域方 面，新疆、云南、四川综合价格分别为8810元/吨、10005元/吨、10050元/吨；出口FOB价格与上周持平。 供应端生产平稳，报价分化，成交清淡。主要产区新疆产量保持稳定，但期货价格波动加剧了现货报价的分化： 厂家或报价坚挺，或选择暂不报价，或改善企业现金流而低于市场均价出货。内蒙古、四川、云南、甘肃等地现 有产能多用于内部结算或长单销售，持续低价格环境压制生产积极性，目前开工率已处于较低水平。虽有少量现 货试图挺价，但市场接受度有限，整体成交延续清淡格局。随着期货盘面走弱，"盘面价格+基差"的采购模式日益 普遍，现货价格与期货市场的联动增强，定 ...

本周工业硅市场供需双弱，价格在成本支撑与需求疲软的双重制约下继续震荡。期货市场方面， 12 月 18 日至 24 日，主力合约 2605 收盘价自 8645 元 / 吨上涨至 8860 元 / 吨，累计上涨 215 元 / 吨。现货市场则表现分化：据安泰科统计， 12 月 24 日全国工业硅综合价格为 9245 元 / 吨， 较上周下跌 5 元 / 吨。具体来看， 553# 价格报 8713 元 / 吨， 较上周下跌 94 元 / 吨 ； 441# 价 格报 9169 元 / 吨，较上周上涨 51 元 / 吨。区域方面，新疆、云南、四川综合价格分别为 8810 元 / 吨、 10005 元 / 吨、 10050 元 / 吨；出口 FOB 价格与上周持平。 供应端生产平稳，报价分化，成交清淡。主要产区新疆产量保持稳定，但期货价格波动加剧了现货 报价的分化：厂家或报价坚挺，或选择暂不报价， 或改善企业现金流而低于市场均价出货 。内蒙古、 四川、云南、甘肃等地现有产能多用于内部结算或长单销售，持续低价格环境压制生产积极性，目前开 工率已处于较低水平。虽有少量现货试图挺价，但市场接受度有限，整体成交延续清淡格局。随着 ...

成文日期：20251223 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:工业在 研究员：曹柏泉（从业资格号：F03122015；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019820) 工业硅期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251223），期货品种工业硅 si2605 上涨为主，收阳 线，合约开盘 8600 元/吨，最高触及 8810 元/吨，最低下探 8595 元 /吨，收盘价 8780 元/吨，今日成交量小幅上涨。全日成交量为 351425 手，持仓量为 213776 手。 1.2 品种价格 工业硅期货 12 个合约，品种持仓量 401013 手，较上一交易日 减少 15701 手，其中活跃合约 si2605，持仓量减少 7830 手。 2.1 基差数据 近 10 个交易日,活跃合约工业硅 si2605 基差走强,当日工业 硅不通氧 553#报价 9250 元/吨, 当日基差为 470 元/吨,期货合约较 前一日收盘价上涨 185 元/吨。 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 工业硅 si2605分时图 ...

工业硅日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现：工业硅期货价格基本回吐昨日涨幅。Si2601 收盘价 9075 元/吨，跌幅 2.37%，成交量 574345 手，持仓量 273978 手，净减 32691 手。 现货价格：现货价格小幅上调，553#价格区间 9300-9500 元/吨，421#价格区间 9700-10050 元/吨。 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of industrial silicon will shrink next week as the dry - season production cuts in Southwest China are more significant, despite the复产 expectations in Northwest China [2] - The downstream demand for industrial silicon is diverse. Organic silicon maintains a rigid - demand state but has limited consumption upside due to the sluggish terminal market. The short - term weekly production of polysilicon is still high, but there are expectations of production cuts, which may reduce the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the aluminum alloy industry is stable but has limited marginal impact on prices [2] - Industrial silicon follows the polysilicon trend and remains stable. It is expected to have a higher probability of oscillating upward in the future. It is recommended to go long on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,195 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the main contract position is 262,136 hands, down 8,823 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 64,101 hands, up 1,755 hands; the GZEE warehouse receipts are 45,936 hands, down 143 hands; the basis between the December and January industrial silicon contracts is 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) are 410 yuan/ton, 2,410 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 70,232.72 tons, an increase of 1,939.85 tons; the monthly export volume is 602.27 tons, a decrease of 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 21,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.95 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.26%, an increase of 0.7%; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1,776,000 tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On November 11, 2025, Hesheng Silicon Industry announced that Fuda Industrial plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 27.0705 million shares (2.29% of the total share capital) in the next three months for its own capital needs [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated narrowly, with the Si2601 closing at 9020 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.06%, a trading volume of 276,196 lots, and an open interest of 232,849 lots, a net decrease of 9,304 lots [4]. - Spot prices were slightly raised and then stabilized, with the 553 price ranging from 9,000 to 9,400 yuan/ton and the 421 price ranging from 9,600 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. - In November, the southwest production areas are expected to enter the seasonal production - reduction stage. Sichuan and Yunnan produced over 90,000 tons in October, compared with 64,200 tons in the same period last year. However, the northern production areas have an expected increase in production. The current supply - demand imbalance has not been reversed, and the actual production reduction after profit repair remains to be observed. Spot prices are generally stable, and the 01 price is in a convergent oscillation stage, still operating within the adjustment range after August [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The Si2601 closed at 9020 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 276,196 lots and an open interest of 232,849 lots, a net decrease of 9,304 lots [4]. - Spot prices were slightly raised and then stabilized, with the 553 price ranging from 9,000 to 9,400 yuan/ton and the 421 price ranging from 9,600 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 6th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the GZEE was 46,281 lots, a net increase of 86 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - On October 31st, the industrial silicon market inventory was 447,700 tons, a weekly increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.59% [5]. - In September, the industrial silicon export volume was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. From January to September, the cumulative industrial silicon export volume was 491,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 61,500 tons [5].

Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 04, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as industrial silicon [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices opened low, then trended lower, and finally rebounded weakly. The Si2601 contract closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38%, with a trading volume of 226,808 lots and an open interest of 228,268 lots, a net decrease of 297 lots [4] - The price range of 553 industrial silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 is 9550 - 9950 yuan/ton [5] Outlook - Industrial silicon enterprises have insufficient willingness to actively cut production. Supply in October will exceed about 430,000 tons, and there is no incremental demand. The loose supply - demand situation means there is no inventory reduction drive, and social inventory still exceeds 440,000 tons [5] - Spot prices have limited guidance on short - term futures prices. The expected support in the fourth quarter mainly comes from rising costs in the southwest and active production cuts, but the effectiveness of the positive factors remains to be seen [5] - The industrial silicon market has limited strong drivers. The futures price is still within the adjustment range since August. In November, warehouse receipts need to be concentrated for cancellation and delivery, which will intensify short - term price fluctuations, but the upside resistance is still obvious [5] Group 3: Market News - On November 03, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 46,161 lots, a net decrease of 1,092 lots from the previous trading day [6] - On October 31, the industrial silicon market inventory was 447,700 tons, a weekly increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.59% [6] - In September, the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 61,500 tons [6]

Core Insights - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a divergence with "futures prices rising and spot prices remaining stable" [1] - The main contract price for industrial silicon increased from 9060 CNY/ton to 9170 CNY/ton, a rise of 110 CNY/ton over the past week [1] - The overall national industrial silicon price remained stable at 9174 CNY/ton as of October 29 [1] Price Analysis - The prices for different grades of industrial silicon are as follows: 553 at 8708 CNY/ton, 441 at 9055 CNY/ton, and 421 at 9658 CNY/ton, all showing stability [1] - Regional prices are stable with Xinjiang at 8798 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 9753 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 9950 CNY/ton [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic industrial silicon production capacity is being released steadily, with companies showing a strong reluctance to sell, leading to a relatively tight supply situation [1] - Demand from downstream industries such as organic silicon and aluminum alloys is primarily focused on meeting rigid needs, with no large-scale stockpiling observed [1] - Expectations of production cuts in the polysilicon sector may influence market dynamics [1] Market Outlook - In November, the market is expected to face both supply contraction and demand decline [2] - The rise in futures prices may alleviate some pressure on the spot market, while the reluctance to sell in the southwestern region will help maintain a tight balance between supply and demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in industrial silicon prices is primarily supported by cost factors and optimistic demand expectations, despite a tight supply-demand balance in the market [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon rose from 8905 CNY/ton to 9020 CNY/ton, an increase of 115 CNY/ton during the week of September 18 to September 24 [1]. - The national comprehensive price for industrial silicon reached 9207 CNY/ton, up by 31 CNY/ton from the previous week [1]. - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw varied price changes: 553 at 8757 CNY/ton (+49 CNY/ton), 441 at 9092 CNY/ton (unchanged), and 421 at 9672 CNY/ton (+14 CNY/ton) [1]. Supply Factors - The upcoming dry season in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to lead to rising electricity prices, which, along with anticipated increases in silicon coal prices, is strengthening producers' willingness to maintain higher prices [2]. - Although this situation is contributing to inventory accumulation, it is also providing strong support for prices [2]. Demand Factors - Organic silicon companies are showing intentions to raise prices due to short-term impacts from southern weather conditions [2]. - Despite strong pricing in the polysilicon market, its actual demand pull remains limited, with companies still in a wait-and-see mode regarding production resumption [2]. Market Dynamics - The industrial silicon market is currently in a phase of negotiation between upstream and downstream players, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand [2]. - The situation of strong expectations but weak realities has not fundamentally changed, but it is anticipated that the arrival of the dry season will exacerbate cost increases and supply-demand tensions [2].