Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Rare Metal ETF - The rare metal ETF has a turnover rate of 4.69% during trading hours, with a transaction volume of 141 million yuan [3] - As of October 9, the average daily transaction volume of the rare metal ETF over the past week is 622 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest scale of the rare metal ETF reached 3.01 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF has seen a significant increase in shares, with a growth of 278 million shares over the past two weeks, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The net inflow of funds into the rare metal ETF is 358 million yuan [3] - Over the past three years, the net value of the rare metal ETF has increased by 17.47% [3] - The highest monthly return since inception is 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being five months and the longest increase percentage being 66.25% [3] - The average return during the increasing months is 8.60% [3] Group 2: Market Outlook and Demand for Industrial Metals - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle is favorable for the industrial metal sector, particularly for tin, which has limited supply growth and ongoing supply disruptions, leading to an expected increase in tin prices [3] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may initiate another rate cut in September 2025, which, along with gradually easing global liquidity and improving domestic macro expectations, will benefit industrial metals like tin and copper [3] - The release of terminal demand is expected to benefit downstream processing products, with rare earth magnetic materials likely to see profit expansion due to increasing price differentials domestically and internationally [3] Group 3: Strategic Small Metals and Market Dynamics - Limited reserves, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity of strategic small metals are leading to intensified supply-demand conflicts, especially with rapid growth in downstream demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military [4] - The price of small metals is expected to continue its upward trend due to ongoing resource scarcity, demand structure upgrades, and policy adjustments [4] - Companies with resource reserve advantages, technical barriers, and compliant export channels are expected to benefit continuously [4] Group 4: Top Holdings in Rare Metal Index - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, Salt Lake Potash, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, China Rare Earth, Zhongmin Resources, Shenghe Resources, and Western Superconducting, collectively accounting for 59.91% of the index [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector led the market, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) reaching an intraday increase of 1.87% and currently up by 1.15% [1] - The ETF saw a net subscription of 600,000 units, with a total net inflow of 11.29 million yuan over the past three days [1] - Key stocks such as Innovation New Materials, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Yunnan Zhenye hit the daily limit, while Huayu Mining rose over 8% [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the inclusion of 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a tax rate of 50%, effective immediately [3] - This expansion of tariffs is expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets, with gold projected to rise in value [3] - The small metal sector, particularly tungsten, is experiencing price increases due to tightening supply and strong emerging demand [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the non-ferrous metal sector will benefit from monetary easing due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic production optimization efforts [4] - The industrial metal sector is currently undervalued, indicating potential for upward correction [4] - The supply-demand balance for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is tightening, driven by limited supply and strong demand from emerging industries [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which includes a diversified portfolio of metals such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium [5] - This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting strong performance in precious and industrial metals [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising gold prices, which have reached new highs, and suggests focusing on strategic minor metal investment opportunities due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain dynamics [5][23]. - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.43% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.46 percentage points [2][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 2.43% from April 14 to April 25, 2025, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [2][13]. - Energy metals (4.34%), industrial metals (3.84%), and precious metals (1.74%) showed the highest gains, while minor metals and new metal materials declined by -1.66% and -1.78%, respectively [2][13]. Precious Metals - As of April 25, COMEX gold closed at $3,330.20 per ounce, up 2.31% over two weeks and 24.67% year-to-date [3][22]. - COMEX silver closed at $33.34 per ounce, increasing by 3.56% over two weeks and 11.19% year-to-date [3][22]. - The report notes that geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations are driving gold prices, with a potential for short-term corrections but long-term support factors remaining strong [23][26]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,364 per ton, up 2.00% over two weeks and 7.81% year-to-date [30]. - LME aluminum closed at $2,412 per ton, increasing by 5.56% over two weeks but down 4.89% year-to-date [30]. - The report highlights that copper prices are influenced by tariff policy changes and long-term demand from the renewable energy sector [30][34]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price reached 146,000 CNY per ton, up 1.74% over two weeks and 2.28% year-to-date [37]. - Antimony ingot (99.65%) price was 237,500 CNY per ton, down 1.04% over two weeks but up 66.08% year-to-date [37]. - The report indicates that antimony prices are supported by supply constraints and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector [38]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 171.62, down 5.28% over two weeks but up 4.79% year-to-date [50][51]. - The report notes that the market is experiencing downward pressure due to reduced demand from key industries amid a slowing global economy [51]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices for electrolytic cobalt averaged 240,500 CNY per ton, up 2.78% over two weeks and 41.06% year-to-date [57]. - Lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade) averaged 69,800 CNY per ton, down 2.51% over two weeks and down 7.06% year-to-date [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strategic minor metals due to changing supply dynamics and geopolitical factors, recommending companies involved in these sectors [5][51].