在高端制造与前沿科技双轮驱动下，小金属赛道景气度持续攀升。10月中旬以来，稀土、钼、锑、钽、 铌等战略金属的市场关注度持续提升。 "从钽电容到超导铌材，再到核聚变装置，小金属正深入高端制造与前沿科技的每一个环节。"一位行业 分析师表示。 从政策面看，今年9月，工信部等八部门联合印发的《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》提出，到2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增长1.5%左 右。 方案还提出一系列2025年至2026年有色金属行业稳增长主要目标：经济效益保持向好态势，十种有色金 属产量年均增长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展，再生金属产量突破2000万吨， 高端产品供给能力不断增强，绿色低碳、数字化发展水平持续提升。 从基本面看，小金属供给端持续收紧。 近期，可控核聚变作为未来能源的重要方向，在资本市场引发高度关注。可控核聚变也为钽、铌等金属 带来了潜在应用市场。记者从东方钽业了解到，参股公司西材院研制的热压ITER铌材已通过认证，这 些铌材可用于制造超导磁体的关键材料。 "在半导体领域，我们生产的高纯钽粉、高纯钽锭、12英寸钽靶坯已实现 ...

从政策面看，今年9月，工信部等八部门联合印发的《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》提出，到2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增长1.5%左 右。 方案还提出一系列2025年至2026年有色金属行业稳增长主要目标：经济效益保持向好态势，十种有色金 属产量年均增长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展，再生金属产量突破2000万吨， 高端产品供给能力不断增强，绿色低碳、数字化发展水平持续提升。 从基本面看，小金属供给端持续收紧。 过去10年，受产能退出、投资不足等因素影响，全球钨、钼、铋、锗、锑等产量震荡下行。供需偏紧 下，相关小金属掀起提价潮。 以稀土为例，北方稀土10月10日公告，将今年第四季度稀土精矿价格上调至不含税26205元/吨，较上一 季度涨幅达37%。北方稀土发布的2025年前三季度业绩预告显示，公司预计前三季度实现归母净利润 15.1亿元—15.7亿元，同比增长272.54%—287.34%；预计实现扣非净利润13.3亿元—13.9亿元，同比增 长399.90%—422.46%。 "战略小金属的'不可替代性'正日益凸显。"业内人士称 ...

（来源：智超讲财商） 事件：10月11日，刚果发布具体配额数量，配额总量和921宣布的数量一致。 - 所有冶炼厂没有拿到配额，华友和盛屯也是矿端拿到了配额，其他国内冶炼厂均没有拿到配额； -现货原材料会极度紧张，未来洛钼只能拿配额来保供两个大客户，所有的短单和小客户都无法供货； -后续的变量：基础配额8.7万吨，总量配额是9.66万吨，剩余的10%是战略配额，是可以进行调节，这个调节估计主要看价格的变化和寻租了。 1、配额分配情况 全部分配给矿山和政府平台、冶炼厂无配额。1）矿企：洛钼（26年3.12万吨）、嘉能可（1.33万吨）、欧亚资源（1.02万吨）占据主要份额，其他中资企 业包括盛屯矿业（1680吨）、华友钴业（1080吨）等。2）政府平台：EGC、STL、ARECOMS合计26年1.67万吨配额。3）冶炼厂：无直接配额，可与政 府平台合作获得配额。 - 洛钼：2026年预计是3.12万吨，占去年产量的27%，基础配额的 35.9%，总额配额的32.5%，2025年剩余时间出口配额量6500吨左右； -GLC：最后两个半月的占比是22%，约为3925吨，预计明年的出口总量1.88万吨； -欧亚资源：Q ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., which may elevate demand for safe-haven assets like gold and strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten [5][9]. - The copper market is experiencing supply disruptions, with prices trending upward due to tight supply conditions [5]. - Aluminum demand is expected to continue, with potential opportunities for investment following market corrections [5]. - The strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten is emphasized due to recent export controls and geopolitical developments [5][9]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - Supply disruptions are ongoing, with LME copper prices at $10,735 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.9% [5]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is negative, indicating tight supply [5]. - Companies with rich copper reserves are recommended for investment [9]. Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum prices reached $2,800 per ton, up 3.6% week-on-week [5]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain stable [5]. - Investment opportunities are suggested for companies in the aluminum sector following market corrections [9]. Gold Sector - Gold prices are rising, with SHFE gold at 901.6 RMB per gram, up 3.1% week-on-week [5]. - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions may enhance gold's strategic position as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Investment in gold-related companies is recommended due to their undervalued resource potential [9]. Rare Metals Sector - Rare earth prices remain stable, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 683,000 RMB per ton [5]. - Recent export controls on rare earths have heightened their strategic importance amid U.S.-China tensions [5][9]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies involved in rare earth production [9]. Steel Sector - Steel prices are stable, with SHFE rebar at 3,103 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [6]. - The report notes frequent disruptions in iron ore supply negotiations, which may impact future prices [6]. - Companies with high self-sufficiency in iron ore are recommended for investment [9].

截至2025年10月10日 09:53，中证稀有金属主题指数下跌0.51%。成分股方面涨跌互现，天和磁材领涨6.28%，金力永磁上涨4.58%，云路股份上涨4.40%；华 友钴业领跌，铂科新材、天齐锂业跟跌。稀有金属ETF(562800)下修调整。拉长时间看，截至2025年10月9日，稀有金属ETF近2周累计上涨15.78%。 流动性方面，稀有金属ETF盘中换手4.69%，成交1.41亿元。拉长时间看，截至10月9日，稀有金属ETF近1周日均成交6.22亿元，排名可比基金第一。 规模方面，稀有金属ETF最新规模达30.10亿元，创成立以来新高，位居可比基金第一。份额方面，稀有金属ETF近2周份额增长2.78亿份，实现显著增长， 新增份额位居可比基金第一。资金流入方面，稀有金属ETF最新资金净流入3.58亿元。 国泰海通证券认为，美联储开启降息周期，利好工业金属板块，就锡而言，锡矿增量有限且供给扰动持续，锡价中枢有望抬升。同时市场预期2025年9月美 联储有望再度开启降息随着全球流动性逐步宽松，叠加国内宏观预期向上，内外需逐步改善，利好锡、铜等工业金属。随着终端需求释放，利好下游深加工 品，如稀土磁材有望在海内 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector led the market, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) reaching an intraday increase of 1.87% and currently up by 1.15% [1] - The ETF saw a net subscription of 600,000 units, with a total net inflow of 11.29 million yuan over the past three days [1] - Key stocks such as Innovation New Materials, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Yunnan Zhenye hit the daily limit, while Huayu Mining rose over 8% [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the inclusion of 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a tax rate of 50%, effective immediately [3] - This expansion of tariffs is expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets, with gold projected to rise in value [3] - The small metal sector, particularly tungsten, is experiencing price increases due to tightening supply and strong emerging demand [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the non-ferrous metal sector will benefit from monetary easing due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic production optimization efforts [4] - The industrial metal sector is currently undervalued, indicating potential for upward correction [4] - The supply-demand balance for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is tightening, driven by limited supply and strong demand from emerging industries [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which includes a diversified portfolio of metals such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium [5] - This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting strong performance in precious and industrial metals [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising gold prices, which have reached new highs, and suggests focusing on strategic minor metal investment opportunities due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain dynamics [5][23]. - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.43% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.46 percentage points [2][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 2.43% from April 14 to April 25, 2025, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [2][13]. - Energy metals (4.34%), industrial metals (3.84%), and precious metals (1.74%) showed the highest gains, while minor metals and new metal materials declined by -1.66% and -1.78%, respectively [2][13]. Precious Metals - As of April 25, COMEX gold closed at $3,330.20 per ounce, up 2.31% over two weeks and 24.67% year-to-date [3][22]. - COMEX silver closed at $33.34 per ounce, increasing by 3.56% over two weeks and 11.19% year-to-date [3][22]. - The report notes that geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations are driving gold prices, with a potential for short-term corrections but long-term support factors remaining strong [23][26]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,364 per ton, up 2.00% over two weeks and 7.81% year-to-date [30]. - LME aluminum closed at $2,412 per ton, increasing by 5.56% over two weeks but down 4.89% year-to-date [30]. - The report highlights that copper prices are influenced by tariff policy changes and long-term demand from the renewable energy sector [30][34]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price reached 146,000 CNY per ton, up 1.74% over two weeks and 2.28% year-to-date [37]. - Antimony ingot (99.65%) price was 237,500 CNY per ton, down 1.04% over two weeks but up 66.08% year-to-date [37]. - The report indicates that antimony prices are supported by supply constraints and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector [38]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 171.62, down 5.28% over two weeks but up 4.79% year-to-date [50][51]. - The report notes that the market is experiencing downward pressure due to reduced demand from key industries amid a slowing global economy [51]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices for electrolytic cobalt averaged 240,500 CNY per ton, up 2.78% over two weeks and 41.06% year-to-date [57]. - Lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade) averaged 69,800 CNY per ton, down 2.51% over two weeks and down 7.06% year-to-date [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strategic minor metals due to changing supply dynamics and geopolitical factors, recommending companies involved in these sectors [5][51].