证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20260302 3 月度金股：内外博弈与应对 2026 年 03 月 02 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 3 月，市场将围绕内部政策窗口与外部事件冲击的双重变量展开博弈 内部政策方面，今年两会总量政策预期偏平，结构性亮点值得关注。从历 史经验看，两会行情表现取决于政策预期差，大致分为几种情形：一是政 策大年，如 16 年供给侧改革、19 年减税、21 年双碳，会中会后以上涨为 主；二是政策预期落空或意外边际收紧，如 18 年去杠杆、22 年稳增长不 及预期，市场相对承压；三是市场对总量政策预期不高，但出现显著产业 亮点，如 24 年低空经济、25 年深海科技。对于今年，更可能演绎第三种 情形：市场对总量政策的预期相对温和，博弈或有限，因此两会期间大盘 指数层面大概率维持平稳震荡；市场对于产业政策的关注度较高，特别是 "十五五"规划潜在的重点方向，若两会期间出现超预期的表述或催化， 相关主题有望获得积极反馈。 外部因素方面，美伊冲突骤然升级为市场增添新的变数。本次冲突烈度较 高，美军直接参战并部署大规模力量，中东局势进入"白热化"阶段，后 续焦点在 ...

石油ETF鹏华(159697.SZ)补涨修复，前期市场风格切换导致周期板块调整，化工、石油等顺周期品种被 错杀后呈现资金回流迹象；同时国际油价受区域因素及需求预期支撑，带动油气产业链个股普涨，成分 股中杰瑞股份、中曼石油等涨幅居前。此外，伊朗指出不会放弃铀浓缩和导弹。 截至02月10日10:17，石油ETF鹏华(159697.SZ)上涨0.97%，其关联指数国证油气(399439.SZ)上涨 0.89%；主要成分股中，杰瑞股份上涨4.88%，中国海油上涨1.79%，中国石油上涨1.30%，中曼石油上 涨4.28%，石化油服上涨2.30%。 关联产品： 石油ETF鹏华（159697），联接基金（A类 019827，C类 019828，I类 022861） 关联个股： 中国石油（601857）、中国海油（600938）、中国石化（600028）、杰瑞股份（002353）、广汇能源 （600256）、招商轮船（601872）、中远海能（600026）、洲际油气（600759）、九丰能源 （605090）、新奥股份（600803） 国盛证券观察到印度扩产炼钢提振焦煤需求，同时全球能源市场动态显示原油及天然气领域政策调 ...

Core Insights - The recent launch of the China Europe Value Navigation Mixed Fund achieved a net subscription amount of 1.97 billion yuan within just one day of its offering, indicating strong demand for equity funds despite a volatile A-share market [1][2][3] Fund Performance and Trends - The China Europe Value Navigation Fund's subscription limit was set at 2 billion yuan, and it successfully raised 1.97 billion yuan by the end of its first day of offering [2] - The fund manager, Lan Xiaokang, has a strong track record, with his managed funds achieving significant returns, including a 170.24% return for the China Europe Dividend Enjoy Fund [2] - The performance of newly launched equity funds has been notable, with several funds achieving over 20% net value growth in the past month, particularly in technology and resource sectors [1][4][5] Market Dynamics - Despite the A-share market's stagnation, the issuance of equity funds remains robust, with 30 public funds opening for subscription in the week of October 20-26, 2023, and equity funds making up 76.67% of this total [3] - Over 10 actively managed equity funds have raised more than 1 billion yuan since the third quarter of this year, with some exceeding 2 billion yuan [3] Sector Focus - Technology and resource-themed funds have shown strong performance, with specific funds like Taikang Resource Selection and Huaxia Quantitative Stock Selection achieving net value growth rates of 23.28% and 25.2%, respectively [4][5] - The disparity in performance among newly launched funds is significant, with some funds experiencing negative returns while others, particularly those focused on technology and AI, have excelled [5][6] Future Outlook - Fund managers remain optimistic about the future of technology investments, emphasizing the potential of cyclical stocks and opportunities that combine consumption and technology [1][5] - Morgan Asset Management highlights strong performance in sectors like semiconductors and AI infrastructure, while also noting the market's current consolidation phase [6]

Core Insights - The Central European Value Navigation Mixed Fund completed its fundraising in just one day, achieving a net subscription amount of 1.97 billion yuan, reflecting strong demand for newly launched active equity funds [1][2]. Fund Performance and Manager Insights - The fund's manager, Lan Xiaokang, has a strong track record, with the highest return of 170.24% from the Central European Dividend Enjoyment Fund [2]. - Lan Xiaokang emphasizes the potential for both traditional industries and new productive forces to perform well, particularly focusing on leading companies in traditional sectors [2]. Market Trends and Fund Issuance - The recent success of the Central European Value Navigation Fund is indicative of a broader trend, with 30 public funds opening for subscription in the week of October 20-26, 2023, and 76.67% of them being equity funds [3]. - Since the third quarter, over 10 active equity funds have raised more than 1 billion yuan, with some exceeding 2 billion yuan [3]. Performance Disparities Among New Funds - New funds have shown significant performance disparities, particularly in technology and resource sectors, with some funds achieving over 20% net value growth in just over a month [4][5]. - Among the newly established funds, the highest net value growth rates include 25.2% for the China International Selection Fund and 23.28% for the Taikang Resource Selection Fund [4]. Investment Focus and Future Outlook - Fund managers remain optimistic about technology investments, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and AI, while also highlighting the investment value of cyclical stocks [5]. - There is a divergence of opinions regarding market style shifts, with some analysts suggesting a rebalancing between technology and value styles rather than a clear switch [5].

Group 1 - The stock market has experienced significant fluctuations post-holiday, with A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks all declining, prompting public fund analysts to suggest a defensive strategy in Q4 to lock in annual performance [1][2] - Historical trends indicate that sectors with high gains in the first three quarters typically underperform in Q4, as institutional funds tend to secure profits or shift to lower-risk investments to mitigate high volatility [1][2] Group 2 - The adjustment of margin financing rates has had a minor impact on the market, with certain stocks seeing their financing rates drop to zero due to high static P/E ratios, affecting market sentiment but not being the primary cause of the recent downturn [2][4] - Fund managers are accelerating portfolio adjustments in October to preserve annual returns, with a focus on balancing sector allocations and identifying rotation opportunities [4][5] Group 3 - There is a growing emphasis on technology and innovation, with expectations that companies with strong technological barriers and commercialization capabilities will validate market expectations through solid performance [3][7] - The shift in fund positioning towards cyclical sectors such as consumer goods, resources, and finance is anticipated, as these sectors are expected to outperform in Q4 based on historical performance data [6][7] Group 4 - The market is likely to see a dual-driven pattern of technology and cyclical sectors, with traditional resource stocks being viewed as a favorable investment opportunity amid improving liquidity and policy expectations [7][8] - The focus is shifting from emotionally driven market movements to fundamental growth, particularly for innovative pharmaceutical companies with strong product pipelines and market potential [7][8]

Core Viewpoints - The current market is characterized by a systematic "slow bull" trend, with a "slow but steady short-term offensive" showing no clear signs of stopping [1][6] - The next phase of investment strategy should focus on long positions in cyclical sectors [1][23] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3800 points, with the STAR Market Index rising by 8% on August 22, indicating strong bullish sentiment [3] - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of 2.58 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining 3.49% for the week, marking its best weekly performance of the year [3][9] Sector Analysis - Citic Securities suggests focusing on sectors with strong earnings support as the market enters a high-level consolidation phase, with an emphasis on technology and defense industries [5][6] - Zheshang Securities recommends a balanced allocation in "big finance + broad technology," including banking, military, computing, media, and electronic sectors, while also paying attention to the real estate sector [6] - Fangzheng Securities advocates for increasing exposure to technology growth assets, particularly in AI, consumer electronics, and military sectors, as these areas show improving performance [7] Economic Indicators - The DeepSeek-V3.1 model's release has accelerated the domestic chip development process, attracting significant capital attention to related companies [3] - Morgan Stanley estimates that potential asset rotation could inject an additional 14 trillion yuan into the stock market, equivalent to 16% of the circulating market value [3] Investment Recommendations - Huatai Securities suggests shifting aggressive positions towards cyclical sectors, prioritizing U.S. small caps and emerging markets, while also considering inflation-hedging assets like gold and TIPS [23] - The robotics industry is expected to see continued growth driven by policy support, technological advancements, and successful commercial applications [11] - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a dual boost from fundamental improvements and favorable policies, with domestic biotech firms expected to capture a significant share of the global market [12]

Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector led the market, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) reaching an intraday increase of 1.87% and currently up by 1.15% [1] - The ETF saw a net subscription of 600,000 units, with a total net inflow of 11.29 million yuan over the past three days [1] - Key stocks such as Innovation New Materials, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Yunnan Zhenye hit the daily limit, while Huayu Mining rose over 8% [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the inclusion of 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a tax rate of 50%, effective immediately [3] - This expansion of tariffs is expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets, with gold projected to rise in value [3] - The small metal sector, particularly tungsten, is experiencing price increases due to tightening supply and strong emerging demand [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the non-ferrous metal sector will benefit from monetary easing due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic production optimization efforts [4] - The industrial metal sector is currently undervalued, indicating potential for upward correction [4] - The supply-demand balance for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is tightening, driven by limited supply and strong demand from emerging industries [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which includes a diversified portfolio of metals such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium [5] - This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [5]