Core Viewpoint - The periodic adjustment of A-share indices took effect on June 16, 2025, impacting various indices including the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, 180, 380, and the ChiNext indices, among others [1][3]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - A total of 187 sample stocks were replaced across six major cross-market indices, with the CSI 300 index changing 7 stocks, the CSI 500 changing 50 stocks, and the CSI 1000 changing 100 stocks [3][16]. - The newly added stocks include notable companies such as Softcom Power and AVIC Chengfei [3][20]. Group 2: Sector Representation - The adjustments reflect a shift towards enhancing representation in sectors like information technology, communication services, and industrials, with the CSI 500 index seeing a 1.82% increase in the weight of the information technology sector [16][19]. - The manufacturing sector remains dominant in the Shenzhen Component Index, accounting for 73% of the sample companies, while the ChiNext index emphasizes strategic emerging industries with a weight of 92% [19][20]. Group 3: New Index Launch - The newly launched SSE 580 index focuses on smaller-cap stocks within the Shanghai market, comprising 580 securities that reflect the performance of smaller listed companies [20].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has become a strong performer in the stock market post-Dragon Boat Festival, driven by high dividend yields, increased allocations from insurance funds, and public fund reforms, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 10 trillion yuan [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 3, the banking sector saw a significant rise, with the Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank hitting its daily limit, leading to a collective increase in bank stocks, with many reaching new highs [3][4]. - The banking index rose by 2.5% on that day, closing with a 1.98% increase, making it the fourth-best performing sector among 31 industries [3][4]. - Year-to-date, the banking sector's market capitalization increased by approximately 630 billion yuan, with an overall rise of nearly 10% despite the broader market declining over 1% [7]. Group 2: Index Inclusion Impact - The strong performance of certain bank stocks is attributed to the inclusion of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank in major market indices, which has sparked speculative trading [4][5]. - The adjustment of indices, effective June 16, is expected to attract significant passive fund inflows due to the large scale of ETFs linked to these indices [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Trends and Investment Sentiment - The banking sector has been favored by investors due to its low valuations and high dividend yields, with many banks offering yields above 4% [11][12]. - The trend of insurance funds increasing their holdings in bank stocks is seen as a response to the "asset shortage" environment, with significant investments in H-shares of major banks [9][11]. - Analysts suggest that the current interest rate environment and asset scarcity will likely lead to a recovery in the price-to-book (PB) ratios of quality banks, potentially exceeding 1 [12][13]. Group 4: Caution Against Speculation - Despite the positive sentiment, analysts warn that the recent price increases may not be sustainable and emphasize the importance of returning to fundamental analysis for bank stock investments [1][12]. - The market's focus on index adjustments and speculative trading may not align with long-term investment strategies, highlighting the need for caution among individual investors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance post the Dragon Boat Festival, with significant gains in both A-shares and H-shares, driven by the inclusion of certain banks in core market indices and a favorable low-interest-rate environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 3, the banking sector saw a collective rise, with the A-share market capitalization of banks exceeding 10 trillion yuan, marking a 630 billion yuan increase from the beginning of the year [6][8]. - The banking index rose by 2.5% on June 3, closing with a 1.98% increase, ranking fourth among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][3]. - Individual stocks such as Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank reached new highs, with the former hitting the daily limit up [2][3]. Group 2: Index Inclusion Impact - The strong performance of the banking sector is attributed to the inclusion of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank in major indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 180 [3][4]. - The adjustment of index samples is expected to attract significant passive fund inflows, as these indices are closely linked to large-scale ETF products [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The banking sector has become a favored choice for risk-averse investors, with discussions around the attractiveness of bank stocks compared to traditional savings and investment products intensifying [1][9]. - The sector has seen a nearly 10% increase year-to-date, contrasting with a decline in the broader market [6][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current investment trend is supported by a combination of high dividend yields and a shift in institutional investment strategies towards banking stocks [8][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The low-interest-rate environment and ongoing asset scarcity are expected to sustain the appeal of bank stocks, with analysts predicting a potential recovery in price-to-book ratios for quality banks [10][11]. - The anticipated reforms in public funds are likely to further enhance the allocation towards banking stocks, contributing to continued price increases [8][9].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Comprehensive Impact Coefficient - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to quantify the combined impact of multiple index adjustments on individual stocks, considering the overlap and exchange of sample stocks across different indices[23][24] - **Model Construction Process**: The comprehensive impact coefficient is defined as follows: $$ effect_{\_}total_{s} = \sum_{i=1}^{n} \frac{wt_{\_}chg_{s\_i} \times fund_{\_}size_{i}}{amount_{\_}avg_{s,20}} $$ - \( wt_{\_}chg_{s\_i} \): Weight change of stock \( s \) in index \( i \) - \( fund_{\_}size_{i} \): Fund size tracking index \( i \) - \( amount_{\_}avg_{s,20} \): 20-day average trading volume of stock \( s \)[23][24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the correlation between the comprehensive impact coefficient and the adjustment effect, making it a valuable tool for identifying stocks with significant adjustment impacts[29] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Comprehensive Impact Coefficient - **Key Metrics**: - Stocks with a coefficient above 1: Average excess return per period = 3.82% - Stocks with a coefficient above 2: Average excess return per period = 5.13%[2][16] - **Historical Performance**: - December 2020: Coefficient > 2, average absolute return = 13.75%, excess return = 14.64% - June 2021: Coefficient > 2, average absolute return = 10.67%, excess return = 11.33% - December 2021: Coefficient > 2, average absolute return = 6.64%, excess return = 2.83% - June 2022: Coefficient > 2, average absolute return = 10.29%, excess return = 5.02% - December 2022: Coefficient > 2, average absolute return = 8.33%, excess return = 3.40% - June 2023: Coefficient > 2, average absolute return = 0.99%, excess return = 0.90% - December 2023: Coefficient > 2, average absolute return = 4.96%, excess return = 6.55% - June 2024: Coefficient > 2, average absolute return = -1.45%, excess return = 0.57% - December 2024: Coefficient > 2, average absolute return = 2.28%, excess return = 0.96%[13][14][15] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Weight Rules - **Factor Construction Idea**: Weight rules are applied to ensure that the influence of individual stocks or sectors within an index remains balanced and aligned with the index's design objectives[25][26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Different indices impose specific constraints on individual stock weights, such as: - Maximum weight for a single stock (e.g., 10%, 15%) - Combined weight limits for the top N stocks (e.g., top 5 stocks ≤ 40%) - Sector weight alignment with free-float market capitalization[26][27] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Comprehensive Impact Coefficient (Factor-Level Results) - **Top Stocks by Impact Coefficient (as of May 30, 2025)**: - **Stock: 601825 (沪农商行)** - Net Impact: 28.98 billion - Daily Average Turnover: 2.07 billion - Free-Float Market Cap: 493.66 billion - Impact Coefficient: 13.98 - **Stock: 601077 (渝农商行)** - Net Impact: 25.08 billion - Daily Average Turnover: 4.15 billion - Free-Float Market Cap: 427.52 billion - Impact Coefficient: 6.04 - **Stock: 601211 (国泰海通)** - Net Impact: 42.66 billion - Daily Average Turnover: 7.71 billion - Free-Float Market Cap: 1874.48 billion - Impact Coefficient: 5.53 - **Stock: 688608 (恒玄科技)** - Net Impact: 31.45 billion - Daily Average Turnover: 8.42 billion - Free-Float Market Cap: 283.59 billion - Impact Coefficient: 3.74[30]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 8 日 2025 年 6 月沪深指数调样预测： 中证 500 或大量纳入信息技术板块 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | 报告导读： ◼ 四月波动后，国家队再次借道指数 ETF 入市维稳，叠加社保、险资等中长期资金持续入市， 挂钩核心宽基指数的 ETF 产品规模再次扩容。截至 2025 年 5 月，挂钩上证 50、沪深 300、 中证 500 和中证 1000 指数的产品合计规模约 1.7 万亿。本次调整将于 2025 年 6 月 16 日生 效，由于近期市场波动较大，最终结果可能存在较多主观调整的成分，请以正式公告为准。 ◼ 上证 50：我们预测本次调整将涉及 2 只成分股调整，江苏银行、工业富联或将纳入上证 50；海天味业、中国中铁或将调出指数。本次调整纳入个股分别属于金融和信息技术板块， 调出个股分别属于主要消费和工业板块。预测纳入的个股近一个月平均上涨 8.88%， ...