Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown is causing significant disruptions to the tourism industry, with estimated weekly losses of approximately $1 billion [1][5]. - Major attractions in Washington, D.C., such as the National Archives and National Gallery of Art, have closed, leading to a sharp decline in visitors and negatively impacting local businesses in dining, transportation, and hospitality [3][5]. - The White House Council of Economic Advisers estimates that the shutdown could result in a weekly GDP loss of around $15 billion [5]. Group 1 - The U.S. tourism industry is experiencing weekly losses of about $1 billion due to the government shutdown [5]. - The closure of key tourist attractions in Washington, D.C., has led to a significant drop in visitor numbers, affecting local businesses [3][5]. - The potential broader economic impact includes reduced consumer confidence and spending, increased risks in aviation and national security, and overall market disorder [7].

Core Insights - The impact of missing paychecks is extending beyond individual financial distress to affect federal services that are crucial for the economy [1] Group 1 - The disruption in federal services is likely to have a broader economic impact, affecting various sectors reliant on these services [1]

Core Points - US Treasury yields experienced slight declines as investors focused on the economic situation amid the ongoing government shutdown, which has entered its fourth week [1][3] - The US federal debt is projected to reach $38 trillion by October 24, with the current total exceeding $37.96 trillion, increasing by $102.49 billion since the beginning of the month [4] - The UK government is committed to reducing borrowing costs and debt while ensuring economic growth, as stated by the Chancellor of the Exchequer [5] Group 1: US Treasury Market - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 0.9 basis points to 3.455%, the 10-year yield decreased by 1.8 basis points to 3.991%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 2.1 basis points to 4.582% [1] - The government shutdown has halted the release of key economic data, including weekly jobless claims, which may impact investor sentiment [3] - The Treasury Department issued $163 billion in two bond offerings, including $86 billion in 13-week and $77 billion in 26-week bills [7] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Economists express concerns that the prolonged government shutdown could affect quarterly GDP growth, although a temporary slowdown is anticipated [3] - The upcoming release of the delayed September CPI data is expected to provide insights into the economic health before the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting [3] - The US budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be $1.775 trillion, a decrease of $410 billion, marking the first annual decline since 2022 [3] Group 3: International Markets - In Europe, bond yields showed mixed trends, with German and French bonds primarily declining, while Italian bonds experienced slight fluctuations [4] - The UK Chancellor emphasized the need for transparency regarding current fiscal challenges while reaffirming commitment to fiscal rules [5] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Japanese market reacted positively to political stability, with the Nikkei index reaching a historical high [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. government shutdown, initially expected to last only two to three weeks, is evolving into a significant crisis that may extend into November, with analysts predicting it could become the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history [1] Duration of Shutdown - The shutdown has already lasted 20 days, with the longest previous shutdown being 35 days during Trump's first term [1] - Market predictions indicate the shutdown could last approximately 41 days, a significant increase from earlier forecasts of just 14 days [1][2] - Key dates include November 1, when the "Obamacare" enrollment begins, which may pressure both parties to reach an agreement [2] Factors Influencing Resolution - The deadlock is primarily due to disagreements over including "Obamacare" subsidy extensions in the funding bill, with the actual deadline for subsidy action being December 31 [2] - Travel delays due to personnel shortages at airports could also pressure negotiations, as TSA and air traffic control staff are working without pay [2] - Analysts suggest that public sentiment regarding travel issues or rising healthcare costs could serve as potential breakthroughs for ending the shutdown [2] Economic Impact - Economists estimate that the shutdown could result in a GDP loss of approximately 0.1% to 0.2% per week [3][4] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 3.8%, indicating that while the immediate impact seems small, prolonged shutdowns could lead to larger economic consequences [4] - Over 4,100 layoff notices have been issued, with potential final numbers exceeding 10,000, although a federal judge has temporarily blocked these layoffs [4] Market Sentiment - A poll indicated that 47% of respondents are most concerned about the economic impact of the shutdown, surpassing concerns about travel disruptions and unpaid employee wages [4] - Analysts from Wolfe Research remain optimistic, suggesting that as long as military personnel continue to receive pay, the long-term impacts of the shutdown may be limited [5] - Independent economists warn that while a recession may not be imminent, the shutdown could have lasting effects on an already fragile economy [5]

在本月之前，美国政府停摆曾被普遍认为可能是为时两到三周的短期事件，但如今正演变为一场彻头彻 尾的华盛顿政治危机，并极可能延续至11月。 Beacon政策顾问公司分析师在最新报告中指出，"结束政府停摆需要白宫参与协议谈判或民主党让步。 而目前两者均无迹象，此次停摆或将跻身史上最长的联邦政府停摆之列。" 截至本周五，美国政府的此轮停摆已经持续了17天。而此前最长的停摆纪录由近七年前创下——当时在 特朗普首个总统任期内曾上演过持续35天的政府停摆。 根据预测市场平台Kalshi周五的数据显示，交易员当前预计本轮政府停摆可能持续约41天，而两周前该 平台的预测仅为14天。 随着政府停摆持续，更多的领域无疑正在受到冲击，据悉，美国联邦法院系统也将从下周一开始削减非 必要职能，并让部分员工无薪休假，此前美国政府关门期间，司法机构为维持有偿运营所剩的资金已经 耗尽。 周四一份内部备忘录详细说明了该决定：由于国会未能通过维持法院及其他政府部门运作的拨款法案， 联邦司法系统将近三十年来首次被迫让逾三万名雇员中的部分人员停职，并要求其余人员无薪工作。 政府停摆负面影响越来越大 与此同时，随着美国政府停摆的持续，其造成的经济损害无 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. government shutdown is evolving into a significant political crisis, likely extending until November, with no signs of resolution from either the White House or the Democrats [1] Group 1: Government Shutdown Duration and Impact - Analysts predict the shutdown could last approximately 41 days, a significant increase from earlier estimates of 14 days [2] - The shutdown has already lasted 17 days, with the longest previous shutdown lasting 35 days during Trump's first term [1][2] - The federal judiciary is beginning to reduce non-essential functions, affecting over 30,000 employees, marking the first such action in nearly 30 years [2][3] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The number of federal workers applying for unemployment benefits has surged, reaching the highest level since the last major shutdown in January 2019 [6][11] - Economic estimates suggest that each week of the shutdown could reduce GDP by approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, with potential long-term impacts on an already fragile economy [9][13] - The White House has indicated that prolonged shutdowns could lead to significant cuts in government programs favored by Democrats [9] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Public opinion shows equal blame on both Republicans and Democrats regarding the shutdown, complicating negotiations and prolonging the deadlock [10] - Analysts suggest that the shutdown may become the longest in U.S. history, with potential opportunities for resolution arising from impacts on travel and healthcare [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 16 days, with the potential to become the second longest in history if it continues beyond 17 days [4][6][11] - The shutdown has led to the freezing or cancellation of funding for over 200 projects across the U.S., totaling nearly $28 billion, primarily affecting Democratic-led states and cities [11][12] - The delay in key economic data releases, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment statistics, is expected to adversely impact decision-making by the Federal Reserve and other institutions [13][15][17] Group 2 - The ongoing shutdown is causing significant economic losses, estimated at approximately $15 billion per day, raising concerns about the overall economic impact [15][17] - The lack of reliable government data is creating a "data blackout," complicating policy-making for other countries that rely on U.S. economic indicators [18][20] - The situation is leading to doubts about the U.S. government's ability to govern effectively and maintain the reliability of its economic data, which could weaken the dollar's position globally [20][23]

（央视财经《正点财经》）当地时间13日，美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第13天，美财政部长 贝森特表 示，这一轮"停摆"已开始影响国家经济。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：王昕宇 贝森特13日表示，情况越来越严重，政府"停摆"开始影响实体经济，影响民众生活。贝森特还称，为保 证军饷发放，联邦政府不得不暂停支付其他联邦雇员和服务机构员工的工资，并暂停博物馆、国家动物 园等机构的相关服务拨款。 美国会众议院共和党籍议长约翰逊13日继续将引发"停摆"的财政僵局归咎于民主党，并警告说，美 国"正在快速走向美国历史上最长的政府停摆"。众议院民主党领袖杰弗里斯12日说，民主党愿意坐下来 谈，但共和党依旧"我行我素"。 参议院共和党领袖图恩说，13日是美国公众假期，参议院将于14日复 会，预计当晚就临时拨款法案举行第八次表决。美媒指出，"停摆"即将进入第三周，两党在医保相关福 利开支等核心分歧上仍不让步，迅速达成妥协的前景渺茫。 ...

"民众成真正输家，勒紧裤腰带过日子"：美政府"停摆"苦果显现 中新网10月14日电 当地时间13日，美国联邦政府"停摆"已进入第13天，美财政部长贝森特表示，这一 轮"停摆"已开始影响国家经济。外媒指出，政府"停摆"苦果开始真正显现，在两党持续博弈的情况下， 美国民众成为真正的输家。 资料图：美国财政部长贝森特。 中新社记者 陈孟统 摄 "停摆"苦果显现 民众生活受影响 据路透社报道，贝森特在福克斯商业频道的一档节目中说，"情况越来越严重"，政府"停摆"开始影响实 体经济，影响民众生活。 他说，为保证军饷发放，联邦政府不得不暂停支付其他联邦雇员和服务机构员工的工资，其中包括史密 森学会下属博物馆和国家动物园。 贝森特说，"我们不得不调整计划，不得不让华盛顿特区和全国各地的员工暂时休假"，他还重申，政 府"停摆"导致美国对农民的援助停滞。 参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩说，"全国各地的家庭已经感受到了影响，而且情形即将大幅恶化。" 美国《华尔街日报》报道指出，政府"停摆"增加了日常交易的麻烦。联邦政府向小企业提供的贷款被搁 置。由于美国证券交易委员会的大部分员工都处于无薪休假状态，一些公司在发行股票和其他证券方面 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 13th day, significantly impacting the national economy according to Treasury Secretary Yellen [1] - The shutdown has led to the closure of numerous Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo, affecting public access and operations [1] - Flight delays have surged, with nearly 8,000 flights delayed and over 270 canceled due to air traffic controller shortages caused by the shutdown [1] Group 2 - The shutdown is threatening the National Flood Insurance Program, which millions of Americans rely on, potentially hindering mortgage approvals [1] - The ongoing fiscal impasse is attributed to partisan disagreements, with no immediate resolution in sight as both parties remain firm on key issues [2] - The Senate is expected to reconvene and hold a vote on a temporary funding bill, but the likelihood of a quick compromise appears low [2]