Group 1 - The core point of the news is the election of Anutin as the new Prime Minister of Thailand, supported by the People's Party, which holds nearly one-third of the seats in the lower house, leading to a minority government situation [1][2][4] - Anutin received 311 votes out of 490 total votes in the lower house, easily surpassing the required majority [2] - The People's Party has agreed to support Anutin under the condition that the new government must dissolve the lower house within four months, leading to new elections expected in February or March of next year [3][4] Group 2 - Anutin's leadership is seen as a potential opportunity to stabilize Thailand's political situation, although challenges remain due to the minority government structure [1][6] - The political landscape in Thailand is characterized by frequent power struggles and a lack of trust among political players, complicating Anutin's ability to govern effectively [6][7] - Economic growth in Thailand is under pressure, with forecasts indicating a growth rate of only 2% by 2025, significantly lower than neighboring countries [7]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from Philip Nova suggest that if spot gold prices continue to break above $3,500, gold prices may reach a range of $3,600 to $3,900 per ounce in the coming months driven by factors such as interest rate cut expectations, political turmoil, and strong ETF demand [1] Group 1 - Spot gold prices are currently experiencing upward momentum, with a potential target range of $3,600 to $3,900 per ounce [1] - The shift in gold's role from a tactical hedge to a strategic asset for many investors is influenced by various market factors [1] - Key drivers for this shift include expectations of interest rate cuts, ongoing political instability, and robust demand for gold ETFs [1]

Group 1 - French business leaders warn that current political instability may lead to severe economic consequences, highlighting a lack of consensus on public finance reform [1][2] - The French government is facing a trust vote on September 8, with opposition parties planning to reject the government's deficit plan, indicating a challenging political landscape [2][3] - Concerns about a potential recession are rising, with warnings from business leaders about dwindling orders and increasing tariff pressures, which could threaten economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - The yield on France's benchmark 10-year government bonds has surpassed 3.5%, nearing the highest level since the Eurozone debt crisis, reflecting market unease [2][3] - The French economy is heavily reliant on consumer spending, and increased uncertainty is seen as detrimental to consumer confidence, raising the risk of significant economic shocks [2][3] - France's fiscal deficit is projected to be 5.8% of GDP in 2024, with public debt reaching 114% of GDP by the end of Q1 2025, indicating a concerning fiscal outlook [3]

Group 1: European Economic Outlook - Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that September may be the last opportunity for the European Central Bank to lower interest rates in the Eurozone, with current expectations that rates will remain at 2.00% unless August's consumer price inflation falls below expectations [1] - Concerns over Eurozone debt may weaken the Euro, as highlighted by Deutsche Bank, especially with the potential for a government trust vote in France regarding budget deficit cuts [2] Group 2: Consumer Confidence in Germany - The GfK consumer confidence index in Germany fell from -21.7 to -23.6, marking a third consecutive decline due to rising fears of unemployment and inflation uncertainty [2] - Analysts indicate that income expectations have dropped significantly, reaching the lowest level since March, contributing to the overall decline in consumer sentiment [2] Group 3: Market Impact of Political Uncertainty - Swiss bank analysts note that while political uncertainty in France has increased, its impact on the market remains limited, with a widening spread between French and German government bonds [3] - Barclays highlights that India faces heightened economic risks due to high tariffs, with a total trade-weighted tax rate of 35.7%, particularly affecting its electrical machinery and jewelry sectors [3] Group 4: Manufacturing Sector Concerns - CGS International economists warn that Singapore's manufacturing outlook may be negatively impacted by U.S. tariffs, with the manufacturing PMI falling into contraction territory in July [3] - Ongoing uncertainties regarding trade policies and tariffs are expected to sustain downward risks for Singapore's manufacturing sector [3]

Group 1 - The Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his cabinet are facing a critical parliamentary vote that could lead to a government collapse, marking a significant political crisis in the Netherlands [1] - The crisis was triggered by the exit of the center-right New Social Contract party from the ruling coalition due to disagreements over Gaza war policies, resulting in the resignation of key members including Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra [1] - The current government is in a caretaker state with only two parties remaining, holding just 32 out of 150 parliamentary seats, making it the weakest minority government in post-war Netherlands [1] Group 2 - The political turmoil in the Netherlands coincides with instability in other European countries, such as France, which is also facing governmental challenges, potentially weakening the EU's ability to respond to external pressures like the Trump trade war and the Ukraine peace process [1] - Upcoming elections in October may lead to prolonged coalition negotiations due to the fragmented political landscape, resulting in a policy vacuum [1] - A marathon debate is scheduled to discuss three options: the current cabinet continuing to govern, forming a new government, or appointing non-partisan technocrats temporarily [1] Group 3 - Rutte indicated that the two remaining parties have reached an agreement on ministerial positions, but continued governance requires support from opposition parties, which have set stringent conditions [2] - The emergency plan proposed by the progressive D66 party suggests that if Rutte steps down, the cabinet would be temporarily led by non-partisan senior officials, pending parliamentary majority support and royal approval [2]

Core Points - The Israeli government, led by Netanyahu, voted to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, a move seen as part of a broader effort to weaken the judiciary [1][3] - The dismissal was immediately halted by the Israeli Supreme Court, which prohibited the government from appointing a new Attorney General or altering Baharav-Miara's work arrangements until a legal ruling is made [3] - This marks the first time in Israel's history that a government has voted to remove an Attorney General, raising concerns about Netanyahu's intentions to protect himself amid ongoing corruption charges [3] Legal and Political Implications - The decision to dismiss Baharav-Miara is expected to have significant legal and political ramifications, potentially leading to a constitutional crisis [3] - Baharav-Miara has stated that her dismissal is "illegal" and affirmed her commitment to continue her work with professionalism and integrity [3] - The ongoing investigations into Netanyahu's alleged corruption, including bribery and fraud, are likely to be affected by this political maneuvering [3]

Group 1 - The euro is currently trading around 1.1426 against the US dollar, showing a decline of 0.12% from the previous close of 1.1439 [1] - This week is significant for euro traders due to the release of two high-impact financial data points: the preliminary harmonized consumer price index (HICP) for May and the revised GDP for the first quarter [2] - A slowdown in the HICP data could weaken the euro, indicating reduced inflationary pressure in the eurozone, which may increase the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) [2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the ECB, but actual actions may not sufficiently weaken the euro, as another cut is expected by year-end [2] - Political instability within Europe, particularly related to Ukraine and Palestine, continues to be a concern for euro traders [2] - Any progress in ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine could positively impact the euro, while easing trade tensions between the EU and the US may also support the euro [2] Group 3 - The initial support level for the euro against the dollar is at the 55-day moving average of 1.1175, with further support levels at the May low of 1.1064 and the psychological level of 1.1000 [2] - If these levels are breached, the euro may test the critical 200-day moving average support at 1.0815 [2] - Momentum indicators show divergence, with the average directional index (ADX) around 20 indicating weakening trend strength, while the relative strength index (RSI) breaking above 60 suggests increasing bullish momentum [2]

Group 1 - The main constraints faced by Israel include institutional and security risks, poor economic management, and political instability [1]