Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, reaching a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.11% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 191.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Reasons for the Rise - Market hotspots were concentrated in finance, military industry, and computer sectors, with more stocks rising than falling. The strong performance of the ChiNext 50 Index was attributed to geopolitical factors, policy support, liquidity recovery, and industry events [5] - Geopolitical developments, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reduced market risk aversion and led to a capital influx into high-risk assets, benefiting the technology sector and the ChiNext [6] - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicated a potential for monetary easing, which may boost market risk appetite and attract foreign capital into emerging markets, particularly benefiting growth sectors like the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [7] Policy and Market Support - Recent guidance from the central bank and six departments emphasized financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, aiming to stabilize economic fundamentals and enhance the flow of medium- to long-term capital into the market [8] - The implementation of monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs is expected to promote stable development in the capital market [8] Industry Performance - The brokerage and fintech sectors showed significant performance, with news about stablecoins and regulatory approvals potentially driving valuations higher for leading brokerages [9] - Companies like CATL are benefiting from the accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries, which are expected to become mainstream in the high-end market by 2030, presenting valuation opportunities for related firms [9] Market Outlook - Short-term focus should be on event catalysts and mid-year earnings reports, with potential for continued strength in the ChiNext if earnings exceed expectations and geopolitical stability is maintained [9] - From a mid- to long-term perspective, sectors like AI, new energy, and pharmaceuticals show clear growth logic, with the ChiNext 50 Index currently trading at a PE-TTM of approximately 31 times, below its historical average, indicating potential for valuation recovery [10]

Core Viewpoint - The economic conditions are currently favorable, and the policies in place are also effective, maintaining a balanced situation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Daly emphasizes that the economy is performing well so far [1] - Policies implemented are deemed appropriate and contribute positively to the economic landscape [1] - The overall situation is described as balanced, indicating stability in economic indicators [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that the framework review has two aspects: policy and communication [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor emphasizes that policies should serve the UK economy [1] Group 1 - The Chancellor's statement reflects a commitment to aligning government policies with economic growth objectives [1] - There is an indication that future fiscal measures will be designed to support economic stability and development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently in a favorable position regarding its policies and inflation levels [1] Group 1 - The ECB's governing council member, Villeroy de Galhau, stated that both policy and inflation are currently within a favorable range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current focus of fund managers is shifting towards policies rather than rhetoric, indicating a negative outlook on existing policies [1] Group 1 - Economic weakness is deemed more significant than any statements made by Scott Bessenet or Trump [1]

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 关税是近期市场普遍关心的话题，我们整理了一些外资投行的观察视角，以供参考。 截至本文发布，美国总统特朗普表示，他正考虑对进口汽车和零部件关税实施临时豁免的可能性， 以便让汽车企业有更多时间在美国建立生产设施。 在此之前，特朗普称豁免电子产品关税只是一项 临时措施，这些产品将被即将实施的行业关税所覆盖。 局势正在以分钟级速度演变。 关税政策能重振美国的就业吗？ 有外资报告援引学术研究结果显示，特朗普关税政策或对美国就业存在负面影响。关税税率每提高10个 百分点，受保护行业的就业岗位将增加0.2-0.4%；而关税驱动成本每上升1个百分点，就业岗位会减少 0.3-0.6%。考虑美国的经济体量，意味着关税保护对制造业就业的提振作用不足10万个岗位，而由此带 来的成本压力对下游就业的拖累效应则高达约50万个岗位。 企业应对关税风险的五种常见策略 外资投行基于观察企业应对上一轮关税争端的经验，总结出面对关税风险企业通常可以采取的五种应对 策略。在最新的关税政策下，部分策略是否还能继续 ...