点击上图 ▲立即报名 商务部召开外资企业圆桌会 4月 23日，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国4月Markit综合PMI初值51.2，为2023年12月以来的最低值，预期52，前值53。其中，新订单指数从 3月的53.3降至52.5；产出价格环比上涨，为去年3月以来的最高。美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.6，前值54.4。服务出口（包括 旅游及其他跨境服务）下降幅度为2023年1月以来最大，尤其显著抑制了需求增长。 4月 23日，商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激主持召开外资企业圆桌会，就美加征关税给在华外资企业投资经营带来的影响与企业交流。 会议由中国外商投资企业协会主办，80余家外资企业和在华外国商会代表参会。财政部、商务部、海关总署、国家药监局有关司局负责人参会并 回应企业反映的问题诉求。 凌激表示，希望外资企业发出理性声音，坚定信心、克服困难、化危为机，共同战胜单边主义和保护主义。中国将继续扩大高水平对外开放，努 力保障产供链稳定畅通，推动解决外资企业问题诉求。与会企业代表表示，中国的外资政策持续、稳定、可预期，愿继续对华投资，深化互利合 作，共同应对挑战。（央视新闻） ｜点评｜ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rumors regarding new real estate regulations in Shenzhen, emphasizing the importance of relying on official information rather than unverified claims [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - There are rumors circulating on social media about new real estate policies in Shenzhen, which have been linked to a notification allegedly sent by Shenzhen Beike, urging employees to prepare for new stimuli [2]. - Industry experts suggest that the upcoming "May Day" holiday may lead to fabricated rumors aimed at stimulating real estate sales, advising buyers to trust official announcements [3]. - Following a "small spring" in the real estate market during March and April, experts predict a potential downward trend in the second quarter, indicating a policy vacuum where existing measures have been exhausted and new policies are yet to be implemented [3]. Group 2: Sales Performance - In March, Shenzhen's real estate market showed strong performance compared to other first-tier cities, with a significant increase in both new and second-hand housing transactions. Specifically, new residential sales reached 4,161 units, a 67.5% month-on-month increase and a 47.2% year-on-year increase, while second-hand residential transactions totaled 6,078 units, up 65.3% month-on-month and 58.3% year-on-year [3]. - The inventory of pre-sold residential properties in Shenzhen stood at 26,655 units by the end of March, with an average monthly sales rate of 3,474 units, resulting in a depletion cycle of approximately 7.7 months [3]. Group 3: Policy Adjustments - In March, the Shenzhen Housing Provident Fund Management Committee announced adjustments to housing provident fund loan regulations and interest subsidies, effective from March 24, 2025. These adjustments include increased loan limits, changes to minimum down payment ratios, and the removal of residency and first-home restrictions for intercity loans [4]. - The Shenzhen Real Estate Agency anticipates that new housing projects designed under the new regulations will enter the market, which are expected to enhance product quality and stimulate demand further. The ongoing policy support, including the new provident fund measures, is likely to keep the second-hand housing market active in April [4].

4月全月环比回落是大概率事件，二季度或将延续止跌企稳态势。 ◎ 文 / 俞倩倩 2025年前2月市场止跌企稳，3月传统营销旺季来临，新房成交再度来到年度高点，京沪深杭蓉等部分核心 一二线局部"小阳春"，目前4月已度过半月有余，究竟小阳春持续性几何？各城市复苏有何差异化特征，基 于当前市场逻辑，二季度楼市成交是否还有放量空间，哪些城市又存在结构性机会呢？ 4月半月30城项目平均去化率34% 环降同增、仍处高位震荡 01 据CRIC监测数据， 重点26城4月上半月成交面积达317.17万平方米，环比下降14%，与去年同期基本持 平。各能级环比降幅都在14%-15%之间，同比来看， 一线率先回稳 ，4月上半月成交量较去年同期增长 32%，主要源于去年三季度末新政刺激，存量客户潜在需求被激发，加之去年同期基数不高，也使得成交 规模有了显著增长。 而二线和三四线城市小阳春成色相对一般， 同比分别下降10%和8%，更多是局部复 苏，主要源于购买力疲软，市场热度仍有待一线传导。 从短期市场热度来看，仍处于高位波动区间： 据CRIC监测数据，4月上半月重点30城项目开盘去化率为 34%，与2025年2月全月持平，较2025年 ...

4月全月环比回落是大概率事件，二季度或将延续止跌企稳态势。 ◎ 文 / 俞倩倩 2025年前2月市场止跌企稳，3月传统营销旺季来临，新房成交再度来到年度高点，京沪深杭蓉等部分核心 一二线局部"小阳春"，目前4月已度过半月有余，究竟小阳春持续性几何？各城市复苏有何差异化特征，基 于当前市场逻辑，二季度楼市成交是否还有放量空间，哪些城市又存在结构性机会呢？ 4月半月30城项目平均去化率34% 环降同增、仍处高位震荡 01 据CRIC监测数据， 重点26城4月上半月成交面积达317.17万平方米，环比下降14%，与去年同期基本持 平。各能级环比降幅都在14%-15%之间，同比来看， 一线率先回稳 ，4月上半月成交量较去年同期增长 32%，主要源于去年三季度末新政刺激，存量客户潜在需求被激发，加之去年同期基数不高，也使得成交 规模有了显著增长。 而二线和三四线城市小阳春成色相对一般， 同比分别下降10%和8%，更多是局部复 苏，主要源于购买力疲软，市场热度仍有待一线传导。 从短期市场热度来看，仍处于高位波动区间： 据CRIC监测数据，4月上半月重点30城项目开盘去化率为 34%，与2025年2月全月持平，较2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a potential continuation of weak recovery in Q2, particularly in hot cities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the overall real estate market stabilized, with total transaction area for new and second-hand homes reaching 82.04 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17% [3][5]. - New home transactions in 115 key cities remained flat compared to last year, with a total area of 51.31 million square meters [5]. - First-tier cities outperformed second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities showing a year-on-year increase of 26%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decline of 8% [5][7]. Group 2: City-Specific Trends - Hot cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu saw stronger recovery in second-hand home transactions compared to new homes [7]. - Cities such as Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Wuhan showed signs of weak recovery, with transaction levels returning to last year's figures [9]. - In contrast, cities like Hefei and Nanjing exhibited insufficient growth momentum, with declining customer conversion rates [16][19]. Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - Strong product offerings, particularly new regulations for high-efficiency housing, have driven market interest, with new products achieving high sales rates [22][23]. - Well-developed infrastructure, such as transit-oriented developments and school districts, has become a significant selling point for properties [27]. - Discounted pricing and strong marketing strategies for entry-level homes have contributed to increased sales volume [30]. Group 4: Second-Hand Market Insights - The second-hand market remains active, with many properties in core cities experiencing price increases, extending market warmth to first-time buyers [31]. - Over half of the second-hand properties in core cities have seen price increases, indicating a recovery in the market [31][32]. - The trend of new home quality upgrades is expected to continue, potentially impacting the second-hand market share [33].

Core Insights - The real estate market in Xi'an has seen a significant increase in transaction volume in March, driven by favorable policies and structural adjustments in supply and demand [1][6][9] - New housing supply reached 630,600 square meters, a 123% month-on-month increase, while transaction volume rose to 549,800 square meters, up 46% from the previous month [1][7] - The second-hand housing market also experienced a surge, with over 10,000 units registered in March, marking a 50% increase compared to February [9][12] Group 1: New Housing Market - The number of visitors to housing projects increased significantly, with one project reporting over 2,800 groups visiting and a transaction amount of 250 million yuan [2][5] - The average price of new homes in Xi'an was 17,934 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 1% month-on-month increase [7] - The main transaction segments were for homes sized between 120-160 square meters, indicating a trend towards larger, more functional living spaces [8] Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market saw a total of 10,470 units registered, with a 50.17% increase from February and a notable rise in demand driven by school district considerations [9][12] - The average listing price for second-hand homes was 16,081 yuan per square meter, down 1.14% month-on-month, indicating a price adjustment in response to increased supply [12] - The market is characterized by a price-for-volume strategy, with many sellers reducing prices to attract buyers [12]

最弱小阳春 01 小阳春，结束了。 | l | l l | = | E | 节 | 六 | ■ | 合计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02.24 | 02.25 | 02.26 | 02.27 | 02.28 | 03.01 | 03.02 | 9周 | | 335 | 238 | 248 | 229 | 232 | 543 | 631 | 2456 | | 03.03 | 03.04 | 03.05 | 03.06 | 03.07 | 03.08 | 03.09 | 10周 | | 314 | 232 | 254 | 249 | 224 | 552 | 678 | 2503 | | 03.10 | 03.11 | 03.12 | 03.13 | 03.14 | 03.15 | 03.16 | 11周 | | 257 | 252 | 250 | 217 | 226 | 519 | 583 | 2304 | | 03.17 | 03.18 | 03.19 | 03.20 | 03.21 | 03.22 | 03.23 | 12周 | ...

苏州的房地产市场 也迎来了"升温" 据贝壳研究院苏州分院最新数据显示， 三月以来，苏州新房和二手房市场活跃度显著提升，带看量和成交量双双大幅增长，尤其是二手房市场，成交价 也出现了一些上涨现象。 苏州迎来楼市"小阳春" 随着"金三银四"到来 贝壳数据显示，截至3月20日，市场活跃度显著提升，二手房市场表现出强劲的增长势头，二手房带看量环比提升40.1%，成交量环比提升98.6%，同时二 手房成交价环比提升2.5%。其中工业园区二手房成交价环比增长7.3%，成为全市涨幅最高的区域。此外相城区紧随其后成交价环比增长3.2%。 "终于等到合适的房子了！"在苏州工业园区一家科技公司工作的李先生，最近刚刚签下了湖西板块一套二手房。他告诉记者，自己从去年就开始看 房。"去年觉得市场不太稳定，所以迟迟没下手。但今年开春后，明显感觉市场活跃起来了，看房的人也多了。" 李先生的经历并非个例。随着政策的持续支持和市场信心的恢复，越来越多的购房者从观望转为行动。更是有房东透露，最近两个月每逢周末，都有五组 以上客户预约看房，和半年前刚挂牌时相比明显变多。 "随着政策的进一步优化和市场的逐步调整，苏州房地产市场将更加健康、稳定地发展 ...

北京楼市，冰火两重天 第二个热点则完全不同，东坝某地铁上盖的项目，网签均价一直接近8万，突然大降价至6.3-6.9万/平， 据说项目以极快的速度卖出了大约15套房源，然后老业主深夜WQ，导致售楼处周末都关门了，同时停 止了跟所有渠道的合作。 这就是我之前说的，北京的新房更新换代了，"好房子"出来后，老产品都没法卖了。（参见上篇《打6 折了！北京存量新房开始抢跑》） 这个东坝的老盘得房率低至73%，而今年朝阳的纯新盘得房率90%+的比比皆是，还有什么阳台、会 所、架空层、层高提高、精装修升级都配置上了，规划条件大幅放松，而且，朝阳的新房还没涨价，也 涨不了价。 周末有两个走势完全不同的热点，一边是抢房，一边是大降价，冰火两重天。 第一个热点是海淀功德寺两个新盘开盘即售罄，火得一塌糊涂，我们不少粉丝两边下注，交了100万认 筹金，都没抢到。 这是真实的火，项目要求3天交齐首付，开盘才过了一天，和樾望云已经网签了76套，史上最快网签速 度。 功德寺的两个新盘，是北京最后几个带指导价的项目，也很可能是最后的倒挂新盘，至少在海淀未来再 出现倒挂概率很低。 强产业区+学区+价格倒挂+品质新房，火爆毫不意外。 这周末，北京 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4]. Core Viewpoints - The "small spring" effect in the real estate market has shown signs of slowing down in terms of growth rate after the Spring Festival [7][42]. - New housing sales have rebounded quickly post-holiday, but the growth rate has started to decline after several weeks of significant increases [42]. - The report anticipates that improved land supply quality and adjustments in housing design standards will support demand for higher-quality residential properties [42]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 11th week, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, with a relative return of -1.0% [10][11]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4006.56 with a weekly increase of 1.6%, while the real estate index closed at 2316.60 with a weekly increase of 0.6% [10][11]. Sales Data - In the 11th week, new home sales in 44 major cities reached 18,000 units, a 13.7% increase from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities reached 23,000 units, a 9.1% increase [14]. - The inventory in 18 major cities increased to 831,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 21.9 months, up by 3.2 months from the previous week [18]. Policy Developments - National policies continue to support the real estate sector, with financial regulatory bodies enhancing coordination mechanisms for real estate financing [12][13]. - Local policies include adjustments in down payment ratios and tax standards to stimulate home purchases in cities like Suzhou and Ningbo [12][16]. Company Announcements - Several companies, including New City Holdings and China Overseas Development, have released operational updates indicating significant declines in sales compared to the previous year [36][38][39]. - The report highlights the performance of specific companies, recommending Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou as "Buy" [42]. Land Market Activity - The land market saw increased activity in the 11th week, with a total of 10 land parcels sold across 36 major cities, resulting in land transfer fees of 7.089 billion yuan, an increase of 3.78 billion yuan from the previous week [22][30].