Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable recovery in the real estate market, with an average opening sales rate of 41% in June across 30 cities, reflecting a positive trend in market performance [3][31]. Core Insights - The overall real estate market in June continued its weak recovery trend, with a slight decrease in new home transactions but an increase in project sales rates, which rose by 3 percentage points month-on-month and 11 percentage points year-on-year [3][31]. - High-quality projects and new regulations have positively influenced market performance, with new projects achieving significantly higher sales rates compared to traditional ones [11][31]. - The report highlights a clear differentiation in market performance between core first and second-tier cities and weaker third and fourth-tier cities, with the former showing sustained demand and higher sales rates [31][32]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In June, the average opening sales rate across 30 key cities was 41%, marking a month-on-month increase of 3 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 11 percentage points, indicating a stable market [3][31]. - Cities like Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Tianjin showed sales rates exceeding 60%, driven by the introduction of attractive new projects [7][31]. New Regulations and Project Performance - New regulations and high-efficiency housing projects have led to improved sales rates, with new projects in Guangzhou achieving a sales rate 30 percentage points higher than older projects [11][31]. - In June, Guangzhou saw 11 new projects enter the market, accounting for 60% of the total supply, with a subscription rate of approximately 90% [11][31]. City-Specific Trends - Core cities such as Shanghai and Chengdu experienced strong demand for high-end properties, with many projects achieving over 70% sales rates on the first day of opening [18][20]. - In contrast, weaker cities like Nanning and Changchun saw no new project launches, reflecting a lack of market activity [7][31]. Government Policies and Market Dynamics - Government-led initiatives, such as stock housing buybacks and housing vouchers, have positively impacted sales in cities like Suzhou and Zhengzhou, with a significant portion of sales driven by these policies [25][31]. - The report notes that in cities like Beijing and Xiamen, aggressive discounting and commission incentives have successfully boosted sales [27][31]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that new home transaction volumes may continue to fluctuate at low levels, but the year-on-year decline could narrow due to a low base from the previous year [32][31]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with core areas maintaining high demand while peripheral projects struggle to achieve sales [32][31].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a weak recovery trend, with new home transaction volumes expected to continue fluctuating at low levels in July, although the year-on-year decline may narrow due to a low base from last year [1][23]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June, the average opening sales rate for new homes in 30 major cities was 41%, showing a month-on-month increase of 3 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 11 percentage points, indicating a stable upward trend [2][22]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou saw increases in sales rates, while cities like Ningbo and Jiaxing continued to experience low sales rates below 20% [3][22]. - The introduction of high-quality new projects, particularly those with high usable area ratios, has positively impacted market activity, with new regulations promoting the construction of "good houses" [4][22]. Group 2: Project Performance - In Guangzhou, new projects under the new regulations accounted for 60% of the total supply in June, achieving a sales rate 30 percentage points higher than older projects, with some projects exceeding 40% [5][6]. - In Chongqing, new generation residential projects had sales rates above 75%, while traditional residential projects struggled with rates around 20% [7][22]. - High-end properties in core areas of cities like Shanghai and Chengdu have seen strong demand, with some projects achieving over 70% sales on the first day of opening [12][22]. Group 3: Government Policies and Market Dynamics - In cities like Suzhou and Zhengzhou, government-led initiatives such as stock housing buybacks and housing vouchers have helped boost sales in non-core areas [19][22]. - In cities like Beijing and Fuzhou, strategies such as price discounts and increased commissions have successfully driven sales [20][22]. - The overall market is characterized by significant differentiation between cities and projects, with core urban areas maintaining high demand while many peripheral projects struggle [23][22].

Core Insights - The real estate market in the first half of 2025 shows a mixed performance, with some companies thriving while others struggle due to declining sales and a reduction in the number of billion-dollar firms [1] Group 1: Performance of Real Estate Companies - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 18,364.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%, with the decline rate widening by 1 percentage point compared to the first five months [3] - The number of billion-dollar firms decreased from 6 to 4, with only Poly, Greentown, China Overseas, and China Resources remaining in this category [3] - Major firms are increasingly adopting a "joint development" model, with Poly's total sales of 145.2 billion yuan but only 68.97 billion yuan in equity sales, and Greentown's total sales of 122.1 billion yuan with equity sales around 30 billion yuan, indicating over 70% of projects are developed collaboratively [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Recovery - Despite overall poor performance in the first half, June saw a notable recovery in the real estate market, with top 100 firms achieving a monthly sales amount of 338.96 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [4] - The contribution rate of first-tier cities to sales increased by 9 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 40%, with Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou being the top three cities [4] - The market is focusing on 90-140 square meter improvement housing, which accounts for 45.7% of the market, while larger high-end products are also gaining traction [4] Group 3: Land Acquisition Activity - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 firms reached 506.55 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, with over 65% of land sales concentrated in the top 20 cities [5] - In Shanghai, a recent land auction attracted 14 firms, with a total transaction price of 21.26 billion yuan and a premium rate exceeding 10% [5] - Fujian-based firms are particularly active in the land auction market, with several ranking among the top bidders [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue a weak recovery trend in the second half of 2025, with new home transaction volumes likely to remain low but with a narrowing year-on-year decline [6] - Key land parcels in Guangzhou, such as the core area of the Zhujiang New Town, are anticipated to become focal points for competition among firms in the latter half of the year [8] - Companies are advised to maintain rationality in bidding for core land parcels to avoid challenges in subsequent development phases [8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market in China is stabilizing, with a notable performance from first-tier cities, while second and third-tier cities are experiencing increased differentiation in sales performance [9][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 338.96 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [10][13]. - The cumulative sales turnover for the first half of 2025 reached 1,652.68 billion yuan, with the new housing transaction volume in 30 key cities totaling 10.34 million square meters, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [10][21]. Group 2: Company Performance - Nearly 60% of the top 100 real estate companies reported month-on-month growth in June, with 28 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 30%, including notable performers like China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, and China Jinmao [13][18]. - The sales threshold for the top 30 real estate companies increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 11.98 billion yuan, while other tiers saw slight decreases in their sales thresholds [17][18]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The expectation for July indicates that new housing transaction volumes may continue to fluctuate at low levels, but the year-on-year decline could narrow due to a low base from the previous year, suggesting a weak recovery trend [20][21]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to persist, with core first and second-tier cities likely to maintain strong demand, particularly in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and weak recovery in Q2 2025, with new home supply and demand both increasing month-on-month but decreasing year-on-year, indicating significant supply constraints [1][2][6]. Supply - In Q2 2025, new home supply increased month-on-month but decreased by 20% year-on-year, with significant supply constraints remaining [2][6]. - Only first-tier cities saw a notable increase in supply, while second and third-tier cities continued to experience low supply levels, with the largest declines in the latter [4][6]. - The supply situation varied by city, with hotspots like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou experiencing increased supply, while weaker second and third-tier cities like Foshan and Huizhou saw significant declines [6][7]. Transaction Volume - The real estate market showed a weak recovery in Q2 2025, with a slight month-on-month increase in new home transactions, but a year-on-year decline [7][10]. - First-tier cities maintained strong transaction volumes, with cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing positive year-on-year growth, while second and third-tier cities experienced mixed results [10][11]. - Overall, the transaction volume is expected to decline in Q3 compared to Q2, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to last year's low base [27]. Second-hand Transactions - In Q2 2025, second-hand home transactions remained high but showed a downward trend month-on-month, with cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an experiencing significant year-on-year growth [11][14]. - Some third-tier cities also saw substantial growth due to low base effects from the previous year, while others remained in a correction phase [14][15]. Housing Prices - New home prices in 70 cities showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen maintaining high prices, while third-tier cities experienced steady price corrections [15][16]. - The price dynamics are influenced by the introduction of high-quality new properties, which have stabilized and slightly increased prices in certain markets [15][16]. Inventory - As of May 2025, the inventory of new homes was 463 million square meters, showing a downward trend due to supply constraints and stable transaction volumes [18][21]. - The inventory turnover period is stabilizing at around 25 months, with first-tier cities showing a significant decrease in inventory risks [21][23]. Outlook - The supply is expected to decline in Q3 2025, with first-tier cities remaining the focus for new launches due to strong demand [25][26]. - The overall market is anticipated to continue its weak recovery, with significant differentiation between core first and second-tier cities and weaker third-tier cities [27].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing after a period of adjustment, with notable performance in major cities during May, although significant market differentiation remains evident [1][3][9]. Market Performance - In May, the new housing transaction area in 30 key cities was 10.58 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 9% [1][9]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou showed positive trends, with Shanghai's new housing transactions increasing by 20% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [3][4]. - Guangzhou's new housing transactions rose by 32% month-on-month and 26% year-on-year, while Beijing saw a 14% month-on-month and 38% year-on-year increase [4][3]. Sales Performance of Leading Companies - The sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies in May decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, with a slight increase in the decline rate compared to April [10][12]. - Poly Developments achieved a sales revenue of 28.51 billion yuan in May, a month-on-month increase of 15.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.3% [10]. - Greentown China reported a sales revenue of 25.5 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [10]. Market Differentiation - The market is characterized by significant differentiation, with some cities experiencing a decline in new housing transaction volumes [7][8]. - In Chengdu, new housing supply and transaction volumes both saw declines, with new supply down by 38.84% year-on-year [8]. - In Shenzhen, core area projects had a high sales rate exceeding 80%, while non-core area projects struggled with rates below 50% [8]. Product Strategy and Market Response - Companies are focusing on launching "good housing" new regulation products to improve sales performance, achieving high sales rates [1][9]. - Developers are adapting their strategies by enhancing existing projects and improving service quality to compete with new regulation products [13]. - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend, with a focus on improving product quality and marketing efforts as companies approach mid-year performance targets [14].

当前市场延续止跌企稳弱复苏走势。 表现在数据层面，前5月重点30城新房成交累计同比增长6%；项目平均开盘去化率为39%，同环比分别增长12个百分点和1个百分点，去化率基本与2023 年高峰期持平。 CRIC监测的全国重点城市开盘去化和成交数据也可以明显看出，"好房子"领涨全国。 除此之外，部分二线城市存量房收购及房票安置带动了非核心区项目热销，而相对低迷的弱二线城市仍在加速"以价换量"。 前5月新房成交同比增6% 30城平均去化率同环比正增 在我们调研过程中，一位头部房企华中区域营销总坦言，现在新房市场非常卷，其所在区域仅一些产品力过硬的改善类产品和新规四代宅产品卖得相对较 好，且热卖项目普遍集中在主城区。 5有楼市延续弱复苏。 CRIC监测的30个城市5有新房成交规模为1058万平方米，环比微降2%，同比下降9%。前5月累计成交 5047 万平方米，同比上涨6% 一线城市保持正增长，北上广深4城5月新房成交环比增6%，同比增长20%。上海和广州表现突出，5月成交规模均超50万平方米且同环比齐增，适销对路 的优质盘入市使得短期市场热度延续。 26个二三线城市环比企稳，但同比仍回落13%，降幅超30城平均水平。 ...

Group 1 - The overall real estate market has shown a weak recovery trend since 2025, with April experiencing a decline in new home sales compared to the peak in March, but still remaining at a high level for the year [1][2] - In May, sales in key cities have not exceeded the levels of April, although some cities have seen an increase compared to May 2024 [2][3] - The average absorption rate in April for typical city projects decreased by 6 percentage points month-on-month but increased by 13 percentage points year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the peak in 2023 [1][3] Group 2 - The growth momentum in the real estate market has significantly slowed down since April, with new home supply remaining flat compared to March, while transaction volumes have decreased [2][3] - In May, both supply and sales in key cities have returned to a low phase, with some cities showing higher sales compared to the same period in 2024 [2][3] - Notable cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw increases in sales of 30.2%, 20.64%, and 5.63% respectively in May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Group 3 - The absorption rate in 30 key cities averaged 38% in April, with a decrease of 6 percentage points month-on-month, but an increase of 13 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a stable market trend [3] - Cities with absorption rates exceeding 60% include Chengdu, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, and Tianjin, primarily driven by the launch of core area improvement projects [3][9] - New regulatory projects have shown significantly better absorption rates compared to traditional projects, with high practical utility rates being a key factor [7][9] Group 4 - Projects with strong product capabilities, particularly those with good transportation and educational resources, continue to be popular among buyers [10][11] - In cities like Shanghai, projects near transit lines and with strong educational attributes have seen high sales, with notable examples including the Feiyun Yuefu and other transit-oriented developments [11][12] - During the May Day holiday, many second-tier cities adopted discount strategies to boost sales, achieving positive marketing results [13][16] Group 5 - The overall market recovery momentum is weakening, with core area improvement projects and high practical utility new regulatory projects driving sales [16] - In second-tier cities like Chengdu and Chongqing, the market is heavily reliant on discounts and high commissions to stimulate sales, indicating a significant downgrade in consumer purchasing power [16] - Future market trends are expected to continue the weak recovery trajectory, with new regulatory projects potentially driving localized market improvements [16]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to continue a weak recovery trend in May, with a focus on quality over quantity in project launches, particularly in cities like Guangzhou and Chengdu, which may lead to localized market improvements [1][21]. Market Performance - In April, the average project de-stocking rate in 30 key cities was 38%, a decrease of 6 percentage points month-on-month but an increase of 13 percentage points year-on-year, maintaining a high level for 2023 [3][4]. - The overall market heat in April showed a slight decline compared to March, but year-on-year comparisons remained positive, indicating a stabilization in the market [4][21]. - Cities like Chengdu, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, and Tianjin saw de-stocking rates exceeding 60%, primarily due to the introduction of quality improvement projects [4][21]. Project Characteristics - New regulations and high-efficiency projects are gaining popularity, with cities experiencing stable growth in de-stocking rates attributed to the launch of core area improvement projects [8][9]. - In Guangzhou, 13 new regulation products accounted for 60% of the market, with a notable project, Poly Tianyi, achieving a 37% de-stocking rate upon its launch [8]. - In Zhengzhou, two new projects significantly outperformed traditional offerings, indicating a strong demand for high-quality housing even in a sluggish market [9]. Supporting Factors - Quality infrastructure, particularly in transportation and education, is crucial for attracting buyers, with projects near transit lines and reputable schools performing well [10][13]. - The trend of "price for volume" is evident in second-tier cities like Chengdu and Chongqing, where discounts and enhanced commission structures have led to improved sales performance during the May Day holiday [15][18]. Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to maintain a weak recovery trend in May, with a focus on quality project launches potentially driving localized improvements [21]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou may see sustained market heat if suitable high-quality projects are introduced, while cities like Wuhan and Tianjin are expected to stabilize after previous adjustments [21]. - However, weaker second-tier cities such as Fuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming face challenges with high inventory levels, making overall de-stocking prospects less optimistic [21].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a potential continuation of weak recovery in Q2, particularly in hot cities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the overall real estate market stabilized, with total transaction area for new and second-hand homes reaching 82.04 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17% [3][5]. - New home transactions in 115 key cities remained flat compared to last year, with a total area of 51.31 million square meters [5]. - First-tier cities outperformed second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities showing a 26% year-on-year increase, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced an 8% decline [5][7]. Group 2: City-Specific Trends - Hot cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu saw stronger recovery in second-hand home markets compared to new homes [7]. - Cities such as Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Wuhan showed signs of weak recovery, with transaction levels returning to last year's figures [9]. - In contrast, cities like Hefei and Nanjing displayed insufficient growth momentum, with declining customer conversion rates [16][19]. Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - Strong product offerings, particularly new regulations for high-efficiency housing, have driven market interest, with new products achieving high sales rates [22][23]. - Well-developed infrastructure, such as transit-oriented developments and school districts, has become a key selling point for properties [27]. - Discounted pricing and strong marketing strategies for entry-level homes have contributed to increased sales volume [30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend into Q2 2025, with new home quality upgrades attracting second-hand home buyers [31][32]. - The average sales price of second-hand homes in core cities has increased, indicating a warming market that extends to first-time buyers [31].