楼市止跌回稳

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楼市回稳回暖进行时:从“银十”兑现到“小阳春”可期
21世纪经济报道· 2025-03-07 12:34
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook for the real estate market in 2025, highlighting a potential "small spring" in the housing market, driven by improved market conditions and supportive government policies [2][10][52]. Group 1: Market Recovery Indicators - Many respondents express optimism about the "small spring" in the real estate market this year, with expectations of a "big spring" in March based on current market activity in Shenzhen [2][52]. - The real estate market has shown signs of recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, with first-tier cities leading the way, followed by second-tier cities, and eventually lower-tier cities [12][26]. - In February, the second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou reached 5,977 units, a year-on-year increase of 135% [7]. Group 2: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - A series of supportive policies introduced since September 2024 have created a favorable environment for the real estate market, with over 760 regulatory measures implemented nationwide [11][34]. - The government work report on March 5 emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a commitment to further policy support [28]. - The "combination punch" of policies has been described as the strongest ever, aimed at stabilizing the market and restoring confidence among buyers and developers [35][36]. Group 3: Transaction and Price Trends - In February, first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai saw significant increases in transaction volumes, with Beijing achieving over 1,000 second-hand home transactions daily [8]. - The average new home prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.1% in January, marking a continuous increase for two months [23]. - The land market has also shown signs of recovery, with competitive bidding for quality land parcels, indicating improved market expectations [9][42]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the anticipated "small spring" materializes, the current market recovery cycle could extend beyond six months, transitioning from a policy goal to a reality [13]. - The article suggests that the recovery of the real estate market is closely tied to the performance of second-hand home prices and new home sales, which are critical indicators of market health [50][60]. - The ongoing recovery in the real estate market is expected to positively influence related sectors, including financing and land acquisition [39][41].