Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a vote of 51 to 50, which includes extending tax cuts from Trump's first term, exempting tips and overtime pay from taxes, and providing funding for defense and immigration enforcement [1] - The U.S. government announced the closure of the U.S. International Development Agency, which has been operational for nearly 64 years [2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 49, indicating continued contraction for four consecutive months, with new orders decreasing for five months [2] Group 2 - The Eurozone's inflation rate for June reached 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, aligning with the European Central Bank's medium-term target [3] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that while the inflation target has been met, the task is not complete, and future policy will depend on data [3] - South Korea's exports in June increased by 4.3%, with semiconductor exports rising by 11.6% to a record $14.97 billion [4] Group 3 - The dollar index fell by 0.05%, closing at 96.822, with the euro and pound gaining against the dollar [6] - The onshore Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar, closing at 7.1618, while the offshore yuan decreased slightly [6]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone, which reached the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% in June, is expected to decline in the coming months due to falling oil prices [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The recent rise in inflation was primarily driven by a surge in oil prices, which spiked over 10% due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East [1] - As oil prices are projected to decrease at the end of the month, the inflation rate is likely to follow suit [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is expected to lead the ECB to pause its actions later this month [1] - Tariff measures are anticipated to suppress European exports and exert downward pressure on commodity prices, which may prompt the ECB to implement interest rate cuts in the fall [1]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone has slightly increased to 2.0% in June from 1.9% in May, but overall price pressures are diminishing due to slowing wage growth and a persistently weak economy [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The inflation rate in the Eurozone rose to 2.0% in June, up from 1.9% in May [1] - Service sector inflation showed little rebound after an unusually low performance in May [1] - Weak demand for goods continues to hinder immediate consumer price pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The current state of inflation returning to a stable level is surprising given the significant uncertainties in the global economy [1] - There are ongoing risks of inflation surges, particularly due to oil price fluctuations and potential retaliatory tariffs from trade negotiations breaking down [1]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of tariffs on inflation in the Eurozone is considered limited by ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau [1] Group 1 - Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that the current inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are not significantly influenced by tariffs [1] - The ECB's focus remains on other factors contributing to inflation, rather than tariffs [1] - The statement reflects a broader understanding within the ECB regarding the complexities of inflation dynamics in the Eurozone [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) does not anticipate any surprises regarding wage developments in the eurozone [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation within the eurozone is expected to be limited [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The ECB, represented by Governor Villeroy, expresses confidence in the stability of wage growth, indicating no unexpected changes are foreseen [1] Inflation Dynamics - The influence of tariffs on inflation rates in the eurozone is assessed to be minimal, suggesting that external trade policies may not significantly affect the region's inflation outlook [1]

Group 1 - The euro is trading at approximately 1.1379 against the US dollar, showing a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous close of 1.1372 [1] - Spain's inflation rate decreased from 2.2% in April to 1.9% in May, while France's inflation rate fell from 0.9% to 0.6%, indicating a slowdown in price increases [1] - Economists expect the eurozone's inflation rate in May to be close to or below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut next week [2] Group 2 - The decline in Spain's inflation is attributed to lower prices in leisure activities and a decrease in electricity prices, with core inflation also showing a slight decline [2] - The market anticipates a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the ECB to 2.0%, marking the eighth rate cut since June 2024 [2] - The ECB is expected to adjust its inflation forecasts downward, as previous predictions did not account for the impact of US tariffs [2] Group 3 - Rising US tariffs may weaken eurozone inflation due to reduced demand for European goods, while cheaper Chinese goods may shift towards Europe [2] - The appreciation of the euro and declining energy prices, driven by slower global economic growth, are contributing to the easing of inflationary pressures [2] - The eurozone's economic growth has been partially supported by US companies stockpiling EU goods in response to tariffs, although overall inflationary pressures have eased [2] Group 4 - Despite a continued pullback in the euro against the dollar, the outlook remains bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating bullish signals, although signs of weakening momentum are emerging [2]

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 2.3% in May, the lowest level since January 2022, driven by a decrease in service inflation and energy prices [2][3][5] - The Eurozone's inflation rate for May dropped to 1.9%, significantly lower than the 2.2% recorded in April, primarily due to a decline in service inflation from 4.0% to 3.2% [2][4] - Major Eurozone economies such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain reported inflation rates of 2.1%, 0.6%, 1.9%, and 1.9% respectively in May [4] Group 2 - The market fully expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate down to 2% [6][8] - There is speculation that this may be the last rate cut in the current cycle, with future decisions potentially influenced by trade uncertainties and fiscal stimulus measures [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the ECB may pause further rate cuts after June, as they assess the urgency for additional monetary easing [7][8]

Core Points - Eurozone inflation in May was weaker than expected, leading to a slight increase in expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in July [1] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point cut on Thursday, with a 31% probability for further cuts in July, up from 28% previously [1] - The overall inflation rate in the Eurozone dropped from 2.2% in April to 1.9% in May, exceeding expectations [1]

金十数据6月3日讯，尽管全球贸易紧张加剧了较长期的价格压力，但周二数据显示欧元区通胀低于欧洲 央行目标，支撑了本周再次降息的预期。欧元区CPI从2.2%降至1.9%，低于预期的2.0%，原因是能源价 格下跌，服务业通胀大幅下降。欧盟统计机构欧盟统计局说，受服务价格增长从4.0%放缓至3.2%的推 动，更受关注的潜在通胀率（不包括波动较大的燃料和食品价格）从2.7%降至2.3%。鉴于薪资增长疲 弱、能源价格回落、欧元走强以及经济增长不温不火等指向通胀放缓的因素，市场几乎完全消化了周四 的降息。价格压力如此之弱，一些经济学家甚至预计通胀将继续低于欧洲央行2%的目标，直到2026年 的某个时候才会反弹。 欧元区通胀降至欧洲央行目标下方 支持本周降息预期 ...

欧元区通胀保持不变后，欧洲央行可进一步降息 金十数据5月2日讯，德国复兴信贷银行经济学家舍恩瓦尔德在一份报告中说，在数据显示欧元区4月份 通胀率保持在2.2%之后，欧洲央行应该可以自由地再次降息。她说，欧元走强使进口商品更便宜，再 加上贸易冲突对经济的抑制，应该足以在中期将消费者通胀率稳定在2%的目标附近。这为欧洲央行在6 月份再次降息留下了余地。然而，欧元区服务业的价格压力仍然居高不下，推高了核心通胀率。 ...