Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone has slightly increased to just above the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, indicating a generally stable inflation environment despite future risks [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The current inflation data supports the notion of overall stability in the inflation environment [1] - Economic growth remains weak, and future economic conditions are uncertain, which may influence ECB policy decisions [1] - There is a general market expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again, which could impact ECB's approach [1] Group 2: ECB Policy Decisions - The decision to pause interest rate cuts is considered logical given that rates are at neutral levels [1] - Some ECB policymakers may still advocate for another rate cut, although this likelihood is deemed low due to sufficient reasons to maintain current rates [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone's August CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in July, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and food, remained stable at 2.3% [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during the upcoming meeting on September 11, as indicated by the latest inflation data [1] Group 2 - ECB decision-makers generally support keeping interest rates stable, with the German central bank president describing the current economic state as "some kind of equilibrium" [2] - Some officials, however, suggest that the possibility of future rate cuts remains, citing uncertainties in the economic outlook [3] - The inflation data reveals a mixed performance across Eurozone countries, with France, Italy, and Spain showing lower-than-expected inflation, while Germany's inflation was slightly above expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar, currently trading around 1.17, with a slight increase of 0.23% from the previous close [1] Economic Indicators - Eurozone inflation remains unchanged at an annual rate of 2.0% for July, with core inflation also stable [1] - Food inflation is accelerating, and the base effect of oil prices may lead to a rebound in Eurozone inflation in the remaining months of the year [1] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider another rate cut in September, potentially lowering the rate to 1.75% [1] - A decrease in core inflation in August would further support the ECB's decision to cut rates [1] Market Dynamics - The Euro to USD exchange rate shows some momentum but is still within a consolidation range [1] - Key resistance levels for the Euro include the August high of 1.1742, with further targets at 1.1788 and 1.1830 [1] - A strong upward movement could challenge the September 2021 high of 1.1909, just below the significant psychological level of 1.2000 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that inflation in the Eurozone has stabilized, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy considerations by the European Central Bank [1] Group 2 - The statement from ECB Governing Council member Mahrouf suggests that the current inflation levels may lead to a reassessment of interest rates in the near future [1] - The stabilization of inflation could impact economic growth forecasts and investment strategies within the Eurozone [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, marking the first pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, amid moderate economic growth and inflation reaching the 2% target [1][2] - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively, with inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2027 set at 2.0% and 2026 at 1.6% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding US-EU trade negotiations, particularly the potential for tariffs up to 30% on EU goods, is a significant external factor impacting the ECB's policy space [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the ongoing trade negotiations are affecting corporate decision-making and may lead to a shift in production capacity towards the eurozone, potentially lowering product prices and increasing price instability [2] - The ECB's assessment indicates a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in actual GDP for the eurozone in Q1, driven by preemptive shipping by businesses and stronger consumption and investment [2][3] - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the eurozone rose to 51 from 50.6 in June, indicating a notable expansion in the services sector, although manufacturing remains in contraction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, emphasizing that current inflation has stabilized at the mid-term target of 2% and future policies will adopt a "data-dependent, gradual assessment" approach without pre-setting interest rate paths [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB's governing council unanimously decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged during the July meeting [1]. - Future monetary policy will follow a "data-dependent" and "gradual meeting assessment" principle, considering inflation outlook, economic data, potential inflation dynamics, and the transmission effects of monetary policy [1][5]. - ECB President Lagarde stated that decisions will be based on the complete information available at each meeting, without pre-setting specific interest rate paths [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Eurozone's economic growth in Q1 exceeded expectations, driven by preemptive export expansions, recovering private consumption, and increased investment activities [1]. - The unemployment rate in May was 6.3%, close to the lowest level since the euro's introduction, supporting consumer resilience alongside actual income growth and healthy private sector balance sheets [2]. - The June annual inflation rate for the Eurozone was 2.0%, with energy prices rising month-on-month but remaining low year-on-year, and food inflation slightly decreasing to 3.1% [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - High actual and expected tariffs, a strong euro, and geopolitical uncertainties have led to a decline in corporate investment willingness, posing a significant obstacle to current economic growth [2]. - Global trade tensions, deteriorating financial market sentiment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts may suppress exports and drag down investment and consumption [3]. - The fragmentation of global supply chains is pushing up import prices, while extreme weather and climate crises could lead to unexpected increases in food prices [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Conditions - Since the last meeting, market interest rates, particularly long-term rates, have risen, but the cumulative effects of previous rate cuts continue to show [5]. - The new loan rate for enterprises in May decreased to 3.7%, while bond issuance costs fell to 3.6%, indicating an increase in direct financing [5]. - The ECB is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure inflation remains sustainably stable at the target level and to maintain the smooth operation of monetary policy transmission mechanisms [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Belgian Central Bank, Pierre Wunsch, highlighted the risk of inflation in the Eurozone remaining persistently below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% due to a bleak economic growth outlook and multiple factors exerting pressure on inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - Since June of last year, the ECB has cut interest rates by a total of 200 basis points to the current "neutral" rate of 2%, but Wunsch believes this level may be insufficient to address current challenges [1]. - He emphasized the necessity of providing additional policy support if economic recovery continues to be delayed and output remains below potential levels [1]. Group 2: Currency and Inflation Risks - The recent rise of the euro against the dollar to 1.18, the highest level since the end of 2021, has suppressed inflation and posed pressure on economic growth [1]. - Wunsch identified several risk factors contributing to downward pressure on inflation, including cheap imports, low energy prices, lack of tariff retaliation, a strong euro, and slowing wage growth [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The ECB forecasts that inflation will remain below the target for 18 months starting from the third quarter of 2025, with expectations that it will only return to the 2% target level by early 2027 [1]. - Financial markets anticipate that the deposit rate may drop to 1.75% within this year [1]. - Despite these challenges, Wunsch expressed confidence in the resilience of the Eurozone economy and suggested that concerns about excessive rate cuts should not be overstated [1]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy - Wunsch specifically mentioned Germany's large-scale fiscal expansion plan, describing it as having "significant disruptive implications," and believes that countries capable of implementing fiscal stimulus will provide important boosts to the economy [2]. - Recent Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data also showed some optimistic signs, further supporting his cautiously optimistic outlook on future economic developments [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a vote of 51 to 50, which includes extending tax cuts from Trump's first term, exempting tips and overtime pay from taxes, and providing funding for defense and immigration enforcement [1] - The U.S. government announced the closure of the U.S. International Development Agency, which has been operational for nearly 64 years [2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 49, indicating continued contraction for four consecutive months, with new orders decreasing for five months [2] Group 2 - The Eurozone's inflation rate for June reached 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, aligning with the European Central Bank's medium-term target [3] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that while the inflation target has been met, the task is not complete, and future policy will depend on data [3] - South Korea's exports in June increased by 4.3%, with semiconductor exports rising by 11.6% to a record $14.97 billion [4] Group 3 - The dollar index fell by 0.05%, closing at 96.822, with the euro and pound gaining against the dollar [6] - The onshore Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar, closing at 7.1618, while the offshore yuan decreased slightly [6]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone, which reached the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% in June, is expected to decline in the coming months due to falling oil prices [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The recent rise in inflation was primarily driven by a surge in oil prices, which spiked over 10% due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East [1] - As oil prices are projected to decrease at the end of the month, the inflation rate is likely to follow suit [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is expected to lead the ECB to pause its actions later this month [1] - Tariff measures are anticipated to suppress European exports and exert downward pressure on commodity prices, which may prompt the ECB to implement interest rate cuts in the fall [1]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone has slightly increased to 2.0% in June from 1.9% in May, but overall price pressures are diminishing due to slowing wage growth and a persistently weak economy [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The inflation rate in the Eurozone rose to 2.0% in June, up from 1.9% in May [1] - Service sector inflation showed little rebound after an unusually low performance in May [1] - Weak demand for goods continues to hinder immediate consumer price pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The current state of inflation returning to a stable level is surprising given the significant uncertainties in the global economy [1] - There are ongoing risks of inflation surges, particularly due to oil price fluctuations and potential retaliatory tariffs from trade negotiations breaking down [1]