Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not provided explicit guidance on future interest rate cuts but has released positive signals regarding economic fundamentals, inflation expectations, and financial markets, indirectly raising expectations that the "rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end" [1][4] Economic Activity Outlook - In September, the ECB noted continued growth in manufacturing and services, emphasizing that previous rate cuts and government fiscal policies have created positive momentum for the economy [2] - The ECB believes that rate cuts will further stimulate consumption and investment, with government spending on infrastructure and defense expected to support investment in the Eurozone [2] External Economic Environment - The ECB has shifted its stance on external risks, indicating that while trade tensions and a strong euro may suppress growth in the short term, these negative impacts are expected to dissipate by 2026 [2][3] - The recent trade agreement between the US and EU is anticipated to reduce uncertainty, leading the ECB to view the risks to Eurozone economic growth as more balanced [2] Inflation Outlook - ECB President Lagarde stated that the factors driving inflation are dissipating, leading to a more stable inflation outlook, with current inflation around 2%, close to the medium-term target [3][4] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate an upward revision for 2025 and 2026 inflation rates, with projections of 2.1% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026, while the 2027 forecast was slightly lowered to 1.9% [3] Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB maintains that despite inflation being below target, there is no need to alter monetary policy due to "minor deviations" [4] - The ECB has signaled a commitment to maintaining current interest rates and will continue to adopt a "data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting" approach to determine appropriate monetary policy [4] Market Stability - The ECB has reassured markets regarding the stability of the Eurozone sovereign bond market, indicating that it has the necessary tools to address risks if market conditions deteriorate [4][5] - Despite a reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts, some institutions still believe that the ECB may adopt a more dovish stance if certain factors arise [4][6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include financial market volatility and unexpected changes in external monetary policies, particularly if the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive rate-cutting stance [5][6] - The ECB is currently more optimistic about external conditions and internal momentum, which supports its decision to maintain the current monetary policy stance [5][6]

【文/观察者网 王世纯】综合"政客"新闻（Politico），欧洲新闻（Euronews）报道，当地时间9月9日， 法国民意调查机构Cluster17公司和《欧洲大陆》（Le Grand Continent ）杂志公布的一项最新民意调查 显示，有77%的欧洲国家公民认为欧盟高层与美国特朗普政府达成的贸易协议出卖了广大欧洲人的利 益，52%的人认为该协议是对欧洲的"羞辱"，75%的人认为欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩应该辞职。 冯德莱恩 IC Photo 这次民意调查于8月底至9月初在欧盟五个主要国家（法国、西班牙、意大利、德国和波兰）开展，这些 国家占欧盟总人口的 60%以上。该民意调查在每个国家约有1000人参与，总共调查了5203人。 大部分批评源自今年夏天最终达成的欧盟—美国贸易协定。 此前，美国总统特朗普曾威胁，如果未能达成协议，他将对欧洲出口产品征收30%的关税。 尽管最终妥协方案将关税上限设定为15%，低于特朗普威胁的30%，但远高于此前美欧间平均不足5%的 关税水平，但这一结果却让许多欧洲人感到失望。此外，欧洲方面尚未说服美方将葡萄酒和烈酒这一对 欧洲人而言具有战略意义的行业纳入该清单。 调查显示，52 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 他与其他欧洲议会议员还建议加入"日落条款"（sunset clause）：除非明确延长，否则欧盟向美国作出 的关税让步将在特定时间自动失效。欧盟承诺的关税减免适用于所有美国工业进口品及部分农产品。 凯瑟琳·范·布雷姆普特（Kathleen van Brempt）表示，她所在的社会党与民主党进步联盟党团（Socialist and Democrats Group）反对该协议，称其"对欧盟不利"，且"因向美国提供其他国家无法获得的关税减 让，违反了世界贸易组织（WTO）规则"。"我们不会草率批准这份协议，"她说。 左翼党团（Left Group）联合领导人马丁·席尔德万（Martin Schirdewan）称，欧盟已"妥协让步"。"消费 者将支付更高价格，行业将蒙受损失，就业岗位也会减少，"他表示。 极右翼阵营的蒂埃里·马里亚尼（Thierry Mariani）对此表示认同。这位法国极右翼党国民联盟议员称欧 盟"软弱"，"特朗普总统直接定下了条件"。 绿党（Greens）议员安娜·卡瓦齐尼（Anna Cavazzini）指出，特朗普在签署这份无约束力协议后 ...

西雅尔多说，在美欧新的贸易协定框架内，欧洲汽车供应商向美国支付的出口关税是现行关税的6倍， 而欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩却为此高兴。"不会感到羞愧吗？竟然有这样一个人代表欧盟"。 此外，关于协定中约定欧盟将在美国投资并购买美国能源，西雅尔多认为，一家公司是否在美国投资， 是该公司自己决定的，欧盟委员会与此无关。美欧之间没有油气运输管线，如何将能源运至欧洲？ 当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成新贸易协议，对欧盟输美商品征收15%的 关税。冯德莱恩称，15%税率是欧委会能够达成的最佳结果。此外，钢铁和铝、芯片、烈酒三大关键领 域的关税协议仍待定。特朗普称，欧盟还承诺购买美国7500亿美元的能源产品，并在美追加投资6000亿 美元。此外，欧盟将大规模购买美国军事装备。协议达成后，欧洲各界人士纷纷发声，对此表示批评或 担忧。 （总台记者 卜卫军） 当地时间29日，匈牙利外长西雅尔多在一期播出的网络节目中表示，美欧贸易协定将重创欧洲支柱产业 ——汽车业。 ...

周一，美元指数持续走强，兑主要货币全线走高，特别是兑欧元和日元的涨幅引发市场广泛关注。美元 兑欧元单日涨幅超过1.2%，创下5月中旬以来最大升幅；兑日元上涨0.59%，至148.535，兑瑞士法郎也 显著上涨，投资者情绪似乎正由避险转向博弈美国经济企稳与地缘政治缓和带来的汇率趋势重估。 过去数月，美元受到双重压力。一方面，美国高企的财政赤字与国债发行规模不断扩大，增加了美元长 期贬值的预期；另一方面，美联储年内维持高利率周期但释放出政策拐点预期，也使得投资者一度转向 更具利差优势的资产。但随着最新美欧贸易协定的落地，美元短线获得地缘政策层面的提振，带动避险 货币瑞郎和日元出现调整。 欧元此次回落尤为显著，欧元兑美元跌至1.1591，基本抹去了7月以来的全部涨幅。这表明，尽管欧元 区经济体在制造业数据上有所修复，但政策层面和利率路径依然缺乏明确方向，市场正在重新审视欧元 资产的配置性价比。同时，欧洲央行面临能源价格回升与核心通胀居高不下的两难局面，使其货币政策 更难释放持续鹰派信号，进一步限制欧元汇率上行空间。 从利率角度看，本周即将召开的美联储和日本央行会议将成为决定短期汇率走向的关键。尽管市场普遍 预期两家 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美欧贸易协定接近达成，国内风险偏好迅速降温，金价跟随银价回落； 美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲主要股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年 期美债收益率跌0.99个基点报4.388%；美元指数涨0.19%报97.67，离岸人民币对美 元贬值报7.1681；COMEX黄金期货跌0.77%报3371.3美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国新办新闻发布会、美国7月达拉斯联储商业活动指数。美欧贸 易协定接近达成，虽同时暗示美联储降息，但国内商品情绪大幅降温，金价跟随银 价回落。沪金溢价扩大至0.6元/ ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-EU trade negotiations revolves around tariffs on automobiles and agricultural products, with a potential temporary trade agreement being sought [1][2] - If the negotiations succeed in capping agricultural tariffs at or below 10% and making concessions on automobile tariffs, it could significantly reduce global supply chain pressures and improve corporate profit outlooks [1][4] - The EU is pushing for a 10% tariff on agricultural exports, while the US has proposed a 17% tariff, indicating a gap in expectations that needs to be bridged [3] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on automotive tariffs and has suggested delaying the implementation of retaliatory measures against US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are set to automatically resume soon [2][3] - Any potential agreement is heavily dependent on the personal views of former President Donald Trump, who has not publicly commented on the ongoing negotiations [2][3] - The outcome of the trade talks will have significant implications for global stock markets, with a positive result potentially leading to a continuation of low volatility and upward trends [4] Group 3 - The US is considering sector-specific tariffs on industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with the final results of investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act expected soon [5][6] - The EU is preparing countermeasures in case negotiations fail, including potential tariffs on $24.5 billion worth of US goods and an additional list targeting up to €72 billion [7] - The EU's countermeasures are strategically aimed at politically sensitive US states and industries, indicating a calculated approach to trade relations [7]