Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not provided explicit guidance on future interest rate cuts but has released positive signals regarding economic fundamentals, inflation expectations, and financial markets, indirectly raising expectations that the "rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end" [1][4] Economic Activity Outlook - In September, the ECB noted continued growth in manufacturing and services, emphasizing that previous rate cuts and government fiscal policies have created positive momentum for the economy [2] - The ECB believes that rate cuts will further stimulate consumption and investment, with government spending on infrastructure and defense expected to support investment in the Eurozone [2] External Economic Environment - The ECB has shifted its stance on external risks, indicating that while trade tensions and a strong euro may suppress growth in the short term, these negative impacts are expected to dissipate by 2026 [2][3] - The recent trade agreement between the US and EU is anticipated to reduce uncertainty, leading the ECB to view the risks to Eurozone economic growth as more balanced [2] Inflation Outlook - ECB President Lagarde stated that the factors driving inflation are dissipating, leading to a more stable inflation outlook, with current inflation around 2%, close to the medium-term target [3][4] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate an upward revision for 2025 and 2026 inflation rates, with projections of 2.1% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026, while the 2027 forecast was slightly lowered to 1.9% [3] Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB maintains that despite inflation being below target, there is no need to alter monetary policy due to "minor deviations" [4] - The ECB has signaled a commitment to maintaining current interest rates and will continue to adopt a "data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting" approach to determine appropriate monetary policy [4] Market Stability - The ECB has reassured markets regarding the stability of the Eurozone sovereign bond market, indicating that it has the necessary tools to address risks if market conditions deteriorate [4][5] - Despite a reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts, some institutions still believe that the ECB may adopt a more dovish stance if certain factors arise [4][6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include financial market volatility and unexpected changes in external monetary policies, particularly if the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive rate-cutting stance [5][6] - The ECB is currently more optimistic about external conditions and internal momentum, which supports its decision to maintain the current monetary policy stance [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - A recent survey indicates widespread dissatisfaction among European citizens regarding the EU-US trade agreement, with a significant majority believing it undermines European interests and calling for the resignation of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [1][3][6]. Group 1: Survey Findings - 77% of European citizens feel that the trade agreement reached with the Trump administration sold out their interests [1][3]. - 52% of respondents consider the agreement a "humiliation" for Europe, with particularly strong sentiments in France (65%) and Spain (56%) [3][6]. - 89% of French respondents express criticism towards the EU-US trade agreement [3]. Group 2: Public Sentiment Towards Leadership - 75% of respondents believe von der Leyen failed to protect European interests, with only 19% giving her a positive rating [6]. - 41% of respondents express complete distrust in von der Leyen, while 31% indicate they are somewhat distrustful [6]. - 39% of respondents strongly support her resignation, and 21% somewhat support it, while only 8% strongly oppose her resignation [6]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - 77% of respondents think the trade agreement primarily benefits the US economy, with 42% believing European businesses will suffer the most [6]. - 70% of respondents are prepared to boycott American-made products [6]. Group 4: EU Membership Sentiment - Despite the dissatisfaction with the trade agreement, 70% of respondents wish to remain in the EU, while only 24% support leaving, similar to the UK's exit [6].

Core Viewpoint - The European Parliament is calling for modifications to the EU-US trade agreement, raising concerns about the fragile trade truce between the two parties [2][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Concerns - The European Parliament's majority party members criticized the trade agreement as being "one-sided in favor of the US" during a meeting with EU trade officials [2][3]. - The trade agreement includes a commitment from the EU to lower tariffs on certain US goods, while the US currently imposes a 15% tariff on most EU exports [2][7]. - The Trade Committee Chair, Bernd Lange, indicated that the agreement may be amended during the legislative approval process, highlighting issues such as high tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, which currently stand at 50% [3]. Group 2: Political Reactions - Various political factions, including the Socialist and Democrats Group, expressed opposition to the agreement, arguing it is detrimental to the EU and violates WTO rules by providing tariff concessions not available to other countries [3][4]. - The Left Group's co-leader, Martin Schirdewan, stated that the agreement would lead to higher consumer prices, industry losses, and job reductions [3]. - The far-right faction, represented by Thierry Mariani, criticized the EU's perceived weakness in negotiations, suggesting that the terms were dictated by former President Trump [4]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes and Pressures - Despite the opposition, leaders from various countries may pressure their party members to support the agreement in the final vote to avoid a transatlantic trade war [7]. - EU trade official Sabine Weyand claimed that the agreement's terms are better than those offered to other US trade partners, noting that the US imposes a 15% tariff on most EU exports, with car tariffs reduced from 27.5% to 15% [7]. - Weyand also mentioned that during a temporary mechanism, EU exports to the US did not decline despite the tariffs imposed [7].

Core Viewpoint - The new US-EU trade agreement is expected to severely impact Europe's automotive industry, with European automotive suppliers facing export tariffs six times higher than current rates [2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Implications - The export tariffs for European automotive suppliers to the US will be six times the current tariffs under the new trade agreement [2]. - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed satisfaction with the agreement, which raises questions about her representation of the EU [2]. - Concerns were raised regarding the feasibility of transporting energy from the US to Europe, as there are no existing oil and gas pipelines between the two regions [2]. Group 2: Investment and Energy Purchases - The agreement includes provisions for the EU to invest in the US and purchase American energy products, but the decision to invest lies with individual companies, not the EU Commission [2]. - President Trump announced that the EU would commit to purchasing $750 billion worth of US energy products and invest an additional $600 billion in the US [2]. - The agreement also includes pending tariff negotiations in key sectors such as steel, aluminum, chips, and spirits [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles is the strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies, particularly the euro and yen, driven by a recent US-EU tariff agreement that signals a reduction in global trade tensions [1][3]. - The dollar's rise against the euro exceeded 1.2% in a single day, marking the largest increase since mid-May, while it rose 0.59% against the yen, indicating a shift in investor sentiment from risk aversion to optimism regarding the US economy [1][3]. - The euro has notably declined, with the euro to dollar exchange rate dropping to 1.1591, erasing all gains since July, reflecting a lack of clear direction in European monetary policy despite some recovery in manufacturing data [3][4]. Group 2 - The upcoming meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are expected to be crucial in determining short-term currency trends, with market expectations leaning towards no changes in policy [4]. - The current yield on US two-year bonds has risen to 3.93%, providing support for the dollar against lower-yielding currencies, which is a key factor in maintaining the dollar's strength [4]. - Political pressures on the Federal Reserve, including calls for interest rate cuts, may impact market perceptions of the Fed's independence and policy credibility, influencing the dollar's risk premium [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The approaching of a US-EU trade agreement has led to a rapid cooling of domestic risk appetite, causing gold and silver prices to decline. The optimistic expectation of the trade agreement and the high expectation of interest rate cuts have made the gold price fluctuate. The decline in silver price is more significant, and the downward pressure on silver price increases [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation. The gold price is still likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US-EU trade agreement is close to being reached, domestic risk appetite cools rapidly, and the gold price falls following the silver price. US stocks rise slightly, European stocks are mixed, US bond yields are mixed, the 10-year US bond yield drops 0.99 basis points to 4.388%, the US dollar index rises 0.19% to 97.67, and the offshore RMB depreciates against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US-EU trade agreement is close to being reached, domestic risk appetite cools rapidly, and the silver price drops significantly. US stocks rise slightly, European stocks are mixed, US bond yields are mixed, the 10-year US bond yield drops 0.99 basis points to 4.388%, the US dollar index rises 0.19% to 97.67, and the offshore RMB depreciates against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -4.15, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increases by 900 kilograms to 30258 kilograms; the 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreases [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is -27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreases by 1467 kilograms to 1187254 kilograms; the 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreases [6]. 3. Today's Focus - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" series of themes, with the Director of the State Taxation Administration introducing the tax reform and development during the 14th Five - Year Plan period and answering questions. - At 18:00, the UK's July CBI retail sales difference will be released. - At 22:30, the US July Dallas Fed business activity index will be released [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The approaching of the US-EU trade agreement, the cooling of domestic commodity sentiment, and the high expectation of interest rate cuts make the gold price fluctuate. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making the gold price difficult to fall [4][10]. - **Silver**: The domestic commodity sentiment cools significantly, and the silver price drops sharply. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil, and the silver price mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on the silver price [6][13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On July 25, 2025, the long position volume is 216,889, a decrease of 1,802 (-0.82%) compared with July 24; the short position volume is 66,199, an increase of 2,411 (3.78%); the net position is 150,690, a decrease of 4,213 (-2.72%) [31]. - **Silver**: On July 25, 2025, the long position volume is 448,932, a decrease of 4,094 (-0.90%) compared with July 24; the short position volume is 348,227, a decrease of 6,851 (-1.93%); the net position is 100,705, an increase of 2,757 (2.81%) [33].

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-EU trade negotiations revolves around tariffs on automobiles and agricultural products, with a potential temporary trade agreement being sought [1][2] - If the negotiations succeed in capping agricultural tariffs at or below 10% and making concessions on automobile tariffs, it could significantly reduce global supply chain pressures and improve corporate profit outlooks [1][4] - The EU is pushing for a 10% tariff on agricultural exports, while the US has proposed a 17% tariff, indicating a gap in expectations that needs to be bridged [3] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on automotive tariffs and has suggested delaying the implementation of retaliatory measures against US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are set to automatically resume soon [2][3] - Any potential agreement is heavily dependent on the personal views of former President Donald Trump, who has not publicly commented on the ongoing negotiations [2][3] - The outcome of the trade talks will have significant implications for global stock markets, with a positive result potentially leading to a continuation of low volatility and upward trends [4] Group 3 - The US is considering sector-specific tariffs on industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with the final results of investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act expected soon [5][6] - The EU is preparing countermeasures in case negotiations fail, including potential tariffs on $24.5 billion worth of US goods and an additional list targeting up to €72 billion [7] - The EU's countermeasures are strategically aimed at politically sensitive US states and industries, indicating a calculated approach to trade relations [7]