Core Viewpoint - The construction of Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to drive rapid growth in the aviation transport market, with Hainan Airlines planning to leverage relevant policies to expand international routes and enhance service offerings [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Hainan Airlines reported a net loss of 9.21 billion yuan, marking a significant decline from the previous year's profit of 3.11 billion yuan, making it the only unprofitable private airline among its peers [2][4]. - The airline's financial struggles were attributed to factors such as incomplete recovery of international routes, intensified domestic competition, high oil prices, and exchange rate fluctuations [4]. Exchange Rate Impact - Exchange rate losses significantly impacted Hainan Airlines' performance, with a reported financial exchange loss of 13.68 billion yuan in 2024, which was a major factor affecting profitability [7]. - The company's high level of foreign currency liabilities, totaling 648.47 billion yuan, exacerbates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on its financial health [5][7]. Debt Structure - Hainan Airlines has a high debt ratio, with asset-liability ratios of 98.91% and 98.75% at the end of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, respectively [7]. - The company plans to improve its debt structure through business development and potential equity financing [9]. Fleet Management - Hainan Airlines is actively reducing its fleet of wide-body aircraft, which are less flexible and have higher operating costs, by terminating leases and selling excess planes [10][11]. - The airline has opened 22 new international routes in 2024, aiming to increase the utilization of its wide-body aircraft and improve operational efficiency [11]. Future Outlook - By early 2025, Hainan Airlines expects to fully restore its international flight capacity to pre-pandemic levels, with plans to expand further [12]. - The airline is strategically positioning itself in second-tier international markets, benefiting from local subsidies for international route development [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue is expected to be 13.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.75%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 208.32% [8] - The report indicates that the company's Q4 performance was significantly impacted by asset impairment and foreign exchange losses, but profitability is expected to gradually recover [8] - The lithium price is anticipated to stabilize at the bottom range, and the company is expected to benefit from the gradual digestion of high-priced inventory, highlighting its cost advantages [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 40.503 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 13.063 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to recover to 1.624 billion yuan by 2025, with further increases to 1.861 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.404 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -4.82 yuan in 2024, recovering to 0.99 yuan in 2025, 1.13 yuan in 2026, and 1.46 yuan in 2027 [1] - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 5.554 billion yuan, with a significant decrease in operating cash flow in Q4 [9] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 30.99 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 50.861 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -6.43 for 2024, which is expected to improve to 31.31 in 2025 [1][9] - The company's book value per share is 25.53 yuan, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 28.39% [6] Operational Insights - The report notes that the company’s inventory levels have decreased, with a significant reduction in high-priced inventory impacting profitability [8] - The production guidance for the company's operations indicates a recovery in output and sales, with expectations for increased shipments in 2025 [8] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on cost management and operational efficiency to navigate market challenges [8]