Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has surged to 163,100 tons, significantly increasing from the year's low of around 100,000 tons, indicating a clear imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic zinc market, characterized by a surge in supply and weak consumption [1][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since August, a rare divergence has emerged in the domestic and international zinc markets, creating an "internal weakness and external strength" scenario, with LME zinc prices rising from approximately $2,700/ton to a peak of $3,004/ton, while domestic zinc prices fluctuated between 22,000 and 22,500 yuan/ton [1][3]. - The extreme divergence in prices has led to a significant drop in the Shanghai-London ratio, reaching a low of 7.4, resulting in import losses exceeding 5,000 yuan/ton, the highest level since 2022 [1][4]. Processing Fees - There has been a notable divergence in processing fees for zinc concentrates, with imported processing fees rising while domestic processing fees have declined. As of September 20, domestic processing fees fell to around 3,850 yuan/ton, while imported processing fees rebounded to over $110/ton [5][6]. - The primary reason for this divergence is the deteriorating Shanghai-London ratio, which has led domestic smelters to prefer purchasing domestic concentrates, tightening supply and reducing processing fees for domestic materials [7]. Production and Consumption - Domestic zinc mine production in August was 370,000 tons, remaining stable month-on-month but up 3% year-on-year. The cumulative production from January to August reached 2.75 million tons, also a 3% increase year-on-year [9]. - Domestic refined zinc production in August reached 620,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [10]. - Zinc consumption in August was weak, with actual consumption at 590,000 tons, down 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn [12][13]. Inventory Trends - As of September 20, domestic zinc ingot inventory reached 163,100 tons, an increase of nearly 90,000 tons from the year's low, with expectations that it may reach around 250,000 tons by year-end [14]. - In contrast, LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, recently dropping below 50,000 tons, indicating a potential for price pressure if the inventory trend reverses [15]. Market Outlook - The overall zinc market fundamentals appear weak due to increased supply, high processing fees, record domestic smelting output, and weak consumption. However, the market has not shown significant weakness due to macroeconomic support and the ongoing decline in LME inventories [16][17]. - Short-term predictions suggest that the macroeconomic environment, with major economies entering a rate-cutting cycle, may provide support for metal prices, although domestic supply remains ample, limiting the potential for significant price increases [18].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum futures prices are showing a strong performance, with a slight increase observed on October 14, 2023, indicating a stable market trend for aluminum [1] LME Aluminum Futures Market Review - On October 14, 2023, LME aluminum futures opened at $2759.5 per ton and are currently at $2763 per ton, reflecting a 0.22% increase. The intraday high reached $2770.5 per ton, while the lowest point was $2759 per ton [1] - On October 13, 2023, the LME aluminum futures had the following prices: opening at $2754.0, reaching a high of $2775.5, a low of $2744.0, and closing at $2757.0, which is a 0.40% increase [1] Aluminum Market News - As of October 13, 2023, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at the LME totaled 405,700 tons, with 100,300 tons being canceled, resulting in a decrease of 2,825 tons. The total aluminum inventory stands at 506,000 tons, also down by 2,825 tons [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 63,151 tons, which is an increase of 4,032 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.55, with the import profit and loss standing at -2,475.83 yuan per ton, compared to -2,395.89 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations at high levels, with a current price of $2778.5 per ton, reflecting a slight decline of 0.14% from the opening price [1] Group 2 - On October 9, LME aluminum futures opened at $2749.0, reached a high of $2807.5, and closed at $2782.5, marking an increase of 1.13% [2] - As of October 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 58,894 tons, a decrease of 227 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.56, with an import loss of -2,375.01 yuan per ton, compared to -1,686.9 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 403,475 tons, with canceled receipts decreasing by 2,500 tons, and total aluminum inventory increased by 2,200 tons to 508,600 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]

Report Title - Zinc: Significant Cross - Market Contradictions, Zinc Prices Weakly Trending [1][6][11][19] Report Core View - On the early morning of September 18, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Although the long - term outlook for LME zinc has weakened, the current low inventory situation of LME zinc shows a strong Back structure, providing some support for the near - term. In the domestic market, as smelting enterprises are approaching winter stockpiling, zinc concentrate processing fees are showing a divergence. The import zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) continues to rise, while the average domestic zinc concentrate TC has slightly declined. As the zinc ore import window closes, the increase in overseas zinc ore TC is expected to slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. Additionally, the SHFE - LME ratio has reached a relatively low level. If the ratio further declines and the zinc ingot export window opens, the liquidation of long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage funds will also provide some support for SHFE zinc. Overall, the SHFE - LME ratio is expected to continue to trend weakly, but the decline rate may slow down, and domestic zinc prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [2][3][19] Summary by Related Catalogs 2022 Zinc Ingot Export Window Opening Review - In late 2021, rising domestic thermal coal prices increased domestic zinc smelting costs, and rising natural gas prices increased overseas zinc smelting costs in Europe and other regions, leading to a decline in smelting output and a joint increase in the prices of high - energy - consuming products such as aluminum and zinc. After the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on coal in October 2021 to study measures to intervene in coal prices, domestic energy prices quickly fell, significantly reducing the smelting costs of domestic aluminum and zinc smelters. Due to high overseas energy prices, the supply of LME zinc smelting remained tight, and LME zinc continued to rise while SHFE zinc's follow - up increase was relatively limited. From mid - October 2021, the SHFE - LME ratio began to decline, reaching a minimum of 0.97 in April 2022 after excluding exchange rates. From January to May 2022, the cumulative zinc ingot exports were 5.35 tons, a significant increase compared to 0.27 tons in the same period of 2021. From January to May 2022, the cumulative zinc ore imports were 1.519 million physical tons, a 7.5% decrease compared to 1.642 million physical tons in the same period of 2021 [6] Review of the Current Round of SHFE - LME Contradictions in Zinc Ingots - At the beginning of 2025, due to a lower Benchmark for overseas zinc smelters compared to previous years, there was a high expectation of overseas zinc smelting production cuts. In contrast, the domestic zinc industry was in an oversupply cycle, with TC continuously rising and zinc smelting profits recovering quickly, causing the SHFE - LME ratio to decline slowly. Since mid - April 2025, the LME zinc ingot market has been continuously de - stocking, the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure and the 3 - 15 month spread structure have oscillated upwards, LME zinc has shown strength, and the decline rate of the SHFE - LME ratio has accelerated. Since late June 2025, domestic zinc ingot social inventories have continued to accumulate, the SHFE zinc monthly spread has returned to the Contango structure, and SHFE zinc has struggled to rise. The structural contradictions in the overseas LME zinc market have intensified, the LME zinc monthly structure has changed to the Back structure. Coupled with the market's trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in August, the SHFE - LME ratio has declined at an accelerated pace [11] Future Price and Ratio Outlook - On the early morning of September 18, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Although the long - term outlook for LME zinc has weakened, the current low inventory situation of LME zinc shows a strong Back structure, providing some support for the near - term. In the domestic market, as smelting enterprises are approaching winter stockpiling, zinc concentrate processing fees are showing a divergence. The import zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) continues to rise, while the average domestic zinc concentrate TC has slightly declined. As the zinc ore import window closes, the increase in overseas zinc ore TC is expected to slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. Additionally, the SHFE - LME ratio has reached a relatively low level. If the ratio further declines and the zinc ingot export window opens, the liquidation of long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage funds will also provide some support for SHFE zinc. Overall, the SHFE - LME ratio is expected to continue to trend weakly, but the decline rate may slow down, and domestic zinc prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [2][3][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a slight upward trend, with current trading prices showing a minor increase compared to previous sessions [1][2]. - On September 2, LME aluminum futures opened at $2619.5 per ton and reached a current price of $2624 per ton, reflecting a 0.17% increase [1]. - The trading range for LME aluminum on September 1 included an opening price of $2614.0, a high of $2620.0, a low of $2605.0, and a closing price of $2619.5, indicating a 0.04% change [2]. Group 2 - As of September 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 58,529 tons, which is a decrease of 100 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.9, with an import loss of -1,323.15 yuan per ton, compared to -1,288.51 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]. - LME's registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,300 tons, indicating no change, while total aluminum inventory remained at 481,050 tons, also unchanged [2].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a weak trend, opening at $2614 per ton and currently at $2611 per ton, with a decline of 0.31% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2619 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2608.5 per ton [1] - On August 29, LME aluminum futures opened at $2607.5, peaked at $2622.0, and closed at $2618.5, reflecting a change of 0.40% [2] Group 2 - As of August 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 58,629 tons, an increase of 1,354 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.93, with an import loss of -1,288.51 yuan per ton, slightly improved from -1,318.71 yuan per ton the previous day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons, and total aluminum inventory at 481,050 tons, also down by 100 tons [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in LME copper futures prices, with a current price of $9835.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.60% increase from the opening price of $9795 per ton [1] - On August 13, LME copper futures opened at $9829.0, reached a high of $9865.0, and closed at $9781.0, showing a decrease of 0.61% [1] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.09 on August 13, indicating an import loss of 75.3 yuan per ton, slightly improved from the previous day's loss of 75.33 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - As of August 13, LME registered copper warrants totaled 144,325 tons, with canceled warrants at 11,550 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [1] - LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons, reaching a total of 155,875 tons on August 13 [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper futures warrants to 22,800 tons, down by 3,496 tons from the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices continue to decline, with a current price of $2607.5 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.29% from the opening price [1] Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Performance - On August 11, LME aluminum futures opened at $2606 per ton and reached a high of $2615 per ton and a low of $2605 per ton [1] - On August 8, the LME aluminum futures closed at $2614.0 per ton, with a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous day [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Updates - As of August 8, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at LME totaled 456,350 tons, with 14,225 tons canceled, remaining unchanged [1] - The total aluminum inventory at LME increased by 1,075 tons to reach 470,575 tons [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.9, with an import loss of -1,581.27 yuan per ton, improving from -1,662.79 yuan per ton the previous trading day [1] - On August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 1,568 tons to 43,599 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with a slight decline observed in the latest trading session [1] Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Performance - On August 8, LME aluminum futures opened at $2612.5 per ton and are currently at $2608 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.10% [1] - The trading session on August 7 saw LME aluminum futures open at $2619.0, reach a high of $2641.5, a low of $2501.0, and close at $2610.0, marking a decline of 0.51% [1] Group 2: Market Data and Inventory - As of August 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 42,031 tons, a decrease of 631 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.87, with an import loss of -1662.79 yuan per ton, compared to -1293.96 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 455,275 tons with 14,225 tons canceled, while total aluminum inventory increased by 1,575 tons to 469,500 tons [1]