Report Title - Zinc: Significant Cross - Market Contradictions, Zinc Prices Weakly Trending [1][6][11][19] Report Core View - On the early morning of September 18, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Although the long - term outlook for LME zinc has weakened, the current low inventory situation of LME zinc shows a strong Back structure, providing some support for the near - term. In the domestic market, as smelting enterprises are approaching winter stockpiling, zinc concentrate processing fees are showing a divergence. The import zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) continues to rise, while the average domestic zinc concentrate TC has slightly declined. As the zinc ore import window closes, the increase in overseas zinc ore TC is expected to slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. Additionally, the SHFE - LME ratio has reached a relatively low level. If the ratio further declines and the zinc ingot export window opens, the liquidation of long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage funds will also provide some support for SHFE zinc. Overall, the SHFE - LME ratio is expected to continue to trend weakly, but the decline rate may slow down, and domestic zinc prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [2][3][19] Summary by Related Catalogs 2022 Zinc Ingot Export Window Opening Review - In late 2021, rising domestic thermal coal prices increased domestic zinc smelting costs, and rising natural gas prices increased overseas zinc smelting costs in Europe and other regions, leading to a decline in smelting output and a joint increase in the prices of high - energy - consuming products such as aluminum and zinc. After the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on coal in October 2021 to study measures to intervene in coal prices, domestic energy prices quickly fell, significantly reducing the smelting costs of domestic aluminum and zinc smelters. Due to high overseas energy prices, the supply of LME zinc smelting remained tight, and LME zinc continued to rise while SHFE zinc's follow - up increase was relatively limited. From mid - October 2021, the SHFE - LME ratio began to decline, reaching a minimum of 0.97 in April 2022 after excluding exchange rates. From January to May 2022, the cumulative zinc ingot exports were 5.35 tons, a significant increase compared to 0.27 tons in the same period of 2021. From January to May 2022, the cumulative zinc ore imports were 1.519 million physical tons, a 7.5% decrease compared to 1.642 million physical tons in the same period of 2021 [6] Review of the Current Round of SHFE - LME Contradictions in Zinc Ingots - At the beginning of 2025, due to a lower Benchmark for overseas zinc smelters compared to previous years, there was a high expectation of overseas zinc smelting production cuts. In contrast, the domestic zinc industry was in an oversupply cycle, with TC continuously rising and zinc smelting profits recovering quickly, causing the SHFE - LME ratio to decline slowly. Since mid - April 2025, the LME zinc ingot market has been continuously de - stocking, the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure and the 3 - 15 month spread structure have oscillated upwards, LME zinc has shown strength, and the decline rate of the SHFE - LME ratio has accelerated. Since late June 2025, domestic zinc ingot social inventories have continued to accumulate, the SHFE zinc monthly spread has returned to the Contango structure, and SHFE zinc has struggled to rise. The structural contradictions in the overseas LME zinc market have intensified, the LME zinc monthly structure has changed to the Back structure. Coupled with the market's trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in August, the SHFE - LME ratio has declined at an accelerated pace [11] Future Price and Ratio Outlook - On the early morning of September 18, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Although the long - term outlook for LME zinc has weakened, the current low inventory situation of LME zinc shows a strong Back structure, providing some support for the near - term. In the domestic market, as smelting enterprises are approaching winter stockpiling, zinc concentrate processing fees are showing a divergence. The import zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) continues to rise, while the average domestic zinc concentrate TC has slightly declined. As the zinc ore import window closes, the increase in overseas zinc ore TC is expected to slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. Additionally, the SHFE - LME ratio has reached a relatively low level. If the ratio further declines and the zinc ingot export window opens, the liquidation of long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage funds will also provide some support for SHFE zinc. Overall, the SHFE - LME ratio is expected to continue to trend weakly, but the decline rate may slow down, and domestic zinc prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [2][3][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a slight upward trend, with current trading prices showing a minor increase compared to previous sessions [1][2]. - On September 2, LME aluminum futures opened at $2619.5 per ton and reached a current price of $2624 per ton, reflecting a 0.17% increase [1]. - The trading range for LME aluminum on September 1 included an opening price of $2614.0, a high of $2620.0, a low of $2605.0, and a closing price of $2619.5, indicating a 0.04% change [2]. Group 2 - As of September 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 58,529 tons, which is a decrease of 100 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.9, with an import loss of -1,323.15 yuan per ton, compared to -1,288.51 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]. - LME's registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,300 tons, indicating no change, while total aluminum inventory remained at 481,050 tons, also unchanged [2].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a weak trend, opening at $2614 per ton and currently at $2611 per ton, with a decline of 0.31% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2619 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2608.5 per ton [1] - On August 29, LME aluminum futures opened at $2607.5, peaked at $2622.0, and closed at $2618.5, reflecting a change of 0.40% [2] Group 2 - As of August 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 58,629 tons, an increase of 1,354 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.93, with an import loss of -1,288.51 yuan per ton, slightly improved from -1,318.71 yuan per ton the previous day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons, and total aluminum inventory at 481,050 tons, also down by 100 tons [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in LME copper futures prices, with a current price of $9835.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.60% increase from the opening price of $9795 per ton [1] - On August 13, LME copper futures opened at $9829.0, reached a high of $9865.0, and closed at $9781.0, showing a decrease of 0.61% [1] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.09 on August 13, indicating an import loss of 75.3 yuan per ton, slightly improved from the previous day's loss of 75.33 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - As of August 13, LME registered copper warrants totaled 144,325 tons, with canceled warrants at 11,550 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [1] - LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons, reaching a total of 155,875 tons on August 13 [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper futures warrants to 22,800 tons, down by 3,496 tons from the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices continue to decline, with a current price of $2607.5 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.29% from the opening price [1] Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Performance - On August 11, LME aluminum futures opened at $2606 per ton and reached a high of $2615 per ton and a low of $2605 per ton [1] - On August 8, the LME aluminum futures closed at $2614.0 per ton, with a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous day [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Updates - As of August 8, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at LME totaled 456,350 tons, with 14,225 tons canceled, remaining unchanged [1] - The total aluminum inventory at LME increased by 1,075 tons to reach 470,575 tons [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.9, with an import loss of -1,581.27 yuan per ton, improving from -1,662.79 yuan per ton the previous trading day [1] - On August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 1,568 tons to 43,599 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with a slight decline observed in the latest trading session [1] Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Performance - On August 8, LME aluminum futures opened at $2612.5 per ton and are currently at $2608 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.10% [1] - The trading session on August 7 saw LME aluminum futures open at $2619.0, reach a high of $2641.5, a low of $2501.0, and close at $2610.0, marking a decline of 0.51% [1] Group 2: Market Data and Inventory - As of August 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 42,031 tons, a decrease of 631 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.87, with an import loss of -1662.79 yuan per ton, compared to -1293.96 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 455,275 tons with 14,225 tons canceled, while total aluminum inventory increased by 1,575 tons to 469,500 tons [1]