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内盘油脂减仓下行,延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 01:36
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. After the oils oscillated higher, the upward momentum was insufficient. There was a significant reduction in positions in the external market, and the domestic market returned to fundamentals [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,048 yuan/ton, a decrease of 136 yuan or 1.66% compared to the previous period - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118 yuan or 1.49% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan or 1.50% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.27%, and the spot basis was P09 + 532 yuan, an increase of 26 yuan - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 1.09%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 354 yuan, an increase of 28 yuan - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.15%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 184 yuan, an increase of 32 yuan [1] Market News - Malaysian independent inspection agency Amspec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 were 514,713 tons, a 14.21% increase compared to the same period last month - Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 were 524,596 tons, a 6.63% increase compared to the same period last month - It is estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2024/25 season will reach 168.3418 million tons, an increase of 20.6205 million tons or 14% year - on - year, and an increase of 0.472 million tons or 0.3% month - on - month - The estimated soybean planting area in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 47.6127 million hectares, an increase of 1.4631 million hectares or 3.2% year - on - year, and an increase of 0.097 million hectares or 0.2% month - on - month - The estimated soybean yield per hectare in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 3.54 tons, an increase of 334.7 kg or 10.5% year - on - year, and an increase of 2.7 kg or 0.1% month - on - month [2]
棕榈油:国际油价反弹,短时提供支撑,豆油:品种间保持偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 01:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil price rebound provides short - term support for palm oil, and soybean oil remains relatively strong among varieties [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 7,908 yuan/ton (down 0.08% during the day, up 0.56% at night), soybean oil主力 at 7,760 yuan/ton (down 0.33% during the day, up 0.93% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,372 yuan/ton (up 0.40% during the day, up 0.11% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 3,801 ringgit/ton (up 1.99% during the day, up 0.89% at night), and CBOT soybean oil主力 at 48.40 cents/pound (up 2.26%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 trading volume was 685,958 lots (down 62,759), open interest was 428,821 lots (up 2,700); soybean oil主力 trading volume was 342,797 lots (down 13,586), open interest was 607,347 lots (up 4,521); rapeseed oil主力 trading volume was 444,856 lots (up 9,308), open interest was 313,272 lots (up 10,848) [1] - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,520 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,410 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 945 dollars/ton (down 25 dollars) [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 612 yuan/ton, soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 400 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 38 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 1,464 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 148 yuan/ton. Palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 248 yuan/ton, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 140 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - BIMP - EAGA Business Council plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil in Sabah through cooperation [2][3] - Kenya is interested in cooperating with Malaysia to build a palm oil processing center in Mombasa Industrial Park [3] - As of the week of May 6, about 15% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 11% last year [3] - Private exporters reported selling 22.5 tons of soybeans to Pakistan for 2025/26 delivery [4] - Anec predicted that Brazil's soybean exports from May 7 to May 10 would be 351.36 tons (down from 376.78 tons last week), and soybean meal exports would be 69.31 tons (up from 52.28 tons last week) [4] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised the forecast of Argentina's 2024/25 soybean harvest from 48.6 million tons to 50 million tons [4] - As of March 31, 2025, Canada's rapeseed inventory decreased by 38.7% year - on - year to 5.9 million tons. Exports increased by 73.6% to 6.8 million tons, and domestic consumption reached a record 8.1 million tons [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 0, and soybean oil trend intensity was 0 [6]