Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil rebounded, the near - month spread rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. The 9 - 10 month spread rebounded to $5.5 per ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$5), and the internal - external spread of FU01 strengthened slightly to $2.5. The 0.5 cracking spread of Singapore oscillated and continued to weaken, the 9 - 10 month spread rebounded slightly to $3.75 per ton, and the internal - external spread of LU11 oscillated around $8. [5][6] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased significantly, reaching the highest level in the same period of history. Floating storage increased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high in the same period, arrivals rebounded this week, and the UAE's shipments rebounded significantly month - on - month, with a significant increase in net exports. [6] - The divergence between the East and the West of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. The current price difference has triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - quality pattern, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst is the weakest, and the premium of heavy - quality crude oil is the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. [6] - This week, LU's weakening was realized, the spot price of the external MF0.5 decreased slightly, and the valuation was realized. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of LU quotas. Pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the 380 EW spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and exit the short - allocation of LU in the short term. [6] 3. Summary of Related Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | -$0.57 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | -$0.20 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.15 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | -$4.36 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$4.16 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -$0.64 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$0.37 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -$6.18 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -$2.44 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +$0.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -$0.01 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -$1.24 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$0.29 | [3][8] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -$11.83 | | FOB VLSFO | -$6.30 | | 380cst Basis | -$0.05 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | +$0.1 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | +$0.6 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -16 | | FU 05 | -10 | | FU 09 | -6 | | FU 01 - 05 | -6 | | FU 05 - 09 | -4 | | FU 09 - 01 | +10 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 0 | | LU 05 | +10 | | LU 09 | +18 | | LU 01 - 05 | -10 | | LU 05 - 09 | -8 | | LU 09 - 01 | +18 | [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil rebounded, the near - month spread rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded to $5.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$5), and the FU01 internal - external spread strengthened slightly to $2.5. The cracking spread of Singapore 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated around $8. [5][6] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased significantly, reaching the highest level in the same period of history. Floating storage increased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high for the same period, and arrivals rebounded this week. UAE's shipments rebounded significantly month - on - month, and net exports increased substantially. [6] - The divergence between the East and West of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. The current price difference has triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst is the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil is the strongest. It is expected to converge in both directions later. [6] - This week, LU's weakness was realized, the spot price of the external MF0.5 decreased slightly, and the valuation was realized. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of LU quotas. Pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread to widen, and short - term short positions in LU should exit. [6] Group 3: Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$1.52 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +$0.76 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.29 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | +$6.27 | | VLSFO - G M1 | -$5.51 | | LGO - Brent M1 | $0.00 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$2.28 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | 380cst M1 | -$3.06 | | 180cst M1 | -$1.55 | | VLSFO M1 | -$1.64 | | GO M1 | +$1.06 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.17 | | VLSFO - GO M1 | -$9.49 | [3] Spot Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | FOB 380cst | - | | FOB VLSFO | - | | 380 Basis | - | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | -$0.1 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | -$1.7 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | FU 01 | -41 | | FU 05 | -42 | | FU 09 | -60 | | FU 01 - 05 | +1 | | FU 05 - 09 | +18 | | FU 09 - 01 | -19 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | LU 01 | -45 | | LU 05 | -34 | | LU 09 | -78 | | LU 01 - 05 | -11 | | LU 05 - 09 | +44 | | LU 09 - 01 | -33 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crack spread of high-sulfur fuel oil continues to decline. Although there are still structural supporting factors, the crack spread needs further adjustment to attract the recovery of refinery demand. After sufficient adjustment and significant return of refinery demand, the market will regain support [1]. - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no obvious driving force. In the medium term, the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing its market prospects. The current market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high-sulfur fuel oil, and the high-low sulfur spread has recently widened, but it does not have the space for a substantial increase [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 2.71% at 2,840 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.09% at 3,639 yuan/ton [1]. - Recently, the crude oil price has been oscillating strongly. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium-term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The slight retreat of oil prices yesterday also reflects that resistance has begun to appear after continuous rebounds [1]. - In the high-sulfur fuel oil market, the market structure maintains a weak operation. The spot premium, time spread, and crack spread have continued to decline. In particular, the crack spread has significantly retreated from the high level. The spot supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory level is high. Although the actual production increase of countries such as Saudi Arabia is likely to be less than the quota, the policy trend has been formed. During the peak summer electricity consumption season, Saudi power plants will increase the proportion of crude oil use, which can meet their own needs and reduce the supply pressure on the international crude oil market. The corresponding fuel oil demand may decline year-on-year. The recent significant increase in the shipment volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East also confirms this trend [1]. - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no obvious driving force. After the maintenance season of domestic refineries ended in June, the domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil has rebounded, but it is still lower than the same period last year, and the short-term supply increase is limited. In the medium term, the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing its market prospects [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - Low-sulfur: None [3] - Inter-variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - Inter-period: Short the FU2509-FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8 - 9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal - external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery inventory was abundant, maintaining a loose pattern. [4] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and it fluctuated around $4.5 for the 8 - 9 month spread. The LU internal - external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 around $16. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly, the near - month contract was under pressure due to delivery, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high - sulfur supply - demand is still in the peak season, but the East - West and internal - external spreads have dropped rapidly. The external low - sulfur valuation is high, and the LU internal - external spread is running at a high level. Pay attention to domestic production. [5] - The Singapore Hi - 5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal - external spread rebounded slightly, the LU valuation is high, and the short - term valuation regression opportunity of FU - LU can be considered. The risk lies in the continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Tables Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, 0.5% VLSFO swap M1, etc. showed different changes from July 8 to July 14, 2025. For example, the Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $10.28. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, 180cst M1, VLSFO M1, etc. also changed during the same period. For instance, the Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $10.33 from July 8 - 14. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices - From July 8 to July 14, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $1.83, while the FOB VLSFO price increased by $9.94. The 380 basis weakened, the high - sulfur internal - external spread increased by $1.7, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased by $0.1. [3] Domestic FU Futures Prices - The prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 contracts changed from July 8 to July 14, 2025. For example, FU 01 increased by 28 points, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. [3] Domestic LU Futures Prices - The prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 contracts changed during the same period. LU 01 increased by 63 points, and the spreads between different contracts also had corresponding changes. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - This week, global fuel oil prices dropped significantly as geopolitical conflicts eased, returning to pre - conflict levels. The crack spread and time spread of fuel oil slightly declined from their highs, with low - sulfur fuel oil showing some strength relative to high - sulfur fuel oil [4]. - The core driver of the sharp price decline is the full reversal of the risk premium included in the price once oil transportation in the Middle East returns to normal after the geopolitical conflict eases. Fundamentally, Middle Eastern exports will remain stable in the short term, and with the lifting of geopolitical risks and the resumption of production at the Rabigh refinery next week, high - sulfur exports from the Middle East are expected to continue to rise, which will have a negative impact on high - sulfur prices. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although its demand in the bunker fuel market is continuously squeezed by high - sulfur fuel oil, exports from Brazil and north - western Europe to Asia are decreasing, and recent refinery maintenance in Japan will limit the amount of spot received in the Asia - Pacific market, supporting the time spread and crack spread of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil. In the domestic market, the low - sulfur production of domestic refineries is about to resume, but it is not expected to increase significantly in the next two months, having a relatively limited impact on the market [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices dropped significantly as geopolitical conflicts eased, and the crack spread and time spread of fuel oil slightly declined from their highs, with low - sulfur fuel oil showing strength relative to high - sulfur fuel oil [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: The sharp decline in fuel oil prices is due to the reversal of the risk premium. Middle Eastern high - sulfur exports are expected to rise, negatively affecting high - sulfur prices. Low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific market will see limited spot receipts, supporting its time spread and crack spread. Domestic low - sulfur production is expected to have a limited impact on the market in the short term [4]. 2. Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil commodity volume in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [19]. 3. Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly sales of fuel oil for bunkering in Singapore, the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [22]. 4. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the inventories of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [25][27][28]. 5. Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, and 1% fuel oil in north - western Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [32][35][36][38][39]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in north - western Europe, 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and high - sulfur fuel oil cargo in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [42][43]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the swap prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in north - western Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [45][46][48][49]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [51][53]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [55][56][58]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Time Spread**: Data on the time spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [62][63][65]. 6. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [69][71][72]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [74]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices had a narrower fluctuation range this week. After falling at the beginning of the week, they rebounded slightly, and the crack spreads and monthly spreads declined slightly from their highs [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: Fuel oil prices rebounded after falling at the beginning of the week, with the overall price changes narrowing compared to the previous week. However, the strengthening of crude oil prices caused the fuel oil crack spreads to decline from their highs. Currently, supply - side changes are dominating price movements. High - sulfur fuel oil's monthly spreads and crack spreads are likely to avoid significant declines, while for low - sulfur fuel oil, the price, crack spreads, and monthly spreads of the domestic LU may be suppressed [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, covering multiple years from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units are provided, spanning from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on China's monthly fuel oil production, low - sulfur fuel oil production, and fuel oil commodity volume are shown, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [18]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on Singapore's monthly fuel oil bunker sales, China's monthly fuel oil apparent consumption, and China's monthly marine fuel oil actual consumption are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [21]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the inventories of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, residual fuel oil in the US, etc. are provided, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [24][26][27]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujeirah, Singapore, and other locations are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [31][32][33]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and other locations are provided, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [36][37][39]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, etc. are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [42]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the swap prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Northwest Europe and Singapore are provided, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts [44][50]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: Data on the price spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the viscosity spreads are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [53][55]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are provided, covering multiple years from 2019 - 2025 [59][61][62]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: Data on the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are presented, covering the period from 2023 - 2025 [66][67]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on China's monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [72][74][75]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in regions such as China, the Middle East, and the US are provided [77]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in regions such as Singapore + Malaysia, China, and the US are presented [79].