金十整理特朗普-马斯克决裂：特斯拉市值蒸发1500亿美元 万斯喜从天降？ 金十数据6月6日讯，当地时间6月5日，马斯克与特朗普的不和彻底公开化，双方用上"失望"、"忘恩负 义"、"弹劾"、"疯了"等词汇互相抨击。 2. 导火索：特朗普在谈及与马斯克的关系时表示对马斯克非常失望，希望马斯克批评自己而非税改法 案，还称在大选中无需其助力也能拿下宾州，并预言马斯克将开始说他坏话。 3. 马斯克打开怼人话匣 承接特朗普预言： ①再批法案，称法案一次都没给他看过（彼时马斯克还是DOGE领导人），他还抱怨法案中砍电车和光 伏措施，油气补贴却不动如山。 1. 决裂背景：已在众议院通过的特朗普税改法案引发马斯克不满，后者称该法案将导致美国破产、增加 赤字。此外特朗普撤销电动汽车"强制令"以及撤回马斯克青睐的NASA局长人选亦可能是马斯克反水的 原因。 ②直指特朗普忘恩负义，没有马斯克帮助将会输掉大选，参众两院的席位也会对共和党不利。 ③挖陈年旧事，转发特朗普十多年前关于减少赤字立场的推文，嘲讽其忘记初心，物是人非。 ④投票搞新政党，在X平台上发起"是否应该在美国创建一个代表中间80%群体的新政党"的投票并置 顶。 4. 特朗 ...

共和党温和派与财政鹰派料将继续就削减赤字的幅度问题进行角力。这份直接影响美国所有纳税人和美企 财务状况、美国联邦政府债务规模和2026年中期选举风向的法案，能否如特朗普所愿于7月4日美国国庆 日之前在国会通过，仍然存在诸多不确定性。 中金公司预测，参议院可能在6月对"美丽大法案"进行投票，最终修改版有望按照特朗普的预期，在7月4 日美国国庆日前完成立法。这部集减税、减支、抬高美债上限、国防和移民政策于一体的法案可能大幅增 加未来10年美国财政赤字规模。中长期来看，面对国内贫富分化、再工业化等结构性问题和全球地缘竞 争，美国大概率不具备有效削减赤字的客观条件。从短期来看，债务上限提高后，美债发行潮可能在7-9 月到来，或迫使美国加快货币与金融政策调整，如开启QE、加速SLR豁免及其他金融改革，为美债市场 提供流动性。 华泰证券指出，"美丽大法案"将导致美国财政赤字率维持高位，政府债务占比将进一步攀升，因此维持美 债收益率中期面临上行压力的判断。未来美国政府债务占比或从当前100%左右上升至2034年的125%。 美国政府债务压力上升，加之关税扰动削弱美债吸引力，对持有美债占比达30%的海外投资者需求偏弱， 全球 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the recent sharp decline in U.S. Treasury prices, raising global concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and triggering a sell-off in the global bond market [3][5] - The proposed tax reform by Trump is expected to increase U.S. debt by $3 trillion to $5 trillion, exacerbating fears and contributing to the volatility in the bond market [3][5] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has intensified investor anxiety, leading to a rapid sell-off of U.S. bonds [3][5] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5% for two consecutive days, marking a new high since November 2023, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment [5][6] - Investors are not only selling U.S. Treasuries but are also withdrawing from major bond markets, with Japanese and German bond yields rising sharply [8] - Concerns over global inflation are impacting long-term bonds, as investors reassess their strategies in light of changing economic expectations [9][11] Group 3 - The current turmoil in the bond market suggests a major shift in the global financial landscape, with the previous confidence in U.S. Treasuries diminishing [11] - This situation presents both potential investment opportunities and increased risks for ordinary investors, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies [11]

美国众议院已有足够票数通过特朗普税改法案，投票仍在继续。 ...

Group 1: US Dollar - The US House of Representatives is set to vote on Trump's tax reform bill [2] - US Commerce Secretary Ross expressed the desire to reach trade agreements with "most" major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer [2] - National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that if a 3% growth is achieved, Trump's tax plan could balance the budget, predicting economic growth to exceed 3% [2] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 41 economists believe Trump's policies have negatively impacted the US economy, with 23 stating the impact is significant; the US economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with April's survey [2] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - Japanese central bank board member Noguchi stated that there is no need for significant adjustments to the existing balance sheet reduction plan, with intervention only necessary in case of "serious disruptions" in the bond market [3] - The US Treasury confirmed that the current USD/JPY exchange rate reflects fundamental conditions, with no discussions on exchange rate levels [3] - A Reuters survey revealed that two-thirds of Japanese companies want the Bank of Japan to pause interest rate hikes due to Trump's tariff measures [3] - The German Economic Expert Council downgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast for Germany from 0.4% to 0.0% [3] - European Central Bank Vice President de Guindos noted that Eurozone bond yields have decoupled from the US, with the interest rate differential remaining manageable; to prevent inflation from falling below 2%, rates may need to drop below the neutral rate of 1.5%-2% [3] Group 3: Other Developments - The Thai Commerce Minister expressed a desire for a weaker Thai Baht [4] - Bank of America recommended a bullish stance on the Euro against the Mexican Peso, stating that the Peso is overvalued [4] - The Bank of Indonesia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 5.5%, in line with market expectations [4]

美国众议院开启关于特朗普税改法案的辩论，随后将对该法案的通过进行投票。 ...

智通财经5月22日电， 经过马拉松式的谈判，美国众议院共和党将于周四黎明前对特朗普税改法案进行 投票。 ...

美国共和党众议员Andy Harris表示，他认为众议院今天无法推进特朗普税改法案。 ...

据一位熟悉谈判的议员透露，为争取极端保守派支持，美国众议院共和党领导层计划将针对低收入人群 医疗补助（Medicaid）申请者的工作要求提前到2026年12月生效。工作要求问题一直是特朗普税改法案 磋商过程中的一个核心分歧点，议长约翰逊努力在党内分裂严重、席位优势微弱的情况下寻找平衡。然 而，将生效时间提前至2026年12月或将影响中期选举选情，民主党人势必会借机抨击共和党削减低收入 群体医疗保障。（彭博） ...