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瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251120
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 09:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For the corn market, the USDA report is slightly bearish, but the recent strength of US soybeans and wheat has boosted the price of US corn. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast region has increased, but the upward momentum is insufficient. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the price increase has slowed down. The corn futures price has slightly declined recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For the starch market, the supply pressure has increased with the increase in new - season corn supply and industry operating rate. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, and the downstream demand is acceptable. The starch inventory has decreased. The starch price has declined in tandem with the corn market recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2168 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2473 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings of corn starch is - 116,653 hands, and that of corn is - 43,793 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 69,337 hands, and those of corn starch are 12,453 hands. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 343 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of CBOT corn (active contract) is 429.75 cents per bushel, down 5.75 cents per bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1,550,059 contracts, an increase of 6,994 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 81,307 contracts, a decrease of 30,121 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,278.82 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,560 yuan/ton, 2,800 yuan/ton, and 2,730 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The import CIF price of corn is 2,034.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17 yuan/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is 110.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively. The predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and no data respectively. The corn inventories in southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 86.6 million tons, 124 million tons, and 273.5 million tons respectively, with the deep - processing inventory decreasing by 6 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, a decrease of 2,020 tons. The monthly output of feed is 2,015 million tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days are 25.61 days [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.65 million tons. The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 27 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 28 yuan/ton respectively. The operating rates of alcohol enterprises and starch enterprises are 67.29% and 60.89% respectively, with the starch enterprise operating rate decreasing by 2.59 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 8.2% and 7.69% respectively, with the 60 - day historical volatility decreasing by 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of corn are both 7.99%, with an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazil's corn export volume in November 2025 is expected to reach 6.36 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and last year's level. The estimated sown area of US corn in 2026 is 95 million acres, a decrease of 3.7 million acres or 3.8% compared to 2025. The US corn harvest is almost over, and the short - term supply pressure is high [2].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251118
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 09:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed higher on Monday, supported by the spill - over from the rising soybean market. US corn harvest is almost finished, with high phased supply pressure. The USDA report is slightly bearish. In the domestic market, cold and snowy weather in the Northeast and North China has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, reducing the available grain supply and causing a slight increase in enterprise purchase prices. Corn futures prices have strengthened recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - With the increase in the new - season corn supply, the industry operating rate has continued to rise, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. Corn starch inventory has decreased slightly week - on - week. Recently, starch has oscillated and closed higher in line with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2168 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2467 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 12 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 22 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 943129 lots, and corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 218727 lots, down 8385 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 109948 lots, and for corn starch are - 47013 lots, up 1963 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 0 lots, and that of corn starch is 69337 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 339 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 434.75 cents/bushel. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2278.82 yuan/ton. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. - The import CIF price of corn is 2031.92 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 US dollars/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 42 yuan, and the basis of the corn main contract is 110.82 yuan. The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 500 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2494.94 yuan/ton. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 440 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan. The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 217 yuan, down 8 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, and 295 million hectares respectively. The predicted corn yields in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 32 million tons respectively [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports is 86.6 million tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 273.5 million tons, down 6 million tons. The corn inventory in northern ports is 124 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12.78 thousand tons, down 2.02 thousand tons. The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons [2]. - The sample feed corn inventory days are 25.61 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.65 million tons. The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 67.29%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 63.48%, up 0.71% [2]. Downstream Situation - The corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 25 yuan/ton, 104 yuan/ton, and 22 yuan/ton respectively, down 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.04%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 7.69%, and that of at - the - money put options is 7.03%, up 1.11% [2]. Key Data on Corn Starch Inventory - As of November 12, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 113.3 million tons, down 0.50 million tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.44%, a monthly increase of 0.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.59% [3].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251117
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 09:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the corn market, the USDA's November supply - demand report shows a slightly bearish outlook for US corn, but in the domestic market, cold weather in Northeast and North China has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, reduced available grain sources, and stronger corporate purchase prices. Corn futures prices have strengthened recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - In the starch market, with the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has recovered, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. Starch futures have oscillated and risen in tandem with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2182 yuan/ton, and the corn starch futures closing price (active contract) of another data is 2489 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 61 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is 2 yuan, down 3 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 934047 lots, down 13255 lots, and corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 227112 lots, down 10823 lots [2]. Outer - disc Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 430.25 cents/bushel, and CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts. CBOT corn non - commercial net long position is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2275.29 yuan/ton, the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 427.11 million hectares, the predicted yield is 131 million tons; in Brazil, the predicted sown area is 36.44 million hectares, the predicted yield is 22.6 million tons; in Argentina, the predicted sown area is 53 million hectares, the predicted yield is 7.5 million tons; in China, the predicted sown area is 295 million hectares, the predicted yield is 44.3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 320,000 tons, in northern ports is 1240,000 tons, down 0.5 tons from the previous week. The monthly import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons, the corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hebei is 104 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jilin is 22 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 67.29%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 63.48%, up 0.71% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.57%, down 0.76%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.7%, down 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 5.92%, down 1.64%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 5.92%, down 1.64% [2]. Industry News - The USDA's November supply - demand report shows that the expected US corn yield in the 2025/26 season is adjusted down to 1.6752 billion bushels, the export target is increased by 100 million bushels to 3.075 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is increased [2]. Key Points of Attention - Monitor the weekly corn consumption data from Mysteel and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]
《农产品》日报-20251114
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 02:40
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a narrow - range oscillation due to high production and weak export data, while the Dalian palm oil futures are expected to try to break through 8900. - Soybean oil: The global crude oil supply - demand forecast in 2026 by OPEC has affected the soybean oil market. The domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the spot basis is likely to remain stable [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weak, but there is an expectation of strengthening in the market tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may boost the pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The USDA monthly report is expected to show little change in the ending stocks. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [7]. 2.4 Corn Industry - Corn prices in the Northeast are rising locally, and those in the North China are stable with a slight upward trend. The price increase and decrease are limited due to supply pressures and cost and policy support. The short - term corn price may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is restricted [8]. 2.5 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures are falling, and the domestic cotton price is likely to be in a range - bound pattern due to hedging pressure and cost support, with weak downstream demand but rigid raw - material demand from textile enterprises [11]. 2.6 Sugar Industry - Brazilian rainfall may affect sugarcane crushing, and India's sugar export has uncertainties. The domestic sugar market is expected to be in a price - oscillation state, with the new - season sugarcane crushing in Guangxi likely to be postponed [13][14]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply of eggs remains under pressure as the laying - hen inventory is high in November. The consumption is weak, but the egg price is at a bottom - range, and 2512 short positions can be gradually closed at a low price below 3000 [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8560, the futures price of Y2601 rose 0.34% to 8316, and the basis decreased 10.29% [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong dropped 0.58% to 8570, the futures price of P2601 rose 0.09% to 8752, and the basis decreased 46.77% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu rose 1.48% to 10260, the futures price of OI601 rose 1.37% to 9975, and the basis rose 5.56% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased 0.89%, that of palm oil decreased 13.33%, and that of rapeseed oil increased 9.11% [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of pig 2605 rose 0.82% to 12235, and that of pig 2601 rose 0.55% to 11860. - Spot: The spot prices in most regions decreased, such as in Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - The sample - point slaughter volume decreased 0.74%, the white - strip price decreased 0.53%, and the piglet price decreased 15% [3]. 3.3 Meal Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3050, the futures price of M2601 rose 0.39% to 3071, and the basis decreased 133.33% [7]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2500, the futures price of RM2601 decreased 0.08% to 2492, and the basis increased 33.33% [7]. 3.3.2 Spread Changes - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal increased 4.78%, and that of rapeseed meal increased 1.61% [7]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Corn: The futures price of corn 2601 rose 0.41% to 2186, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price rose 0.46% to 2200, and the basis rose 7.69% [8]. - Corn starch: The futures price of corn starch 2601 rose 0.68% to 2507, and the basis decreased 85% [8]. 3.4.2 Industry Indicators - The import profit of corn increased 4.66%, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased 14.54% [8]. 3.5 Cotton Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased 0.22% to 13495, and that of cotton 2601 decreased 0.18% to 13490. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased 0.38% to 14614, and the CC Index of 3128B decreased 0.22% to 14819 [11]. 3.5.2 Industry Indicators - The commercial inventory increased 70.4% to 293.06 tons, and the industrial inventory increased 9.7% to 88.82 tons [11]. 3.6 Sugar Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 rose 0.62% to 5512, and that of sugar 2605 rose 0.41% to 5433. - Spot: The Nanning spot price remained unchanged at 5660, and the Kunming spot price remained unchanged at 5540 [13]. 3.6.2 Industry Indicators - The national sugar production increased 12.03% to 1116.21 tons, and the national sugar sales increased 9.17% to 1048.00 tons [13]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased 0.75% to 3040, and the price of the egg 01 - contract decreased 1.72% to 3322. - The egg - producing area price decreased 0.25% to 2.99 yuan per catty [16]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - The egg - chicken feed ratio decreased 1.68% to 2.34, and the breeding profit decreased 8.51% to - 26.52 yuan per chicken [16].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251112
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 10:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the US corn harvest is nearly finished with high supply pressure, but the upcoming USDA report may show a lower yield estimate and the rise of soybeans and wheat provides support. In the domestic market, there is still selling pressure, but the slowdown of grain circulation and increased purchases by multiple entities may support prices. The corn market has shown a slightly stronger trend recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2][3] - For starch, the supply pressure increases with more new - season corn and rising industry operating rates. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. The starch market has been oscillating and rising in tandem with the corn market recently, and short - term observation is recommended [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2177 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 74 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 963208 lots, the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 127577 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts are 66338 lots [2] - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2490 yuan/ton, the 1 - 3 monthly spread is - 3 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 235124 lots, the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 56909 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts are 12453 lots [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 432 cents/bushel, the total position is 1543065 lots, and the non - commercial net long position is - 51186 lots [2] 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2255.1 yuan/ton, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2190 yuan/ton, the CIF price of imported corn is 2035.94 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 42 US dollars/ton [2] - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Corn production: The predicted annual production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 427.11 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 32 million tons respectively [2] - Corn planting area: The predicted annual planting area in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China is 36.44 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 74.2 tons, at northern ports is 122 tons, and the deep - processing inventory is 279.5 tons [2] - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12.78 tons [2] - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly production is 3128.7 tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days are 24.88 days [2] - Deep - processing: The weekly consumption of corn is 138.18 tons, the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 66.79%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 63.48% [2] - Processing profit: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 36 yuan/ton, 104 yuan/ton, and 58 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.7 Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 9.59%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.83%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 6.56% [2] 3.8 Industry News - As of November 9, the US corn harvest was 92% complete, up from 83% a week ago [2] - As of November 8, the planting of Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn was 47.7% complete, compared with 42.8% last week, 48.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 45.5% [2]
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251106
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the US, as the corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the recent rise in soybeans and wheat provides spill - over support. In China, the main producing areas are in the stage of releasing sales pressure, with sufficient market supply. Feed and deep - processing rigid demand exists, and the expansion of CGS storage acquisition boosts traders' enthusiasm. The futures market showed a slightly stronger trend at the end of the day, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - **Corn Starch**: With the increase in new - season corn supply and the recovery of processing profits, the industry's operating rate has continuously rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. However, downstream signing and提货 have slowed down slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. The futures market fluctuated and closed higher along with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the 20 - corn starch futures active contract was 2469 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the corn monthly spread (1 - 5) was 18 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) was - 90 yuan/ton; the CS - C spread of the main contract was 345 yuan/ton [2]. - **Positions**: The futures positions of the active contracts of yellow corn and corn starch were 970616 hands and 222626 hands respectively, with an increase of 34867 hands and 7374 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of corn and corn starch were - 91289 hands and - 59953 hands respectively, with an increase of 11371 hands and 723 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn and corn starch were 0 hands and 12453 hands respectively [2]. Outer - Disk Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn was 4.25 cents per bushel, and the total position of CBOT corn was 1543065 contracts, an increase of 13269 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn was - 15017 contracts, a decrease of 51186 contracts [2]. Spot Market - **Corn Prices**: The average spot price of corn was 2236.47 yuan/ton, down 1.18 yuan; the flat - hatch price of corn at Jinzhou Port was 2150 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn was 2054.11 yuan/ton, up 69.58 yuan; the international freight of imported corn was 0 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch Prices**: The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang were 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the main corn starch contract was 41 yuan, down 18 yuan; the basis of the main corn contract was - 18.82 yuan, down 2.33 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The average spot price of wheat was 2487.67 yuan/ton, down 3.51 yuan; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 291 yuan, down 7 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder was - 236 yuan, down 2 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Sowing and Yield Forecast**: The predicted sowing areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine were 36.44 million hectares, etc., and the predicted yields were 131 million tons, etc. [2]. - **Inventory**: The corn inventory in southern ports was 12.7 million tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory was 282.7 million tons, an increase of 49.3 million tons. The corn inventory in northern ports was 108 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises was 112.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons; the monthly import volume of corn was 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch was 12780 tons, a decrease of 2020 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Output and Consumption**: The monthly output of feed was 201.5 million tons; the weekly consumption of deep - processing corn was 8.99 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate was 68.42%, and the starch enterprise operating rate was 58.86%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points [2]. - **Profit**: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin were 59 yuan/ton, 124 yuan/ton, and 114 yuan/ton respectively, with a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton, and no change [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn were 9.31% and 7.38% respectively, with a decrease of 0.04 percentage points and 0.17 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of corn were 8.12%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of November 3, the planting progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's Paraná state in the 2025/26 season was 99%, up from 98% last week and the same as last year [2]. - China will cancel the maximum 15% retaliatory tariffs on some US agricultural products starting from November 10, while retaining the 10% additional tax [2]. - Analysts expect that as of November 2, the US corn harvest was 83% complete, up from 72% a week ago [2].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251105
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 09:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, as the U.S. corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, though the recent significant rise in U.S. soybeans provides spill - over support for U.S. corn prices. In the domestic market, the Northeast has sufficient supply, and the upward space for spot prices is limited. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, prices fluctuate slightly. Corn futures prices are in low - level consolidation, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For starch, with the increasing supply of new - season corn and the recovery of processing profits and industry operating rates, supply - side pressure is rising. However, downstream signing and picking up have slowed down, and inventory has increased slightly. Starch futures are oscillating in tandem with the corn market, and short - term watching is advised [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2134 yuan/ton, corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 4 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 101 yuan/ton. Futures positions, net buying volume of the top 20 positions, and registered warehouse receipts for both corn and corn starch are also provided [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is - 4 cents/bushel, CBOT corn total positions are 1543065 (weekly), and non - commercial net long positions are - 51186 (weekly) [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2234.31 yuan/ton, and the factory - quoted prices of corn starch in different regions such as Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are provided. There are also data on import prices, freight, and various price spreads [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sowing areas and yields of corn in the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are presented. Corn inventories in southern and northern ports and deep - processing inventories are also included [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventories in ports, starch enterprise inventories, import and export volumes of corn and corn starch, and feed production are shown [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Deep - processing corn consumption, corn starch processing profits in different regions, alcohol and starch enterprise operating rates are provided [2]. 3.7 Option Market - Historical volatility and implied volatility of corn options are given [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Analysts expect that as of November 2, the U.S. corn harvest was 83% complete, higher than the previous week's estimate. S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts that the U.S. 2025 corn output will be 16.803 billion bushels, higher than last month's forecast [2]. 3.9 Key Focus - Thursday and Friday's mysteel corn weekly consumption, as well as starch enterprise operating rates and inventory situations should be monitored [3].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251104
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 09:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International corn market maintains low - level volatile as US corn supply pressure increases with harvest progress, but market expects US corn yield to be lower than USDA's previous forecast; domestic corn prices show a slight rebound in Northeast due to improved storage, farmers' reluctance to sell, and traders' positive actions, while in North China and Huanghuai, market is more stable with slow sales and low - level arrival at deep - processing enterprises. Corn futures prices maintain low - level consolidation, and short - term observation is recommended [2] - Corn starch faces cost support decline due to increased new - season corn supply, and still has market demand squeezed by cassava starch; however, industry operation rate is lower than usual, and with good order fulfillment, enterprise inventory has slightly decreased. Starch futures move in tandem with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2135 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2444 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 2 yuan, and corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 9 yuan [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 927070 lots, down 479 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 213454 lots, down 2229 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 87776 lots, down 1588 lots; for corn starch, net long positions are - 63035 lots [2] - Registered warrants for yellow corn are 66351 lots, and for corn starch are 12453 lots, unchanged [2] - The spread between the main CS and C contracts is 340 yuan/ton [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 434.75 cents/bushel, up 3.75 cents; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions are - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn is 2234.31 yuan/ton, up 0.58 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - CIF price of imported corn is 1981.94 yuan/ton, up 0.67 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis of the main corn starch contract is 57 yuan, down 13 yuan; basis of the main corn contract is 99.31 yuan, up 6.58 yuan [2] - Spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 614 yuan, up 52 yuan; spread between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly) is 291 yuan, down 7 yuan [2] - Spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 234 yuan, up 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US is 427.11 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil is 131 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 22.6 million tons, unchanged [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina is 53 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 7.5 million tons, unchanged [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 44.3 million tons, unchanged [2] - Forecasted yield of corn in Ukraine is 32 million tons [2] - Corn inventory at southern ports is 60.7 million tons, up 49.3 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory is 282.7 million tons [2] - Corn inventory at northern ports is 108 million tons, and starch enterprise weekly inventory is 112.8 million tons, down 1.2 million tons [2] Industrial Situation - Monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and monthly export volume of corn starch is 12780 tons, down 2020 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons; corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 64 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - Sample feed corn inventory days are 24.1 days, up 0.06 days; corn starch processing profit in Hebei is 132 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption is 135.32 million tons; corn starch processing profit in Jilin is 114 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] - Alcohol enterprise operation rate is 68.42%, and starch enterprise operation rate is 58.86%, up 3.24 percentage points [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.32%, up 0.13 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.53%, up 0.08 percentage points [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.1%, down 0.31 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.1%, down 0.31 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of October 30, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 60%, compared with 55% a week ago and 59% in the same period last year [2] - For the week ending October 30, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume is 1668781 tons, compared with 1242451 tons last week and 800209 tons in the same period last year [2]
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251029
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 09:32
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Views - For corn, with the U.S. corn harvest advancing, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the expected lower U.S. corn yield and the Sino - U.S. trade agreement expectation support the market. In China, the new corn supply is increasing, leading to a slight decline in purchase prices. Corn futures prices are in a low - level consolidation [2]. - For corn starch, the increasing supply of raw corn weakens cost support, and the substitution of tapioca starch squeezes market demand. However, the lower - than - usual industry operation rate, good order fulfillment, and slightly decreased inventory are positive factors. Starch futures prices move in sync with the corn market and are recommended for short - term observation [2][3]. Section Summaries Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2116 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2427 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 925389 hands, and corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 208744 hands, down 1335 hands [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 3.75 cents/bushel, and the total open interest is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts. Non - commercial net long positions are - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2242.75 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream - Forecasted corn planting areas in the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11, 36.44, 22.6, 44.3, and 32 million hectares respectively, with forecasted yields of 53, 7.5, 295, 44.3, and 32 million tons respectively, all unchanged [2]. Industry - Corn inventories in southern and northern ports are 9.3 and 11 million tons respectively, and the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 112.8 million tons, down 1.2 million tons [2]. Downstream - The monthly output of feed is 201.5 million tons, and the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is 128 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton [2]. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.48%, down 0.43%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.24%, up 0.74% [2]. Industry News - As of October 26, the U.S. corn harvest was 72% complete, up from 59% a week ago. As of October 25, Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn planting was 40.0% complete, up from 33.2% last week [2].
南华期货玉米&淀粉产业日报-20251029
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 02:13
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the South China Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily, dated October 29, 2025, written by Dai Hongxu and research assistant Kang Quangui [1] Group 2: Core Views - The national autumn grain harvest in major producing areas is over 85%. The corn market harvest is nearing completion, but selling pressure remains high, pressuring prices. Futures prices are in a post - bottoming - out and retracement phase, while spot prices are in a post - stop - falling and stabilizing and fluctuating process [2] - On Tuesday, the corn futures market showed a narrow - range and slightly upward trend, supported by the rise in the outer market and the strength of soybeans. The main 01 contract rose 0.28% to close at 2123 yuan, with decreased trading volume and a slight increase in open interest. The corn starch futures market was weak, with the main 01 contract closing at 2424 yuan [2] Group 3: Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - State reserve purchase points in the Northeast region are supporting prices, limiting downward movement [6] - The shortage of high - quality corn in North China will become more apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [6] - After the peak of harvest and selling pressure, it will become more dispersed, and price pressure is expected to gradually ease [6] Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect long - term corn feed demand. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level [3] - Short - term supply pressure remains high, and prices are consolidating at a low level [3] Group 4: Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for corn is in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.75% and a volatility percentile of 23.6%. The monthly price forecast for starch is in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.40% and a volatility percentile of 4.92% [3] Group 5: Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - For corn, the price at Jinzhou Port is 2140 yuan (down 10 yuan), at Shekou Port is 2270 yuan (down 20 yuan), and in Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). The Jinzhou Port main - continuous basis is 17 yuan (down 21 yuan) [3] - For corn starch, the price in Shandong is 2750 yuan (down 10 yuan), in Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and in Heilongjiang is 2460 yuan (unchanged). The Shandong main - continuous basis is 326 yuan (down 9 yuan) [3] Futures Price - From October 27 to 28, 2025, corn futures contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07 showed price increases, with increases ranging from 0.49% - 0.59%. Corn starch futures contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09 showed price decreases, with decreases ranging from 0.04% - 0.25%. The wheat average price increased by 0.04% [4][7] Group 6: International Market Data - For US corn - related prices, the CBOT corn main - continuous contract price is 431.75, up 3.75 (0.88%); the COBT soybean main - continuous contract price is 1093.5, up 10 (0.92%); the CBOT wheat main - continuous contract price is 530.25, up 4.25 (0.81%). The US Gulf完税 price is 2141.89, up 13.84 (0.65%), with an import profit of 148.11; the US West完税 price is 2019.92, up 14.03 (0.7%), with an import profit of 270.08 [34]