Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average realized price for the second quarter was $374 per tonne, with produced sales of approximately 1,500,000 tonnes, generating adjusted EBITDA of $183 million and adjusted net income of $0.97 per share [7][16] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased compared to 2025 primarily due to a lower average realized price [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Methanex production in the second quarter was similar to the first quarter, with higher production from Geismar and Trinidad, offset by lower production from Chile, New Zealand, and Egypt due to gas constraints and planned maintenance [12][14] - The integration of the newly acquired OCI methanol business is proceeding as planned, with both the Beaumont facility and the Natgasoline facility operating safely and at full rates since acquisition [8][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global methanol demand was estimated to be about 4% higher in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, driven primarily by higher demand in China [9] - The global average realized price for methanol was $374 per tonne, with regional prices in Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, and China varying significantly [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to safely and reliably operate its business while smoothly integrating new assets, with a focus on deleveraging through the repayment of the Term Loan A facility [16] - The company does not anticipate significant growth capital over the next few years and remains focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the integration of the OCI acquisition and the potential for synergies, estimating $30 million in synergies to be achieved within 18 months [60] - The company is monitoring the gas market closely and expects some curtailments in 2025, particularly in the summer months, depending on gas supply and demand dynamics [14][15] Other Important Information - The company ended the second quarter with $485 million in cash and access to an undrawn revolving credit facility of CAD 600 million [16] - The company is focused on optimizing operations in New Zealand, where gas supply availability continues to be a challenge [14][90] Q&A Session Summary Question: Operating rates at G3 and Beaumont - G3 has been operating above 90% since its restart, while Beaumont and Nat Gas facilities have been running at full rates since acquisition [20] Question: OCI deal and EBITDA guidance - The $50 million reduction in EBITDA guidance is primarily due to lower production in New Zealand [24] Question: Ammonia market outlook - The ammonia business currently represents about 3% to 5% of global sales, with pricing expected to rise due to tightening supply [32] Question: Gas hedging strategy - The company targets to be 50% to 70% hedged in the first three years post-acquisition, with current hedging levels around 50% [35] Question: Quarterly depreciation increase from OCI acquisition - The acquisition is expected to increase quarterly depreciation by approximately $25 million [39] Question: Trapped value within the portfolio - The value of non-operating plants is largely dependent on gas stock and feedstock availability, with no current plans to relocate assets [46][48] Question: Impact of secondary sanctions on Iran - Secondary sanctions may limit customer options but have not significantly impacted production or sales capabilities [53][54] Question: Integration priorities for OCI - The focus is on ensuring safe operations, integrating systems, and realizing synergies, with a commitment to customer delivery [59] Question: Global operating rates and market dynamics - The industry is operating well, with healthy production rates and inventories below historical norms, indicating a balanced market [79][81] Question: Marine fuel demand potential - Estimated marine fuel demand could reach around 2 million tonnes by 2025, with a focus on low carbon methanol due to regulatory pressures [82][84]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the port methanol market has intertwined long and short factors and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Inland methanol prices are expected to have limited adjustment space under the background of weak supply and demand. It is expected that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2509 running in the range of 2350 - 2420 [4]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the port market, the tense situation in the Red Sea may provide some macro - level support. However, with the recovery of overseas plants, the fundamentals may gradually return to a supply - demand pattern of relative looseness. In the inland market, most downstream industries have poor profitability or are selling at a loss. But the raw material methanol gap of major CTO plants in the northwest has widened, and some inland supplies can flow to the ports. Also, recent concentrated shutdowns of methanol plants in the production areas provide some support to the supply side. Overall, the adjustment space of inland methanol prices is expected to be limited this week [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, an increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol supply in the coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [4]. - **Expectation**: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 running in the range of 2350 - 2420 [4]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Long Factors**: Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased; the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant of Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month; major CTO plants in the northwest have an increased demand for raw material methanol [6]. - **Short Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals of ships at the ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde market has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: Various prices of methanol in the spot and futures markets are provided, including the spot price in different regions (such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, etc.), the futures closing price, and the price changes of related products. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price is 2396 yuan/ton [4][8]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, and the available and tradable supply in the coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [4]. - **Operating Rate Data**: The operating rates in different regions (such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest) and the national weighted average operating rate are provided, showing a downward trend in most regions [8]. - **Profit Data**: The production profits of different methanol production processes (coal - based, natural - gas - based, and coke - oven - gas - based) are provided, with different profit trends for each process [21]. - **Downstream Product Data**: The prices, production profits, and operating rates of traditional downstream products (formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid) and MTO products are provided, showing different trends for each product [31][34][46]. 4. Maintenance Conditions - **Domestic Plants**: Multiple domestic methanol plants in different regions (Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast) are in various maintenance states, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, temporary shutdowns due to failures, and production capacity reductions [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Overseas methanol plants, mainly in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and the United States, have different operating conditions, including normal operation, restarting, and low - level operation [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Olefin plants in different regions (Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, and Northeast) have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and low - load operation [58].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The domestic methanol market declined significantly this week. In the inland market, after the positive effects of the easing of Sino - US trade relations weakened, the market sentiment returned to rationality. Although some CTO plants in Ningxia continued to purchase methanol, the traditional downstream entered the off - season, and the operating rates of downstream products like MTBE decreased. With high - profit incentives, the inland methanol plants had high operating enthusiasm, leading to an obvious supply - demand contradiction. Traders were less motivated to purchase, and methanol plants in production areas accumulated inventory and continuously cut prices. In the port market, both futures and spot prices dropped sharply. After the market digested the macro - sentiment and the crude oil price fell significantly, although the restart of an olefin plant in Lianyungang increased demand, the concentrated arrival of ships in the second half of the month led to inventory accumulation, and the basis of port methanol weakened [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review The domestic methanol market as a whole declined significantly this week. Inland market: After the positive effects of Sino - US trade relations weakened, the market sentiment became rational. Traditional downstream entered the off - season, and downstream product profitability was difficult, leading to a decline in operating rates. High - profit - driven high inland methanol production enthusiasm led to supply - demand contradictions, inventory accumulation in production areas, and price cuts. In the port market: Futures and spot prices dropped in tandem. After the digestion of macro - sentiment and a sharp decline in crude oil prices, although the restart of an olefin plant increased demand, inventory accumulation due to concentrated ship arrivals and a lack of positive fundamental drivers led to a weakening of the methanol basis [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Domestic Methanol Spot Price**: The prices in regions such as Jiangsu, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian all decreased, with a decline of 3.58% in Jiangsu [6]. - **Methanol Basis**: The basis in Jiangsu weakened, with a weekly decline of 23 yuan/ton [8]. - **Methanol Production Profits by Process**: Coal - based production profits decreased by 98 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based production profits remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based production profits increased by 328 yuan/ton [10]. - **Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load**: The national load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12]. - **External Methanol Prices and Spreads**: CFR China prices decreased by 1.92% to 256 US dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia prices decreased by 1.50% to 327.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread remained unchanged [15]. - **Methanol Import Spreads**: The import cost decreased by 1.86%, and the import spread decreased by 42 yuan/ton [18]. - **Traditional Downstream Product Prices of Methanol**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [22]. - **Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products**: Formaldehyde production profits increased by 24 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90%; dimethyl ether production profits increased by 78 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82%; acetic acid production profits increased by 47 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% [26][28][33]. - **MTO Production Profits and Loads**: MTO production profits increased by 272 yuan/ton, and the load decreased slightly [37]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The inventory in East China increased by 1.31 to 23.11, and the inventory in South China decreased by 0.94 to 16.27 [38]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: Warehouse receipts decreased by 37.76% to 5997, and effective forecasts decreased by 100% to 0 [40]. 3.3 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Multiple domestic methanol production enterprises in regions such as the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in maintenance, with varying maintenance periods and loss volumes [42]. - **Foreign Methanol Device Operation**: Some foreign methanol production enterprises in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions, including normal operation, restart, and maintenance [43]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises in regions such as the Northwest, East China, and Central China have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and parking [44].

I. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating II. Core Viewpoints - The price of crude oil futures in Europe and the United States continued to decline due to OPEC and its eight allied countries accelerating production increases, triggering concerns about more supply. But the situation in the Middle East may deteriorate, narrowing the decline in international oil prices at the end of the session. Short - term outlook for oil prices is bearish [3]. - The domestic methanol market is mainly bullish in the short - term. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories dropped significantly [3]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Crude Oil - SC near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 490.0, up 10.0 (2.08%) from the day before. The trading volume was 9, and the open interest was 2,456, with a decrease of 3 [2]. - SC next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 471.1, down 12.5 (-2.58%) from the day before. The trading volume was 128,314, and the open interest was 22,870, with a decrease of 3,357 [2]. - WTI near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 58.38, down 0.60 (-1.02%) from the day before. The trading volume was 167,984, and the open interest was 226,780, with an increase of 4,207 [2]. - WTI next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 57.94, down 0.50 (-0.86%) from the day before. The trading volume was 373,281, and the open interest was 587,561, with a decrease of 18,868 [2]. - Brent near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 60.25, down 1.20 (-1.95%) from the day before. The trading volume was 236,097, and the open interest was 357,456, with an increase of 13,396 [2]. - Brent next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 59.97, down 1.11 (-1.82%) from the day before [2]. Methanol - 01 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2316, down 25.0 (-1.07%) from the day before. The trading volume was 18,626, and the open interest was 116,830, with an increase of 4,357 [2]. - 05 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2311, down 44.0 (-1.87%) from the day before. The trading volume was 30,174, and the open interest was 7,735, with a decrease of 23,333 [2]. - 09 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2251, down 27.0 (-1.19%) from the day before. The trading volume was 494,490, and the open interest was 635,491, with a decrease of 19,453 [2]. 2. Spot Market Crude Oil - International market: OPEC's basket of crude oil price was 61.80, Brent DTD was 61.47, Russian ESPD was 58.29, Oman was 62.12, Dubai was 62.18, and Cinta was 60.42 [2]. - Domestic market: The price of Daqing crude oil was 59.79, Shengli was 59.10. The Chinese gasoline wholesale price index was 8,046 yuan/ton, and the Chinese diesel wholesale price index was 6,800 yuan/ton. FOB naphtha in Singapore was 62.18, and the ex - factory price of aviation kerosene was 5,445 yuan/ton [2]. Methanol - The spot price in the port was 0 US dollars, in East China was 2492.5 yuan, and in North China was 2395 yuan [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Strategy Crude Oil - OPEC and its eight allied countries will implement a daily production adjustment of 411,000 barrels starting from June 2025 based on the May 2025 production level, equivalent to a three - month increase [3]. - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran, which may lead to the deterioration of the Middle East situation [3]. Methanol - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.38%, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. As of April 24, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 71.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47 percentage points but a year - on - year increase of 2.45 percentage points [3]. - Coastal methanol inventories were 58.1 tons as of April 24, down 10.93 tons (15.83%) from April 17, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.07%. The estimated tradable supply of methanol in coastal areas was around 20.4 tons. It is estimated that the arrival volume of imported methanol ships from April 25 to May 11 will be between 533,700 - 540,000 tons [3].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the methanol market from April 21 - 25, provided by Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market continued its regional trend this week, with significant differences between ports and inland areas. Inland supply was tight initially but was later suppressed by port inflows and changing market sentiment. Port prices were influenced by macro - factors and fundamentals [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Comment - The inland methanol market initially rose due to pre - holiday stocking and supply tightness but later declined due to port inflows, high - price caution, and changing supply - demand expectations. The port market was affected by macro - news and fundamentals, with prices rising and then falling [5] 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Prices - In different regions, prices showed various trends. For example, Jiangsu had a 0.08% weekly increase, while Inner Mongolia had a 3.65% decrease [6] 2.2 Methanol Basis - The basis in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week. The spot price had a 0.08% increase, and the futures price had a 0.97% increase [8] 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit decreased by 52 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based increased by 340 yuan/ton [10] 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationwide, the load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and in the northwest, it decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12] 2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China decreased by 0.57% to 261 dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 0.88% to 339.5 dollars/ton, and the spread increased by 1.5 dollars/ton [15] 2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost decreased by 0.55%, and the import spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [18] 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - Formaldehyde and dimethyl ether prices remained unchanged, while acetic acid decreased by 2.48% [23] 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde profit increased by 11 yuan/ton, load increased by 0.90%; dimethyl ether profit increased by 36 yuan/ton, load increased by 0.82%; acetic acid profit decreased by 71 yuan/ton, load increased by 1.94% [24][26][31] 2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO profit was negative, and the load decreased slightly [35] 2.10 Methanol Port Inventories - In the East China port, inventory decreased by 6.98, and in the South China port, it decreased by 3.18 [36] 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts decreased by 4.19%, and effective forecasts increased by 450.45% [40] 3. Maintenance Status 3.1 Domestic Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises had maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance periods and losses [42] 3.2 Overseas Device Operation - Overseas methanol devices in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., had different operation statuses, such as some in the process of restarting and some running normally [43] 3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin devices in different regions had different operation statuses, with some running stably, some under maintenance, and some with planned future maintenance [44]