1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, on the supply side, with the peak - winter coal - using season approaching, coal prices are expected to remain firm. Northwest CTO continues external procurement, methanol auction prices are strong, coal - to - methanol profits will be maintained, and domestic methanol operating rates will reach new highs. In terms of imports, Iranian plants are stable, and the import volume in December is expected to increase to 1.6 million tons, with slow destocking of port inventories. On the demand side, there is no incremental demand in December. New MTO plants are to be put into operation at the end of the year, but limited by compressed profits, some port MTO plants will resume. Traditional demand capacity continues to expand, but there are few bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [4][96]. - High inventory pressure persists, but as Iran starts gas rationing and some plants shut down, methanol is oscillating to build a bottom [5][96]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In December, the supply is relatively abundant with high domestic operating rates and expected import increase. Demand has no significant growth [4][96]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading should focus on oscillating to build a bottom. For arbitrage, long - term attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 positive spread in inter - period arbitrage and the repair opportunity of PP - 3MA in cross - variety arbitrage. The lower limit is 2050 yuan/ton [5][9][96]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In November 2025, domestic mainstream methanol spot prices declined. Macroeconomic factors such as US economic data, tariff contradictions, and domestic policies affected the market. With the return to fundamentals and high port inventories, methanol futures declined more [10][11]. - On the supply side, domestic coal demand decreased in November, but inland methanol prices were firm. Coal - to - methanol profits shrank slightly but remained high. Domestic supply was loose, especially in the northwest. In the port area, MTO plant operating rates were stable. International plant operating rates were high and stable, and Iranian shipping speed increased in November, with an expected import volume of 1.65 million tons in December [14][19][21]. - The average prices in different regions declined month - on - month. International methanol operating rates were stable in November, with some plant changes. US supply was high, and overall demand was weak, leading to a weak methanol price [23][25][27]. 3.2.2 Supply Analysis - From 2024 to 2027, the new methanol plant commissioning enters a contraction cycle. In 2024, China's methanol capacity increased by about 3% year - on - year, with a total output of 75 million tons. The actual new capacity in 2024 was 3 million tons. In 2025, the capacity is expected to increase by about 3% year - on - year, with a total output of 85 million tons, and the actual new capacity (for sale) is 1.9 million tons [30][38]. - In November 2024, new domestic methanol plant commissioning was limited, with various production processes involved. In December 2025, the new commissioning pressure remains small [33][38]. - In November, coal prices fluctuated slightly, methanol prices declined, and coal - to - methanol profits narrowed but remained high. It is expected to remain high in December [40]. - Coal - to - methanol profits are high, and the operating rates are at a high level. As of the end of November, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 76.25%, and the northwest operating load was 85.76%. The coal - single - methanol operating rate was 97.15%. From January to October 2025, domestic methanol production increased significantly [43][47]. - In December, coal prices are expected to be stable and firm. With the return of overhauled plants, the overall operating rate will increase slightly, and enterprise inventories are expected to be stable [49][52]. 3.2.3 December Import Forecast - From January to November 2025, China is expected to import about 12.83 million tons of methanol. As of November, Iranian shipping exceeded 1.16 million tons, and non - Iranian transshipment exceeded 600,000 tons. The import volume in December is expected to exceed 1.6 million tons [56][58]. - In 2024, international new capacity slowed down, with new projects mainly in the US and Malaysia. In 2025, international new capacity is still large, especially in Iran, where 4.95 million tons of new capacity are planned [62][64]. - Currently, some Iranian plants are shut down, and the daily output has decreased. The import volume in December is expected to be 1.6 million tons. High - level imports and stable MTO demand lead to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. As of the end of November, the total port inventory was 1.47 million tons [67][69][72]. 3.2.4 Limited Demand Increment in December and Little Macro - level Change - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In November, trade and geopolitical conflicts affected the domestic macro - environment, and the Fed's interest - rate cut timing is worthy of attention. In October, China's economic output remained stable, but the manufacturing PMI declined [76][77]. - In November, there was no new MTO plant commissioning. In the second half of 2025, 1.45 million tons of new MTO plants are expected to be commissioned, but some are postponed. Some MTO plants face elimination pressure due to profit and industrial - structure issues [83][87]. - In December, traditional downstream demand is unlikely to increase. The fundamentals of traditional downstream sectors are differentiated, with formaldehyde, MTBE, and DMF having stable increments, and acetic acid, BDO, and DMC having more new increments. Some industries' operating rates are affected by weak demand [93]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Similar to the preface, in December, supply is abundant, and demand has no significant growth [96]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading should focus on oscillating to build a bottom. For arbitrage, long - term attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 positive spread in inter - period arbitrage and the repair opportunity of PP - 3MA in cross - variety arbitrage. The lower limit is 2050 yuan/ton [96].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market has been under pressure since the second half of the year, with prices dropping significantly due to increased supply and decreased demand, but there are signs of potential stabilization as winter approaches and inventory levels decrease [1][2]. Cost Support - In 2024, China's methanol industry is expected to see both production and consumption increase, but a supply-demand mismatch is anticipated to lead to lower prices in the second half of 2025. The dominant production method is coal-based methanol, accounting for 78.3% of total production, with new gasification technologies improving efficiency [2]. - A decline in coal prices in 2024 is easing cost pressures for coal-based methanol producers, while rising coal and natural gas prices in winter 2025 may create cost challenges, providing a mixed outlook for pricing stability [2]. Supply Reduction and Demand Increase - The methanol industry has seen steady capacity growth, with annual production expected to exceed 112 million tons in 2024 and an additional 5 million tons projected for 2025, marking a growth rate of over 4.4%. However, demand recovery has not met expectations, leading to continued market weakness [3]. - A significant shift occurred in late November, with total domestic methanol supply at 2.303 million tons and demand at 2.3779 million tons, indicating a reversal in supply-demand dynamics. Anticipated reductions in imports due to seasonal factors and rising costs are expected to support domestic production cuts [3]. Inventory Decline - As of November 22, domestic methanol inventory stood at 358,700 tons, showing a slight decline. Most regions, except for the Southwest, are experiencing inventory reductions, particularly in the Northwest due to strong demand for external procurement and active sales strategies [4]. - High import levels in October and November have contributed to elevated port inventories, but recent trends indicate a significant reduction in port stocks, particularly in East China, which may positively influence future market stability [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the methanol market is basically in supply - demand balance. The port arrival volume has slightly increased, but the inventory fluctuation is limited. The downstream demand has recovered, with the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as olefins and dimethyl ether increasing, which drives up consumption. The coal price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the slight increase in logistics freight rates supports the market. It is expected that the methanol price will maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and changes in port inventory to operate according to the market rhythm. The market shows a benign interaction between supply and demand, with limited price fluctuation space, and structural opportunities can be moderately focused on [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Regional Spot Prices**: In the spot market, the current prices in Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Taicang, Guangdong, Shandong Linyi, and Henan are 2000, 1985, 1905, 2135, 2020 respectively. The previous values were 2000, 1978, 1905, 2000, 2145, 2000 respectively. The price changes are 0, 7, 0, -5, -10, 20 respectively [1]. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: For futures contracts MA2601 and MA2605, the current values are 2004 and 2138 respectively, the previous values are 2016 and 2153 respectively, and the price increases are -0.60% and -0.70% respectively [1]. Market Analysis - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The methanol market is in a state of basic supply - demand balance this week. Port arrivals have slightly increased, and downstream demand has recovered, with major downstream sectors increasing their operating rates [2]. - **Price Trend**: Coal prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the slight increase in logistics freight rates supports the market. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend [2].

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures have shown a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching 2079.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.18% increase as of November 24 [1] Market Overview - As of November 21, the average price of methanol in Inner Mongolia was 1960 CNY/ton, down 1.58% month-on-month [2] - Domestic methanol overall operating load was 76.25% as of November 20, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the previous month, but an increase of 1.54 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Methanol inventory at East China ports was 787,600 tons as of November 20, a decrease of 15,700 tons from 803,300 tons on November 13 [2] Institutional Insights - Yide Futures noted a slight decrease in domestic operating rates, with companies like Jiutai and Kaiyue delaying restarts. A recovery in operating rates is expected, while overseas operations remain unchanged. Iranian facilities are fully operational but are expected to begin gas restrictions at the end of November, leading to a decrease in port arrivals. Downstream operating rates are rising, but overall inventory levels remain high due to stable domestic operations and high import volumes [3] - Guangda Futures highlighted that domestic maintenance operations are stable, restoring supply to high levels. However, Iranian facilities may face shutdowns due to gas restrictions, which could significantly reduce arrivals in January. The methanol market is expected to experience bottom-side fluctuations, with attention needed on gas restriction rhythms and inventory depletion sustainability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical products sector, particularly methanol, has been the weakest performer in the domestic commodity market over the past two months, with methanol futures contracts experiencing a continuous decline and reaching a new low since July 2023 [1] Group 1: Supply and Inventory - High inventory pressure is the main reason for the continuous decline in methanol prices, with port inventories reaching multi-year highs [2] - As of November 13, China's methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, with port inventory totaling 1.5436 million tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous week [2] - The supply pressure is expected to increase as domestic methanol production facilities resume operations and import shipments arrive, particularly in the East China region [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Demand from traditional downstream sectors is expected to decline as they enter the off-season, leading to reduced procurement of raw materials [2] - The profitability of the polyolefin sector remains under pressure, which may further lower operational rates and reduce demand for methanol [2] - Despite no significant drop in pre-sale orders from methanol companies, year-on-year demand remains weak, especially with cautious purchasing from inland regions [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts generally believe that the weak methanol market is likely to continue due to high inventory levels and insufficient demand [3] - The ability for methanol prices to rebound will depend on inventory changes and production facility adjustments [3] - In the short term, the methanol market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance, with a focus on monitoring port inventory changes and the operational status of MTO enterprises [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall methanol market today is mainly influenced by absolute factors. Spot prices have declined, with abundant available resources at ports but few buyers and a dull trading atmosphere. The inland market is mixed, with prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line rising slightly due to some plant shutdowns and external procurement by olefin plants, and prices in Shandong rising slightly due to the premium成交 of auctions in Henan. Markets in North and Central China are mainly fluctuating and consolidating, while prices in the Southwest are continuously decreasing as manufacturers try to stimulate demand by lowering prices. The current market supply and demand are in a stalemate, with traditional downstream industries having poor profitability and purchasing on demand, and external procurement by olefins providing some support. It is expected that the national methanol market will operate in a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Regional Prices and Changes**: In the spot market, the current prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Xinjiang (outside the region), Shandong Linyi, Taicang, and Henan are 2060, 1620, 2008, 1940, 2180, and 2065 respectively. The previous values were 2060, 1550, 2003, 1935, 2165, and 2040 respectively. The price increases are 0, 70, 5, 5, 15, and 25 respectively [1] - **Taicang Transaction Prices**: On the morning of November 11th, the spot transaction price range in Taicang was 2050 - 2060 (01 - 40), the mid - November price range was 2070 - 2075 (01 - 30), and the late - November price was 2080 (01 - 15) [3] Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts MA2601 and MA2605, the current values are 2082 and 2194 respectively, the previous values were 2101 and 2208 respectively, and the price increases are - 0.90% and - 0.63% respectively [1] Company Device Status - **Yizhou Technology Co., Ltd.**: Its 30 (15 + 15) million - ton/year coke - oven gas - to - methanol plant has been operating with a single unit since November 8th for 15 days [3] - **Jiangsu Sopo**: Its 86 (56 + 30) million - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant stopped on October 10th for an expected 30 days and resumed normal operation on November 10th [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the methanol market maintained a narrow - range oscillation. Although the port inventory reached a new high and the structure weakened, the decline was small due to market expectations of supply - demand improvement in the peak season. After the National Day, the port inventory further increased, and combined with the decline of energy - chemical products such as crude oil, the market broke through the support level and declined. Currently, the real - world port situation remains weak, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply is under pressure with high domestic production and increasing imports, while the demand has weakened. However, the cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and the subsequent fundamentals may improve marginally, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: In September, the domestic methanol production was 809 million tons, a month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase. With the return of previously shut - down devices, the domestic operating rate has returned to a high level. The traditional demand in the peak season in September improved slightly, but the overall profit is poor, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The cost - end support is not obvious, the basis is stable at a low level, and the 1 - 5 spread has reached a new low. The methanol valuation is moderately high, and the port inventory has increased significantly, reaching 1.54 million tons, a year - on - year high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively healthy at 339,000 tons, a year - on - year low [11]. - **Market Logic**: The energy - chemical sector declined weakly, and the supply - demand situation of methanol itself remained weak, with the inland market weaker than the port market, leading to the market's downward breakthrough [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: In September, the prices of some methanol contracts and spot markets changed. For example, the 09 contract increased by 125 yuan/ton, the 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Among the domestic spot markets, the prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang increased, while those in Hebei and Shanxi decreased [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market showed an increase in open interest and a decline in price [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of raw materials such as IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and动力煤 (thermal coal) fluctuated [33][35][37]. - **Production Profit**: The coal - to - methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia and other places showed a downward trend from a high level, and the MTO profit also decreased [11]. - **Inventory Situation**: The port inventory is at a historical high, while the factory inventory is at a year - on - year low [44][46]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: New methanol production capacities are being put into operation, with a total of 7.45 million tons of new capacity from several enterprises in the northwest region expected to be gradually put into production from 2025 [55]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly production have returned to high levels, and the overseas methanol operating rate also shows certain trends [57][58][60]. - **Imports**: The import volume and arrival volume have increased, and the import volume from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia shows different trends [64][67][69]. - **Price Spreads**: There are various price spreads, including international price spreads and domestic regional price spreads, which reflect the market's supply - demand relationship and cost differences [76][79]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: The consumption and end - of - period inventory of methanol show certain trends over time [86]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: The olefin operating rate and the operating rate of MTO in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reached high levels, but the profit of MTO has declined. The production profits of different PP production processes also show different trends [88][90][97]. - **Downstream Products**: The operating rates and profits of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and MTBE show different trends [109][112][114]. 3.6 Option - related - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: The option trading volume and open interest of methanol show certain characteristics, and the PCR of option open interest and trading volume also has corresponding values [121]. - **Option Volatility**: The historical volatility and implied volatility of methanol options show certain trends [123]. 3.7 Industrial Structure Diagram - **Industrial Chain Diagram**: The methanol industrial chain and research framework analysis mind - map are presented, showing the overall structure and analysis framework of the methanol industry [126][128].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to maintain a downward - prone trend due to weak supply - demand fundamentals, with high supply pressure from device resumption and increasing external imports, as well as sluggish downstream demand [2][9] Summary by Related Aspects Supply - Since the third quarter of this year, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been abundant. Iranian device restarted with increased operating rate, and India's shift to non - Iranian sources led to more Iranian shipments to China. Excess methanol from Europe also flowed to China, pushing up imports. It's estimated that China's methanol imports in August might be 1.4 - 1.5 million tons and could remain at 1.4 - 1.45 million tons in September [2][4] - Since September, some domestic methanol devices have been under maintenance, causing a decline in weekly operating rate and output. As of September 19, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, down 1.81% week - on - week, 1.26% month - on - month, and 1.53% year - on - year. The weekly output was 1.8132 million tons, down 0.1061 million tons week - on - week, 0.0842 million tons month - on - month, and 0.0302 million tons year - on - year. September output is expected to drop to 7.8 million tons, but supply pressure will increase again after the National Day as devices resume production [3] Demand - Although the domestic methanol market has entered the traditional peak consumption season, the recovery of olefin demand has fallen short of expectations. As of September 19, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin devices was 82.88%, up 3.58% month - on - month, and the futures profit was - 183 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month [5][7] - The traditional downstream demand for methanol was also under - performing. As of September 19, the formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, up 1.06 percentage points week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, down 0.11 percentage points week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, down 3.84 percentage points week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, up 1.85 percentage points week - on - week [7] Inventory - As of September 19, the methanol inventory in ports of East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, up 0.0625 million tons week - on - week, 0.3956 million tons month - on - month, and 0.4872 million tons year - on - year. The high import volume and weak downstream demand led to a continuous increase in coastal port methanol inventory [4] Market Performance - Since this week, the main contract MA2601 of domestic methanol futures has continued a weak and volatile trend, with the price center steadily moving down to the range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic methanol futures market is returning to a weak fundamental-driven trend due to high supply pressure and weak demand, with prices expected to remain under pressure [1] - Domestic methanol production has decreased due to maintenance of several methanol plants, with an average operating rate of 79.39% and a weekly production average of 181.32 million tons, reflecting a significant drop [2] - The import volume of methanol is at a near two-year high, with expectations of continued high imports into the fourth quarter, contributing to increased port inventories [3] Group 2 - Despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, the recovery in olefin demand is below expectations, with the average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants at 82.88% [5] - The downstream demand for methanol remains weak, with various downstream products showing low operating rates, such as formaldehyde at 31.54% and dimethyl ether at 6.68% [5] - Overall, the domestic methanol market is expected to maintain a trend of being difficult to rise due to the combination of high supply and weak demand [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "Weak Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - Next week is the last procurement week before the National Day, but due to poor profitability in downstream industries, the resistance to high - priced raw materials has increased. The demand side has limited ability to boost the methanol market. Additionally, high inventory in port areas will likely lead to low - level price oscillations, which will negatively impact the inland market. Without sudden macro - positive factors, the methanol market is expected to operate weakly next week. However, the low inventory of inland factories will limit the price decline to some extent [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Domestic supply has contracted this week due to production capacity losses from device overhauls and production cuts exceeding the output supplemented by restored production capacity. The overall operating rate has slightly decreased, mainly dragged down by declines in East and North China, with only a slight increase in the Northwest [2] - Import volume has also contracted, with about 350,000 tons imported this week. The expected arrival next week is 340,000 tons, a 3% decrease from the previous week [2] Demand - Overall domestic demand shows a differentiated pattern. National Day stocking is restricted by reality, with traditional downstream industries having low profitability and limited stocking. Although the MTO load has increased, some industries like formaldehyde are in continuous losses [2] - The olefin sector is performing steadily, with the operating rate slightly rising. Some olefin plants in the Northwest are continuously inquiring about external purchases, but the restart of some plants may reduce external purchases next week [2] - Traditional downstream industries are also differentiated. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether and methane chloride have changed, while the operating rates of formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid have decreased [2] Inventory - The inventory removal pace inland has slowed down, and port inventory has shown narrow fluctuations. There is still short - term inventory removal momentum [2] - Port inventory is 1.5578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons (a year - on - year increase of 56.06%). It is expected to continue to accumulate next week due to weakened spot buying and restocking demand [2] - Inland enterprise inventory is 340,500 tons, maintaining an inventory removal trend but at a slower pace. It is expected to continue to decline next week [2] Profit - The price of thermal coal in Inner Mongolia has risen, increasing the production cost pressure of methanol. The theoretical profit of coal - based methanol has slightly shrunk [2] - Profits vary by process and downstream industry. Coal - based methanol profits have declined, while profits from coke oven gas - based and gas - based methanol have slightly recovered. Profits of some downstream industries have changed, with glacial acetic acid and MTBE improving, while methane chloride and dimethyl ether have worsened [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - Iran's National Gas Company has implemented a 10 - day gas restriction on petrochemical parks since September 19, affecting three 3.3 - million - ton methanol plants [2] Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, a long - short spread strategy of MA1 - 5 is recommended [2]