Report Information - Report Title: Zheng Sugar Weakens Again, Supply Pressure is High - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report - Report Date: October 17, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Domestic market: Zheng sugar followed the external market down significantly, breaking below the support around 5,400 yuan/ton. Although it showed signs of stabilization later in the week, domestic sugar sales are behind year-on-year, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. New season beet sugar production may be slightly lower, and cane area output may also decline due to typhoons. Import data is expected to remain high but may be lower than expected. Zheng sugar has support at 5,400 yuan/ton, but the rebound space is limited under fundamental pressure [57]. - International market: Higher-than-expected supply from Brazil and a bumper harvest in India have led to early digestion of supply pressure, causing ICE sugar prices to break below the support around 15.5 cents/pound. However, prices rebounded quickly and returned above 15.5 cents/pound. Despite strong Brazilian production data, the market did not continue to fall, mainly due to the decline in the sugar - making ratio. New negative factors are needed to break below 15 cents/pound [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures prices: Zheng sugar broke through support and then fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. ICE sugar futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.55% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - No specific analysis text is provided, only data sources are mentioned [11][12]. 3.1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - No specific analysis text is provided, only data sources are mentioned [17][18]. 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In August, sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar March contract price of 16 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,477 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,688 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost is 4,421 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,615 yuan/ton [22]. 3.1.5 Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in August was about 1.16 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons compared to the same period last year [25]. 3.1.6 ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zheng sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,438, a decrease of 460 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,438, and the valid forecast was 0 [33]. 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of September, the cumulative crushing volume was 490 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.99%, and the sugar production was 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84% [37]. 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 52.68%, compared to 48.84% in the same period last year [42]. 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in September were 3.2458 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% [48]. 3.1.10 International Main Producing Region Weather - In Brazil, there was abundant rainfall in the main producing areas, which was not conducive to sugarcane crushing. In India, precipitation decreased significantly [54]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic market: Zheng sugar may continue to be under pressure from fundamentals, with limited rebound space. Although there is support at 5,400 yuan/ton, the overall situation is not optimistic. - International market: ICE sugar prices have shown some resilience after breaking support, and new negative factors are needed to drive prices lower [57].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Zhengzhou Sugar Declines, Weakens in the Short Term - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report" and dated September 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices declined, with a weekly drop of 1.43%. ICE sugar futures oscillated weakly, with a weekly decline of 2.28% [9] Spot Price and Basis Trends - Spot prices followed the decline of Zhengzhou sugar futures prices, but the basis showed signs of strengthening and remained at a relatively high level [59] Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - No specific sales data were provided in the text, but relevant charts were presented [16] Sugar Imports - In July, 740,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4,539 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5,769 yuan per ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost was 4,580 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5,822 yuan per ton [22] Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in August was approximately 1.16 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons compared to the same period last year [25] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts plus forecasts was 10,629, a decrease of 1,116 from the previous week. There were 10,629 warehouse receipts and 0 valid forecasts [33] Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of August, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%, and the sugar production was 26.758 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92% [37] Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 52.76%, compared to 49.09% in the same period last year [42] Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in August were 3.744 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47% [45] International Main Production Area Weather - There was little rainfall in Brazil's main production areas, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation [55][56] Group 3: Market Outlook Domestic Market - Zhengzhou sugar prices declined. Spot prices followed suit. Although it was the peak season, trading volume did not improve significantly. The weak stock market dragged down the commodity market, and short - sellers increased their positions. Technically, the support level at 5,500 yuan per ton was broken, but there was cost support below this level. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term, but the downward space is limited [59] International Market - On the supply side, Brazil's production data showed that although the sugar - making ratio was slightly adjusted down, it remained above 51%. The dry weather in Brazil boosted the crushing progress, and the short - term supply pressure suppressed the market. The Asian market's high - yield expectations were still being digested, and India had high export expectations, but there was a lack of motivation at current prices. The price close to 15 cents per pound was close to the production cost of major international producers. Overall, the market was bearish, but the probability of a sharp decline was low [59] Group 4: Operation Suggestion - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - International market: It is in a low-level consolidation phase, and there is an opportunity to re - evaluate Brazil's sugar production. The 24/25 sugar - making season has a significant global supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to see a restorative increase in production and inventory in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. New York raw sugar is likely to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][33] - Domestic market: It is in a range - bound consolidation, and there is an opportunity at the lower end of the range. In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the domestic market is expected to have continuous production increases and cost decreases. The import policy for syrup and premixed powder has tightened. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets continues. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield rate in Guangxi and an increase in production costs [3][33] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 International Market - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 97.85 (previous value: 97.72), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.43 (previous value: 5.44) [1][5] - Commodity prices: WTI crude oil price is $64.01 per barrel (+0.38%), and the price of the active contract for New York raw sugar is 16.34 cents per pound (-0.61%) [1] - CFTC positions: As of August 26, long positions of funds decreased by 1,247 lots, short positions increased by 1,426 lots, and net long positions decreased by 2,673 lots to - 98,204 lots [1][15] - Production data: As of August 16, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 22.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season. OCSB data shows that Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Domestic Market - Price data: The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 5,940 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton; Zhengzhou sugar's main contract is reported at 5,604 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract increased slightly [2][14] - Production and consumption data: As of May, China's sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons. CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of July, China's cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 3.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,000 tons [2][14][27] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook 3.2.1 International Market - Market trend: Low - level consolidation, with an opportunity to re - evaluate Brazil's production. The market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. The 24/25 season has a significant supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to see production increases and inventory accumulation. New York raw sugar is likely to oscillate at a low level [3][33] - Focus points: Brazil's production and export rhythm, and India's relevant industrial policies [3][33] 3.2.2 Domestic Market - Market trend: Range - bound consolidation, with an opportunity at the lower end of the range. The domestic market in the 24/25 season is expected to have continuous production increases and cost decreases. Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The 25/26 season is expected to have a decline in the sugar yield rate in Guangxi and an increase in production costs [3][33] - Focus points: The lower end of the price range [3][33] 3.3 Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 97.85 (previous value: 97.72), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.43 (previous value: 5.44) [5] - Crude oil: WTI crude oil price is $64.01 per barrel (+0.38%) [5] 3.4 Industry Data 3.4.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The price of the active contract for New York raw sugar is 16.34 cents per pound (-0.61%). The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 5,940 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton; Zhengzhou sugar's main contract is reported at 5,604 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract increased slightly [14] - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou white sugar were 13,916 lots [15] - CFTC positions: As of August 26, long positions of funds decreased by 1,247 lots, short positions increased by 1,426 lots, and net long positions decreased by 2,673 lots to - 98,204 lots [1][15] 3.4.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - Global supply and demand: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previous prediction: 4.88 million tons) [26] - Brazil: As of August 16, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 354 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.6%; sugar production was 22.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; alcohol production was 16.07 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 12%; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio for sugar production was 52.51%, compared with 49.14% in the same period of the previous year [26] - India: As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season [26] - Thailand: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [27] - China: CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons (+100,000 tons), and imports will be 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons (+100,000 tons), and imports 5 million tons. Customs data shows that sugar imports in July 2025 were 740,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 24/25 season were 3.25 million tons. As of May, the national sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons, sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69% [27]

Report Title - "Zhengzhou Sugar's Downside Limited After Adjustment, Focus on Consumption - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - August 31, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - After continuous adjustment of sugar prices, the downside is limited supported by the peak season in the domestic market; in the international market, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to support from supply and demand sides. Short - term trading is recommended [58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Sugar Market Analysis 1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures adjusted this week with a weekly decline of 1.16%, while ICE sugar futures fluctuated at a low level with a weekly increase of 0.36% [9] 1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not detailed in the provided text 1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - For August 2025, Guangxi's sugar sales are expected to be 35 - 40 tons, similar to 36 tons in the same period last year; Yunnan's sugar sales are expected to be 13 - 16 tons, less than last month [58] 1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In July 2025, sugar imports were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents per pound, Brazil's in - quota import cost is 4,539 yuan per ton and out - of - quota is 5,769 yuan per ton; Thailand's in - quota import cost is 4,580 yuan per ton and out - of - quota is 5,822 yuan per ton [23] 1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in July was approximately 1.6123 million tons, a decrease of 99,500 tons compared to the same period last year [26] 1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 17,284, a decrease of 1,331 from last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 17,284 and valid forecasts were 0 [34] 1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of July 2025, the cumulative crushing volume was 306 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.57%, and sugar production was 19.268 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.76% [38] 1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern part of Brazil was 52.06%, compared to 49.13% in the same period last year [43] 1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in July 2025 were 3.5937 million tons, a decrease of 4.6% compared to the same period last year [45] 1.10 International Main Producing Areas' Weather Conditions - India has abundant precipitation; Brazil's main producing areas have less rainfall, which is beneficial for sugarcane pressing [52][54] 2.后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar prices have been falling, mainly affected by the approaching delivery of the 2509 contract. After adjustment, the downside is limited supported by the peak season. International market: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to potential supply reduction in Brazil and strong demand from Pakistan and China. Short - term trading is recommended [58][59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.11%. The international raw sugar market maintained a low - level oscillating trend, while the domestic market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign markets. Although the inventory pressure of domestic sugar is not large and the double - festival stocking expectation provides support for sugar prices, factors such as a significant increase in imports, upcoming sugar mill openings in the north, and high expected output in the new season will limit the upside space of prices. The report suggests short - selling at high prices with light positions and controlling risks. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and the global supply is expected to be loose. However, there are concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows signs of improvement. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade. The demand is expected to increase due to double - festival stocking. The inventory pressure is not large, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new season's output is expected to be at a high level in the past four years [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - sell at high prices with light positions and control risks [6]. - **Future Concerns**: Consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US sugar declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 0.67%. As of August 12, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 1.41% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net positions increased by 10.99% month - on - month. The net positions of the top 20 holders of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 14,220 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 15,555 lots [9][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 15, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.94 cents per pound, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. As of August 22, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan per ton. As of August 18, 2025, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,706 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%; the in - quota price was 4,491 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,729 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%; the in - quota price was 4,509 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. As of August 18, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,364 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%; the out - of - quota profit was 149 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 16.41%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,346 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the out - of - quota profit was 126 yuan per ton [12][22][25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. In July, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [34][38][42]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.66%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [46][51]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week was presented, but no specific data was given [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information on the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but no specific data was given [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded in the first half - week, following the strong bullish sentiment of the overall commodities. However, the pressure above 5650 increased significantly, and then it turned to consolidation. The upcoming release of July's imported sugar data is expected to show 700,000 tons, much higher than last year's 420,000 tons. Although the large - scale listing of refined sugar suppresses sugar prices, the rising Zhengzhou sugar price this week led to an increase in spot prices and accelerated inventory clearance, limiting the downside of sugar prices [49]. - Internationally, the market is starting to focus on Brazil's annual production data, with estimates for the 2025/26 season tending to be below 40 million tons. Demand has improved, as Pakistan plans to import 500,000 tons of sugar, has already purchased 55,000 tons, and is holding a new tender for 200,000 tons of refined sugar. The downward adjustment of Brazil's production estimate and improved demand support international sugar prices [49]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Movement**: Zhengzhou sugar rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of 1.63%. ICE sugar recovered from a low, with a weekly increase of 1.91% [8]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trend**: No specific analysis content is provided, only the data source is mentioned [12][13]. - **Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan**: No specific analysis content is provided, only the data source is mentioned [15][16]. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In June, imports were 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,539 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,769 yuan per ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost is 4,580 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,822 yuan per ton [20]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [24]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 17,284, a decrease of 1,331 from the previous week. There were 17,284 warehouse receipts and 0 valid forecasts [28]. - **Brazil's Production Progress**: In the first half of July, the cumulative crushing volume was 256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.61%, and the sugar production was 1.5655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [29]. - **Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 51.58%, compared with 48.89% in the same period last year [36]. - **Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports**: Brazil's sugar exports in July were 3.5937 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [41]. - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: Rainfall in Brazil's main production areas decreased, which is beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation [45]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou sugar will continue to be affected by factors such as imported sugar volume and inventory clearance. The large - scale listing of refined sugar suppresses prices, but the increase in spot prices and accelerated inventory clearance limit the downside [49]. - **International Market**: Brazil's production estimate and international demand will affect international sugar prices. The downward adjustment of Brazil's production estimate and improved demand provide support [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market lacks information guidance and will mainly undergo low - level consolidation. The market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The 24/25 sugar - making season is likely to see a large global supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to have restorative production increases and inventory accumulation in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The downward trend of New York raw sugar has ended, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][35] - The domestic market will experience range - bound consolidation with a pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets. In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the domestic market maintains the expectation of continuous production increase and cost reduction. The import policy for syrup and premixed powder has been tightened, and domestic prices will move closer to the cost of out - of - quota imports. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets will continue [3][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 98.46 (previous value 97.87), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.55 (previous value 5.57) [6] - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $66.03 per barrel, a decrease of 3.96% [6] 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 16.79 cents per pound, an increase of 1.39%. The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 6040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5826 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan per ton compared to last week. The basis of the main contract is basically flat [15] - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 21,477 lots [15] - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of July 15, fund long positions increased by 2480 lots, fund short positions decreased by 2682 lots, and net long positions increased by 5162 lots to - 94,560 lots, with a slight increase in net long positions [15] 2.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects a supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previous value was a shortage of 4.88 million tons) [24] - Brazil: As of July 1, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in central - southern Brazil was 206 million tons, a 14% decrease compared to the same period last year; sugar production was 12.25 million tons, a 14% decrease; alcohol production was 9.43 billion liters, a 15% decrease; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio was 51.02%, compared to 48.69% in the same period last year [24] - India: As of May 15, in the 24/25 sugar - making season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons [24] - Thailand: In the 24/25 sugar - making season, Thailand's sugar production was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [25] - China's supply - demand data: CAOC expects domestic sugar production of 11.16 million tons, consumption of 15.8 million tons, and imports of 5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season; and production of 11.2 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and imports of 5 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season. Customs data shows that in June 2025, sugar imports were 420,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 24/25 sugar - making season were 2.51 million tons [15][25] - China's production - sales data: As of the end of May, in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons. The national sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69% [15][25] 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Lack information guidance and mainly conduct low - level consolidation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [35] - Domestic market: Conduct range - bound consolidation with a pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets. Trading is centered around the import rhythm, and the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets will continue [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the previous rebound of Zhengzhou sugar caused by capital games has ended, and the market has turned to consolidation. The main short - position has reversed to a net long - position, which may support the sugar price to rebound further if the long - position increases. The domestic market is influenced by macro anti - involution and shows a bullish trend. The spot market has improved with rising prices. The upcoming June production and sales data is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. Low inventory still supports prices, but attention should be paid to the price changes of processed sugar. The operating range is expected to be between 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton. - In the international market, the raw sugar market has calmed down after significant fluctuations. The international market is still pressured by Brazil's large supply, but the market is not optimistic about Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June, with an expected year - on - year decline of 9.8% to 295,000 tons. Purchases from Pakistan and the Philippines in the international market may limit the downside of international sugar prices [59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.71%. ICE sugar futures fluctuated slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.67% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No specific data on price and basis trends are described in the provided text. - **National Production and Sales Situation**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18]. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4539 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5769 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 4580 yuan/ton, and the out - quota import cost was 5822 yuan/ton [22]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 322,100 tons compared with the same period last year [25]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 23,040, a decrease of 480 compared with the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 22,934, and the effective forecast was 106 [33]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the first half of June, the cumulative crushing volume was 164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.33%, and the sugar production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.63% [37]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.45%, compared with 48.33% in the same period last year [39]. - **Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports**: Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3.359 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.24% [45]. - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: There was little rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation due to the influence of the monsoon [53][55]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar market is expected to operate in the range of 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the price changes of processed sugar [59]. - **International Market**: The raw sugar market is expected to have limited downside due to purchases from Pakistan and the Philippines, despite pressure from Brazil's supply [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term trading is recommended [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the sugar production in the 2024/25 season is settled at 1.11621 billion tons, up 119,890 tons year - on - year. The sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. With an expected import of over 400,000 tons in May, the overall supply faces pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar futures are under downward pressure. However, the high basis provides some support, and it may face strong resistance below 5,700 yuan/ton, with a possible short - term bottom - building rebound [60]. - Internationally, Petrobras cut the average gasoline price by 5.6% on June 3. The estimated sugar production in India for the 2025/26 season is about 3.5 billion tons. The short - term international sugar price is under pressure with limited upside, but the Brazilian production progress and weather factors need attention. The downside space below 17 cents/pound is relatively limited [60]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [61]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated to find the bottom this week, with a weekly decline of 0.49%. ICE sugar futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 2.81% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No detailed content about spot price and basis trends is provided other than the data source [13]. - **National Production and Sales**: In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. - **Sugar Imports**: In April, 130,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar futures July contract price of 17 cents/pound, the in - quota and out - of - quota import costs from Brazil and Thailand are provided [24]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In May 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 32,210 tons compared with the same period last year [27]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 29,893, a decrease of 1,688 from last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 29,893, and the valid forecast was 0 [35]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the first half of May, the cumulative crushing volume was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.24%, and the sugar production was 398,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.68% [39]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.61%, compared with 47.6% last year [41]. - **Brazilian Sugar Monthly Exports**: In April, Brazil's sugar export volume was 1.5526 million tons, a decrease of 335,000 tons compared with the same period last year [51]. - **International Main Production Area Weather**: In India, the monsoon brought increased precipitation. In Brazil, increased rainfall in the main production areas was unfavorable for sugarcane crushing [55][56]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic market: With production determined and sales leading, supply pressure exists, but high basis provides support. There may be a short - term bottom - building rebound. - International market: Gasoline price cuts in Brazil and expected high production in India put pressure on sugar prices, but attention should be paid to Brazilian production and weather [60].

Report Title - "Long - Term Fundamentals Under Pressure, Limited Upside for Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - Guoxin Futures' Weekly Sugar Report", dated April 20, 2025 [2] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, short - term new supply of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but there is pressure for a supply increase in the medium term, and weather risks remain. It is expected to fluctuate between 5850 - 6100 yuan/ton. Internationally, short - term raw sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level [59] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures had a narrow - range fluctuation this week with a weekly increase of 0.15%. ICE sugar futures had a weak oscillation with a weekly decline of 0.34% [11] - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **National Production and Sales Situation**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in March was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster than the same period last year [20] - **Sugar Import Situation**: From January to February, imports were 80,000 tons, a decrease of 1.11 million tons compared to the same period last year. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 19 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 5188 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 6615 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost was 5268 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 6719 yuan/ton [25] - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in March was 4.7521 million tons, a decrease of 86,500 tons compared to the same period last year [28] - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 28,776, an increase of 0 compared to last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 27,410, and the valid forecasts were 1366 [36] - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the second half of March, the cumulative crushing volume was 622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.98%, and sugar production was 40.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.31% [40] - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in central and southern Brazil was 48.05%, compared to 48.87% in the same period last year [43] - **Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports**: In March, Brazil's sugar export volume was 1.8512 million tons, a decrease of 868,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Brazil's cumulative exports were 35.1296 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 390 tons [47] - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: Rainfall decreased in Brazil's main production areas, and the production progress was faster than the same period. Precipitation in India changed little [55][56] 3.2 Market Outlook for the Future - **Domestic Market**: This week, the impact of the macro - aspect dissipated, and the market gradually shifted to fundamentals. The industrial inventory started to decline month - on - month in March, indicating that the domestic inventory peak has passed. The drought in Guangxi has intensified, raising concerns about the emergence of new - season sugarcane seedlings. If the drought persists, ratoon cane may also be affected, posing a significant threat to next - year's production. In terms of later supply, an import window has emerged, and it is highly likely that imports will surge in May [59] - **International Market**: The production report of southern Brazil for the second half of March had a negative impact on the market. The sugar - making ratio was 43%, much higher than 33.5% in the same period last year and also higher than market expectations. From the perspective of the sugar - alcohol ratio, sugar production is very attractive, and it is expected that Brazil has added some production capacity. In terms of weather, the decrease in rainfall in Brazil is beneficial for the sugar - cane crushing season. It is expected that the supply data will still show a large year - on - year increase, continuously putting pressure on the market. As of April 15, 2025, India had cumulatively crushed 271 million tons of sugarcane, producing 25.425 million tons of sugar, with 37 sugar mills still in operation. In the same period of the previous season, 74 sugar mills had not finished crushing, having cumulatively crushed 307 million tons of sugarcane and produced 31.165 million tons of sugar. There is a certain probability that this year's production will be less than 26 million tons [59]