该行对国泰海通转为正面看法，并将其列为2026年的首选股份之一，预期公司将凭借领先行业的盈利增 长及估值重评，表现优于同行。该行亦预测其2026年撇除一次性项目盈利将按年增长26%，由市场份额 提升、整合加速、重新杠杆以及成本节约所推动。该行将国泰海通H股及A股评级由"中性"上调至"买 入"，H股目标价由17.3港元升至20.2港元，A股目标价由22.4元升至23.6元。 美银证券发表研究报告指，今年首十一个月，国泰海通H股及A股股价表现逊同行，因市场忧虑海通国 际的资产质素、整合进度，及合并后股本回报率疲弱。不过，该行认为其第三季业绩有助缓解上述忧 虑，释放股本回报率上行及估值重评的潜力。该行预期其附属海通国际第四季的减值拨备有限，而近期 宣布收购印尼券商牌照，更凸显国泰海通对海通国际业务转势的信心。 ...

这种乐观情绪似乎确实蔓延在各大机构之间。富达国际全球多元资产主管奎夫（Matthew Quaife）在接 受第一财经专访时就表示，"当美联储降息周期仍在持续时，市场上的一些风险通常不会发生。无论从 AI领域发展，还是从美股上市企业盈利角度来衡量，明年可能会是一个投资回报率相当高的年份。" 东方汇理资产管理投资研究院主管德芬得（Monica Defend）则告诉第一财经，2026年，全球股市表现 将主要取决于板块分布与风格配置，建议投资者不要局限于单一的AI题材，而应延伸至更广泛的科技 领域，包括能源供应、运算能力和突破物理限制所需的关键材料等主题，同时也需要平衡防御性与周期 性板块。"整体而言，我们对美股持中性立场，尽管美联储政策偏向顺周期，但在市场集中度高企及估 值偏高的情况下，我们倾向于维持均等权重配置策略。"她称，"至于欧洲市场，受益于美元结构性走 弱，包括国防开支、电气化发展以及资产回流美国在内的多项中长期投资主题，以及德国改革顺利推进 带来的欧元区复苏预期，欧洲工业及基建板块有望在2026年下半年迎来新的进场机会。我们看好欧洲金 融、工业、国防及绿色转型相关板块，以及中小型企业。欧洲亦可透过工业与资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs downgraded Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW) to Sell from Neutral, setting a price target of $230 due to expectations of below-average growth compared to large-cap cyclical peers [1] Group 1: Company Performance - ITW's organic revenue and earnings growth are expected to continue lagging behind peers, with organic growth averaging around 2% and earnings per share growth at approximately 5.5% since 2017 [2][3] - The company previously benefited from a significant simplification of its organizational structure, leading to about 800 basis points of margin expansion from 2012 to 2017 [2] Group 2: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that ITW's substantial exposure to consumer end markets may negatively impact its performance, leading to below-average organic and EPS growth over the next two years [3] - The firm is constructive on an overall inflection in industrial activity but remains cautious about ITW's specific market conditions [3] Group 3: Valuation and Price Target - Goldman Sachs sees modest downside risk to earnings estimates and believes the stock's valuation multiple is unlikely to re-rate due to the pace of earnings improvement [4] - The $230 price target is based on a 15.0x multiple applied to projected EBITDA for quarters five through eight, implying a 2027 free cash flow yield of approximately 5% [4]

智通财经APP获悉，怀疑美国企业增长引擎即将熄火的观察者需要注意，油箱里仍有燃料。杰富瑞汇编 的数据显示，卖方分析师传递出的信息是，通过自下而上的目标价汇总分析，标普500指数的盈利增速 预计将在2027年前逐年加快。这将转化为连续三年的两位数盈利扩张，这一罕见现象历史上往往与标普 500指数高于平均水平的回报率相伴而生。 数据显示，预计信息技术、材料和工业板块将在2026年实现最高的同比盈利增长。通常以其防御性特征 著称的必需消费品类股，其利润扩张预计将落后于大盘。 覆盖标普500股票的卖方分析师素以非怀疑论者著称，因此他们的预期可能已经偏高。 分析师迈克尔·卡斯珀表示，"盈利前景确实强劲，但当预期如此之高时，如果业绩未达预测，我们通常 都会看到一些波动。" 美联储降息步伐的不确定性依然存在，而美国总统特朗普关税政策的全面影响尚未在经济中完全显现。 对华尔街的部分人士而言，乐观的理由来自于驱动本轮涨势的小型科技巨头之外，其他领域盈利扩张的 加速。据估计，剔除"七巨头"后的标普500指数成分股在2026年将实现13%的盈利增长，与七大高增长 巨头18%的预期增幅相差不远。对财政和货币刺激政策的乐观情绪也可能有 ...

Group 1 - The company will voluntarily terminate the HART business by the end of 2025 while retaining the HART brand in its product portfolio [1] - Strong demand trends for Milwaukee and Ryobi brands in all core verticals during November support the company's potential for continued success in 2026 [1] - The CEO expressed pride in the ongoing growth of Milwaukee and Ryobi brands, emphasizing that the termination of the HART business enhances the company's ability to achieve mid-term internal profit targets and maintain additional growth potential in the coming years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company will voluntarily terminate the HART business by the end of 2025 while retaining the HART brand in its product portfolio, aiming to enhance profitability and growth potential [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The termination of the HART business is intended to strengthen the company's ability to achieve mid-term internal profit targets and maintain additional growth potential in the coming years [1] - The company continues to see strong demand trends for its Milwaukee and Ryobi brands across all core verticals, which supports its ongoing success into 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The company remains resilient despite rising tariffs and widespread macroeconomic uncertainties, indicating a robust business performance [1] - The CEO expressed pride in the continued growth of the Milwaukee and Ryobi brands, highlighting their importance to the company's overall strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company will voluntarily terminate its HART business by the end of 2025 while retaining the HART brand in its product portfolio, aiming to enhance profitability and growth potential [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The decision to end the HART business is part of the company's ongoing pursuit of profit growth [1] - The company emphasizes the strong demand trends for its Milwaukee and Ryobi brands across all core verticals, which supports its success in 2026 [1] Group 2: Leadership Insights - CEO Steven Philip Richman expressed pride in the continued growth of the Milwaukee and Ryobi brands despite rising tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - The termination of the HART business is expected to strengthen the company's ability to achieve mid-term internal profit targets and maintain additional growth potential in the coming years [1]

今日（12月11日），受美联储降息刺激，港股市场早盘一度高开。然而，后续发展不尽如人意，最终反弹告吹，各类指数小幅回落。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收于25530.51点，下跌10.27点，跌幅0.04%。从成交量看，港股今日全天仅成交1825亿港元，再次出现缩量。 恒生科技指数收报5534.59点，下跌46.51点，跌幅0.83%。 焦点公司方面，中兴通讯（HK00763）突发大跌，截至收盘，股价跌超13%。同时，中兴通讯A股（SZ000063）也以跌停报收。 资金方面，截至收盘，南向资金累计净买入港股超7亿港元。 后市展望： 招商国际认为，在美联储降息、AI投资等因素支持下，预计美国经济明年保持温和增长，维持对美股的战略性看多，但需关注结构性分化和一季度短期风 险。针对明年港股市场展望，该行表示，港股将从估值修复主导，迈向盈利增长主导。估值扩张可能减弱，但流动性宽松，不会形成拖累。2026年呈现盈利 驱动与流动性托底相结合的格局，通过"新供给创造新需求"，成为港股市场新动力。 招商国际还指出，新经济支撑港股走向基本面驱动；内外部政策环境向好；外资和南向资金的新供给增加，转化为对港股配置的新需求。基于股东权益回报 ...

Core Insights - Donaldson Company, Inc. reported strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with sales increasing by 3.9% year over year to $935.4 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $922.9 million [1] - GAAP net earnings rose to $113.9 million (97 cents per share) from $99.0 million (81 cents per share) in the previous year, while adjusted EPS was 94 cents, exceeding the consensus of 92 cents [1] Financial Guidance - The company raised its fiscal 2026 guidance for adjusted EPS to a range of $3.95-$4.11, compared to the previous range of $3.92-$4.08, and above the consensus of $4.01 [2] - Sales growth guidance was revised to 1%-5% year over year, up from the earlier guidance of 1%-3%, with an expected pricing benefit of around one percentage point [2] Market Performance - CEO Tod Carpenter highlighted that the company gained market share in key businesses and increased replacement part sales, achieving a 13% growth in adjusted EPS from a 4% sales growth [3] - Following the earnings announcement, Donaldson shares dipped by 1.8%, trading at $92.16 [3] Analyst Ratings - Baird analyst Richard Eastman maintained an Outperform rating on Donaldson and raised the price target from $96 to $100 [6] - Stifel analyst Adam Farley maintained a Hold rating and increased the price target from $90 to $96 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural bull market, characterized by significant gains in specific sectors while others lag behind, indicating potential investment opportunities in undervalued stocks [10][11][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market opened lower but closed higher, returning to a rating of 4.2 stars [1]. - All market caps, including large, mid, and small caps, saw increases, with small caps outperforming slightly [2]. - Both value and growth styles experienced upward movement [3]. Group 2: Positive Market Drivers - Positive news circulated during the trading day, contributing to market gains [4]. - Insurance institutions lowered risk factors for indices like the CSI 300 and the Low Volatility Dividend 100, allowing for increased allocation to these stocks [5][6]. - This adjustment led to significant increases in sectors such as securities, insurance, and value stocks [7]. Group 3: Structural Bull Market Characteristics - Structural bull markets often see certain categories of stocks rise significantly while others may not reach high valuations [10][12]. - Historical examples include the small-cap growth bull market in 2015 and the large-cap value bull market from 2016 to 2017 [13][14]. Group 4: Current Market Trends - The main drivers of this year's market increase are small-cap and growth styles, with indices like the CSI 2000 and tech-focused boards showing gains exceeding the market average [15]. - Many stocks in these categories have strong fundamentals, with tech companies in A-shares and Hong Kong showing over 30% year-on-year profit growth [18]. - Some sectors, such as consumer and healthcare, have seen moderate profit growth, while others like consumption have experienced declines [21][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Stocks that are currently underperforming may become leaders in future market cycles, emphasizing the need for patience among investors [27][32]. - Even undervalued indices can yield returns over time, as seen with dividend and low-volatility indices that have appreciated by 50-70% since 2018 despite not reaching high valuations [40][41]. Group 6: Valuation Insights - The article provides a valuation table for Hong Kong indices, indicating that the market has already returned to a rating of over 3 stars due to earlier gains compared to A-shares [42]. - The valuation metrics for various indices, including PE ratios and dividend yields, are summarized for investor reference [43].