Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and low - level oscillation. The supply has declined from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and although inventory has been decreasing, it remains at a high level compared to the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1175 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1220 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 45 yuan, with a 7.14% increase compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historically high level. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, and the daily melting volume has been decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply** - Production profit: The profit of the joint - soda process for heavy soda ash in East China is 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China is - 10.10 yuan/ton, which is at a low level compared to the same period in history [15]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.76%, and the weekly production is 70.41 tons, with heavy soda ash production at 38.22 tons, and the production has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [21]. - **Demand** - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.68 tons, and the operating rate of 75.53% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 168.63 tons, including 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history [33]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates in each year [34].

Group 1: Report Core View - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level. The supply has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously decreasing, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually recovering, supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants has declined but is still at a historical high; bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,244 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,202 yuan/ton, and the basis is 42 yuan. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price; bullish [2] - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.627 million tons, an increase of 0.17% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward; bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash market, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short - term [2] 2. Influencing Factors - **Bullish**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3] - **Bearish**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, and the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4] 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous | 1,208 yuan/ton | 1,244 yuan/ton | 36 yuan | | Current | 1,202 yuan/ton | 1,244 yuan/ton | 42 yuan | | Change | - 0.50% | 0.00% | 16.67% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,244 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12] 5. Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of the joint - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 10.10 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [15] - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.76%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and recover. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 704,100 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 382,200 tons, and the production volume has declined from a historical high [18][20] - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [21] 6. Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [24] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 156,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.53% is continuously declining, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [27] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and production has stabilized [30] 7. Fundamentals - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.627 million tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 837,000 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [33] 8. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate. In general, the industry has experienced fluctuations in supply and demand, with some years having a supply surplus and others having a supply shortage [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The supply of soda ash has declined from its high level and gradually stabilized, while the terminal demand has limited improvement. Although the inventory has been continuously decreasing, it still remains at a historically high level. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The short - term outlook for soda ash is expected to be a low - level, weak, and volatile trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The maintenance of alkali plants is gradually being restored. Supply has declined from its high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased but remains at a historically high level. Overall, it is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,199 yuan/ton, and the basis is 36 yuan, indicating that the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. It is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash plants is 162.43 tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to have a low - level, weak, and volatile trend in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. The cold - repair of float glass for heavy - alkali downstream is at a high level, and the daily melting volume has been continuously decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy - quality Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,203 yuan/ton | 1,245 yuan/ton | 42 yuan/ton | | Current Value | 1,199 yuan/ton | 1,235 yuan/ton | 36 yuan/ton | | Change | - 0.33% | - 0.80% | - 14.29% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Production Profit**: The profit of the combined - soda process for heavy - alkali in East China is 105 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy - alkali in North China is - 12.80 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historically low level [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 78.52%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize. The weekly production of soda ash is 68.51 tons, of which 36.98 tons is heavy - quality soda ash, and the production has declined from its historical high [19][21]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual expected production of 100 tons [22]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.73 tons, and the operating rate of 75.73% is continuously declining, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, and the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, with production stabilizing [28][31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash plants is 162.43 tons, of which 80.60 tons is heavy - quality soda ash. The inventory is at a historically high level [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production capacity, output, import, export, and other data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and growth rate changes in different years [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply has declined from its high level, and the terminal demand has limited improvement. Although the inventory has been continuously decreasing, it remains at a high level compared to the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. Short - term, soda ash is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant overhauls are gradually resuming. Supply has declined from its high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the terminal demand is average. The soda ash plant inventory has decreased but is still at a historical high. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,290 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,231 yuan/ton, and the basis is 59 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, which is a bullish factor [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 167.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is a bearish factor [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - demand situation, soda ash is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, which boosts the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. Also, the cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda is at a high level, and the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,254 | 1,300 | 46 | | Current Value | 1,231 | 1,290 | 59 | | Change Rate | - 1.83% | - 0.77% | 28.26% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of the combined ammonia - soda method for heavy soda in East China is 188 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda in North China is - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 67.38 million tons, of which heavy soda ash is 36 million tons, and the production has declined from its historical high [19][21]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 billion tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 billion tons. In 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 billion tons, with an actual production of 600 million tons [23]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly heavy - quality production rate of soda ash is 54.23% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.67 million tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is continuously declining, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [28]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 million tons, and the production has stabilized [31]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 167.68 million tons, of which heavy soda ash is 84.40 million tons, and the inventory is at a historical high compared to the same period [34]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the situation of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of capacity, production, apparent supply, and total demand from 2017 to 2024E [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and volatile trend. The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1284 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1320 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 36 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract has decreased by 0.39%, the price in Shahe has remained unchanged, and the basis has increased by 16.13% [5]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1320 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day [11]. - The profit of the heavy soda ash joint - alkali method in East China is 207.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a low level in the same period [14]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.27%, showing a stable recovery. The weekly output of soda ash is 67.77 tons, with heavy soda ash at 36.90 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the newly added capacity was 640 tons, in 2024 it was 180 tons, and the planned newly added capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual planned production of 60 tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 98.42% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 171.20 tons, including 88.33 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E show the changes in effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates of various indicators in the soda ash industry over the years [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash manufacturers continue with maintenance, but the price - support effect this time is not as expected. The futures market did not react to the maintenance, and a continuous positive feedback was not formed. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the intensity of speculation drivers is questionable. It is recommended to pay attention to the new order transaction prices and the implementation of maintenance. After profiting from closing short positions, one can wait for the price to rise and then participate at high levels [8][9]. - **Glass**: From a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the market sentiment to improve. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in production lines, the digestion progress of low - price futures and spot sources, and the changes in the spot volume and price sentiment in the main production areas. In the short term, the market lacks upward drivers, and for far - month contracts, it is advisable to go long when the sentiment eases [164]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - **Supply**: Total production is 67.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.30 million tons. There are maintenance plans, and new production capacity from Lianyungang Soda Plant is expected to produce trial products this month. Import is 0.07 million tons, and export is 4.2 million tons [8]. - **Demand**: The demand for heavy soda ash is 34.39 million tons, and the apparent demand for light soda ash is 28.09 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06 million tons. The terminal is looking for low - price stocks and has sufficient inventory, with general purchasing willingness [8]. - **Inventory**: Alkali plant inventory is 171.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons. Social inventory is 36.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09 million tons [8]. - **Valuation**: The cost of the ammonia - soda process is 1322 yuan, and the profit is 78 yuan. The cost of the combined - soda process is 1160 yuan, and the profit is 140 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand (Soda Ash) - **Production**: The report shows the monthly production of soda ash from 2020 - 2025 [15]. - **Import and Export**: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, and the export volume is 19.43 million tons. Compared with last month, imports decreased by 0.23 million tons, and exports increased by 0.02 million tons [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread (Soda Ash) - **Futures - Spot Price Comparison**: It presents the futures price index of soda ash and the market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Contract Basis**: It shows the basis of heavy soda ash contracts in the Shahe area, such as the 01, 09, and 05 contracts [29][31][32]. - **Inter - Contract Spread**: It includes the spreads between different soda ash contracts, such as 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 [34][35][36]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Spread**: It shows the spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot prices [38][39][40]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe Region**: The current market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1345 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan, and a year - on - year decrease of 905 yuan [44]. - **Regional Price Comparison**: It provides the prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions, such as North China, South China, and Southwest China [48]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - Stop**: Many soda ash manufacturers are in maintenance or reduced - load operation, and there are also planned maintenance schedules in the future [81]. - **Operating Rate**: The current domestic soda ash operating rate is 80.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.51% [82]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows the cost and profit of the ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes, as well as the prices of related products such as synthetic ammonia [93][95][97]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Heavy Soda Ash Demand**: It is related to the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The daily melting volume of float glass is 156,725 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass is 98,780 tons [8][126]. - **Weekly Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: It presents the weekly consumption and sales - to - production ratio of heavy and light soda ash [133]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: The current soda ash enterprise inventory is 171.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 82.09 million tons [141]. - **Regional Inventory**: It shows the inventory of soda ash in different regions [149][150][152]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 156,725 tons, and the weekly production is 109.71 million tons [162]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 107.10 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.37 million tons. The market demand sentiment is weak [162]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 340.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 million tons [162]. - **Valuation**: The cost and profit of different production lines (natural gas, coal - gas, and petroleum coke) are provided. Most production capacities are in a loss state [162]. 3.9 Monthly Supply and Demand (Glass) - **Production**: The monthly production of flat glass from 2020 - 2025 is presented [169]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of float glass from 2020 - 2025 are shown [171][173]. 3.10 Basis and Spread (Glass) - **Futures - Spot Price Comparison**: It shows the futures price index of glass and the market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area from 2020 - 2025 [178][179]. - **Contract Basis**: It presents the basis of glass contracts in the Shahe area, such as the 01, 09, and 05 contracts [183][184][185]. - **Inter - Contract Spread**: It includes the spreads between different glass contracts, such as 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 [187][188][189]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Spread**: It shows the spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot prices [192][193][194]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - **Float Glass 5mm Regional Price**: The prices of 5mm float glass in different regions, such as Shahe, North China, and East China, are provided [200]. - **Specific Product Prices**: It shows the prices of 5mm float glass products from different manufacturers in different regions [213][215][222].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1325元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1318元/吨，基差为7元，期货贴 水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.13万吨，较前一周增加1.74%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 2、中美关 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-4-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：纯碱检修陆续复产，开工率回升，供给抬升；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量走稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1330元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1364元/吨，基差为-34元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存169.10万吨，较前一周减少1.19%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session decreased from 1358 yuan/ton to 1324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe decreased from 1329 yuan/ton to 1290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93%. The main basis increased from - 29 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.24% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [13]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash is at a low level in the same period of history. The profit of the heavy - soda joint - alkali method in East China is 74.10 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy - soda ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 140.75 yuan/ton [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.50%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash is 75.56 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 41.65 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been large - scale new production capacities in the soda ash industry. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [22]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 97.58% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.85 tons, and the operating rate of 75.66% continues to decline, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output has stabilized [28][31]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 171.13 tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash is 86.44 tons, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of history [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows that the effective capacity, production, apparent supply, and total demand of soda ash have all changed to varying degrees. In 2024E, the effective capacity is 3930 tons, the production is 3650 tons, the apparent supply is 3536 tons, and the total demand is 3379 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 157 tons [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair of float glass in the heavy - soda downstream is at a high level, with a continuous decrease in daily melting volume and weak demand for soda ash. The full - scale escalation of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [4].