近期，美国对委内瑞拉施压不断升级。自2025年12月10日以来，美国已至少三次在委内瑞拉附近海域对 涉委油轮实施拦截行动，并声称没收船上所载原油。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间2025年12月31日，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）发布声明，宣布对四家在委内瑞 拉石油领域运营的公司实施制裁，并将四艘相关油轮列为被冻结资产。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department has identified certain oil tankers as part of a "shadow fleet" serving Venezuela, which funds Maduro's "illicit drug terrorism regime" [1][1]. Group 1: Sanctions - The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has added the oil tankers Nord Star, Della, Rosalind, and Valiant to the sanctions list related to Venezuela [1][1].

上述信息无法得到独立核实，俄方也未就此发布任何消息。 报道称，卢克石油公司与俄罗斯另一家大型石油企业俄罗斯石油公司于10月下旬一同受到美国财政部制 裁。美国政府称，制裁理由是俄罗斯"未对结束乌克兰战争的和平进程作出严肃承诺"。 乌克兰方面称，其已研发出续航里程超过2000公里的作战无人机。 来源 | 参考消息 据德新社12月20日报道，乌克兰武装部队总参谋部20日在社交平台"电报"上发布消息称，乌克兰于夜间 使用无人机袭击并损坏了一艘位于里海海域的俄罗斯军舰。 该海域距离乌克兰海岸1800多公里。乌军总参谋部称，遭袭军舰当时正在一处油气生产平台附近巡逻。 乌方还说，一座据称隶属于俄罗斯卢克石油公司的钻井平台也遭到袭击，并说该设施为俄军提供补给支 持。 ...

此外，为促进两国间安全互利的人员流动，印俄双方还签署了《关于一国公民在另一国境内临时从事劳 务活动的协定》和《关于打击非法移民的合作协定》，建立了劳工流动的政策框架，为印度技术劳务人 员输出提供了渠道。 在此访期间举行的印俄商业论坛上，莫迪提出印俄两国正迈入"创新、共同生产与共同创造"的新时代。 此访无疑将为印俄经贸关系注入新动力，但分析人士指出，来自美国的压力对印俄经贸关系未来走势的 持续影响依然不容小觑。在处理乌克兰危机、印美贸易谈判，以及是否采购俄油等涉美关切的问题上， 印度始终受到来自美方的巨大压力。此次印俄达成的合作协议恐怕不会让美方满意，停购俄油和印美贸 在经贸合作各类项中，双边能源合作既是核心议题，也是美西方关注的敏感议题。此访期间，莫迪明确 表示，能源合作是印俄伙伴关系的重要基石，将印俄经济伙伴关系提升到新的高度，是两国领导人的共 同优先事项。普京则强调，俄是"可靠的石油、天然气、煤炭以及发展印度能源所需一切资源的供应 国"，将继续"不间断"地向印度供应能源。 数据显示，2000财年至2021财年，俄油在印度石油进口量中的占比只有2%左右，全年进口量不到2000 万桶。2022年乌克兰危机爆发 ...

2025年7月中旬，特朗普扔出一句狠话：给俄罗斯50天，赶紧跟乌克兰谈停，不谈就对所有俄罗斯商品收100%关税，顺带把继续买俄油的国家全拉进次级制 裁名单。 这话一出，莫斯科很多人第一反应是懵——前几个月特朗普还放风说要跟普京好好聊聊，怎么说翻脸就翻脸？ 很多人这时候才真正明白，美国要的从来不是俄罗斯选边站队，而是俄罗斯彻底跪下、碎掉、再也爬不起来。牺牲中国换美国一笑？做梦。 后来期限从50天缩到10天，再到8月直接对印度开刀，加征25%关税，把印度输美商品总税率干到50%，理由就是"你们买俄油买得太欢了"。 印度一天210万桶，中国一天180万桶，土耳其90万桶，这些数字白宫心里门儿清。特朗普这边边打边说：这不是冲着谁去，就是要让俄罗斯的钱袋子彻底瘪 掉。 俄罗斯国内本来还有一小撮人抱着幻想，觉得只要在对华能源供应上做点让步，暂停几单大合同，或者在联合国投票时别跟中国绑那么死，美国就能松口， 给条活路。 2024年底到2025年初，这种声音在某些智库和杜马走廊里传得挺响，甚至有人私下算过账：把对华石油出口砍个三成，换美国取消几项银行制裁，值不值？ 特朗普用行动给了最直接的回答：不值，一点都不值。 8月6日白 ...

Core Insights - The global energy market is undergoing a significant structural adjustment, with Russia facing unprecedented challenges as a former energy giant [1] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market by 2025, potentially rising to 4 million barrels per day by 2026, which is pressuring Russia's pricing power [1] - Russia's oil discount has widened to $23.5 per barrel, the highest since March 2023, while U.S. crude exports have rebounded to summer 2024 levels [1] - Russia's fiscal revenue heavily relies on energy exports, accounting for 55%, but budget revenues have dropped by 20% year-on-year in the first ten months of this year due to falling oil prices [1] Industry Challenges - The congestion at Novorossiysk port reflects the difficulties in Russian energy exports, with nearly one-third of arriving oil tankers unable to offload their cargo due to sanctions, leading to over 30 million barrels in floating storage [3] - The rising extraction costs due to Western technology sanctions are expected to reduce upstream investment in Russia by 4% by 2025, with production capacity from aging oil fields declining over 6% [1] - A report predicts that if current conditions persist, Russia's oil production capacity could decline by 10% by 2030, with its share in the global energy supply chain shrinking from 12% to below 8% [1] Strategic Responses - In response to these challenges, Russia is attempting to persuade countries like India to settle oil trades in yuan to address the issue of ruble convertibility [5] - Russia is coordinating with OPEC allies to adjust production levels, with Saudi Arabia already cutting daily output by 1 million barrels to stabilize the market [5] - Kazakhstan has increased its oil exports to Europe by 18% in November, filling the market gap left by Russian oil, while Uzbekistan is signing energy swap agreements to reduce reliance on Russian electricity [5] Market Dynamics - India, previously a major buyer of Russian oil, has shifted to Middle Eastern suppliers to avoid sanctions, resulting in a 22% month-on-month increase in imports from the Middle East in November [7] - In contrast, China has increased its purchases from Russia, with oil exports to China doubling year-on-year in August, and 95% of trade between China and Russia is now settled in local currencies, effectively bypassing the dollar system [7]

Core Points - The meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar is significant as it prepares for President Putin's upcoming visit to India in early December, marking his first visit since the Ukraine conflict began [1][3] - The summit is expected to face external pressures, particularly from the U.S., which has been attempting to dissuade India from purchasing Russian oil [3][5] - Both Russia and India have reaffirmed their strategic partnership despite U.S. interventions, with plans to enhance trade and economic relations [3][4] Group 1: Diplomatic Engagements - Jaishankar's visit to Moscow serves dual purposes: attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting and preparing for the upcoming India-Russia summit [1][3] - The Kremlin has indicated that preparations for Putin's visit are underway, with expectations of fruitful discussions on trade and economic cooperation [3][4] - The upcoming "Russia-India Forum" scheduled for December 4-5, 2025, in New Delhi will focus on expanding industrial cooperation and increasing Indian products in the Russian market [4] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - The summit is anticipated to result in an agreement on labor mobility, significantly increasing the number of Indian citizens working in Russia [5][6] - Discussions will include enhancing Russian imports of Indian pharmaceuticals and labor resources, as well as boosting tourism and people-to-people exchanges [4][5] - India is negotiating an immigration agreement to protect the rights of Indian workers in Russia, with a notable increase in the number of Indian students and workers expected to move to Russia in the coming years [13] Group 3: External Pressures and Responses - The U.S. has imposed tariffs and sanctions on Indian imports of Russian oil, creating challenges for Indian refiners and prompting them to seek alternative sources [6][9] - The potential losses for India if it complies with U.S. sanctions could be substantial, estimated between $9 billion to $10 billion [9] - Despite U.S. pressures, India continues to pursue its bilateral relationship with Russia, as evidenced by the establishment of new consulates and ongoing diplomatic engagements [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Russian shareholders of the Serbian Oil Company (NIS) are willing to transfer control of the company to a third party due to U.S. sanctions, with the Serbian government supporting this request [3]. Group 1 - On November 11, Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy, Andjelkovic, announced the willingness of Russian shareholders to hand over control of NIS to a third party [3]. - The Russian shareholders have submitted a request to the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to postpone the effective date of sanctions while negotiating with a third party [3]. - NIS was placed on the U.S. sanctions list earlier this year due to "secondary risks" associated with two Russian oil and gas companies, with the U.S. having postponed the effective date of sanctions eight times since then [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Russian shareholders of the Serbian Oil Company (NIS), which is under U.S. sanctions, are willing to transfer control of the company to a third party, with the support of the Serbian government [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The Russian shareholders have submitted a request to the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to postpone the effective date of sanctions during negotiations with a third party [1] - The Serbian government supports the request made by the Russian shareholders [1] Group 2: Sanctions Background - NIS was placed on the U.S. sanctions list earlier this year due to "secondary risks" associated with two Russian oil and gas companies [1] - The U.S. has postponed the effective date of sanctions on NIS eight times to date [1] - The ownership structure of NIS has changed multiple times during the period of sanctions postponement [1]

Group 1 - Ukraine's national electricity company has implemented emergency power outages in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions due to damage from Russian shelling, suspending previously announced hourly power outage schedules until the emergency measures are lifted [1] - The Ukrainian armed forces conducted precision strikes on key Russian military facilities, including the Saratov oil refinery and Feodosia maritime oil terminal, aiming to weaken Russia's military economic potential [2] - The Serbian oil company (NIS) is facing U.S. sanctions, and Russian shareholders are willing to transfer control of the company to a third party, with the Serbian government supporting this request to delay the sanctions' effective date [3]