交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润有所好转。供需端，农 膜需求处于弱势，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6640（-10）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差30，升贴水比例0.5%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.7万吨（-0.4），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDP ...

聚烯烃日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润有所好转，俄乌和平协 议短期受挫，油价震荡偏强。供需端，农膜需求处于弱势，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所 转好。当前LL交割品现货价6650（-30），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差7，升贴水比例0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.7万吨（-0.4），中 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-3 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6820（+30）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-11，升贴水比例-0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.1万吨（-5.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides daily observations on the plastic L and PP markets, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions show fluctuations in contract prices and spot market prices for both L and PP. Important news covers various corporate developments, such as production expansions, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships. Logical analyses consider multiple factors like domestic and international economic indicators, production and inventory data, and their impacts on the polyolefin market. Trading strategies include suggestions on holding, buying, or selling L and PP contracts, as well as options for arbitrage and options trading [1][2][5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Contract prices fluctuated, with some days showing increases and others decreases. LLDPE market prices also varied, with fluctuations in different regions and ranges from 10 - 110 yuan/ton. Market sentiment was often affected by factors such as futures trends, factory price adjustments, and downstream demand. For example, on 25 - 12 - 03, L2601 contract closed at 6817 points, down 14 points or - 0.20%, and LLDPE market prices partially declined [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Contract prices also had ups and downs. PP market prices showed narrow - range fluctuations, with some days having slight increases or decreases. The market was influenced by factors like futures performance, factory price changes, and downstream procurement behavior. For instance, on 25 - 12 - 03, PP2601 contract closed at 6398 points, down 12 points or - 0.19%, and the domestic PP market prices had a narrow - range fluctuation [1]. Important News - **Corporate Developments**: Many companies announced significant events, such as齐翔腾达's plan to extend its industrial chain in the MMA and PMMA fields,科思创's acquisition by XRG, and万华绿能's establishment in the energy sector. These events could potentially impact the supply and demand of related products in the market [1][21][40]. - **Industry - wide Information**: Information about the global and domestic chemical industries was also reported, including the performance of the基础化工板块, the development of the global特种建筑化学品 market, and the status of China's chemical industry in terms of production and technology [37][18][60]. Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: Various economic indicators were considered, such as domestic automobile sales, manufacturing PMI, global stock market value, and currency - related indices. These indicators had different impacts on the polyolefin market, either positive or negative. For example, a decline in domestic automobile sales index was negative for polyolefin prices [2]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: Data on PE and PP production capacity utilization, registered warehouse receipts, and inventory levels were analyzed. Increases or decreases in production capacity utilization and inventory changes could affect market supply and demand relationships. For instance, an increase in PE production capacity utilization might lead to an increase in supply [10]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggestions included holding long or short positions in L and PP contracts, with specific stop - loss points recommended. For example, on some days, it was recommended to hold long positions in L主力 01 contract and set stop - loss at a certain point [2]. - **Arbitrage**: There were also suggestions for arbitrage trading, such as holding positions in specific contract combinations and setting stop - loss levels [2]. - **Options Trading**: In most cases, the report recommended a wait - and - see approach for options trading [2].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6790（+20）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-13，升贴水比例-0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.1万吨（-5.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：LL ...

徐绍祖（联系人） 投产错配叠加季节性， LL1-5反套或将持续 聚烯烃周报 2025/11/29 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场情绪转暖，国内能化品种回归各自基本面，涨跌各现。 估值：聚乙烯周度跌幅（期货＞成本＞现货），聚丙烯周度跌幅（期货＞现货＞成本）。 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-1.33%，Brent原油下跌-0.60%，煤价下跌-1.80%，甲醇上涨4.49%，乙烯上涨0.23%，丙烯上涨2.27%，丙 烷上涨0.88%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率84.12%，环比上涨0.42%，同比去年上涨3.44%，较5年同期下降-5.17%。PP产能利用率77.97%，环比上涨 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with an overall bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, a decline in downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory. The PP market is also expected to fluctuate, with a bearish fundamental outlook as well [4][6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China - US leaders' meeting, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. The demand for agricultural films has declined, and other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6770 (-40), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 50.1 million tons (-5.3), indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate, with an oversupply in fundamentals, a decline in downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing of China - US relations. Bearish factors include weaker - than - expected demand and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the PMI declined in October, and the oil market situation changed after the China - US meeting. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6350 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 55, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.9%, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 54.6 million tons (-4.8), considered neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate, with an oversupply in fundamentals, average downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors include oil price rebound and China - US relations easing, while bearish factors include weak demand and new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6770 (-40), the price of the 01 contract is 6699 (-8), the basis is 71 (-32), the import price in US dollars is 770 (0), the import - converted price is 6712 (-3), and the import spread is 58 (-37). The PE comprehensive factory inventory is 50.1 million tons (-5.3), and the social inventory is 47.1 million tons (-15) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6350 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6295 (30), the basis is 55 (-30), the import price in US dollars is 755 (0), the import - converted price is 6584 (-3), and the import spread is - 234 (3). The PP comprehensive factory inventory is 54.6 million tons (-4.8), and the social inventory is 30.8 million tons (-13) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2023, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4319.5 million tons [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with a gradual decrease in import dependence. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4906 million tons [15]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trade sideways today due to an oversupply in the fundamentals, a decline in downstream demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4] - PP is also expected to trade sideways today, with an oversupply in the fundamentals, average downstream demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US summit, OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, causing oil prices to fall. Agricultural film demand declined, while other films were mainly for essential needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,840 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: PE's comprehensive inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract increased, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade sideways [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may cause oil prices to rebound, and the China-US summit reached a phased easing [5] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is bearish. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,380 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 8, with a premium ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: PP's comprehensive inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract decreased, but it is still bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to trade sideways [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, new sanctions on Russian oil and a phased easing in China-US relations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, weaker demand year-on-year and many new production launches in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an increasing trend, and the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides daily observations and analyses of the plastic (L) and polypropylene (PP) markets from October 27 to November 25, 2025, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions show fluctuations in contract prices and market prices of L and PP, influenced by factors such as futures trends, production enterprise price adjustments, and downstream demand. Important news covers various aspects such as corporate establishment, strategic cooperation, and industry development. Logical analyses consider factors like production volume, economic indicators, and industry indices to assess impacts on the market. Trading strategies suggest different actions for L and PP contracts, including holding, trying long or short positions, and setting stop - loss points [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Contract prices fluctuated, with daily changes ranging from - 0.67% to + 0.82%. Market prices showed partial increases, decreases, or mixed trends, with price changes in different regions ranging from 10 - 110 yuan/ton. Downstream demand was generally weak, with factories showing low procurement enthusiasm and mostly making small - quantity or on - demand purchases [1][4][7]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Contract prices also fluctuated, with daily changes from - 0.82% to + 0.34%. The market was characterized by narrow fluctuations, weak trends, or partial price adjustments. Downstream demand was cautious, with low inventory - building willingness and a preference for low - price sources [1][4][7]. Important News - **Corporate Events**: Include the establishment of new companies such as Wan华绿能 (东明) 清洁能源有限公司, strategic cooperation like the one between 中化塑料 and 陶氏化学, and corporate acquisitions such as 中国浙江艾昕尔丝袜公司's acquisition of 西班牙百年尼龙企业 Nylstar [7][16][23]. - **Industry Developments**: Involve the release of industry rankings, the implementation of new projects like 中国石油广西石化公司's 120 -万吨/年乙烯装置, and the issuance of industry - related policies such as 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 (2025—2026 年)》[54][37][62]. - **Economic Data**: Include industrial production and sales data, PMI data, and logistics industry indices, which reflect the overall economic situation and industry trends [34][31][58]. Logical Analyses - **Supply - side Factors**: Consider factors such as domestic and international production volume changes of polypropylene, PE and PP capacity utilization rates, and inventory changes of relevant products [8][14][31]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Analyze factors like downstream industry demand (e.g., automotive, home appliance), economic policy uncertainty, and industry indices (e.g., PMI, logistics industry index) [2][34][31]. - **Other Factors**: Include stock index trends, freight index changes, and the relationship between different economic indicators [17][38][11]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggest different strategies for L and PP contracts, including holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach, and setting corresponding stop - loss points [2][5][8]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][5][8]. - **Options Trading**: Usually, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][5][8].