聚烯烃早报 2026-1-16 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，12月份，官方12月制造业PMI为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，时隔 8个月重回扩张区间。OPEC+1月4日发表声明， 8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产 量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。近日伊朗政局动荡，引发市场对伊朗原油供应中断的 担忧，推动国际油价反弹。供需端，农膜方面，棚膜需求回落，地膜需求抬头，包装膜企业订单 及开工有所提升。当前LL交割品现货价6930（+80），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差145，升贴水比例2.1%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存38万吨（-4.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上 ...

• LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，12月份，官方12月制造业PMI为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，时隔 8个月重回扩张区间。OPEC+1月4日发表声明， 8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产 量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。近日伊朗政局动荡，引发市场对伊朗原油供应中断的 担忧，推动国际油价反弹。供需端，农膜方面，棚膜需求回落，地膜需求抬头，包装膜企业订单 及开工有所提升。当前LL交割品现货价6800（+100），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差34，升贴水比例0.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存42.5万吨（+2.6），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡反弹，OPEC一季度暂停增产，地缘因素推动油价反弹，产业 库存中性，下游需求短期回升，预计PE今日走势震荡 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-1-14 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Production profits are poor, but the cost side provides support. The output is significantly higher than the same period last year, leading to significant pressure on the supply side. The overall downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level, and due to the seasonal off - peak season, demand remains weak. Technically, with positive macro - sentiment, the polyolefin prices may continue to rise [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Overview - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 400,000 tons and may increase. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 450,000 tons and may decrease as spot offers rise and some downstream rigid purchases occur [9]. - **Supply**: Newly planned maintenance of plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical, along with the non - restart of previously maintained plants, is expected to reduce the next - period total polyethylene output to 682,100 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the current period. The estimated total polypropylene output is 774,000 tons, showing a narrow decrease and continuing the downward trend [9]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly increased, with some rigid consumption in food composite films, daily chemical packaging bags, and barrier films. After the festival, the market consumes with orders, and there may be an increase in the operating rate in some fields in the middle of the month considering downstream inventory preparation. For polypropylene products, orders in various industries have decreased, causing the average industry operating rate to decline [9]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The losses of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP have narrowed, while the loss of PDH - based PP remains large, and the cost side provides support [9]. 3.2 Views and Strategies - **View**: The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With positive macro - sentiment, the price center of polyolefins may continue to move up [11]. - **Futures and Options Strategies**: Go long with a light position and buy call options [11]. 3.3 PP Single - side Strategy - **Strategy**: Short PP. - **Price and Trend**: The price has rebounded from the bottom, reaching 6,484 as of January 8th. - **Logic**: The new PP production capacity is large, and downstream demand is weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see for now [14]. 3.4 Supply - side - **PE Output**: There are data on PE weekly output, weekly operating rate, and maintenance loss volume. Plastic production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 12%. In 2025, the new capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity to be put into operation is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%, but the actual production volume may be about half considering the poor production profits [70][91][99]. - **PP Output**: There are data on PP weekly output, weekly operating rate, and maintenance loss volume. PP production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2025, China's PP realized production capacity was about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase from 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity to be put into operation is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%, and the actual production volume may be about half considering the poor production profits [77][97][101]. - **Imports**: There are data on PE and PP import volumes [84]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Downstream Operating Rates**: There are data on the operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries, including sub - industries such as agricultural film, packaging film, plastic weaving, and BOPP [106]. - **Exports**: There are data on PE and PP export volumes [127]. - **Plastic Products**: There are data on plastic product output, rubber and plastic products industry inventory, automobile and home appliance production year - on - year, home appliance export volume, domestic automobile production, and Chinese automobile exports [129].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: January 8, 2026 - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with an overall neutral fundamental situation, oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, and weak downstream demand [4]. - The PP market is expected to fluctuate today, with an overall neutral fundamental situation, oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, weak downstream demand, and an increasing PDH maintenance rate [7]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The impact of the US action in Venezuela on domestic crude oil and chemical products is expected to be limited. The demand for agricultural films is continuously weak, and packaging film enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6460 (+40), with an overall neutral fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -182, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 39.8 tons (-9.3), showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, and weak downstream demand [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The impact of the US action in Venezuela on domestic crude oil and chemical products is expected to be limited. The PDH maintenance rate has begun to increase. The demand for plastic weaving is mainly based on rigid demand, and the overall demand for pipes has declined. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6350 (+20), with an overall neutral fundamental situation [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -136, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.7%, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 49.1 tons (-4.3), showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound today, with oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, weak downstream demand, and an increasing PDH maintenance rate [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-1-6 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，12月份，官方12月制造业PMI为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，时隔 8个月重回扩张区间。OPEC+1月4日发表声明， 8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产 量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。1月3日 美军抓捕马杜罗，美国宣布"临时管理"并 计划引入本国油企修复委内瑞拉石油基础设施，预计国内原油化工品影响有限。供需端，农膜需 求持续偏弱，包装膜企业按需采购为主。当前LL交割品现货价6390（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-59，升贴水比例-0.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存39.8 ...

需求延续弱势，压制反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-31 市场分析 PE方面，供应端维持高位，独山子石化2线与湛江巴斯夫临时检修，短期新增计划检修量有限，从现有检修计划看 明年一季度总体检修量级亦不高，供应宽松压力持续，厂家让利降库为主；需求端，PE下游进入需求淡季，下游 整体开工继续下滑，农膜开工进一步明显下滑，地膜需求驱动仍有限，后期农膜需求预期继续逐步转弱；包装膜 开工亦环比小幅下滑，刚性采购为主，需求支撑减弱。供增需弱格局使得社会库存延续累积，且LL和LD绝对社会 库存水平仍偏高，市场情绪谨慎下PE去库压力预期仍偏大。成本端国际油价近期反弹走高，成本面支撑有所回升。 总体来看需求淡季来临叠加供应端持续宽松，企业去库压力持续存在，现货端延续疲弱，基差偏弱，供需矛盾持 续压制价格。 PP方面，短期供需基本面变量有限，供应端，新增东华能源（宁波）检修，临时检修偏多使得PP开工环比下滑， 金能三线45万吨计划检修，1月存部分PDH装置预期检修，现货供应压力预期阶段性小幅缓解，供应端减量仍需等 待兑现；需求端，下游订单跟进有限，整体下游开工稳中下滑，仅BOPP开工维稳，形成一定需求支 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳。供需端，农膜需 求收缩订单偏弱，包装膜需求一般订单回落。当前LL交割品现货价6330（+80），基本面整体偏 空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-123，升贴水比例-1.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.1万吨（-3.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面偏弱，基本面供过于求，产业库存中性，下游需求转淡，预计PE 今日走势震荡 交易 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-29 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳。供需端，农膜需 求收缩订单偏弱，包装膜需求一般订单回落。当前LL交割品现货价6250（-70），基本面整体偏 空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-215，升贴水比例-3.3%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.1万吨（-3.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳。供需端，农膜需 求逐渐走弱，旺季结束包装膜订单回落。当前LL交割品现货价6220（-10），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-188，升贴水比例-2.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.1万吨（-3.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面偏弱，基本面供过于求，产业库存中性，下游需求转淡，预计PE 今日走势震荡 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、成本支撑 • 利空 • 1、下游需求同比偏弱 • 2、四季度新增投产多 • 主要逻辑：供过于求，国内宏观政策 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳。供需端，农膜需 求逐渐走弱，旺季结束包装膜订单回落。当前LL交割品现货价6380（-60），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差60，升贴水比例0.9%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存52.3万吨（+1.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，翻空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面偏弱，基本面供过于求，产业库存中性，下游 ...