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大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250711
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 02:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall situation of LLDPE and PP is bearish, with cost support and new capacity release and weak demand as the main factors. The market is expected to fluctuate today due to the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [4][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. It is the off - season for agricultural films, and downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity production. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7280 (+30), with an overall bearish fundamental situation [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 47, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.7%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (+54,000), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC has increased production for the fourth consecutive month. It is the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and there is still production pressure. The industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [6] - **Negative Factors**: New capacity release and weak demand [6] - **Main Logic**: Game between cost and demand, tariff policy [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. It is the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7200 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental situation [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 88, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.2%, which is bullish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 581,000 tons (+11,000), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC has increased production for the fourth consecutive month. The downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [9] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [9] - **Main Logic**: Game between cost and demand, tariff policy [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7280 (+30), the 09 - contract price is 7329 (+51), the basis is - 49 (-21), the warehouse receipt is 5831 (0), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 554,000 tons (+54,000), and the PE social inventory is 518,000 tons (+10,000) [10] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7200 (0), the 09 - contract price is 7112 (+34), the basis is 88 (-34), the warehouse receipt is 8284 (+933), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 581,000 tons (+11,000), and the PP social inventory is 261,000 tons (+9,000) [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with the production capacity growth rate reaching 12.4% in 2024. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally increased, with the production capacity growth rate reaching 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250710
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:34
Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: July 10, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the market expected to fluctuate today. The main factors include OPEC's continuous production increase, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and the pressure of new capacity investment. However, there is also cost support, creating a situation of cost - demand game. [4][7] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. The downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity investment. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7250 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are bearish. [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 28, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.4%, considered neutral. [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (+54,000 tons), which is bearish. [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, considered neutral. [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish. [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. Considering OPEC's production increase, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and new capacity investment pressure, the PE market is expected to fluctuate today. [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new capacity investment and weak demand are bearish factors. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies. [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic indicators show a mixed situation. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with weak demand in pipes, plastic weaving, etc. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7200 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are bearish. [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 122, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, considered bullish. [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 581,000 tons (+11,000 tons), considered neutral. [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, considered neutral. [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. Given OPEC's production increase, weak downstream demand, and new capacity investment pressure, the PP market is expected to fluctuate today. [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak demand and new capacity investment are bearish factors. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies. [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene showed an overall upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5%. [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0%. [17]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250709
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 02:38
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-7-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,6 月PMI为 49.7%,较上月上升 0.2 个百分点,连续三个月位于收缩 区间,6 月财新PMI 为 50.4,高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点,与 4 月持平,重回临界点以上。7月5 日opec发增产声明,连续第四个月增产。供需端,农膜淡季,包装膜下游持续偏弱,多数企业降 负荷,下游需求整体弱势,后续新产能投产压力仍存。近期中美交流有缓和迹象,关注谈判形势。 当前LL交割品现货价7250(-20),基本面整体偏空; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2509合约基差5,升贴水比例0.1%,中性; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存50万吨(-0.5),中性; • 4. 盘面 ...
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250708
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:28
大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,6 月PMI为 49.7%,较上月上升 0.2 个百分点,连续三个月位于收缩 区间,6 月财新PMI 为 50.4,高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点,与 4 月持平,重回临界点以上。7月5 日opec发增产声明,连续第四个月增产。供需端,农膜淡季,包装膜下游持续偏弱,多数企业降 负荷,下游需求整体弱势,后续新产能投产压力仍存。近期中美交流有缓和迹象,关注谈判形势。 当前LL交割品现货价7270(-60),基本面整体偏空; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2509合约基差23,升贴水比例0.3%,中性; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存50万吨(-0.5),中性; • 4. 盘面: LLDPE主力合约20日 ...
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250703
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 03:22
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-7-3 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,5月官方PMI为 49.5%,较4月回升0.5,财新PMI48.3,较4月下降2.1, 为去年10月以来首次收缩。6月24日,美国宣布伊朗以色列达成停火协议,原油回落。供需端, 农膜淡季,包装膜下游持续偏弱,多数企业降负荷,下游需求整体弱势,后续新产能投产压力仍 存。当前LL交割品现货价7230(-70),基本面整体偏空; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2509合约基差-58,升贴水比例-0.8%,偏空; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存50万吨(-0.5),中性; • 4. 盘面: LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上,收盘价位于20日线上,偏多; • 5. 主力持仓:LL ...
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250701
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:23
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-7-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,5月官方PMI为 49.5%,较4月回升0.5,财新PMI48.3,较4月下降2.1, 为去年10月以来首次收缩。6月24日,美国宣布伊朗以色列达成停火协议,原油回落。供需端, 农膜淡季,包装膜下游持续偏弱,多数企业降负荷,下游需求整体弱势,后续新产能投产压力仍 存。当前LL交割品现货价7320(-0),基本面整体偏空; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2509合约基差59,升贴水比例0.8%,偏多; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存50.5万吨(-5.0),中性; • 4. 盘面: LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上,收盘价位于20日线上,偏多; • 5. 主力持仓:LLD ...
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250630
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 02:48
聚烯烃早报 2025-6-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,5月官方PMI为 49.5%,较4月回升0.5,财新PMI48.3,较4月下降2.1, 为去年10月以来首次收缩。6月24日,美国宣布伊朗以色列达成停火协议,原油回落。供需端, 农膜淡季,包装膜下游持续偏弱,多数企业降负荷,下游需求整体弱势,后续新产能投产压力仍 存。当前LL交割品现货价7320(-0),基本面整体偏空; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2509合约基差18,升贴水比例0.2%,中性; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存50.5万吨(-5.0),中性; • 4. 盘面: LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上,收盘价位于20日线上,偏多; • 5. 主力持仓:LL ...
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250627
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 09:07
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,5月官方PMI为 49.5%,较4月回升0.5,财新PMI48.3,较4月下降2.1, 为去年10月以来首次收缩。6月24日,美国宣布伊朗以色列达成停火协议,原油立刻回落。供需 端,农膜淡季,包装膜需求转淡,多数企业降负荷,下游需求整体弱势,后续新产能投产压力仍 存。当前LL交割品现货价7320(-60),基本面整体中性; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2509合约基差20,升贴水比例0.3%,中性; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存50.5万吨(-5.0),中性; • 4. 盘面: LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上,收盘价位于20日线上,偏多; • 5. 主力持仓:LLDPE主力持仓净空,增空,偏空 ...
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250626
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 02:06
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,5月官方PMI为 49.5%,较4月回升0.5,财新PMI48.3,较4月下降2.1, 为去年10月以来首次收缩。6月24日,美国宣布伊朗以色列达成停火协议,原油立刻回落。供需 端,农膜淡季,包装膜需求转淡,多数企业降负荷,下游需求整体弱势,后续新产能投产压力仍 存。当前LL交割品现货价7380(-20),基本面整体中性; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2509合约基差109,升贴水比例1.5%,偏多; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存50.5万吨(-6.4),中性; • 4. 盘面: LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上,收盘价位于20日线上,偏多; • 5. 主力持仓: ...
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250625
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:16
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,5月官方PMI为 49.5%,较4月回升0.5,财新PMI48.3,较4月下降2.1, 为去年10月以来首次收缩。6月24日,美国宣布伊朗以色列达成停火协议,原油立刻回落。供需 端,农膜淡季,包装膜需求转淡,多数企业降负荷,下游需求整体弱势,后续新产能投产压力仍 存。当前LL交割品现货价7400(-100),基本面整体中性; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2509合约基差150,升贴水比例2.1%,偏多; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存55.6万吨(-1.3),中性; • 4. 盘面: LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上,收盘价位于20日线上,偏多; • 5. 主力持仓:LLDPE主力持仓净空,增空,偏空; • 6. 预期:塑料主力合约盘面反弹,中东停火原油回落,农膜需求淡季,下游需求弱,投产压 力仍存,产业库存中性,预计PE今日 ...