商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | 市场表现：周一贵金属价格震荡，市场逐步消化鲍威尔讲话。 | | | | | | | 金 | | 基本面：特朗普政府据称考虑因数字服务法制裁欧盟官员。国内黄金 ETF | 资金小幅流出，COMEX | | | 黄金库存 | | | 属 | 1199 | 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | 吨；上期所白银库存 | | | 1113 | | | 吨，增加 | 4 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | 白银库存 | 15823 | 吨，增加 7 | | 吨；伦 | | | 敦 7 | 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 | 吨左右。全球最大白银 | | etf--iShares | | 持有 | | | 量为 | 15288 吨，增加 11 吨。 | | | | | | | | | 交易策略： ...

2025年08月25日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周五贵金属大幅反弹，鲍威尔讲话引发市场巨震。 | | | | | | 金 | 基本面：鲍威尔央行年会上讲话，称劳动力市场指标稳定使联储能谨慎考虑政策调整，基准前景和风险平衡 | | | | | | 属 | 变化可能需要联储调整政策立场；不过周末美联储官员古尔比斯讲话重提关注通胀问题。国内黄金 | | 资金 | ETF | | | | 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1199 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，增加 1 吨；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | | | | | | 吨；上期所白银库存 1109 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | | | | 白银库 | | | 存 15816 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全 | | | | | | | 球最大白银 etf- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information was provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, industrial products, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors such as supply - demand dynamics, seasonal patterns, and policy changes when making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly. Supply capacity increased, and demand showed signs of improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price increased. Supply capacity continued to rise, and there was an oversupply pressure. It is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The price increased. Supply increased significantly, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Lead**: The price decreased. Supply and demand were both weak, with a slight inventory build - up. Interval trading is suggested [2]. Industrial Products - **Silicon**: The price declined. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price dropped sharply. Supply and demand are expected to be tight from August to October. Due to large - scale outflow of long - speculating funds, the price is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price rose slightly. Supply and demand are balanced with structural differentiation. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see on the single - side [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price increased. Supply and demand are moderately strong with a weakening margin. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increased. Supply and demand are relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price changed little. Supply may shrink in the short - term and increase in the long - term. Demand has differences. The domestic price is expected to follow the international cost - end and fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Corn**: The price fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuated strongly. International production has differences, and domestic demand showed signs of recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The price declined. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand improved. The short - term trading is difficult, and the long - term outlook is tight [7]. - **Eggs**: The price fluctuated. Supply was sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Hogs**: The price was weak. Supply was sufficient, and demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand improved. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PTA**: The price was stable. PX supply is at a high level, and PTA supply is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on PX and short PTA processing fees or far - month contracts [8][9]. - **Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand was for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to buy on dips after a pull - back [9]. - **PP**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The price was stable. Supply and demand were in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9][10].

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for August 21, 2025, covering multiple commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Not provided in the report Summary by Commodity Category Thermal Coal - The report presents the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of thermal coal from August 14 to 20, 2025. The basis values are -106.4, -103.4, -100.4, -99.4, -97.4 for respective dates, while all spreads are 0.0 [2] Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on basis, price ratios, and related indicators of energy commodities such as fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from August 14 to 20, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 20 was 136.18 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - The basis, spreads, and cross - commodity spreads of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP, etc.) are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 20 was -1075 yuan/ton [9][11] Black Metals - The report shows the cross - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) and cross - commodity spreads (such as screw/ore, screw/coke) of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. The basis data from August 14 to 20, 2025 are also presented [20][21] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from August 14 to 20, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on August 20 was 30 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss of non - ferrous metals in the London market on August 20, 2025 are provided [35] Agricultural Products - The basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - commodity spreads of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) are presented. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on August 20 was 4284.54 yuan/ton [39] Stock Index Futures - The basis and cross - period spreads of stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 20 was 1.40 [51][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, guiding investors to make decisions based on different market conditions. Summary by Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Tuesday, precious metals declined. London gold dropped 0.52% to $3315 per ounce. The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. Due to rumors of canceling export tax - rebates for photovoltaic modules, silver exports may increase, and it is advised to wait and see [1]. - **Silver**: The iShares silver ETF holdings decreased by 17 tons to 15339 tons. The inventory of silver in some regions changed, and it is recommended to wait and see due to potential export demand increase [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated weakly. Due to concerns about Powell's hawkish speech and overall market risk - appetite decline, the short - term driving factors are unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum contract price fell. With supply increasing and demand slightly improving as the peak season approaches, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina contract price declined. With increasing production capacity and surplus pressure, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc 2509 contract price dropped. Supply increased significantly, and it is in the consumption off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [3]. - **Lead**: The lead 2509 contract price rose slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to trade within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price oscillated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand marginally improved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to Xinjiang's production plan [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate contract price fell. Supply may be in short - supply from August to October, and demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon price oscillated. The supply may increase, and the demand is affected by the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to policy implementation [4]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillated strongly. Considering supply and demand and inventory, it is recommended to trade with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar contract price declined. The building material inventory increased, and the supply - demand is neutral - weak. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore contract price decreased. The supply and demand are neutral - strong but marginally weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal contract price dropped. The supply is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5][6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price continued to fall. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the domestic soybean market is affected by international factors. The short - term international market oscillates, and the domestic market follows the international cost [6]. - **Corn**: The corn 2511 contract was weak. Due to factors such as wheat substitution and increased imports, the price is expected to decline. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price fell. Considering international and domestic supply and demand, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price declined. Considering international and domestic supply and demand, it is recommended to wait and see and trade within the 13800 - 14200 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price dropped. The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to close long positions in the short - term and pay attention to production and policies [6][7]. - **Eggs**: The egg 2510 contract was weak. With sufficient supply and potential demand increase, the futures price is expected to decline [7]. - **Hogs**: The hog 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to expect the futures price to oscillate strongly at the end of the month [7]. - **Apples**: The apple price oscillated. The early - maturing apple price fluctuated, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE contract price slightly declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The PVC V01 contract price fell. With potential export tariffs and increasing supply, the driving factors are unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is at a high level, and the PTA price is at a low level. PX is recommended to be long - allocated, and PTA can be shorted for processing fees or far - month contracts at high prices [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price fluctuated. With inventory reduction and strong raw material support, it is recommended to go long at low prices after a pull - back [9]. - **Glass**: The glass FG01 contract price declined. With weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The PP contract price slightly decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving with the approaching peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply increased, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **EB**: The EB contract price slightly declined. With potential supply increase and high downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA01 contract price fell. With high supply and inventory, it is recommended to wait and see due to potential production reduction [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 20, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50] 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From August 13 to August 19, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 108.4, - 106.4, - 103.4, - 100.4, - 99.4 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio Data**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis and ratio from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 19 was - 1.87 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP, basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 19 was - 1025 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 80 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on August 19 was 2301 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month inter - period spreads are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 49.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 19 was 4.08 [20] - **Basis Data**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on August 19 was 144.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on August 19 was 170 yuan/ton [28] London Market - **LME Data**: Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (96.85) [35] Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 19 was - 6 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, and the spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1/corn on August 19 was 1.86 [39] Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 19 was 7.17 [51] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 42.6 [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to the rumored cancellation of export tax - rebate policies for photovoltaic modules and increased export demand leading to inventory depletion, it is advised to wait and see [2]. - For basic metals, copper lacks a clear short - term driver and should be treated with a range - bound trading idea. Aluminum may face short - term downward pressure due to tariff policies, but its price may rise in the long - term. Alumina is expected to trade in a wide range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3150 in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [2][4]. - For black industries, steel, iron ore, and coking coal markets are expected to be weak and volatile this week. It is recommended to try a reverse spread for rebar 10/1, and mainly wait and see for iron ore and coking coal [6]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term US soybeans are strong but within a trading range. Corn futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines. Sugar futures are recommended to go short at high prices. Cotton is recommended to be bought at low prices. Palm oil is still recommended for long - term allocation. Eggs and hogs futures are advised to wait and see [7][9]. - For energy and chemical products, LLDPE and PP are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term. PVC, glass, and soda ash are advised to wait and see. Rubber is recommended to be bought at low prices with caution. Crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices near 510 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. Styrene is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: Precious metals fluctuated on Friday, and the US - Russia talks showed no obvious results [3]. - **Fundamentals**: US retail sales increased in July, foreign investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a record high, and consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. Gold and silver inventories in various regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, and long at low prices in the long - term [4]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated strongly on Friday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: US inflation expectations rose, consumer confidence was weaker than expected, the US dollar index weakened, and the domestic stock market reached a new high. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the current demand was seasonally weak [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Treat with a range - bound trading idea in the short - term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract on Friday increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may face downward pressure due to tariff policies, and the long - term price may rise as the demand in the peak season is expected [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract on Friday decreased by 0.66% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 60 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina continued to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina is expected to trade in a wide range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3150 in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 contract closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 2763 lots [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly last week, social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly. The demand for polysilicon increased slightly, the output of silicone was flat, and the demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The trading logic is related to "anti - involution" varieties, and the demand has improved marginally. It is recommended to wait and see as the market is expected to be volatile [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 86,900 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1,600 yuan (+1.9%) [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The mining end of Jiaxiaowo stopped production, which will affect the monthly supply of 8000 tons of lithium carbonate from August to October. The demand for lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials is in the peak season, and the inventory decreased last week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current price is expected to be around 85,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 contract closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday, up 2310 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 10966 lots [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production schedule of silicon wafers and battery cells in August was in line with expectations, and the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long with a light position on pullbacks [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly on Friday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore remained tight, the current supply - demand was weak, and the market focused on the resumption of production in Wa State. The global visible inventory decreased by 210 tons last week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Treat with a range - bound trading idea [4][5]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2510 contract traded sideways and closed at 3197 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of building materials is slightly weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply of plates is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. The overall supply - demand of steel is balanced, but there is a significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try a reverse spread for rebar 10/1, and the reference range for RB10 is 3150 - 3220 [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2601 contract traded sideways and closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is slightly strong but weakening marginally. The iron - making water output increased, and the steel mill's profit decreased marginally. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal norm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see mainly, and the reference range for I09 is 750 - 800 [6]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2601 contract rose and closed at 1250 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased slightly, and the steel mill's profit decreased marginally. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was partially implemented. The inventory at different links is differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose but improving [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see mainly, and try to short the coking coal 2509 contract. The reference range for JM01 is 1200 - 1270 [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose on Friday, digesting the short - term improvement in supply - demand [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The near - term US soybean production decreased, while the long - term South American production is expected to increase. The demand in South America is decreasing, and there is a divergence in the export demand for new US soybeans [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term US soybeans are strong but within a trading range. Domestic soybeans follow the international cost side [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2509 contract continued to be weak, and the spot price of corn decreased in the Northeast and increased in the North China [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat has a high cost - performance ratio and substitutes for corn in feed demand. The import of grains increases the market supply, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. The new - crop corn cost decreases, suppressing the long - term price [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Corn futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The ICE raw sugar 10 contract closed at 16.47 cents/pound, with a weekly increase of 1.23%. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5656 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.63% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, Brazil's production dominates the raw sugar price. Domestically, the import of sugar pressured the spot price last week, but the price stabilized this week. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rebounded slightly and is expected to be weak and volatile in the future [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short at high prices in the futures market and sell call options [9]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US cotton futures price fell on Friday, and the international crude oil price continued to weaken [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the drought - affected area in the US cotton - growing region increased. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose, and recent data adjustments were positive for cotton prices [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices, with a trading strategy based on the range of 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton [9]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose on Friday due to good short - term exports [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply in Malaysia is in the seasonal growth cycle, and the demand has improved. The near - term inventory is increasing, while the long - term supply is expected to be tight [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Allocate more in palm oil, trading on the long - term tight supply expectation. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and the biodiesel policy [9]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2510 contract was weak, and the spot price rose [9]. - **Fundamentals**: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens. The demand from food factories is expected to increase seasonally. The supply is sufficient, and the cost has decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Eggs futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: The hog 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price of hogs decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption is gradually recovering, but the supply is sufficient due to increased slaughter in August. Pay attention to the impact of banquets at the end of the month and school - opening purchases, as well as policy trends [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term downward space for the spot price is limited after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see for futures [9]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 8188 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 1.37%. The apple price in Yantai, Shandong was stable [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of early - maturing apples has declined, but high - quality fruits in some areas are still expensive. The current futures market has little contradiction and is expected to trade sideways [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in North China was 7220 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply increased due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of maintenance plants. The import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural mulch is improving, while other areas' demand is stable [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply - demand pattern will be loose [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The v01 contract closed at 5118, up 0.1% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot trading of PVC is average, and the driving force is unclear. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is average. The social inventory has accumulated [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The rubber price fluctuated strongly last week, and the RU2601 contract rose 0.7% and closed at 15905 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The purchase price of Thai glue was stable. The spot price increased, and the trading was light. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly, while that of all - steel tires increased [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is affected by various factors, and the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to buy at low prices with caution [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1232, up 1% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass spot price continued to decline, and the production cut expectation is hard to verify. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the inventory has accumulated [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Wait and see [11]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7020 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price decreased slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing due to the resumption of maintenance plants and new plant commissioning. The demand is improving as the peak season approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply - demand pattern will be loose [11]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Crude oil prices fell slightly on Friday due to the progress of the US - Russia talks and the statement that the US will not impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil for the time being [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, with OPEC+ planning to increase production in September and other countries also having production increases. The demand in the US is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the refinery operating rate is at a high level [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high prices near 510 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract as the short - term supply shortage risk has decreased [11]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7280 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly in August. The downstream enterprises are still suffering losses, and the finished - product inventory is high but decreasing. The demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply will increase [11]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa01 contract closed at 1400, down 0.5% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of soda ash declined, and the production cut expectation still exists. The supply is increasing as the summer maintenance is coming to an end, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand for photovoltaic glass is stable [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation still exists [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 18, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data from August 11 to August 15, 2025, shows a trend of change, with values of - 115.4, - 113.4, - 108.4, - 106.4, and - 103.4 respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis, ratio, and spread are provided from August 11 to August 15, 2025 [6] - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 11 to August 15, 2025, show different trends of change [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented [9] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are provided [9] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given [18] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [18] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are provided [19] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [26] - **London Market**: Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals on August 15, 2025, are provided [32] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [37] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are given [37] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [37] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's credit data, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their specific fundamentals[2][3][4][6][7][8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Wednesday, and market expectations for interest - rate cuts increased[2]. - Fundamentals: There are expectations of an early Fed rate cut, possible changes in the Fed chair appointment, geopolitical tensions, and changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions[2]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic; suggest temporarily observing silver due to inventory reduction and possible policy changes[2]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract closed +0.27% higher at 20790 yuan/ton; the alumina 2509 contract closed - 2.36% lower at 3230 yuan/ton[3]. - Fundamentals: For electrolytic aluminum, supply capacity increased slightly while demand had no obvious improvement; for alumina, supply capacity was stable and demand came from high - load electrolytic aluminum production[3]. - Trading Strategy: For electrolytic aluminum, suggest observing as the price may fall after the positive sentiment fades; for alumina, suggest holding long positions and observing for non - participants[3]. Zinc - Market Performance: The zinc 2509 contract closed - 0.13% lower at 22,600 yuan/ton, and social inventory increased[3][4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased significantly, processing fees rose, and consumption was in the off - season with开工 rates dropping[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest selling short at high prices[4]. Lead - Market Performance: The lead 2509 contract closed +0.09% higher at 16,930 yuan/ton, and social inventory decreased[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply had regional differentiation, and consumption was affected by high - temperature holidays in the battery industry[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest observing and waiting for inventory reduction or production cut signals[4]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton, with increased positions and slightly increased warehouse receipts[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased with new furnaces opened, and demand had marginal improvement in some areas[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest observing as the price is expected to fluctuate widely[4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main LC2511 contract closed at 85,100 yuan/ton, up +3.1%[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply may face shortages in the future, and demand is in the peak season. Inventory increased recently[4]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, suggest observing; in the long - term, suggest going long at low prices if supply shortages persist[4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton, with increased positions and slightly increased warehouse receipts[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and demand was in a complex situation with mixed signals[4]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, affected by policy news[4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3216 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Building material supply - demand was neutral, and plate demand was stable. There was a significant structural differentiation[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in rebar 2510, with a reference range of 3180 - 3240 yuan[6]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore 2601 contract closed at 796 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand were neutral - strong, and the market had expectations of a Fed rate cut and China's credit data[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in iron ore 2601, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan[6]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1236.5 yuan/ton, down 70.5 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand was relatively loose but improving, and the futures were over - valued[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in coking coal 2601, with a reference range of 1200 - 1270 yuan[6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to rise overnight[7]. - Fundamentals: Supply was loose in the near - term and tight in the long - term; demand had differences in the new US soybean crop[7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are strong in the short - term, and the domestic market follows the international cost[7]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price fell[7]. - Fundamentals: Wheat substitution, import auctions, and new - crop cost pressure affected the price[7][8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures are expected to rebound after continuous decline[8]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5664 yuan/ton, up 0.32%[8]. - Fundamentals: Brazilian production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure[8]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options[8]. Cotton - Market Performance: The US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose[8]. - Fundamentals: International cotton growth progress and domestic data adjustment affected the price[8]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices and use a range - trading strategy between 14,000 - 14,300 yuan/ton[8]. Logs - Market Performance: The log 09 contract closed at 813 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.39%[8]. - Fundamentals: Spot prices rose, and the market had expectations for the future, with short - term focus on delivery[8]. - Trading Strategy: Observe[8]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to rise[8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was in the seasonal growth period, and demand was relatively weak, with inventory accumulation[8]. - Trading Strategy: It is strong in the short - term and recommended for long - term allocation, focusing on production and biodiesel policies[8]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg 2509 contract fell, and the spot price was stable[8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was sufficient, and demand had seasonal changes, with cost moving down[8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly[8]. Pigs - Market Performance: The live - hog 2511 contract declined, and the spot price rose[9]. - Fundamentals: Consumption was weak seasonally, and supply would increase in the short - and medium - term[9]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust[9]. Energy Chemical LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly, with a weak basis and general market trading[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased domestically and decreased in imports, and demand improved in the agricultural film sector[10]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[10]. PVC - Market Performance: The v09 contract closed at 5000, down 0.7%[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, demand was average, and inventory accumulated[10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe as the price has limited downside[10]. Rubber - Market Performance: The rubber price rose slightly and then fell, with inventory decreasing[10]. - Fundamentals: Overseas raw material prices provided support[10]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate strongly in the short - term[10]. Glass - Market Performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1060, down 1.6%[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase slightly, inventory accumulated, and demand recovered seasonally but was still weak[10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe as the price has limited downside[10]. PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract oscillated slightly, with a weak basis and general market trading[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated among industries[11]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[11]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices fell due to demand forecast cuts and inventory accumulation[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased, and demand had mixed signals[11]. - Trading Strategy: Look for opportunities to short the SC main contract around 520 yuan/barrel[11]. Styrene - Market Performance: The EB main contract oscillated slightly, with a general market trading atmosphere[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase in the future, and demand was affected by export prospects[11]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[11]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The sa01 contract closed at 1390, down 0.8%[12]. - Fundamentals: Supply was operating normally with high inventory, and downstream demand was weak[12]. - Trading Strategy: Observe due to production - cut expectations[12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, and it is advisable to consider short - selling silver on rallies [1][2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; for alumina, beware of callback risks; for zinc, short on rallies; for lead, wait and see; for lithium carbonate, wait and see due to high - volatility prices [2][3]. - For steel, try shorting the RB2510 contract; for iron ore, try shorting the I2601 contract; for coking coal, try shorting the JM2601 contract [4][5]. - For soybeans, the short - term is bullish, and domestic soybeans follow the international cost; for corn, the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, buy on dips; for logs, wait and see; for palm oil, it is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased; for eggs, the price is expected to be volatile; for pigs, the price is expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - For LLDPE, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for PVC, wait and see; for PTA, short - term look for positive spread opportunities and go short on processing fees or far - month contracts in the long - term; for rubber, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term; for glass, wait and see; for PP, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for MEG, wait and see; for crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities near 520 yuan/barrel; for EB, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for soda ash, wait and see [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Tuesday, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts further increased [1]. - **Fundamentals**: US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; core CPI growth reached the highest since February; the probability of a September interest rate cut rose to 95%. Trump considered suing Fed Chairman Powell, and Bisset hinted at a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. US July tariff revenue reached a record high of $28 billion, a 273% year - on - year increase. The ten - month budget deficit as of July was $1.63 trillion. Domestic gold ETFs had capital outflows. COMEX gold inventory increased by 1 ton to 1201 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained at 36 tons. London's June gold inventory was 8774 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory remained at 1151 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 64 tons to 1304 tons last week. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 11 tons to 15752 tons, and London's June silver inventory increased by 421 tons to 23788 tons. India imported about 200 tons of silver in June. The world's largest silver ETF increased its holdings by 41 tons to 15099 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on gold; consider short - selling silver on rallies [2]. Base Metals Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.24% to 20,685 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 15 yuan/ton. The LME price was $2607/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Consumption showed no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product开工 rate was stable [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as prices are expected to remain volatile [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina contract increased by 3.67% to 3191 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton. On August 11, 30,000 tons were traded in Western Australia at a price of $365/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina was stable. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Beware of callback risks as alumina is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the zinc contract increased by 0.18% to 22,630 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 55 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was in a 3.6 structure. The social inventory on August 11 was 11.92 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons from August 7 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased significantly (August zinc ingot production was 621,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons), and processing fees soared, pushing refinery profits to over 1,500 yuan/ton. The consumption off - season deepened, and the galvanizing/die - casting开工 rate dropped to 56.77%/48.24%. Typhoons and Vietnam's tariffs dragged down exports. The seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased to 113,200 tons (a weekly increase of 5,900 tons), but the LME inventory dropped below 85,000 tons, providing support [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the lead 2509 contract increased by 0.18% to 16,915 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 25 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 36 dollars/ton. The social inventory on August 11 was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from August 7 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply showed regional differentiation. Environmental protection in Anhui suppressed the regenerated lead开工 rate to 41.11% (a weekly decrease of 3.26%), while the primary lead开工 rate was 67.4% (a weekly increase of 3.5%). High - temperature holidays in battery production led to a sharp drop in the five - province开工 rate to 65.25% (a weekly decrease of 6.61%), and battery prices were under pressure. The social inventory decreased to 71,100 tons (a weekly decrease of 1,800 tons), but the inventory digestion in regenerated lead plants was slow, and high waste battery costs (10,100 - 10,250 yuan/ton) suppressed profits [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see, waiting for signals of inventory reduction or regenerated lead production cuts [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 82,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1620 yuan or 2.0% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production recovered to a new high of 19,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. If the mining end of Ruoxiaowo stops production, it will affect the monthly supply of 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and supply - demand shortage is expected from August to October. In terms of demand, the peak production season of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials emerged in August, and the bidding capacity of energy storage systems in July had a remarkable growth rate. Last week, inventory increased due to supply restoration, and the sample inventory was 142,400 tons (an increase of 692 tons). Yesterday, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 20,829 (an increase of 1440) [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to high - volatility prices in the short - term [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main RB2510 contract of steel rebounded after rising initially, closing at 3253 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 1.5% to 4.17 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in Hangzhou increased by 81,000 tons to 687,000 tons. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, with no significant total - volume contradiction but obvious structural differentiation. The steel futures had a high discount, and the valuation continued to improve [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the RB2510 contract, with a reference range of 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main I2601 contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways, closing at 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipment of Australia and Brazil in the Ganglian caliber decreased by 20,000 tons to 25.3 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival decreased by 510,000 tons to 25.72 million tons. The iron ore inventory increased by 1.33 million tons to 1.44 billion tons. The iron ore supply - demand remained moderately strong. The iron - making water production decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was proposed. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The supply was in line with seasonal rules, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The iron ore supply - demand was moderately strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the seasonal rule [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the I2601 contract, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main JM2601 contract of coking coal rebounded after rising initially, closing at 1307 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water production decreased by 4,000 tons week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and there was no plan for the next increase. The inventory at each link was differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants were at a relatively low level in the same period of history, while the inventory at mine mouths, ports, etc. continued to be at a record high. The production and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month. The overall supply - demand was still relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure remained. The futures valuation was high [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the JM2601 contract, with a reference range of 1260 - 1330 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose due to a positive USDA report [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, it was loose in the near - term, while the production and inventory of new US soybean crops were revised down in the long - term. In terms of demand, South America was dominant in the short - term, but there were still differences in the export demand of new US soybean crops [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The short - term US soybeans are bullish, digesting the positive report; domestic soybeans follow the international cost [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, while the spot price of corn fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat had a high cost - performance ratio and replaced the feed demand for corn. The weak wheat price suppressed the corn price. The auction of imported grains increased market supply, and the low transaction rate reflected weak market sentiment. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The easing of trade situation increased import expectations, and the approaching listing of early - spring corn and the significant decrease in the cost of new - crop corn suppressed the long - term price expectation. The spot price of corn was expected to be weak [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 300 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar after processing with additional tariffs was 436 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The double - week data of Brazil in July showed an increase in production, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio continued to reach a new high of 51.58%, with a double - week sugar - making ratio as high as 53.68%. The increasing production pressure in Brazil was gradually realized, and the raw sugar fluctuated at a low level. The domestic macro - sentiment cooled down, and the coastal sales area quotes dropped significantly this week, breaking below 6000 yuan/ton, indicating that the concentrated release of processed sugar was pressuring the spot. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the future, and the 01 contract will be below 6700 yuan/ton in the long - term [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight US cotton futures rose, while the international crude oil price fluctuated weakly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the August USDA data revised down the US cotton production and ending inventory, supporting the cotton price to stop falling and rebound. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, and the August BCO data adjustment was positive for the cotton price. As of the end of July, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons from the previous month [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips, with a trading strategy of range - bound trading between 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 09 contract closed at 824.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 0.96%. As of August 8, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Shandong was 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Jiangsu was 1160 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of logs rose, and the market had expectations for the future log market. In July, it entered the delivery market, and there were varying degrees of length increases in deliveries in different regions. The valuation below 800 yuan/cubic meter was low. With the cooling of macro - sentiment, in the short - term, it would be mainly based on the delivery logic, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rose, continuing to digest the positive report [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the MPOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7% month - on - month, in the seasonal production - increasing cycle. In terms of demand, the export in the production area decreased month - on - month, and the MPOB showed that Malaysia's palm oil export in July increased by 4% month - on - month. There was a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and inventory continued to accumulate but was lower than market expectations [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased, trading on the expectation of tight annual supply of oils [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price was stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens, and downstream food factories were gradually stocking up, with demand possibly increasing seasonally. There were more newly - hatched laying hens, and