运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/10/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/10/09 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for September 30, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Power Coal - The power coal data shows the basis from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis gradually decreased from -95.4 yuan/ton on September 23 to -102.4 yuan/ton on September 29, while the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month remained 0.0 [2] Group 3: Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data on fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented. The basis and price ratios of these commodities changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 15.24 yuan/ton on September 23 and 13.03 yuan/ton on September 29 [7] Chemical Commodities - In the chemical sector, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. The basis of these commodities fluctuated from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber decreased from -825 yuan/ton on September 23 to -825 yuan/ton on September 29 [9] - The cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of chemical commodities are also given. For cross - period spreads, different spreads such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are shown for various chemicals. For cross - variety spreads, spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol are presented with their values changing from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [11] Group 4: Black Metals - The black metal data includes cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as basis data. For cross - period spreads, values for 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month are given for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For cross - variety spreads, ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil are presented. The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal also changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [20][21] Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - In the domestic non - ferrous metal market, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis values of these metals fluctuated during this period [28] London Market - In the London market, data on LME non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. Information such as LME forward premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss are given for September 29, 2025 [33] Group 6: Agricultural Products - The agricultural product data includes basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For basis, values of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are shown from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads are calculated for different months (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for various agricultural products. The cross - variety spreads such as the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, etc. are also presented with their values changing over the period [38] Group 7: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures data includes basis and cross - period spreads. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter are given for these stock index futures [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but with the Fed's rate cut and conflicting outlooks, and prices at historical highs, there are risks of a market peak. For precious metals, it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday. For other commodities, trading strategies vary based on their respective fundamentals [1]. - The supply and demand of various commodities show different characteristics. For example, some have tight supply, while others face oversupply or weak demand, which affects their price trends and trading strategies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The international gold price settled at $3789 per ounce, up 0.25%. The US government shutdown risk increased, consumer spending in the US in August was strong, and Chinese industrial enterprise profits rose significantly. Gold ETF funds flowed in. There is a risk of a market peak, and it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday [1]. - **Silver**: It followed gold to reach a new high. It is also recommended to partially close positions before the holiday [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price rose and then fell on Friday. The supply is tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to be strong in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is supported by high demand. It is expected to oscillate before the lithium mine in Jiangxi is put into production, and it is advisable to consider a call option strategy before the holiday [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate between 49,000 - 54,000 yuan. Pay attention to the 11 - 12 spread [3]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile view [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the rebar 2501 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand is moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see and hold long positions in the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2501 contract and hold long positions in the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans are weak, and the domestic market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The mid - term unilateral focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost has decreased significantly. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the range of 13,300 - 13,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a high - level oscillation, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended [6]. - **Eggs**: The demand is weakening, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [7]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to short [8]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is increasing, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long term. It is recommended to short the processing margin of the far - month contract at high prices [8]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a bullish view in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: The seasonal improvement is obvious, and it is recommended to go long [8]. - **PP**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [8][9]. - **MEG**: Due to low inventory and macro - policy disturbances, it is recommended to close short positions [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream unexpectedly lowered the purchase price, and it is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodity futures markets, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on market performance and fundamentals [1][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated after rising. The market speculated on the significant production cut of Freeport's Indonesian project, and the domestic association called for anti - involution, but the strong US economic data at night led to a pull - back. Downstream demand showed resilience after the price increase. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.29% compared to the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plant maintained high - load production, and downstream consumption continued to recover. It is recommended to go long on dips as the inventory build - up rate of aluminum ingots slows down, and there is still an expectation of inventory draw - down after the holiday [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.20% compared to the previous trading day. The operating capacity of alumina plants continued to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The price of the alumina futures may rebound due to the strike in Guinea and the anti - involution sentiment in the glass industry, but the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is still falling [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday morning, it opened higher and then fluctuated. The supply side saw a decrease of 1 furnace in the number of open furnaces this week compared to last week, and the social inventory remained flat. The demand side was supported by the high operating rate of polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8700 - 9800 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: It opened higher on Thursday and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The fundamental situation is supply - strong and demand - weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 48000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity, and those with low risk appetite can consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the main contract [1][2]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, tin prices fluctuated weakly. The strong US economic data at night strengthened the US dollar index, suppressing tin prices. The supply side has expectations of resuming and starting production of tin mines. The demand needs to be boosted. It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory trading strategy [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3157 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but the structural differentiation is obvious. It is recommended to wait and see mainly, and try the 10/5 reverse spread of rebar. The reference range for RB01 is 3120 - 3190 yuan/ton [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 802.5 yuan/ton. The supply - demand of iron ore is moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see mainly and hold the long position of the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio. The reference range for I01 is 790 - 810 yuan/ton [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1216 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to wait and see mainly and hold the long position of the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio. The reference range for JM01 is 1170 - 1240 yuan/ton [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The US soybeans had a slight production cut, and South America is expected to increase production in the long - term. The global inventory is expected to remain high. The US soybeans are weak and range - bound, and the domestic market is also expected to oscillate. The mid - term focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract of corn fluctuated narrowly. The spot price in North China rose while that in the Northeast fell. The new crop is expected to increase production, and the cost has dropped significantly, suppressing the forward price. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5494 yuan/ton. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production reached a new high, and the domestic import volume in August also reached a new high. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, the price of US cotton futures stopped falling and oscillated. The international cotton export sales decreased, and the domestic cotton cloth import increased. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and adopt a range - bound strategy between 13600 - 14000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Log**: The 11 contract of log closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter. The overall inventory of major ports in the country decreased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rose. The supply side in Malaysia is entering the seasonal production - cut period, and the demand side has an expected increase in exports in September. It is expected to enter a high - level oscillation, and later attention should be paid to the production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [5][6]. - **Egg**: The 2511 contract of eggs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. After the double - festival stocking is coming to an end, the egg price is expected to oscillate and weaken, and the futures are also expected to be weak [6]. - **Pig**: The 2511 contract of pigs rebounded, and the spot price fell. The supply is abundant, and the pig price before the festival is expected to be weak. The futures price is expected to run weakly due to the loose supply [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Yesterday, the main contract of LLDPE rebounded slightly. The supply pressure in the domestic market has increased but is slowing down, and the demand has improved in the downstream agricultural film season. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading [7]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4904 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is in a weak balance. It is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1270 yuan/ton. The price rose driven by expectations. The supply - demand has little change, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips [7][8]. - **PP**: Yesterday, the main contract of PP rebounded slightly. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand has recovered in the peak season. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Yesterday, oil prices rose again. The supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of the SC main contract around 500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Styrene**: Yesterday, the main contract of EB oscillated slightly. The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading as the supply gradually recovers [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1300 yuan/ton. The inventory of soda ash continued to decline, and the price rose slightly. The supply side is expected to tighten, and it is recommended to go long [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh01 contract closed at 2529 yuan/ton. The purchase price of the main downstream of caustic soda decreased again. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 25, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, spreads, and price ratios. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data from September 18 to September 24, 2025, shows that the basis on September 18 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, gradually increasing to - 95.4 yuan/ton on September 24. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy products, basis data from September 18 to September 24, 2025, and price ratio data of crude oil to asphalt are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 24 was 135.72 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: The basis data of chemical products such as rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 24 was - 820 yuan/ton. Also, spread and price ratio data for cross - period and cross - variety are given, like the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 24 was 2232 yuan/ton [9][11] Black Metals - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 60.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Cross - variety**: The cross - variety price ratios and spreads of black metals from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore price ratio on September 24 was 3.93, and the rebar - hot rolled coil spread was - 193.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on September 24 was 126.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on September 24 was 90 yuan/ton [28] - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London price ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals on September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was (31.37) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 24 was 153 yuan/ton [38] - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of agricultural products are shown, such as the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 50 [38] - **Cross - variety**: The cross - variety price ratios and spreads of agricultural products from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal price ratio on September 24 was 2.77 [38] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 24 was 36.07 [49] - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of stock index futures are shown, such as the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 18.4 [49]

2025年09月24日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：贵金属价格继续走高，纽约金突破 3800 美元/盎司，市场资金继续做多。 | | 金 | 基本面：美联储主席鲍威尔公开讲话称美股估值相当高，重申面临通胀上升与就业下滑的双重挑战，未明确 | | 属 | 表态 10 月是否降息；美联储官员对于降息依旧存在分歧，联储执委鲍曼警告已"落后于形势"，地区联储主 | | | 席古尔斯比呼吁谨慎行事；美国 9 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值 52，连续第二个月扩张，预期 52.2，8 月前值 | | | 53，去年同期为 47.3。其中，就业指数从 8 月的 53.1 降至 52.6；新订单指数环比下降。美国 9 月 Markit 服 | | | 务业 PMI 初值 53.9，为 2025 年 6 月以来的最低值，预期 54，8 月前值 54.5，去年同期为 55.2。其中，就业 | | | 指数从 8 月份的 52 降至 51.6，为 2025 年 4 月以来的最低值；物价指数较上月下降，为 2025 年 4 月以来的 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 23, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Catalog Power Coal - The basis data from September 16 to 22, 2025, shows that the basis on September 22 was - 96.4 yuan/ton, gradually increasing from - 113.4 yuan/ton on September 16. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from September 16 to 22, 2025, and their price ratios and basis values are presented. For example, on September 22, the basis of INE crude oil was 84.22 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 16 to 22, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 22 was - 915 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol for 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 20 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 16 to 22, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 22, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2198 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 16 to 22, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on September 22 was 105.0 yuan/ton [21] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal for 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9(10) - month vs 1 - month, and 9(10) - month vs 5 - month are provided. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 16 to 22, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 22, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.92 [20] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 16 to 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of copper on September 22 was - 30 yuan/ton [28] - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 22, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (72.44) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 16 to 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 22 was 148 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products for 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 16 to 22, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 22, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.81 [40] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 16 to 22, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 22 was 38.61 [51] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for next - month vs current - month and next - quarter vs current - quarter are provided. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 15.6 [51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific information about the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. Although the Fed cut interest rates as expected, there are contradictions in the outlook. Gold prices are at a historical high, with short - term high - level oscillations and a medium - term bullish trend. Silver follows gold and is recommended to be observed [4]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on their market performance, fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships, such as going long on aluminum at dips, observing for zinc, going long on lead at dips, etc. [3][5] Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is at a high level. The de - dollarization logic persists, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations and a medium - term upward trend. Domestic gold ETF funds continue to flow in, and inventories in some exchanges increase [4]. - **Silver**: Follows the trend of gold and is recommended to be observed. Global silver ETF holdings decrease [4]. Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract drops. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side shows continuous warming. After the interest - rate cut and inventory de - stocking difficulties, the price has a phased decline. It is recommended to go long at dips considering future demand. The price of the alumina main contract also drops. The supply is in a high - production state, and the demand comes from electrolytic aluminum plants. Due to the supply - demand surplus pattern, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to observe [3]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract drops. Supply - side disturbances increase, but overall supply is abundant. Consumption is "not in the peak - season", and inventories continue to accumulate. It is recommended to observe [3][5]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract rises slightly. Supply is regionally tightened, and consumption is expected to increase. Inventories show a small accumulation, but spot circulation is tight. It is recommended to go long at dips [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price drops. Supply increases, and both social and warehouse inventories start to accumulate. Demand is at a relatively high level this year. The market is in a long - short game regarding policies, and it is expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to observe [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price drops. Supply is increasing, and demand from the energy - storage and new - energy vehicle sectors is strong. It is expected to de - stock, and the price is expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to observe [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price drops. Supply is stable, and inventories start to accumulate. Demand in the photovoltaic industry is weak. The market is in a game regarding policies, and it is expected to oscillate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunity [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract drops. Steel demand shows seasonal marginal improvement with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in the rebar 2601 contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract drops. Iron ore supply - demand is neutral to strong. It is recommended to observe [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract drops. Supply - side inventories are differentiated, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to observe [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price of CBOT soybeans drops. Global supply is expected to be loose, and demand shows a structural differentiation. Short - term domestic and foreign markets are differentiated, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [7]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract is weakly running. Imported grain auctions increase supply, and new - crop production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price drops. Brazilian sugar production is high, and the domestic sugarcane growing situation varies by region. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: The price of the US cotton futures drops, and the domestic cotton futures are weakly oscillating. It is recommended to observe within a certain price range [8]. - **Log**: The 09 contract price drops. Port inventories are stable, and downstream demand has not improved. It is recommended to observe [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Malaysian palm oil drops. Supply is in a seasonal increase cycle, and demand shows a certain increase. Near - term inventories are accumulating, and there is a seasonal production - reduction expectation in the long - term. The short - term is restricted by international oils, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [8]. - **Egg**: The 2511 contract oscillates narrowly, and the spot price drops. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term [8]. - **Live Pig**: The 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price drops. Supply is abundant in the near - term and expected to decrease in the long - term. It is recommended to continue the reverse - spread strategy [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price drops slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse - spread operation [10]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract price is flat. Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and inventories are at a new high. It is recommended to observe [10]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract drops. Raw material prices fluctuate, and downstream enterprise operating rates change slightly. The market is in an oscillating state under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation [10]. - **Glass**: The 01 contract price drops. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and inventories are decreasing. Downstream demand shows seasonal improvement. It is recommended to go long at dips [10][11]. - **PP**: The main contract price drops slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the peak - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse - spread operation [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price drops. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price drops. Supply inventories are at a normal - to - high level, and demand is in the peak - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or short the styrene profit [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract price drops. Supply is in the high - production season, and inventories are rising. Supply - demand is in a weak balance. It is recommended to observe [11][12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 01 contract price rises. Supply - demand is relatively healthy. It is recommended to go long [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market may pre - price the Fed's probability of restarting interest rate cuts during the September interest rate meeting this week [2]. - The technology sector in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors [2]. - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying [2]. - The Fed's decision may intensify market divergence and increase short - term volatility [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index is weakly volatile [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, driving up steel prices [2]. - Iron ore prices are supported by factors such as resumed shipments, increased hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - The prices of some energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand patterns, production maintenance, and inventory changes [2]. - The prices of some agricultural products are influenced by factors like supply, demand, and market sentiment [2]. - Some special and new - energy commodities are affected by factors such as cost, macro - environment, and industry meetings [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology mainline in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a double - buying strategy for options can be attempted [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying. A unilateral strategy suggests investors wait and see, and pay short - term attention to changes in the capital market, the equity market, and fundamentals [2]. Precious Metals - Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of easing has been rising, and the US dollar index has fallen to the lowest point of the year. For gold, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after the decision. An option double - buying strategy at the strike price of 840 can be tried. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is weakly volatile, and a spread arbitrage between December and October can be considered [2]. Steel and Related Products - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. It is recommended to go long on steel in the short term. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and short hot - rolled coils. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and short coke. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and short coke [2]. Energy and Chemical Products - For crude oil, it is recommended to mainly wait and see unilaterally. For urea, wait and see unilaterally, with a short - term support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton. For PX, it is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. For PTA, it is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term and conduct a rolling reverse spread between TA1 and TA5. For short - fiber, it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - grade polyester chips, its demand may decline in September, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol, wait and see unilaterally and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. For caustic soda, wait and see. For PVC, wait and see. For pure benzene, it follows styrene and oil prices in the short term. For styrene, conduct a rolling low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure around 7200, and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level. For synthetic rubber, its price is expected to fluctuate between 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE, it will oscillate between 7150 - 7450 in the short term. For PP, it is slightly bullish. For methanol, conduct range - bound operations between 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, operate the 01 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100. For live pigs, the market is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn, be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, observe whether the main contract of palm oil can stabilize above 9500. For sugar, pay attention to the pressure level around 5700 - 5750. For cotton, wait and see unilaterally. For eggs, reduce previous short positions and control positions. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, pay attention to the support at 10700. For soda ash, wait and see [2]. Special and New - Energy Commodities - For glass, wait and see and pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market during the peak season. For rubber, it is in a high - level oscillation due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, it is strongly volatile, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting interest rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Volatility may increase after the Fed's decision [2]. - The technology sector has regained strength in the stock index futures market, with funds rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a long straddle options strategy can be considered [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has initially stabilized around 1.8%. The central bank's bond - buying expectations have increased, and the bond futures market has first declined and then risen. Traders are advised to wait and see and focus on the capital, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - Pre - Fed decision, the loose expectation has caused the US dollar index to fall to its lowest point this year. Gold and silver prices have fluctuated. After the decision, silver volatility may rise and then fall [2]. - The main container shipping index (European line) has shown weak and volatile performance, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices are expected to be strong, supported by factors such as increased shipments, rising pig iron production, and replenishment demand [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, seasonal maintenance, and macro - environment. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of products such as corn, soybeans, and livestock are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal factors, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [2]. - In the special and new energy product sectors, the prices of products such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment and cost, and different trading stances are recommended [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology sector has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility declines, a long straddle options strategy can be tried [2]. Treasury Futures - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has stabilized around 1.8%. The central bank's bond - buying expectations have increased. Traders are advised to wait and see and focus on short - term market changes [2]. Precious Metals - Pre - Fed decision, the US dollar index has fallen, and gold and silver prices have fluctuated. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. Different options strategies are recommended for gold and silver [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main index has shown weak and volatile performance, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [2]. Black Metals - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced. Coking coal, iron ore, and coke prices are expected to be strong. Specific ranges for long - buying and spread - trading strategies are provided [2]. Energy and Chemical - Different products have different supply - demand situations. For example, PX and PTA are expected to have different short - term supply - demand conditions. Various trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, range - trading, and spread - trading are recommended for each product [2]. Agricultural Products - The prices of products such as corn, soybeans, and livestock are affected by supply, demand, and seasonal factors. Different trading suggestions are provided for each product, such as waiting and seeing, range - trading, and position - adjustment [2]. Special and New Energy Products - Products such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by market sentiment and cost. Different stances such as waiting and seeing and range - trading are recommended [2].