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风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250517
CMS· 2025-05-17 13:49
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 0.82%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 1.15% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.09, and for the value style, it is 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 4 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 58.26% for growth and 41.74% for value [3][18] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.22, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.13, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][19] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.18%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.98 [4][20]
风格轮动策略周报20250418:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250420
CMS· 2025-04-20 13:39
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 0.88%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 1.77% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.03, and for the value style, it is 1.07, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 3 out of 7 indicators favor growth, while 4 favor value, resulting in a win rate of 46.13% for growth and 53.87% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The investment expectation formula yields a value style investment expectation of 0.11 and a growth style expectation of -0.06, leading to a recommendation for the value style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 26.20%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.96 [4][18]
风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-2025-04-06
CMS· 2025-04-06 06:46
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The overall market growth style portfolio had a return of -0.55%, while the value style portfolio had a return of 0.18% in the last week [8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.01, while for the value style it is 1.03, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rate for the growth style is 31.12%, and for the value style, it is 68.88%, based on seven win rate indicators [3][17] Group 3 - The latest investment expectations calculated show a growth style expectation of -0.38 and a value style expectation of 0.40, leading to a recommendation for the value style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 26.73%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.98 [4][19]
对话菁英投顾——第七届新财富最佳投资顾问李享会
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-03-25 01:59
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the results of the 2024 Seventh New Wealth Best Investment Advisor Competition, showcasing the achievements of investment advisors and emphasizing the importance of professional skills in wealth management [2][5]. Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition involved 36,616 investment advisors from 96 securities companies, indicating a highly competitive environment [2]. - Li Xianghui, a senior investment advisor from Beijing Jinsong Nine District Securities Branch, achieved an impressive 9th place nationally among nearly 40,000 participants [2][5]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The simulated ETF portfolio managed by Li Xianghui recorded a cumulative return of 32.93% from May 6, 2024, to October 31, 2024, ranking 65th out of 2,038 participants [7][8]. - The stock selection success rate for the portfolio was 80.43%, with a maximum drawdown of 11.80% and a turnover rate of 2742.11% [8]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes a short-term, low-buying strategy while avoiding high chasing, focusing on technical analysis and market timing [12][13]. - The advisor combines Elliott Wave Theory and Chan Theory to create a comprehensive investment advisory system, focusing on the integration of volume, price, time, and space [14][15]. Group 4: Strategy and Analysis - The competition strategies included fundamental analysis of macroeconomic factors and technical analysis for timing trades, highlighting the need for a balanced approach [17]. - A multi-directional hedging strategy was also mentioned as a means to reduce market risk, although it is noted that retail investors often lack effective short-selling tools [17].