东吴证券近日发布燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：美俄关于俄乌冲突停火期限问题尚存矛盾，引 发天然气供应前景担忧，欧洲气价上涨截至2025/08/01，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚JKM/中国 LNG出厂/中国LNG到岸价周环比变动-4.4%/+4.9%/+1.1%/-1.1%/+5.1%至0.7/2.9/3.1/3/3.1元/ 方，国内外气价倒挂。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 价格跟踪：美俄关于俄乌冲突停火期限问题尚存矛盾，引发天然气供应前景担忧，欧洲 气价上涨截至2025/08/01，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚JKM/中国LNG出厂/中国LNG到岸价周环比 变动-4.4%/+4.9%/+1.1%/-1.1%/+5.1%至0.7/2.9/3.1/3/3.1元/方，国内外气价倒挂。 【责任编辑：杨梓安 】 顺价进展：2022~2025M7，全国64%(187个)地级及以上城市进行了居民顺价，提价幅度 为0.21元/方。2024年龙头城燃公司价差0.53~0.54元/方，配气费合理值在0.6元/方以上，价差 仍存10%修复空间，顺价仍将继续落地。 省内天然气管道运价机制发布，助力实现"全国一张网"、促进下游降本放量。202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The ongoing concerns regarding the ceasefire timeline in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to supply worries, resulting in a rise in European gas prices [1] - Domestic natural gas pipeline pricing mechanisms have been released, which are expected to lower costs and increase volume for urban gas companies [1] Price Tracking - As of August 1, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH -4.4%, European TTF +4.9%, East Asia JKM +1.1%, China LNG ex-factory -1.1%, and China LNG CIF +5.1% [10][11] - The domestic and international gas price disparity is noted, with domestic prices showing a decline [10][11] Supply and Demand Analysis - The average total supply of natural gas in the US increased by 0.3% week-on-week to 1,132 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand rose by 4.6% to 1,096 billion cubic feet per day [14] - In Europe, natural gas consumption for the first four months of 2025 was 192 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [17] - Domestic natural gas apparent consumption in China decreased by 0.2% year-on-year to 210.3 billion cubic meters for the first half of 2025 [26] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are gradually being implemented, with 64% of cities having undergone residential pricing adjustments, resulting in an increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [35] Important Announcements - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines to improve the pricing mechanism for provincial natural gas pipeline transportation, aiming to facilitate high-quality industry development [48][49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the new pricing mechanisms, particularly recommending New Hope Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy among others [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry, specifically recommending New Hope Holdings for its stable profits and high dividend yield [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the cooling temperatures in the US have led to a decrease in gas prices, while European storage efforts are also contributing to price declines. Domestic gas prices are showing weakness [1][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with stable profits and high dividends, particularly New Hope Holdings, which is expected to see significant improvements in profit structure post-restructuring [1][51]. Price Tracking - As of July 25, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH -11.9%, European TTF -2.9%, East Asia JKM -1%, China LNG ex-factory -0.4%, and China LNG CIF -4.7%, with prices settling at 0.8, 2.8, 3, 3, and 3 CNY per cubic meter respectively [10][11]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In the US, the average total supply of natural gas decreased by 0.2% week-on-week to 1,129 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 2.1% to 1,049 billion cubic feet per day. Year-on-year, supply is up 4.5% and demand is up 5.6% [14]. - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to April 2025 was 1,920 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. The average daily gas generation in Europe increased by 10.1% week-on-week and 54.3% year-on-year [16]. Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 64% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 CNY per cubic meter. The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment recovery [37]. Important Events - The US LNG import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [44]. - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding natural gas storage targets, allowing for a deviation of 10 percentage points from the 90% storage goal [49][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from a relaxed pricing mechanism, particularly recommending New Hope Holdings (2025 dividend yield of 6.2%), China Gas (5.9%), and others with strong dividend yields [51].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: None [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) pilot program aimed at accelerating advanced nuclear reactor development and strengthening the domestic nuclear fuel supply chain. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on imported enriched uranium and key materials, fostering a domestic nuclear fuel industry [4][16] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. is accelerating the self-sufficiency layout of critical resources, with nuclear fuel being a vital component of national energy security. The transition from heavy reliance on imports to rebuilding a domestic system is underway, supported by a comprehensive mechanism from policy guidance to financial support [4][16] - The report notes significant market movements, particularly in the uranium sector, with top-performing companies experiencing substantial gains, reflecting heightened market focus on energy and critical resources [4][9] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI - The report indicates that Hong Kong and U.S. tech stocks saw an increase, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.5% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 0.6% during the week of July 14 to July 18, 2025 [7][8] - The uranium sector experienced a notable surge, with top companies like ENERGY FUELS and ASP ISOTOPES seeing increases of 42% and 39% respectively, indicating strong market interest in energy self-sufficiency [9][14] 2. Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization rose to $3.86 trillion as of July 18, 2025, up from $3.61 trillion the previous week, indicating a positive market trend [18][22] - The report highlights that the core assets in the cryptocurrency market saw a net inflow of $2.386 billion during the week, reflecting strong investor interest [28] - Key legislative developments in the U.S. regarding cryptocurrency, including the passage of the GENIUS Act, have bolstered market expectations, contributing to a rise in core asset prices [32][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The gas prices remain stable across various regions due to the advancement of European storage and persistent high temperatures in the U.S. [4][9] - The supply-demand dynamics indicate a slight increase in total supply and demand in the U.S. market, with a notable rise in natural gas consumption for power generation [13][14] - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the gradual recovery of demand in the domestic market [46] Price Tracking - As of July 4, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas prices are as follows: U.S. HH -0.3%, European TTF +1.2%, East Asia JKM -0.3%, China LNG ex-factory -0.1%, and China LNG CIF -0.1% [9][10] - The domestic LNG ex-factory price is 4412 RMB/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [10] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the U.S., the average total supply of natural gas increased by 0.2% week-on-week to 112.5 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand rose by 6.3% to 104.7 billion cubic feet per day [13] - European natural gas consumption for the first quarter of 2025 was 160 billion cubic meters, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [14] Pricing Mechanism Progress - Nationwide, 64% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 RMB/cubic meter [33] Important Events - The U.S. LNG import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of U.S. gas imports [41][42] - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding natural gas storage targets, allowing a deviation of 10 percentage points from the 90% storage goal [45] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting key companies such as New Hope Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [46][47] - Attention is also drawn to companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and New Hope Holdings [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The easing of Middle East tensions has led to a decline in European gas prices, while high temperatures have driven up US gas prices, with domestic prices remaining stable [4][9] - The supply-demand dynamics indicate a slight increase in US gas supply and demand, with total supply rising by 0.2% week-on-week to 1,125 billion cubic feet per day, and total demand increasing by 6.3% to 1,047 billion cubic feet per day [16][24] - The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the domestic market, with a gradual implementation of pricing reforms across various cities [40] Price Tracking - As of June 27, 2025, US HH gas prices increased by 4.1% week-on-week, while European TTF prices decreased by 17.8% [9][14] - The domestic LNG ex-factory price was reported at 4,416 CNY per ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.2% [14][29] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that the average total supply of natural gas in the US has increased by 4.0% year-on-year, while total demand has grown by 1.6% year-on-year [16][24] - European gas consumption for the first quarter of 2025 was 160 billion cubic meters, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [19] Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report indicates that 64% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 CNY per cubic meter [40] Important Events - The US gas import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [47][49] - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding gas storage targets, allowing for a deviation of 10% from the 90% storage goal [52] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from pricing reforms, highlighting New Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy as key investment opportunities [53][54] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and New Energy [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in inventory, a decline in US gas prices, and weak demand domestically, while European gas prices show a slight increase [1][10] - It emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the potential for demand recovery in 2025, alongside cost optimization for gas companies [1][54] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of May 23, 2025, US HH gas prices decreased by 4.8%, while European TTF prices increased by 5.8%. The prices for East Asia JKM and China's LNG showed increases of 5% and 5.5% respectively [10][12] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas supply increased by 1.3% week-on-week to 1,118 billion cubic feet per day, with total demand rising by 4.2% to 982 billion cubic feet per day. However, the industrial sector saw a decrease in consumption by 0.9% [15] - European gas consumption for January-February 2025 was 115.5 billion cubic meters, up 11% year-on-year, while the average gas generation in Europe decreased by 15.5% week-on-week [17][26] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 63% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter. The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment [39] Important Events - The US LNG import tariff was reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [46] - The European Commission voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets, allowing member states to achieve storage goals more easily [51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments. Key recommendations include New Energy (5.2% dividend yield), China Gas (7.0% dividend yield), and Kunlun Energy (4.1% dividend yield) [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Demand remains weak in the US and domestic gas prices have declined, while European gas prices have slightly increased. The inventory levels are lower year-on-year [1][10] - The US LNG import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, improving the economic feasibility of US gas imports [1][41] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of May 16, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH -4.9%, European TTF +0.3%, East Asia JKM +3.8%, China LNG ex-factory -0.4%, and China LNG CIF -0.6% [10] Supply and Demand Analysis - After a brief period of high temperatures, the climate has returned to suitable temperatures, leading to continued weak demand. The average total supply of natural gas in the US increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 1,104 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 0.4% to 944 billion cubic feet per day [14] - European gas consumption for January-February 2025 was 1,155 billion cubic meters, up 11% year-on-year. As of May 15, 2025, European gas inventory was 497 TWh, down 251.5 TWh year-on-year [16] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are gradually advancing, with 63% of cities implementing residential pricing adjustments, resulting in an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [34] Important Events - The reduction of the US LNG import tariff from 140% to 25% enhances the economic viability of US gas imports [41] - The European Commission has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets, allowing member states to achieve storage goals with greater flexibility [46][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing mechanism adjustments. Key recommendations include: - New Hope Energy (dividend yield 5.4%) - China Resources Gas (dividend yield 4.5%) - Kunlun Energy (dividend yield 4.5%) - China Gas (dividend yield 7.0%) - Blue Sky Gas (dividend yield 8.8%) [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights weak demand in the US and domestic gas price declines, with European gas prices showing a slight increase. The US LNG import tariff has been reduced to 25% [1][48] - The supply is expected to remain ample, with gas companies optimizing costs and a continued adjustment of pricing mechanisms, leading to potential demand growth [48] Price Tracking - As of May 16, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas prices are as follows: US HH -4.9%, European TTF +0.3%, East Asia JKM +3.8%, China LNG ex-factory -0.4%, and China LNG CIF -0.6% [10][1] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 110.4 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 0.4% to 94.4 billion cubic feet per day [14][1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that after a brief period of high temperatures, the climate has returned to suitable temperatures, leading to continued weak demand in the US natural gas market [14] - In Europe, natural gas consumption for the first two months of 2025 was 115.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 11% [16][1] - Domestic gas prices in China have slightly decreased by 0.4% due to slow demand recovery and ample supply [22][1] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are gradually being implemented, with 63% of cities having executed residential pricing adjustments, resulting in an increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [34][1] Important Events - The US LNG import tariff has been significantly reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [41][1] - The European Commission has voted in favor of introducing more flexible natural gas storage filling targets to avoid supply shortages and price spikes [46][1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the easing supply conditions, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [48][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a potential decline in production, an increase in US gas prices, and lower year-on-year inventory levels, leading to a rise in European gas prices [1][6] - It emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the gradual recovery of demand, suggesting a favorable outlook for gas companies [6][59] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of May 9, 2025, US HH, European TTF, East Asia JKM, and China's LNG prices have increased by 4%, 3.9%, 1.7%, 0%, and 7.3% respectively, with prices at 0.8, 2.9, 2.9, 3.1, and 3.1 yuan per cubic meter [11][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas production may decline as some energy companies reduce drilling rigs, with average total supply decreasing by 0.5% week-on-week to 1,099 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 1.8% to 950 billion cubic feet per day [18] - European gas consumption in May 2025 was 605 billion cubic meters, up 1.8% year-on-year, but inventory levels were down 13.6% year-on-year [23][30] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are being implemented, with 61% of cities having initiated residential pricing reforms, leading to improved profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [43] Important Events - The report notes that tariffs on US LNG have increased to 140%, which has a limited impact due to the small share of US LNG in total imports [51][53] - The European Commission has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets to avoid supply shortages [56][58] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting key companies such as Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [59] - It suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible operations, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Holdings [59]