1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US PPI in July increased significantly, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations cooled, causing the US dollar index to rebound and global risk appetite to decline. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in July decreased, and economic growth slowed, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff risks, leading to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term; bonds may oscillate and correct at a high level; in the commodity sector, black metals may have greater short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate weakly, and precious metals may oscillate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - **Macro Situation**: US July PPI increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, indicating potential inflation. Fed officials refuted the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the trade deficit decreased, weakening the contribution of net exports to the economy. Policies such as the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff risks [2]. - **Asset Performance**: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy. Bonds may oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have greater short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate weakly, and precious metals may oscillate at a high level, all with a cautious approach [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Movement**: The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as armament restructuring, rail transit equipment, and components. The economic growth in July slowed, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations, with an enhanced short - term upward macro - drive [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term cautious long - position, but beware of high - level correction risks [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: The decline of steel futures and spot prices widened on Thursday, with reduced trading volume. Real - world demand weakened, inventory increased by 400,000 tons week - on - week, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and plate production was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou. Iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market as oscillating weakly in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline of iron ore futures and spot prices widened on Thursday. With an approaching important event, iron - water production may decline. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 151,000 tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 1.259 million tons. Port inventory was accumulating, and supply pressure increased. Iron ore prices may weaken periodically [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, but the futures prices declined significantly. Manganese ore prices slightly increased, and there was an expectation of new silicon - manganese production capacity. Some silicon - iron enterprises had profits and high production enthusiasm. The downstream was waiting for steel mill pricing and had a strong willingness to replenish inventory. Iron - alloy prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the main soda - ash contract oscillated. Supply increased week - on - week, and the pattern of oversupply remained unchanged, with new device launches expected in the fourth quarter. Demand support was weak, and profit decreased week - on - week. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, with limited upward price space [7]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the main glass contract oscillated. Glass daily melting volume remained stable week - on - week, and there were expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Terminal real - estate demand was weak but slightly improved. Glass profit decreased week - on - week. Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US economy is slowing, and the risk of recession exists. Copper - mine production growth is higher than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper - price trend may not last [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, the aluminum closing price declined slightly. Aluminum's fundamentals weakened, with domestic social inventory increasing by nearly 140,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 137,000 tons from the low in mid - June. The medium - term upward space is limited, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [10][11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts. It is in the demand off - season, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory decreased by 90 tons to 10,235 tons. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space due to risks and weak demand [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, lithium carbonate oscillated sharply. The main 2511 contract increased by 0.28%. The supply of the Jiangxi Ningde Times Jiaxiawo Mine stopped, causing a short - term supply shortage. The subsequent uncertainty lies in whether the remaining mines can complete the ore - type change by September 30 [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1.14%. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal and polysilicon sentiment and the cash - flow cost support [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main 2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 3.08%. The number of warehouse receipts increased, reflecting stronger hedging and delivery intentions. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the possibility of a weakening market [14]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang was weak, and the basis was strong. The inventory in Chinese ports and production enterprises increased. Supply - side maintenance was concentrated, and there were rumors of coking production cuts in Shandong. The supply was expected to decrease, and demand was boosted by the restart of inland olefin plants. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, but there were regional differences. The price is expected to oscillate [15][16]. - **PP**: The spot market of PP oscillated and declined. The inventory of two major petrochemical companies decreased. Crude - oil prices decreased, improving PP cost - profit, and new production capacity was planned to be launched in mid - to - late August. Demand was in the off - season, and industrial inventory increased. The 09 contract price may have limited fluctuations, and the 01 contract is currently considered weak. Pay attention to oil - price fluctuations [16]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE was slightly adjusted. The weekly production increased by 0.14% and is expected to decrease by 3.49% next week. Demand showed signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak. Pay attention to demand and inventory replenishment [17]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1031, down 13.25 or 1.27%. The net export sales of the current - market - year US soybeans decreased by 377,600 tons in the week ending August 7, while the next - market - year net export sales increased by 1.133 million tons [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: After the preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping, rapeseed meal drove up the premium sentiment of soybean meal. The export price of Brazilian soybeans increased. The short - term cost drove up soybean meal prices, but the domestic inventory was accumulating, and the downstream demand was weak. If China imports US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed meal, the premium will decline [18][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed - oil port inventory was high and difficult to deplete, and the supply was expected to shrink. The cost of soybean oil was stable, and the supply - demand situation would improve in the fourth quarter. Palm - oil inventory in Malaysia was accumulating, and export demand was expected to improve. Indonesian and Indian inventories were low. Domestic rapeseed oil was affected by policy news. The overall valuation of oils and fats was slightly high. Pay attention to the supplementary increase of soybean oil and consider the strategy of buying soybean oil and shorting palm oil [19]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn was weak, and market transactions were inactive. Enterprises in North China planned to reduce inventory. Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, and the supply is expected to be sufficient. The corn futures market was weak [20]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price in the benchmark area is stable at 13.5 - 13.8 yuan/kg. Large - scale pig farms have almost completed weight - reduction, and the entry of secondary fattening has increased. With the cooling weather, demand is expected to improve, and pig prices may rebound [20].

【环球时报记者 陈子帅 白云怡 环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 环球时报特约记者 裴茗】12日，中美双方发布《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》。根 据声明，自当日起，美国继续暂停实施24%的对等关税90天，保留加征剩余10%的关税；中方继续暂停实施24%对美加征关税以及有关非关税反制措施90 天，保留加征剩余10%的关税。另据媒体报道，当地时间11日，美国总统特朗普已签署行政令，将对中国的关税暂停措施再延长90天。英国广播公司 （BBC）说，尽管事前舆论已经广泛作出准确预测，但在靴子真正落地之前，大家还是屏住了呼吸。12日，"靴子落地"。美国彭博社说，这一事态发展稳定 了世界上两个最大经济体之间的贸易关系，缓解了外界对关税战重燃的担忧，也使得两国有更多时间讨论一些悬而未决的问题。多名分析人士12日对《环球 时报》记者表示，中美延长"关税休战"90天显示两国经贸关系走向"阶段性缓和"，也为下一阶段的双边磋商创造了一定程度的积极氛围。 " 逐渐回归基本稳定 " "过去3个月来，中美两国通过平等对话、谈判协商的方式，为美国单方面发起的关税战按下了'暂停键'。"中国国际问题研究院美国所副所长张腾军12日对 《环球时报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

这一表态是在美国总统特朗普大范围的新关税政策生效后作出的，给仍在寻求更有利条款的贸易伙伴带 来了更大的紧迫性。包括加拿大、墨西哥和瑞士在内的一些主要贸易伙伴仍在寻求与美国达成更有利的 条款。 值得注意的是，作为财政部长，贝森特在特朗普第二任期内的政策影响力正日益凸显。 美国财长贝森特为悬而未决的贸易谈判设定了新的时间表。 据媒体8月11日报道，美国财政部长贝森特上周四在接受媒体采访时表示，预计到10月底前将基本完成 与尚未达成贸易协议国家的谈判。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月8日，白宫官员证实，比利·朗将在上任不到两个月后卸任美国国税局局 长一职，贝森特将暂代国税局局长。报道指出，此次人事变动正值特朗普政府的新关税政策生效仅数 日，且距离包含大规模减税和支出计划的新法案签署刚满一个月。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

路透社8日援引未具名印度官员的话报道，由于美国对印度加征高额关税，印度已经决定暂停执行购买美国武器装备的计划。 印度防长取消访美 每经编辑｜段炼 近期，印度与美国的贸易谈判因双方在关税和非关税壁垒上的分歧而陷于困境。美国总统特朗普6日又以印度进口俄罗斯石油为由，下令对印度输美产品 额外征收25%的关税，这意味着美国对印度征收的总体关税税率达到50%。 印度政府表示，美方对印度加征关税的做法"不公平、不正当、不合理"，印度将"采取一切必要行动"维护国家利益。 暂停购买美国武器 报道说，印度暂停采购的美制武器装备包括"斯特赖克"装甲车、"标枪"反坦克导弹以及6架P-8I反潜侦察机。 8月7日，就美国宣布对印度加征50%关税，印度总理莫迪首次发表讲话予以回应。莫迪说，即使为此付出沉重代价，他也不会损害印度农民的利益。 美国商务部的数据显示，去年美国对印度的商品贸易逆差约为450亿美元。美国从印度进口价值870亿美元的商品，包括药品、智能手机等通信设备，以及 服装等。印度从美国进口价值420亿美元的商品，包括石油和天然气、化学品，以及航空航天产品等，美国一度是印度最大的贸易伙伴。 路透社报道，两名印度官员透露，印度国 ...

约旦从美国主要进口汽车，以及部分化学品和医药产品。伊亚德预计未来 约美贸易谈判将涉及进口等多个方面，可能推动美国汽车在约旦市场价格下 降。 （原标题：约旦工业协会回应美方加税：成衣业受影响，进口汽车价格或将下调） 约旦罗亚新闻网8月3日报道，安曼工业协会董事会成员伊亚德·哈勒塔姆 在接受采访时表示，美国近期决定对部分原本享有零关税的约旦出口商品征收 15%关税，受影响最大的为成衣业，尤其是针织品。食品工业具备本地资源基 础和增长潜力，应作为未来重点培育对象。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on Indian imports, which includes an additional 25% tariff on products imported from India, making it one of the highest tariffs imposed by the U.S. on any country [3] - India's Ministry of External Affairs has stated that the U.S. actions are "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and India will take necessary actions to protect its national interests [3] - The trade deficit between the U.S. and India was approximately $45 billion last year, with the U.S. importing $87 billion worth of goods from India, including pharmaceuticals and electronics [3] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have stalled due to disagreements over tariffs and non-tariff barriers, despite India making concessions such as not imposing tariffs on U.S. industrial goods [4] - Agriculture and related sectors employ over 45% of India's workforce, making it politically sensitive for Prime Minister Modi to concede to U.S. demands in these areas [4] - Modi emphasized the importance of supporting Indian-made products and maintaining economic vigilance, responding to U.S. criticisms regarding India's economic dependency [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued import of Russian oil [1][2] - The overall tariff on Indian goods entering the U.S. will reach 50% after the new measures take effect [2] - The U.S. government claims that India's purchase of Russian oil supports Russia's military efforts, prompting the tariff increase [2][3] Group 2 - India's Ministry of External Affairs has criticized the U.S. tariffs as unfair and unreasonable, asserting that oil imports are based on market factors for energy security [2] - The U.S. previously encouraged India to import Russian oil to stabilize global energy markets amid the Ukraine conflict [2] - Indian Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which may influence India's diplomatic stance amid U.S. pressures [3][5]

Group 1: US-India Trade Relations - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which is more severe than tariffs on other major trading partners, escalating tensions in US-India relations [1][2] - India's opposition parties criticized Prime Minister Modi's government for failing to protect national interests, highlighting the negative impact on various industries [2] - Modi's government condemned the US measures as political coercion and a violation of WTO rules, leading to formal protests and retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products [2] Group 2: Economic Impact on India - Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) turned net sellers in July, withdrawing ₹177.41 billion from Indian stock markets, marking the first monthly outflow after three months of inflows [5] - The Nifty 50 index has experienced a continuous five-week decline, the longest streak in two years, with the IT sector seeing a 10% drop [5][6] - The Indian rupee has depreciated by 1.2% in the past week, the largest weekly decline since December 2022, and is projected to be one of the weakest currencies in Asia for 2025 [1][6] Group 3: Ongoing Trade Negotiations - Despite US threats regarding oil imports from Russia, India plans to continue purchasing Russian oil, citing long-term contracts [3] - India's government is engaged in trade negotiations with the US but remains firm on key agricultural interests, particularly against dairy imports [2][3] - Upcoming meetings, such as the IMEC conference, may provide opportunities for dialogue, but success depends on both governments' willingness to set aside differences [4]

长江期货贵金属周报 非农不及预期，价格具有支撑 2025/8/4 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 数据来源：ifind 长江期货有色产业服务中心 美国非农就业数据不及预期，前两月就业人数下修，9 月降息预期升温，美黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五， 美黄金报收3416美元/盎司，周内上涨2.3%，关注上方 压力位3460，下方支撑位3360。 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2024/01/02 2024/02/02 2024/03/02 2024/04/02 2024/05/02 2024/06/02 2024/07/02 2024/08/02 2024/09/02 2024/10/02 2024/11/02 2024/12/02 2 ...