Core Insights - The central bank of Indonesia is aligning its interest rate decisions with the anticipated decline in inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 1 - The interest rate decisions are made in accordance with the expected gradual decrease in inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will consider not only current data but also inflation outlook when making interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - The focus on inflation prospects indicates a proactive approach to monetary policy [1] - Current data will still play a significant role in the decision-making process [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State has significant uncertainties, and Thailand has banned the transit transportation of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin mines. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, the tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined, and the electronics industry has entered a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has fluctuated widely, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory has continued to decline. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low - position in the open interest, and the price is adjusting widely within a range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars. - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the main contract open interest for Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,605 tons, down 26 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. - The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that US President Trump's newly announced tariff measures have muddled the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's strongly advocated interest - rate cut policy. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, the effects of the implemented monetary policies will further emerge, and in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, pay close attention to and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]. 3.7重点关注 Today, there is no important news [3].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund's European Department Head, Kammer, suggests that the European Central Bank should maintain the key interest rate at 2% unless new shocks significantly alter the inflation outlook [1] Group 1 - The recommendation to keep the interest rate at 2% indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy in Europe [1] - The emphasis on waiting for substantial changes in the inflation outlook suggests a focus on stability and careful monitoring of economic indicators [1]

Core Viewpoint - The IMF suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain the deposit rate at 2% unless a significant shock alters the inflation outlook [1] Group 1: ECB's Interest Rate Policy - The ECB has reduced the interest rate by two percentage points since June 2024 and has indicated a pause in further cuts [1] - Financial investors anticipate that the ECB may lower the rate to 1.75% later this year [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - IMF's Alfred Kammer states that the inflation risks in the Eurozone are two-sided, supporting the argument for maintaining the current rate [1] - The IMF's inflation forecast for next year is higher than the ECB's expectations, contributing to the differing views between the IMF and market participants [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Simkus highlighted that the inflation outlook remains fragile and emphasized the need to monitor the pace of euro appreciation [1] Group 1 - The ECB is concerned about the current inflation trajectory, indicating that it is still vulnerable [1] - There is a call for vigilance regarding the speed at which the euro is appreciating, suggesting potential implications for the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Simkus stated that the inflation outlook remains fragile [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Simkus emphasized that the inflation forecast is still vulnerable, indicating potential challenges for the economy [1] - The comments suggest that the ECB may need to remain cautious in its monetary policy approach due to ongoing inflation concerns [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The fragile inflation outlook could impact consumer spending and investment decisions across the Eurozone [1] - A sustained period of weak inflation may lead to prolonged low interest rates, affecting banks and financial institutions [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Index futures [1] - **Bearish Outlook**: PTA, PP, soda ash, methanol, polyolefins, rubber [1][2][10] - **Neutral with Upward Bias**: Treasury bonds, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel, polysilicon, iron ore [1][4][5][6][8][10] - **Neutral with Downward Bias**: Lithium carbonate, steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), coking coal, coke, glass [6][8] Core Viewpoints - The market risk appetite has significantly recovered due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, and the A - share market sentiment has been boosted by events such as the parade and the Summer Davos Forum. With the improvement of liquidity, the shock center of the stock index is expected to continue to move up [1]. - The high valuation of treasury bonds has an increasing drag effect, and the bond market is mainly affected by liquidity in the short term, with limited trend drivers [1]. - For precious metals, although the geopolitical risk premium has declined, long - term factors are still favorable for gold prices, and both gold and silver are expected to oscillate at high levels in July [4]. - In the base metals market, supply and demand are intertwined, and most metals are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is still loose, and the rebound drive and space of lithium prices are limited [6]. - The polysilicon market is in a weak state, and the supply - demand pattern continues to be loose [6]. - The steel market is affected by factors such as the decline in furnace material prices and the weakening of demand in the off - season, and the steel price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - The soda ash market has an oversupply situation, while the glass market has stronger support than soda ash, and short - term low - level oscillation is expected [8]. - The oil price may enter an oscillation and repair stage after a short - term sharp decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The demand for methanol and polyolefins is weakening, and prices are under downward pressure [10]. - The cotton market has better fundamentals, and the cotton price is expected to be strongly supported [10]. Summary by Variety Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points and the trading volume increasing to 1.45 trillion yuan. Non - banking finance and power equipment sectors led the rise. Global major stock indexes generally rose, and the stock index futures followed the spot index. With policy support and improved liquidity, the shock center of the stock index is expected to rise [1]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds weakened across the board. The central bank's liquidity operations and high valuations are the main influencing factors. The overseas geopolitical risk has weakened, but uncertainties remain. The central bank has a strong intention to protect liquidity, but there may be a large liquidity gap in July [1]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical risk premium of gold and silver has significantly declined, but long - term factors are still favorable for gold. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver [4]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillates in a range. The supply is tight, but the demand is greatly affected by the macro - environment. The market is waiting for the progress of tariff negotiations [4]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina has an oversupply situation, but the current valuation is low. The Shanghai aluminum has low inventory and supply constraints, which form support for the price [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market has not improved fundamentally, but the downward momentum is weak after the price breaks through the support level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling options [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Due to the decline in cost support, it is advisable to enter new short positions in the PTA2509 contract [2]. - **PP**: As the demand enters the off - season, it is recommended to hold the previous short positions in the PP2509 contract [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the alkali plants are accumulating inventory passively. It is recommended to hold short positions in the soda ash 09 contract or the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8]. Energy and Minerals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by factors such as the decline in furnace material prices and weak demand in the off - season. The iron ore price is expected to run in a narrow range [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal has an oversupply situation, and the coke market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market of coke is approaching the bottom, and the decline of the futures price may slow down [8]. Other Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still loose, and the rebound of the lithium price is restricted [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market is in a weak state, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - **Crude Oil**: After a short - term sharp decline, the oil price may enter an oscillation and repair stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: The demand for methanol is weakening, and the price is expected to return below 2300 yuan for the 09 contract [10]. - **Polyolefins**: The demand for polyolefins is weakening, and the price may return to a weak state and may hit a new low this year [10]. - **Cotton**: The supply of cotton is tightening, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The cotton price is expected to be strongly supported [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the downward pressure on the rubber price is increasing [10].

2025 年 6 月 25 日 原油：不宜追空，或再次转强 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI8 月原油期货收跌 4.14 美元/桶，跌幅 6.04%，报 64.37 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收 跌 4.34 美元/桶，跌幅 6.07%，报 67.14 美元/桶；SC2508 原油期货收跌 51.30 元/桶，跌幅 9.27%， 报 502.30 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 1. 哈萨克斯坦国家石油公司 KazMunayGaz：预计 2025 年腾吉兹油田的原油产量将达 3570 万吨。 2. 特朗普呼吁压低油价，同时鼓励美国能源部加大钻探力度。 3. 俄罗斯六月份的炼油厂产量有望达到今年最高水平。 4. 消息人士：委内瑞拉第二大炼油厂因停电而停产。 5. 市场消息：中东油轮收益跃升至 2023 年以来的最高水平。 6. 日本经济产业大臣武藤容治：如果霍尔木兹海峡局势扰乱供应，可能动用石油库存。 7. 消息人士称，俄罗斯石油公司 Rosneft 将在八月暂停萨哈林-1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates the fragility of the inflation outlook according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazimir [1] Group 1 - The recent economic indicators suggest a weakening inflationary trend in the Eurozone [1]