Economic Overview - The latest "hard data" indicates that the US economy remains resilient, with Q1 GDP showing a private sector annualized growth rate of 3.0% after excluding inventory, government purchases, and trade [2] - The job market is stable, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 138,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [2] - High-frequency data suggests that the impact of tariffs on the US economy is beginning to manifest, but a recession is still distant. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a Q2 annualized growth rate for private consumption of 1.9% and a significant drop in private investment growth to 1.3% [2] Market Sentiment and Currency - During the May Day holiday, the risk appetite in overseas markets improved due to better-than-expected non-farm payrolls and signs of easing trade tensions, leading to a rise in US stocks and a rebound in US Treasury yields [4] - The offshore RMB appreciated rapidly, breaking the 7.20 mark, driven by improved market sentiment [4] - The medium-term outlook for the US dollar shows a decline in its fundamental advantages, with short-term fluctuations dependent on trade negotiations [4] Gold Market - The risk of stagflation in the US is rising, coupled with increased central bank gold purchases, suggesting a bullish fundamental outlook for gold. However, short-term overbought conditions may lead to some price correction [5] Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic demand is under pressure, with retail and catering sales during the May Day holiday increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, surpassing previous holiday performances, while real estate transactions show significant divergence across cities [7] - In April, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities decreased by 12.8% year-on-year, indicating a negative growth trend since November of the previous year [7] - Cross-border tourism has shown strong performance, with international flight numbers increasing by 21.3% year-on-year [8] External Demand and Policy Measures - Overall external demand pressure is evident, but there are signs of recovery in import demand as US importers deplete inventories. Key port throughput has increased since mid-April [8] - The Chinese government is set to implement policies aimed at stabilizing employment, foreign trade, and consumption, with measures expected to roll out in the second quarter [9] - Fiscal measures will accelerate the implementation of the annual budget, focusing on local government bond issuance to support basic livelihood needs [9]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%[1] - The unemployment rate for 2025 is projected to increase from 4.3% to 4.4%[1] - PCE inflation for 2025 has been adjusted upward from 2.5% to 2.7%, while core PCE inflation is raised from 2.5% to 2.8%[1] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed will slow down the balance sheet reduction starting April 1, reducing the cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the pace for agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion[3] - The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) usage has significantly decreased to below $20 billion, indicating a need to slow down the balance sheet reduction[3] Market Reactions - The market responded positively to the Fed's meeting, with a significant drop in the 1-year SOFR OIS indicating a dovish expectation[8] - Powell's dismissal of recession risks and inflation concerns has boosted risk appetite across various asset classes, reminiscent of the "transitory" inflation narrative from 2021[8] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in U.S. inflation, surging oil prices, and possible interventions by the Trump administration in Fed policies[9]

鲍威尔引爆最佳"美联储决议日"。 当地时间周三，在美联储下调今年经济预期，上调通胀预期后，随后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔对经济风险表示"漠视"， 再次抛出 "通胀暂时论" ， 透露 出"坚定"维持现状的立场。 分析认为，其对美国经济风险"漫不经心"的态度对市场情绪产生了重大影响，他似乎在 "特意安抚金融市场" 。 在鲍威尔这种微妙的姿态的推动下，隔夜美国市场罕见股债齐升。 标普500指数、纳指大涨超1%， 标普创下自去年7月以来"美联储决议日"最佳表现 ，2年期美债收益率一度跳水超10个基点，10年期美债收益率跌超4个基 点，刷新日低。 现货金价连续两天盘中创历史新高，鲍威尔新闻发布会期间逼近3052美元。 一句话概括， 除了美元，几乎所有资产类别都录得上涨。 值得注意的是， 鲍威尔的"通胀暂时论"让人联想起美联储对疫情驱动的通胀飙升反应迟缓的记忆。这种策略能否奏效，无疑是当下市场关注的焦点。 鲍威尔在2021年坚持认为通胀只是"暂时性"的，结果证明这是一个代价高昂的误判。当时的通胀不仅没有短暂消退，反而飙升至40年来的最高水平，迫使 美联储在后期不得不大幅加息以控制物价。 而区别是， 这一次鲍威尔更多强调不确定 ...