Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates a more hawkish stance compared to March, with increased internal dissent among officials regarding future rate decisions[2] - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 were downgraded by 30 basis points to 1.4%, while inflation predictions were raised by 30 basis points to 3.0% for PCE and 3.1% for core PCE[2] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Chairman Powell revised the "transitory inflation" narrative, acknowledging the potential for persistent inflation effects and rising inflation expectations[2] - The unemployment rate forecast was increased by 10 basis points to 4.5%, indicating concerns about economic conditions[2] - Private final consumption remains strong at a growth rate of 2.5%, reflecting confidence in employment and economic growth[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. stock markets initially fell but later stabilized, while bond yields rose before slightly retreating[2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July decreased from 14.5% to 10.3%, while the likelihood of a cut in September increased from 54.8% to 60.1%[2] - Risks include potential inflation increases due to tariff negotiations and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[2]

Economic Overview - The latest "hard data" indicates that the US economy remains resilient, with Q1 GDP showing a private sector annualized growth rate of 3.0% after excluding inventory, government purchases, and trade [2] - The job market is stable, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 138,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [2] - High-frequency data suggests that the impact of tariffs on the US economy is beginning to manifest, but a recession is still distant. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a Q2 annualized growth rate for private consumption of 1.9% and a significant drop in private investment growth to 1.3% [2] Market Sentiment and Currency - During the May Day holiday, the risk appetite in overseas markets improved due to better-than-expected non-farm payrolls and signs of easing trade tensions, leading to a rise in US stocks and a rebound in US Treasury yields [4] - The offshore RMB appreciated rapidly, breaking the 7.20 mark, driven by improved market sentiment [4] - The medium-term outlook for the US dollar shows a decline in its fundamental advantages, with short-term fluctuations dependent on trade negotiations [4] Gold Market - The risk of stagflation in the US is rising, coupled with increased central bank gold purchases, suggesting a bullish fundamental outlook for gold. However, short-term overbought conditions may lead to some price correction [5] Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic demand is under pressure, with retail and catering sales during the May Day holiday increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, surpassing previous holiday performances, while real estate transactions show significant divergence across cities [7] - In April, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities decreased by 12.8% year-on-year, indicating a negative growth trend since November of the previous year [7] - Cross-border tourism has shown strong performance, with international flight numbers increasing by 21.3% year-on-year [8] External Demand and Policy Measures - Overall external demand pressure is evident, but there are signs of recovery in import demand as US importers deplete inventories. Key port throughput has increased since mid-April [8] - The Chinese government is set to implement policies aimed at stabilizing employment, foreign trade, and consumption, with measures expected to roll out in the second quarter [9] - Fiscal measures will accelerate the implementation of the annual budget, focusing on local government bond issuance to support basic livelihood needs [9]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%[1] - The unemployment rate for 2025 is projected to increase from 4.3% to 4.4%[1] - PCE inflation for 2025 has been adjusted upward from 2.5% to 2.7%, while core PCE inflation is raised from 2.5% to 2.8%[1] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed will slow down the balance sheet reduction starting April 1, reducing the cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the pace for agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion[3] - The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) usage has significantly decreased to below $20 billion, indicating a need to slow down the balance sheet reduction[3] Market Reactions - The market responded positively to the Fed's meeting, with a significant drop in the 1-year SOFR OIS indicating a dovish expectation[8] - Powell's dismissal of recession risks and inflation concerns has boosted risk appetite across various asset classes, reminiscent of the "transitory" inflation narrative from 2021[8] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in U.S. inflation, surging oil prices, and possible interventions by the Trump administration in Fed policies[9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent statements on market sentiment, particularly his dismissal of economic risks and reiteration of the "transitory" inflation narrative, which has led to a significant market rally across various asset classes [1][2][5]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has lowered its economic growth forecast for the year from 2.1% to 1.7% while raising its inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%, indicating concerns about stagflation [11][12]. - Powell emphasized "uncertainty" in the economic outlook, suggesting that the Fed is leaving room for potential policy shifts [6][12]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, U.S. markets experienced a rare simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gaining over 1%, marking the best performance on a Fed decision day since July of the previous year [3][18]. - Gold prices reached historical highs, approaching $3052 during Powell's press conference [4]. Powell's Stance on Inflation - Powell's reference to "transitory" inflation echoes past Fed responses to pandemic-driven inflation, which were criticized for being slow and costly [6][12]. - He acknowledged the increased risk of recession but maintained that the likelihood of an imminent recession remains low, citing robust economic data [14][15]. Fed's Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the second consecutive meeting without a rate cut [8][9]. - The Fed will slow the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April, a shift from its previous strategy of aggressive asset reduction [9]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts noted that Powell's approach appears to be aimed at calming financial markets, with a focus on economic growth over inflation concerns [19]. - The Fed's current stance suggests a preference for monitoring economic indicators before making further policy adjustments, reflecting a cautious approach to potential tariff impacts on inflation [13][19].