Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [8] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 22.32 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.31% year-on-year [5] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2025 was 20,740 yuan per ton, an increase of 5.96% year-on-year and 2.64% quarter-on-quarter, driven by overseas production cuts and domestic inventory reduction [6] - The company is progressing well with its 1.4 million tons electrolytic aluminum green low-carbon efficiency enhancement project, expected to energize the first batch of electrolytic cells by the end of November 2025 [7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved a revenue of 6.994 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year and a 5.53% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while net profit reached 1.256 billion yuan, up 24.30% year-on-year and 22.41% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.867 billion, 5.633 billion, and 6.672 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.19, 11.40, and 9.62 [8][10] Market Context - The domestic spot price of electrolytic aluminum reached 21,176.67 yuan per ton on October 28, 2025, benefiting the company's revenue and profit [6] - The company is also advancing its alumina project in Indonesia, which has completed environmental assessments and is currently working on port and terminal engineering designs [7]

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation reported a significant increase in net income for Q3 2025, driven by rising domestic aluminum prices, despite facing challenges from tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $2.995 billion, up from $2.904 billion year-over-year [2]. - Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation was $232 million, compared to $90 million in the same period last year, marking a nearly 158% increase [1][2]. - Adjusted net loss was $6 million, down from a profit of $135 million in the previous year [1][2]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $270 million, a decrease from $455 million year-over-year [1][2]. Production and Operations - Alumina production increased by 4% quarter-over-quarter to 2.5 million tons, attributed to reduced maintenance at Australian refineries [2]. - Aluminum segment production rose by 1% to 579,000 tons, mainly due to the successful restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain [2]. - Total alumina shipments remained flat at 2.2 million tons, while aluminum shipments decreased by 3% due to trade volume adjustments [2]. Major Developments - The net income of $232 million included gains from the sale of Ma'aden joint venture interests, offset by restructuring costs [3]. - The company announced a long-term energy contract with the New York Power Authority and plans to invest approximately $60 million in the Massena smelter [3]. - Alcoa received support from the U.S. and Australian governments for the joint development of a gallium plant at the Wagerup refinery [3]. Market Context - U.S. aluminum prices have outpaced international markets, with Midwest premiums soaring 113% since early June, influenced by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][4]. - The company anticipates an additional $50 million increase in tariff costs for Q4 2025, indicating ongoing trade impacts [3]. Future Outlook - Alcoa expects total alumina production to remain between 9.5 million and 9.7 million tons for 2025, with aluminum production projected at 2.3 million to 2.5 million tons [4]. - Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA for the alumina segment is expected to improve by approximately $80 million, while the aluminum segment may face a $20 million adverse impact due to operational inefficiencies [4].

Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The Aluminum Monthly Metal Index (MMI) has remained stable, with a mild increase of 0.5% from September to October, indicating a rising trend in aluminum prices supported by various factors [1] - Following a significant fire at Novelis' Oswego plant, which produces about 40% of the aluminum sheets for the automotive industry, the overall outlook for U.S. aluminum prices has changed, with Midwest premiums reaching a historical high of $0.77 per pound as of October 6 [2][3] - The LME three-month aluminum price increased by 2.61% last month, reaching its highest level since March, reflecting a broader trend of rising prices among other base metals [6] Group 2: Supply Chain Impact - The fire at Novelis has severely weakened U.S. aluminum production capacity, with the plant expected to remain offline until early next year, impacting the automotive supply chain significantly [2] - U.S. aluminum imports have been declining, with a 3.69% decrease in aluminum sheet imports from February to August compared to the same period in 2024, contributing to domestic supply tightness [4] - Overall, aluminum product imports have decreased by 10.17%, indicating that the U.S. remains a net importer of aluminum, necessitating overseas supply to meet demand [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The imposition of tariffs has intensified the impact of supply disruptions on the market, leading buyers to increasingly seek domestic producers for raw materials [5] - Despite the current upward trend in aluminum prices, ongoing inflationary pressures and a softening demand environment may challenge the sustainability of this trend in the coming months [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the industry is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The decline in aluminum ingot inventory indicates a more limited downward adjustment of aluminum prices. In the long - term supply - constrained context, high industry profits do not restrict price increases. Attention should be paid to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected actual consumption during the peak season [7]. - For alumina, the domestic spot market is sluggish with slightly falling prices, and the import window is not open. The increase in warehouse receipt inventory and the easing of supply make it more difficult to squeeze positions. With the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue. The focus is on market tendering [7][8]. - For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton. - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,580 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 25 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,570 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,660 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,530 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,523 lots, and the open interest was 233,902 lots [3]. Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, with a change of - 1,100 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory was 59,890 tons, with a change of - 3,048 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, with no change [3]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3]. Alumina Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,124 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The highest price was 3,179 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 326,961 lots, and the open interest was 185,979 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 21, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,300 tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly output of aluminum rods has been rising from a low level for a month. The social inventory of aluminum rods reached its peak in mid - July, then fluctuated, and started to decline in early August. The aluminum ingot inventory declined on Thursday and is expected to enter the destocking cycle. The micro - data shows a clear transition from the off - season to the peak season [7]. Alumina - The domestic spot market is inactive with slightly falling prices, while the overseas market is relatively active, but the import window is not open. The warehouse receipt inventory has increased to 76,000 tons. With the easing of supply, it is more difficult to squeeze positions. Due to the expected oversupply and high inventory, the price of bauxite is difficult to rise [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 450 yuan/ton. Consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9] 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [10] - Arbitrage: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10]

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) after a strong performance in the first half of 2025, raising the 12-month target price from HKD 22 to HKD 29, supported by an optimistic aluminum price outlook [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao's revenue increased to RMB 81 billion, a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) of alumina and aluminum products, as well as increased sales volume [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 25.7%, while net attributable profit rose by 35% to RMB 12.36 billion, with a net profit margin increase of 3 percentage points to 17% [1][2] Financial Health - China Hongqiao's financial condition is improving, with interest coverage ratio significantly rising to 17.6 times due to optimized debt structure and improved interest rates [2] - Although no interim dividend was declared for the first half of 2025, management expects the annual dividend payout ratio to remain stable at 63% for the fiscal year 2024, leading to an implied dividend yield of 7% based on the projected earnings per share of HKD 2.60 for fiscal year 2025 [2] Market Outlook - DBS Bank anticipates strong aluminum prices to continue through 2026-2027, highlighting China Hongqiao's competitive advantages [2] - Management projects the average selling price for electrolytic aluminum in 2025 to be between RMB 20,600 and RMB 21,300 per ton, and for alumina between RMB 3,200 and RMB 3,300 per ton, indicating a robust price outlook [2] - Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025, outpacing supply growth of 1.8% [2] Competitive Position - Under China's "anti-involution" guidelines, supply control is expected to strengthen, benefiting leading companies like China Hongqiao from rising average prices and market consolidation [3] - China Hongqiao aims to complete the transfer of approximately 2.2 million tons of capacity to Yunnan by the end of fiscal year 2025, representing 34% of total capacity, enhancing its production cost advantages through an integrated supply chain and increased use of green power [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities indicates that aluminum prices are entering an upward channel due to high production levels and low inventory, with positive demand expectations as the peak season approaches [1] Industry Summary - In the short term, Yunnan's production recovery is nearly complete, maintaining high output levels while inventory remains low, leading to an anticipated increase in aluminum prices and expanded profit margins for companies [1] - Continuous favorable policy signals and expectations for demand improvement support a positive outlook for the industry [1] - In the long term, supply constraints in the aluminum industry combined with growth points in demand suggest that the industry may maintain high prosperity levels [1] Company Recommendations - Companies to watch include Yunnan Aluminum Co., Shenhui Co., Tianshan Aluminum, and China Aluminum [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) has seen its stock price rise over 3%, reaching a new high of 22.62 HKD, driven by a significant increase in expected net profit for the first half of the year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 12.36 billion HKD for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of around 35% [1] - The substantial growth in performance is primarily attributed to the rise in aluminum prices compared to the previous year, alongside a decrease in the cost of thermal coal [1] Business Operations - Electrolytic aluminum is the main source of revenue and profit for the company, while alumina is primarily produced for self-use, with some portion sold externally [1]

Group 1 - China Hongqiao (01378) saw its stock price increase over 3%, reaching a new high of 22.62 HKD, with a current trading price of 22.32 HKD and a trading volume of 339 million HKD [1] - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 12.359 billion RMB for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of around 35% [1] - The significant growth in the company's performance is primarily attributed to the year-on-year increase in aluminum prices, coupled with a decrease in the cost of thermal coal [1] Group 2 - According to Guolian Minsheng Securities, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with limited potential for new capacity additions in the future [1] - The demand side is supported by sectors such as the power grid and new energy vehicles, which are expected to show resilience, leading to a gradual emergence of a supply-demand gap in electrolytic aluminum [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced on July 29 that it will strictly control the new production capacity of alumina, indicating a potential slowdown in the pace of new capacity coming online, which may improve the current overcapacity situation [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao Group (01378) has released a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit increase of approximately 35% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, driven by rising aluminum product prices and increased sales volumes [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, China Hongqiao's net profit reached 10.008 billion RMB, representing a significant increase of 236.7% compared to the same period in 2023 [1] - Following the profit announcement, the company's stock price opened high and reached a historical peak of 17.28 HKD, reflecting an increase of 8.68% [1] Group 2: Aluminum Price Trends - As of June 20, the LME aluminum spot price was 2,529 USD/ton, up 44 USD/ton week-on-week, and increased by 84 USD/ton year-on-year, indicating a 3.4% rise [2] - The average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River region was 20,700 RMB/ton, which is 280 RMB/ton higher than the same period last year, marking a 1.4% increase [2] - The low inventory levels of electrolytic aluminum, at 3.66 days as of June 20, have provided strong support for aluminum prices [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, leading to a lack of supply elasticity, while demand continues to benefit from the rapid development of the new energy sector, creating a long-term mismatch between supply and demand [5] - The price of alumina has shown volatility due to supply disruptions from Guinea and domestic production cuts, with expectations of continued tight supply [6] Group 4: Cost Management - The decline in energy prices, particularly coal, is expected to positively impact China Hongqiao's cost control. The average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port was 703 RMB/ton in the first five months of this year, down 169 RMB/ton from the average of 872 RMB/ton last year [6] Group 5: Future Growth Prospects - The company is expected to see further profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment due to low inventory levels and favorable cost conditions [7] - The Guinea Simandou iron ore project, in which China Hongqiao has a stake, is set to commence production by the end of this year, potentially contributing significant incremental earnings [7] - Ongoing asset restructuring is anticipated to enhance the company's market influence and investment appeal, with a transaction value of approximately 63.518 billion RMB for acquiring 100% of Hongtu Industrial [7] Group 6: Dividend Policy - China Hongqiao has increased its dividend payouts, with expected distributions of 0.51 HKD, 0.63 HKD, and 1.61 HKD per share for the years 2022-2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [8]

Macro Factors - The US-China trade war shows significant signs of easing, with important consensus reached during the Geneva trade talks in early May, establishing a normalized economic consultation mechanism [3] - Recent economic and financial data in China shows marginal improvement, with retail sales growing by 6.4% year-on-year in May, and industrial added value increasing by 5.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery phase [4] Oil Price Impact - Since early May, international oil prices have rebounded from around $55, influenced by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, reaching new highs not seen since July of the previous year [5] - Historical trends indicate a strong positive correlation between oil prices and aluminum prices, as fluctuations in oil prices affect the energy costs associated with aluminum production [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic bauxite production in May reached 5.3664 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5.31% and a year-on-year increase of 8.97%, while imports of bauxite hit a historical high [8] - Despite weak overall real estate data, other sectors such as automotive and cable industries are providing incremental demand, with domestic automobile production increasing by 11.3% year-on-year in May [10] - Both domestic and international aluminum inventories are on a downward trend, with domestic social inventory decreasing by nearly 50% since mid-March, indicating a tightening supply situation [10]