Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The market remains cautious, and the black commodities continue to show weakness. Steel prices are running weakly, iron ore prices are fluctuating narrowly, coking coal and coke prices are oscillating downward, and thermal coal prices are stabilizing. The future trends of these commodities depend on factors such as supply - side policies, consumption situations, and tariff policies [1][3][5][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: On the previous day, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The rebar main contract 2510 closed at 3058 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2510 closed at 3202 yuan/ton. The trading in the futures market was average, and the overall spot market transactions were relatively weak with steel prices continuing to decline [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials improved month - on - month. However, considering the good profits of long - process production, the building material output remained stable. With the flood season in the southern region, the consumption of building materials will gradually decline. The output of plates decreased, consumption remained high, and inventory continued to decline. Although exports are resilient, high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on exports in the future [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be based on oscillations; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: On the previous day, the iron ore futures oscillated. The main 2509 contract rose 0.28%, and the closing price was basically the same as the previous day. The port spot price index of iron ore increased, and the forward market was active. The cumulative transactions of main ports and forward spot iron ore increased month - on - month [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipments increased this period, and the molten iron output oscillated at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remained relatively high, but there was no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, and the timing of the shift to a loose situation depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be based on oscillations; no strategies for inter - variety or inter - period trading are provided [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: On the previous day, the double - coking futures oscillated downward. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, and the coking coal transactions were sluggish. The pit - mouth coal price of coking coal continued to decline, and the import coal market was in a poor situation with price inversion and reduced liquidity [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, the supply is relatively stable, high molten iron output ensures consumption intensity, and inventory is at a medium - high level with limited supply - demand contradictions. The short - term decline in coal prices and the implementation of the first - round coke price cuts have a downward drag on coke. For coking coal, as coal prices fall, the supply increases, and the demand maintains resilience with high - level stable inventory. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of coking coal weakens [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal should be traded with a weak - oscillation strategy; coke should be traded with an oscillation strategy; no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, the decline in port prices slowed down, the pit - mouth coal price oscillated weakly, and the market sentiment eased slightly. In the ports, the market continued to be weak, the inquiry demand increased, and the decline in quotes narrowed. The import coal market was running weakly, with the tender price continuing to decline and low procurement enthusiasm [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In the short term, the demand for thermal coal lacks support, and as the weather warms up, the price support is obvious. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [8]. - **Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal: Sideways to Weak [7] - Coke: Sideways [7] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy [8] Group 2: Core Views - The market is relatively cautious, and the black market is oscillating weakly. The macro - expectation is weak, and steel prices are oscillating. Iron ore market sentiment is cautious, and ore prices are oscillating. Coking coal and coke prices are showing different trends, with coking coal being sideways to weak and coke being sideways. Thermal coal port inventory is continuously accumulating, and pit - mouth coal prices are weakly operating [1][3][5][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The rebar main contract 2510 closed at 3069 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2510 closed at 3207 yuan/ton. The futures market trading was average, and the spot market overall transaction was generally weak, with steel prices continuously falling [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials improved month - on - month. However, considering the good long - process profits, the building materials output remained stable. With the arrival of the main flood season in the southern region, building materials consumption will gradually decline. The output of plates decreased, consumption remained high, and inventory continued to decline. Exports were resilient due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market, but high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on future exports [1] - Strategy: Unilateral: Sideways; Others: None [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures market oscillated weakly. As of the close, the main 2509 contract of iron ore fell 0.89%. The spot price index of iron ore ports decreased, and the market trading sentiment was average. The global iron ore shipment volume this period increased significantly compared with last week, with a total global shipment of 3348 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 ports this period was 2271 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The cumulative transactions of iron ore at major ports and forward spot transactions both increased month - on - month [3] - Comprehensive View: The iron ore shipment recovered this period. The molten iron output oscillated at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remained relatively high, but there was no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market still shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, but when the reality turns to looseness depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies [3] - Strategy: Unilateral: Sideways; Others: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - Market Analysis: The trading of coking coal was sluggish, and the online auction failure rate was high. The price of imported Mongolian coal continued to fall with the decline of the futures market and the implementation of coke price cuts [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: With the decline of coal prices, the cost - effectiveness of domestic coal and Mongolian coal became prominent, and supply increased. Against the background of high molten iron output, coking coal demand remained resilient, and inventory remained stable at a high level. In the short term, the supply - demand of coking coal weakened, and prices continued to fall due to the implementation of the first - round coke price cut, pessimistic expectations, and the off - season of thermal coal [6] - Strategy: Sideways to Weak [7] Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures market oscillated downward. The first - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a decline of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [5] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Currently, coke supply is relatively stable. High molten iron output ensures the consumption intensity of coke, and inventory remains at a medium - high level. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited. In the short term, the decline of coal prices and the implementation of the first - round coke price cut have a downward drag on coke prices [6] - Strategy: Sideways [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, the decline of port prices slowed down, and pit - mouth coal prices oscillated weakly. The market sentiment slightly improved. The number of coal - pulling trucks in a few coal mines increased, and inventory pressure eased, with prices temporarily stable. However, some terminals and large station customers were still pressing prices, and most traders were still pessimistic and cautious. In the port market, the situation remained weak, and port inventory was at a high level. With the decline of power plant daily consumption in the off - season, downstream inventory continued to accumulate. The imported coal market was operating weakly and steadily. With the continuous decline of domestic prices, the bid price of imported coal continued to fall, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high [8] - Demand and Logic: In the short term, the demand support for coal prices is insufficient, and prices lack obvious support with the warming weather. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [8] - Strategy: None [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] 2. Core Views - The market contradictions are insufficient, and the ore price is weakly oscillating. The spot trading of glass and soda ash is weak and stable, with their futures opening high and closing low. The cost center of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has shifted downwards, and their prices have reached new lows [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures oscillated weakly after opening higher. The overall spot market trading was weak and stable, showing improvement compared to the holiday [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There were both ignition and water - release production lines recently. With ignition production lines not yet delivering goods, the supply pressure may be slightly relieved, and glass inventory decreased slightly. However, due to insufficient recovery of real - estate and deep - processing demand, the restocking intensity and sustainability were weak, and prices lacked upward momentum. In the later high - temperature and rainy season, it is not conducive to glass storage, so enterprises' intention to reduce inventory through sales may be stronger [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures oscillated weakly after opening higher. The market demand was average, mainly for rigid - need procurement. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in North China and Central China decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, the soda ash production has been steadily increasing, maintaining a loose state. Demand is relatively stable, with restocking at low prices. The growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, and the room for increasing soda ash demand is limited. The pressure to reduce inventory is still large. It is expected that soda ash plants will intermittently reduce production for maintenance to relieve the inventory accumulation pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: As market sentiment further weakened, the silicomanganese futures oscillated downward, and the price reached a new low recently. The spot market of silicomanganese was running weakly. Factories basically stopped quoting prices and adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was also 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continued to decline. The molten iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for silicomanganese was resilient. Since the silicomanganese production capacity was sufficient, once the profit improved, the production could increase rapidly. Considering that the port inventory of manganese ore was in the stage of rising from a low level, it still provided some support for alloy costs. The near - month contract was continuously suppressed by warehouse receipts [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: The ferrosilicon futures led the decline in the black - goods sector, showing overall weakness, and the price reached a new low recently. The spot market of ferrosilicon was running weakly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 6050 - 6100 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Although the demand remained strong, the ferrosilicon production still declined under the condition of losses. The manufacturers' inventory decreased from a high level, and the downstream enterprises' inventory remained at a low level. Due to the relatively loose ferrosilicon production capacity, the price would still be suppressed by high inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of industrial policies on the black - goods sector in the future [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory [4]