记者 欧阳晓红 当2025年最后一个"超级央行周"来临，市场开始重新思考一个问题：当日元不再"免费"、美元不再"泛滥"，远期故事的溢价，是否终将要用盈利来兑现？ 一个并不"缺钱"的市场，正在尝试重新给"时间"定价。 2025年12月18日，欧洲央行与英国央行将公布利率决议；12月19日，日本央行将公布政策决定。 前奏已经响起。12月15日，国际市场盘面率先上演了一场耐人寻味的"全球流动性变奏"。 一边是美债收益率回落、美元走弱，似乎在暗示流动性边际缓和；另一边却是日元走强、日股走弱、加密资产回撤更深，风险偏好同步收缩。 值得注意的是，全球盘面并未呈现出"全面risk-off（规避风险）"的典型特征。美股三大指数收跌的当日，标普消费ETF（交易型开放式指数证券投资基金） 逆市走强。 次日，全球市场延续调整。美债利率继续下行，风险资产进一步回撤，恐慌指数（VIX）抬头，但部分消费、价值与防御型资产表现相对抗跌，甚至上涨。 "催化剂或许终于出现。"资管巨头景顺（Invesco）首席全球市场策略师Brian Levitt指出，近期市场表现似乎印证了"形势正在发生变化"的判断。其核心逻辑 在于，估值较低的领域（如价值股 ...

转自：CSDN（ID：CSDNnews） 对于 AI 工具，有人爱，也有人讨厌。 近日，自由软件之父 Richard Stallman（ 理查德·斯托曼 ） 在个人网站上发表一篇《不使用 ChatGPT 的理由》的文章，直言现在的 AI 工具并非真 正的智能，它们根本不理解自己生成内容的意义。他甚至将 ChatGPT 称为" 胡扯生成器 "，理由是它生成的内容"对真相毫不在意"。 值得一提的是，Richard Stallman 是 GNU 计划与自由软件基金会（FSF）的创始人。他在 1980 年代发起 GNU 项目，旨在构建一个完全自由的操 作系统，并推动软件应当被自由使用、研究、修改和再发布的理念。他最广为人知的贡献包括 Emacs 编辑器、GNU 编译器套件（GCC）等基础工 具，以及对 GPL 等自由软件许可证的设计和推广。 他发表的言论，也引发了不小的争议。 ChatGPT 并非真正的智能？ ChatGPT 并不是"智能"，所以请不要称它为"AI"。 我对"智能"的定义是能够认识或理解事物，至少在某个领域内应如此。而 ChatGPT 无法认识或理解任何事物，所以它不是智能。它并不知道自己的输 出意味 ...

Joining us with his take is JP Morgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist David Kelly. Let's start with jobs. Uh weakest we've seen, I guess, in four years.What do you mean. What does that look like coming into the new year then. >> Well, it is pretty weak.Of course, there are lots of gaps in the data and there questions about the quality of the data, but the bottom line is highest unemployment rate in over four years and the lowest year-over-year wage growth in four years. And you know, one of the thi ...

2025年11月，华盛顿收到一份"噩耗"。那把曾死死卡住中国芯片咽喉的EDA（电子设计自动化）枷锁， 断了。 曾经，美国三巨头在华坐拥95%的份额，躺着收过路费。如今，国产EDA不仅暴力撕开20%的市场缺 口，更反手砸出3.4亿元，把欧洲硅光技术"买"回了家。 美国人想用软件封杀中国算力，结果却亲手逼出了一个"全产业链突围"的复仇者。 被逼出来的"反向收割"：从被动挨打到资本猎杀 以前，中国做芯片的，命门全捏在美国人手里。EDA软件一断供，芯片设计图就是废纸一张。 2022年8月，美国又出狠招，对中国断供GAAFET（全环绕栅极场效应晶体管）的关键EDA工具，摆明 了是要把中国锁死在3纳米的大门外。 但这招"绝户计"，失效了。 中国人的反应不是求饶，是"人海战术"加"资本突袭"。 2025年，中国EDA赛道上挤满了160多家企业。这哪里是搞研发？这是搞"狼群战术"。 2025 年 8 月 12 日，中国EDA头部企业广立微正式宣布完成对比利时硅光设计自动化（PDA）企业 Luceda Photonics的全资收购。这家公司是全球硅光EDA领域的隐形冠军，技术积淀极深。 这一招太狠了。美国人封锁技术，中国人直接 ...

（来源：杨门灼见） 《日经亚洲》报道称"中国正试图主导全球电信市场"，美日英加澳这些所谓的"民主阵营国家"，希望共同推进Open RAN，也就是"开放无线接入网"，来 对抗中国在该领域的影响力。 说白了，就是在电信领域竞争不过中国了，于是这5个国家打算组成一个"小圈子"，通过整合多家厂商的设备，建设低成本的电信设施，然后再来跟中国 竞争。 不得不说，西方国家的规矩是专门给别人立的，轮到自己这里了，也不顾什么"自由贸易"和"公平竞争"了。 日本终于等来了帮手？一场闭门会议将在东京召开，"五国联盟"齐上阵，想要给中方"立规矩"。 "电信五眼联盟"——日本、美国、英国、加拿大和澳大利亚 中日风波还未平息，一些国家就开始跟日本勾勾搭搭，而且这次目标还是冲着中国来的。 接下来几天，"电信五眼联盟"巨头——美国、英国、日本、澳大利亚和加拿大，将在东京举行一场闭门会议。 这还是自五国成立"全球电信联盟"以来，首次将在日本举行面对面会议。 放在当前的地区局势中来看，很显然有着特殊含义： 首先就是表明，美英加澳跟日本站在一起，至少在电信领域，五国有着共同利益，可以暂时结成"同盟关系"。 其次就是强调，美西方有制定游戏规则的权力 ...

新京报讯（记者周慧晓婉）电影《阿凡达：火与烬》（阿凡达3）即将在12月19日上映。12月8日，在影 片举行的中国首映礼上，《阿凡达》系列的缔造者、导演詹姆斯·卡梅隆携《阿凡达》系列女主角佐伊· 索尔达娜首次莅临中国海南。12月9日，詹姆斯·卡梅隆在《阿凡达3》导演大师班上表示，AI可以用来 做一些事，但永远替代不了人类的创作，"AI能做出一个跟《阿凡达》差不多的电影，但在《阿凡达》 上映前，它是做不出来的。" 《阿凡达3》几位中文配音演员与导演及主演在首映礼合影。 对于不少影迷来说，卡梅隆的名字就是技术和视觉的保证。《阿凡达3》是否使用了AI也成为观众关心 的问题。对此，卡梅隆在影片上映前通过媒体公开表示："我对'生成式人工智能'并不持否定态度，但 我们不会在《阿凡达》电影中使用到这种技术。我们尊重演员，不会用人工智能来取代他们。"大师班 现场，卡梅隆再次谈到对AI的看法，他赞同技术的革新，但AI永远替代不了人类的创作，"AI能做出一 个跟《阿凡达》差不多的电影，但在《阿凡达》上映前，它是做不出来的"。 卡梅隆还提到了影院的重要性，他认为，流媒体的便捷改变了人们的消费习惯，但影院提供了家庭观影 无法替代的沉浸 ...

Core Insights - Walmart is developing its private label "Wojixian" as a response to the declining image of its high-end membership store Sam's Club, indicating a strategic shift in its retail approach [1][2] - The competition in the retail market is intensifying, with traditional retailers like Walmart and RT-Mart facing pressure from e-commerce and emerging players [1][4] Group 1: Walmart's Strategy - Walmart's "Wojixian" brand focuses on affordability and health, with products prominently displayed at low price points [2][3] - The company is adopting a strategy similar to RT-Mart, which is also enhancing its private label offerings, emphasizing low prices and health attributes [2][3] - The shift towards private labels is seen as a necessary response to market competition and performance pressures, as evidenced by declining revenues and profits reported by RT-Mart's parent company [3][4] Group 2: Market Competition - New retail players like Hema and Dingdong Maicai have established their private labels as core competitive advantages, launching various products since 2017 [4][5] - The self-owned brand strategy is crucial for retailers to attract customers and improve profit margins by defining product standards and reducing intermediary costs [4][5] - The competition for quality suppliers is intensifying as traditional retailers ramp up their private label initiatives, with companies like Dingdong Maicai investing in direct sourcing and partnerships [5][6] Group 3: Supply Chain and Brand Development - The success of private labels relies heavily on effective supply chain management and the ability to create strong brand value [5][6] - Walmart is currently focusing on supplier selection and has a rigorous evaluation process for potential suppliers, which limits the number of partnerships [6] - The retail landscape is evolving, with established players like Walmart actively learning from newer competitors to enhance their product offerings and market positioning [6]

图片来源： a16z 本次访谈于 2025 年 11 月 11 日播出。 Grant Lee 是 AI 演示文稿平台 Gamma 联合创始人兼 CEO 。曾任职于 Optimizely ，拥有金融与咨询背景。他带领 Gamma 在短短几年内突破 1 亿 美元 ARR 和近 1 亿用户，成功重塑了视觉叙事体验，是 SaaS 领域极具洞察力的产品领袖。本次访谈由 a16z 团队发起，对 话 Gamma 创始人 Grant Lee 。双方在 Gamma 3.0 发布之际，深度探讨了从 0 到 1 亿用户的增长策略、产品演变逻辑及 AI 时代的企业建设心法。 Z Highlights 从冷场开始的独角兽之旅 Sarah Wang: 感谢你的到来， Grant 。你是目前最成功的 AI 应用之一的联合创始人兼领导者。你们已经突破了 1 亿美元的 ARR 。你们正在接近 1 亿用 户。我们要聊聊你们最近所有的产品发布、向企业级市场的扩张，或许还要退一步，聊聊建立 Gamma 这家公司本身的过程。也许我们就以此为切入点， 把时间倒回到五年前，也就是 2020 年你和你的联合创始人创办 Gamma 的时候。自那以后显然发生了 ...

Core Viewpoint - Google supply chain concept stocks have seen active trading this week, with several stocks reaching historical highs, driven by advancements in Google's AI technology and increased institutional investment in Alphabet [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - This week, the trading volume of Zhongji Xuchuang reached 115.72 billion yuan, making it the only stock in the A-share market to exceed 100 billion yuan in trading volume [1]. - A total of 42 stocks reached historical highs this week, with 1,013 stocks achieving this milestone since the beginning of the year until November 28 [1]. - The sectors with the most stocks reaching historical highs include electronics (8 stocks), machinery (6 stocks), and power equipment (4 stocks) [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shown signs of decline, as the number of stocks reaching historical highs has gradually decreased throughout November [1]. - The stocks with the highest trading volumes among the 42 include Zhongji Xuchuang, Saiwei Electronics, Guangku Technology, Yidian Tianxia, and Changying Precision, with trading volumes of 115.72 billion yuan, 39.72 billion yuan, 29.33 billion yuan, 28.40 billion yuan, and 26.85 billion yuan respectively [1]. Group 3: Institutional Investment - Institutional investors attribute the rise in Google concept stocks to multiple factors, including breakthroughs in Google's AI technology, expansion of cloud services, and increased holdings of Alphabet by well-known institutions [5]. - Notably, Berkshire Hathaway purchased Alphabet shares for the first time in Q3, with a holding value of approximately 4.34 billion USD, making it the tenth largest holding in Berkshire's portfolio [5]. Group 4: Stock Price Movements - Among the 42 stocks, 9 have stock prices exceeding 100 yuan, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading at 514.5 yuan per share, followed by Haooubo at 199.9 yuan, and Tengjing Technology at 176 yuan [7]. - The stocks with the highest price increases this week include Pingao Co., Jinfu Technology, Yunzhu Technology, Aerospace Huan Yu, and Haike Xinyuan, with increases of 66.93%, 61.07%, 60.35%, 53.33%, and 48.64% respectively [6].

Core Insights - The securities industry reported strong growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with 42 listed brokerages achieving a revenue increase of over 42% year-on-year and a net profit growth of over 62% [1][2] - However, the asset management (AM) sector lagged significantly, with a mere growth rate of 2.43%, indicating deeper industry concerns and challenges [1][2] Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the 42 listed brokerages reached 419.56 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 42.55% [2] - The self-operated business accounted for 44.54% of total revenue, while brokerage services contributed 26.64%, together making up over 70% of the revenue [2] - The AM business's growth was starkly contrasted by other sectors, with brokerage services leading at a 74.64% growth rate, followed by interest and self-operated businesses at 54.52% and 43.83%, respectively [2] Institutional Performance - The top three firms in AM revenue were CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Guotai Junan, with revenues of 8.703 billion yuan, 5.661 billion yuan, and 4.273 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Only 14 out of the 42 listed brokerages reported positive growth in their AM business, indicating a significant divide within the industry [3] Challenges in Asset Management - The AM sector faces dual pressures from scale and profitability, with existing large collective products undergoing a standardization transformation, impacting management scale and revenue [4] - Intense competition from public funds and bank wealth management subsidiaries further constrains the AM sector, which is still developing its active management capabilities [4] - The decline in interest rates and frequent credit risks have limited the supply of high-yield assets, challenging previous investment strategies reliant on high returns [4] Strategic Shifts - A notable trend has emerged where brokerages are withdrawing their applications for public fund licenses, contrasting sharply with the previous rush to apply [5][6] - This withdrawal is seen as a rational choice based on a deep assessment of resources, market conditions, and profit models, signaling a shift from a "license-driven" to a "capability-driven" model [6] - The consensus is forming that public fund licenses are not a panacea, with private fund operations emphasizing professional services and customized solutions becoming more appealing for certain brokerages [6] Recovery in Private Asset Management - Despite the withdrawal from public fund applications, the private asset management sector is experiencing a resurgence, with the scale of private fund products reaching 5.73 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 270 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [7] - The growth in private fund product registrations indicates the necessity for differentiated strategies, focusing on multi-asset allocation and innovative strategies [7] Future Growth Drivers - Future growth in the AM sector is expected to be driven by two main factors: the completion of public fund transformations leading to secondary growth, and the stabilization and differentiation of private asset management offerings [8] - The focus will likely shift towards low-volatility, high-liquidity products, as well as alternative investments and cross-border allocations [8] Competitive Dynamics - Successful firms like Changcheng Securities and Guojin Securities have achieved over 30% growth by upgrading their "fixed income plus" strategies and integrating financial technology into their operations [9] - The emphasis is on a diversified product matrix and precise timing in investment strategies to capture macro opportunities [9][10] - The integration of AI technology into research and decision-making processes is becoming a core competitive advantage for asset management firms [10]