PDH利润
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LPG早报-20251106
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 00:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly. However, the downward trend of CP official prices may limit the upward momentum of prices, despite the positive impact of the settlement of Sino - US tariffs on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Daily price changes**: In the civil gas market, prices in East China were 4341 (+26), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4390 (+0). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4610 (-90). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 110 (+38), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 76 (-4). FEI was 494 (-10) and CP was 466 (-12) dollars per ton [1] - **IPG contract situation**: The main IPG contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279. Shandong's price was 4300 (-60), East China's was 4279 (+0), South China's was 4400 (-5), and Shandong's ether - post - carbon four was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 (+1778) [1] External Market and Spread - **External market price changes**: External market prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio declined. The FEI month spread was - 5 (-1.75) dollars, and the CP month spread was - 14.4 (-6.4) dollars. The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP spread was 133 (-18.6), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The FEI - CP spread was 35.75 (+0.75). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). The latest FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Profit and Demand - **Profit situation**: PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little [1] - **Supply, demand and inventory**: Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded. However, there was an expected increase in chemical demand. The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production, and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1]
LPG早报-20251105
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:23
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly, but the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in CP official prices despite the positive impact of the China - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Data - **Daily Changes in Civil Gas and Ether - After Carbon Four**: On Tuesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4315 (+18), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4390 (-5). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4700 (+20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 76 (+90), and the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 96 (+18). FEI was 503 (-15) and CP was 471 (-11) dollars/ton [1] - **IPG Main Contract Data**: The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279. Shandong was 4300 (-60), East China 4279 (+0), South China 4400 (-5), and Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 hands (+1778) [1] - **External Market and Related Price Data**: External market prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio declined. The FEI monthly spread was - 5 dollars (-1.75), and the CP monthly spread was - 14.4 dollars (-6.4). The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The East China propane arrival discount was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Industry Conditions - **Profit and Inventory**: PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little. Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand [1] - **Operating Rate and Equipment Status**: The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhu will undergo maintenance, while Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1]
丙烯日报:外盘丙烷价格回升,PDH利润缩窄-20251104
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 05:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short - term weak and volatile [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The peak of device maintenance has passed. Although there is a phased reduction in supply, the supply remains loose. Demand is mainly rigid, and it is difficult to see significant improvement. International oil prices have risen slightly, and the rise in the price of external propane has increased cost support and narrowed PDH profits. The supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remain loose, and attention should be paid to the impact of the cost side and the registration of warehouse receipts in South China [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis data includes the closing price of the main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract price, East China market price, and Shandong market price [5][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on propylene production profit and capacity utilization include the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [15][17][18] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Data on propylene import and export profit include the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on propylene downstream profit and capacity utilization include the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory data includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [65]
LPG早报-20251104
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 00:58
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly. However, the decline in CP official prices may limit the upward momentum of prices, despite the positive impact of the Sino - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price Changes - On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4297 (+18), in Shandong 4360 (+60), and in South China 4395 (-5). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4680 (+260). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 4 (+57), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 100 (+24). FEI was 518 (+1), and CP was 483 (-5) dollars/ton [1] - The main contract of IPG fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4279. The price in Shandong was 4300 (-60), in East China 4279 (+0), and in South China 4400 (-5). The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 (+1778) [1] - The outer - market price increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The FEI month spread was - 5 (-1.75) dollars, and the CP month spread was - 14.4 (-6.4) dollars. The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18); PG - FEI was 97 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The arrival cost of propane in East China was 85 (+6) [1] Device Profits and Operating Rates - PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little [1] - The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhuahua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production, and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1] Inventory and Demand - Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventory rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand [1]
LPG早报-20251103
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 02:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The IPG main contract fluctuated upward with an expected improvement in the domestic trading atmosphere and a possible slight price increase, but the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in CP official prices despite the positive impact of the Sino - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] - PDH profit slightly decreased, alkylation unit profit significantly declined, and MTBE production gross profit changed little [1] - Domestic production decreased, imports increased, port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected growth in chemical demand [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Data Price Data - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4279 (-6), in Shandong was 4300 (+20), and in South China was 4400 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4420 (+50). The lowest delivery location was Shandong with a basis of - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33) [1] - **External Market Prices**: FEI was 508 (-4), CP was 472.6 (-1.7) dollars/ton. FEI month spread was - 5 dollars (-1.75), CP month spread was - 14.4 dollars (-6.4). The 11 - month CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The internal and external PG - CP was 133 (-18.6). The FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The East China propane arrival discount was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). The FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Inventory and Production Data - **Port Inventory**: Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded [1] - **PDH开工率**: The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhuahua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1] Warehouse Receipt Data - The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 lots (+1778), including 2300 from Wanhua, 1628 (+1628) from Jingbo, 150 (+150) from Ouhua, 64 from Yunda, and 52 from Haiyu Petrochemical [1]
LPG早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly, while the PG main contract fluctuated upward. With no pressure on inventory and increased downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. However, propane is still greatly affected by Sino - US tariff policies, so cautious participation is recommended [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: Civil LPG prices in some regions showed small rebounds in decline. In the East China region, the price was 4285 (+11), in Shandong it was 4280 (+10), and in South China it was 4400 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4370 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. The daily spread was 27 (+69), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 82 (-5). The CP official price was announced slightly higher than expected, with propane and butane at 475 (-20) and 460 (-15) respectively. The FEI price increased to 513.62 (+1.62) dollars/ton [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The domestic civil LPG price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable product was East China civil LPG at 4279 (-66); Shandong was 4360 (+160), and South China was 4405 (-55). The number of warehouse receipts was 2416 lots, with 2300 from Wanhua, 64 more from Yunda, and 52 more from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas market price increased significantly [1]. Market Indicators - **Basis and Month Spreads**: The basis was - 69 (-49), the 11 - 12 month spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 113 (-1) [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows and Spreads**: The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China arrival discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPI spread narrowed but the switching window was still open. The latest value was - 82.5 (-11.5). The PG - CP spread was 114 (-17); the PG - FEI spread was 79 (-33). The FEI - CP spread was 35 (+15) [1]. Industry Conditions - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The profit of PDH decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but the second - phase of Zhongjing shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume production [1]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The arrival volume was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventories and factory warehouses decreased. Chemical demand provided support, and the expectation of combustion demand improved [1].
LPG早报-20251030
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PG main contract fluctuates upward. The basis is -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread is 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread is 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices have dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); Shandong is at 4360 (+160), and South China is at 4405 (-55). [4] - Outer - market prices have risen sharply; FEI spread is -6.25 USD (+3.75), CP spread is -8 USD (-4). PG - CP reaches 114 (-17); PG - FEI reaches 79 (-33). FEI - CP reaches 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window is open. [4] - PDH profit declines. Arrivals are at a low level, external supply decreases, and both port and factory inventories have decreased; chemical demand provides support, and the expectation of combustion demand is warming up. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the decline of civil gas continued. East China was at 4274 (+0), Shandong at 4270 (+10), and South China at 4400 (+0). Ether - post carbon four was at 4370 (-30). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -109 (-27), the 11 - 12 spread of 74 (+15), and the 12 - 01 spread of 87 (-17). FEI and CP increased to 512 (+11) and 466 (+4) USD/ton respectively. [4] Weekly Views - The PG main contract fluctuates upward. The basis, spreads, domestic civil gas prices, outer - market prices, spreads between different benchmarks, and the status of arbitrage windows have changed as described above. [4] - PDH operating rate is 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II has shut down again. Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume next week. [4] - Overall, with no pressure on inventory and increased downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. Propane is still greatly affected by the China - US tariff policy. [4]
LPG早报-20251028
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 01:38
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upwards. The basis was -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread was 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66), Shandong at 4360 (+160), and South China at 4405 (-55). With no pressure on inventory and an increase in downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. Propane is still greatly affected by the Sino - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended. [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Daily Changes - On Monday, the decline of civil gas continued. In East China, it was 4282 (+3), in Shandong 4270 (-90), and in South China 4410 (+5). Ether - after carbon four was 4430 (-40). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -83 (-14), the 11 - 12 spread was 80 (-10), and the 12 - 01 spread was 106 (+1). FEI and CP increased to 495 (+3) and 458 (+4) dollars/ton respectively. [4] Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upwards. The basis was -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread was 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66), Shandong at 4360 (+160), and South China at 4405 (-55). There were 2416 lots of warehouse receipts, including 2300 from Wanhua, an increase of 64 from Yunda, and an increase of 52 from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas market prices rose sharply. The FEI spread was -6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP spread was -8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP reached 114 (-17), PG - FEI reached 79 (-33), and FEI - CP reached 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China CIF discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, at -82.5 (-11.5). PDH profit decreased. The arrival volume was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased. Supported by chemical demand and with the expectation of a recovery in combustion demand, the PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II shut down again. Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume next week. [4]
LPG早报-20251027
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 00:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic civil gas price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas. The warehouse receipt was 2416 lots. The overseas price soared. The PDH profit decreased. The arrival was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased. With chemical demand support and the expectation of warming combustion demand, it is expected that the spot will maintain a slight increase. Propane is still greatly affected by the Sino - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, civil gas continued to rebound slightly. East China was 4279 (+12), Shandong was 4360 (+20), and South China was 4405 (+5). Ether - after carbon four was 4470 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 94 (-45), and the November - December spread was 68 (-52). FEI and CP increased, reaching 492 (+6) and 455 (+1) US dollars per ton respectively [4] 3.2 Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 69 (-49), the November - December spread was 90 (-47), and the December - January spread was 113 (-1). The domestic civil gas price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); Shandong was 4360 (+160), and South China was 4405 (-55). There were 2416 lots of warehouse receipts, including 2300 from Wanhua, 64 more from Yunda, and 52 more from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas price soared; the FEI monthly spread was - 6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP monthly spread was - 8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP reached 114 (-17); PG - FEI reached 79 (-33). FEI - CP reached 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China arrival discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, with the latest at - 82.5 (-11.5). The PDH profit decreased. The arrival was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased; supported by chemical demand and with the expectation of warming combustion demand. The PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume. Overall, there is no pressure on inventory, the downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and it is expected that the spot will maintain a slight increase [4]
LPG早报-20251017
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 00:56
Group 1: Report's Core View - The PDH profit improvement may lead to increased demand for CP cargo purchases. One can focus on narrowing the PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of the low - opening of the end - of - month CP official price [1] Group 2: Market Data and Changes Daily Changes - On Thursday, civil gas prices declined. In East China, it was 4369 (-5), in Shandong 4280 (-70), and in South China 4500 (-30). Ether - post carbon four was 4460 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 28 (-174), and the November - December spread was 137 (+8). FEI and CP increased to 474 (+8) and 450 (+1) dollars per ton respectively [1] - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4384 (+21); in Shandong it was 4450 (-100), and in South China 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the November - December spread was 78 (+0). Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected. The FEI monthly spread was - 15 dollars (-8.5), and the CP monthly spread was - 8.75 dollars (+0.25). The domestic - foreign price difference PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. AFEI was at a discount of - 18.75, and the South China CIF discount was 52. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 126 (-5) and the Middle East - Far East at 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to - 83 (-28) [1] Market Conditions - The inventory pressure is small, the supply is abundant, the chemical demand provides strong support, and the combustion demand is gradually picking up. The PDH operating rate is 70.88% (-1.64pct), with some plants like Haiwei, Lihuayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing is expected to resume next week [1]