Report Overview - The report is an LPG morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on October 14, 2025, providing daily and weekly data on LPG market [1]. Key Data and Changes Price Changes - On October 14, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of civil LPG in different regions showed mixed trends: in East China, it was 4386 (+2); in Shandong, it was 4450 (+0); in South China, it was 4560 (-30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (-110) [1]. - The lowest delivery location was East China, with the latest basis at 265, and the spread between November and December was 136 (+29) [1]. - FEI and CP dropped significantly, with the latest prices at 470 and 452 US dollars per ton respectively [1]. PG Market Changes - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4384 (+21); Shandong was 4450 (-100); South China was 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the spread between November and December was 78 (+0) [1]. - The warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The official price of CP in October opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 US dollars lower than expected [1]. - The FEI monthly spread was -15 US dollars (-8.5), and the CP monthly spread was -8.75 US dollars (+0.25) [1]. - The internal - external price difference: PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. - AFEI was at a discount of -18.75, and the South China CIF discount was 52. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 126 (-5) and the Middle East - Far East at 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to -83 (-28) [1]. PDH Profit - The spot profit of PDH to produce propylene changed little; the profit of producing PP rebounded from a low level. The PDH operating rate was 70.88% (-1.64 pct), with Haiwei, Li Huayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing expected to resume next week [1]. Core View - The LPG market shows that inventory pressure is small, supply is abundant, chemical demand provides strong support, and combustion demand is gradually picking up. With the current high PG basis, low FEI and CP valuations, and the expiration of the China - US tariff truce agreement on November 10, the improvement of PDH profit may lead to an increase in the demand for CP cargo purchases. It is advisable to pay attention to narrowing the PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of the low - opening of the official CP price at the end of the month [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current PG basis is high, FEI and CP valuations are low. The Sino - US tariff truce agreement will expire on November 10th. The improvement of PDH profit may lead to the purchase demand for CP cargo. One can focus on narrowing PDH profit, but should be aware of the risk of a low - opening CP official price at the end of the month [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis Information - On Friday, for civil gas, prices had both increases and decreases: East China was 4384 (+4), Shandong was 4450 (+20), and South China was 4590 (-10). Ether - post carbon four was 4590 (-30). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 314 (+6), and the November - December spread was 78 (-16). FEI and CP decreased slightly, at 498 (-2) and 472 (-1) dollars/ton respectively [1] - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4384 (+21); Shandong was 4450 (-100), South China was 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the November - December spread was 78 (+0). Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected [1] Spread and Arbitrage Information - The internal - external spreads were as follows: PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. AFEI was at a discount of - 18.75, and the South China arrival discount was 52 [1] Freight and Margin Information - Freight rates dropped significantly: US Gulf - Japan was 126 (-5), Middle East - Far East was 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to - 83 (-28). The spot profit margin of PDH to propylene changed little; the profit of producing PP recovered from a low level [1] Inventory and Demand Information - Inventory pressure was small, supply was abundant, chemical demand provided strong support, and combustion demand was gradually picking up. The PDH operating rate was 70.88% (-1.64pct), with Haichang, Lihuayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing expected to resume next week [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In Q4, both domestic and overseas supply of LPG remains resilient, while the demand side faces greater challenges [1] - The price range for Q4 is estimated to be between 3,800 - 4,600 yuan/ton [2] - Recommended strategies include range - trading for single - side operations, selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts at high prices for monthly spreads, and buying overseas and shorting domestic at low prices for the domestic - overseas spread [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In Q3, the domestic LPG price showed a pattern of first falling and then rising, affected by the crude oil market and a large number of warehouse receipts. The main contract price dropped from 4,500 yuan/ton to 3,770 yuan/ton, and the overseas CP contract price dropped from $600/ton in June to $520/ton in September [4][5] - From April to September this year, the domestic PG warehouse receipt volume was continuously at a seasonal high. Near - month prices were suppressed, the basis was mostly at a seasonal high, and the monthly spread was in a contango pattern, with the 9 - 10 spread reaching a minimum of about - 720 yuan/ton [8] - In Q3, the overseas price relationship was CP>FEI>MB. The MB price was relatively weak, the CP - FEI spread narrowed, and the FEI - MB spread widened [9] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Supply Still Has Resilience - **Middle East**: OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production since May, but the export increment is not obvious. From January to August, the total LPG export was 32,252 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. It is expected that the monthly average export volume in Q4 will be around 3,800 - 3,900 KT, similar to that of last year's Q4 [11][12] - **United States**: In Q3, the US C3 production remained high, with an average of 2.85 million barrels/day. From January to August, the total LPG export was 45,455 KT, with a year - on - year increase of 3.62%. It is expected that the Q4 export volume will remain high, with an estimated C3 production of 2.8 million barrels/day [16] 3.2 Asian Demand Faces Challenges - **India**: From January to August, the total LPG import was 14,947 KT, with a year - on - year increase of 7.08%. In Q4, the import volume will remain high but the incremental growth will not be significant, expected to be around 2 - 2.1 million tons/month [21][23] - **South Korea and Japan**: South Korea's LPG import volume is expected to remain high in Q4, supported by seasonal demand and chemical demand. Japan's LPG production has been decreasing year by year, and the demand is highly dependent on imports. There will be a seasonal increase in Q4 [25][28] - **China**: The PDH industry is in an expansion cycle. As of now, PDH has suffered losses, and there is a risk of a decline in chemical demand in Q4. The C4 demand and MTBE demand are also expected to decline seasonally [31][34] 3.3 Freight Rates Expected to Fluctuate at a High Level - Since the Sino - US trade friction in April, the freight rate from the US Gulf to the Far East has been rising. In Q4, the freight rate is expected to remain at a high level due to the resilient US export and the number of ships detouring the Cape of Good Hope remaining higher than in previous years [39] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - **Gas - oil ratio**: It is relatively neutral to high and may continue to rise if crude oil production increases in Q4 [44] - **PN spread**: It is relatively neutral to low and is expected to remain low in Q4 [46] - **PDH profit**: It is currently in a loss state and is expected to remain low in Q4 [48] 4.2 Overseas Supply - Demand Outlook - Supply will remain resilient in Q4, while demand in the Asian market has limited growth, mainly from seasonal factors. Chemical demand may be suppressed by profit decline [50] 4.3 Domestic Supply - Demand Outlook - **Supply**: Domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level in Q4, but the import volume may be affected by PDH profit and maintenance [51][54] - **Demand**: Chemical demand will decline in Q4, while the increase in combustion demand will not be significant as this winter is likely to be a warm winter [55]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market is weak, with slight declines in Shandong's civil LPG and ether - post carbon four. The market is expected to be mainly volatile as the combustion off - season is nearing its end, but demand remains weak, and supply in the cheapest delivery area (East China) is expected to increase slightly with no substantial improvement in demand [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Data Spot Market - Spot market is weak, with East China's low - end price at 4507 (+0), Shandong at 4500 (-20), and South China at 4590 (+0). Ether - post carbon four is at 4800 (+0). The lowest delivery area has shifted to Shandong [1] Futures Market - The PG main contract fluctuates. The cheapest deliverable is East China's civil LPG at 4501. The basis strengthens to 125 (+55), and the 10 - 11 month spread is 69 (-18). The registered warehouse receipt volume is 13008 lots (-199) [1] International Market - External prices are differentiated. FEI, CP, and MB month spreads fluctuate and strengthen. The internal - external price difference declines. The freight rate drops slightly. The Panama Canal waiting time for VLGCs significantly decreases [1] Industry Data - Port inventory changes little, refinery commercial volume drops by 3.01%, and PDH operating rate is 73.10% (+0.08pct). Next week, Ningbo Jinfa will shut down, while Hebei Haiwei and Wanhua Yantai will resume operations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of LPG are weak, and the market atmosphere is dull. However, after continuous declines, the PG main contract shows certain signs of stabilization. Yesterday, the strengthening of crude oil prices drove a slight rebound in the LPG market. The industry is waiting for the release of the August CP price [1]. - The supply of LPG is sufficient, with abundant overseas supply, high - level US exports, and a limited decline in domestic commercial volume. The demand for civil gas is in the off - season, and the combustion demand is weak. Although the profit of PDH in the deep - processing sector has improved marginally and the operating rate has rebounded, the subsequent growth momentum is limited [1]. 3. Summary according to Related Sections Market Analysis - On July 29, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4650 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4100 - 4430 yuan/ton; North China market, 4600 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4280 - 4600 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4640 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4100 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4448 - 4550 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were: propane at 551 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4338 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton); butane at 529 US dollars/ton (up 6 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4165 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). In South China, propane was at 544 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4283 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton); butane was at 522 US dollars/ton (up 6 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4110 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the bottom - building signals of the market. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG futures fluctuated downward, showing a weaker trend compared to crude oil. With the supply path of OPEC+ basically determined, the divergence in global supply will decrease in the future. [6] - On the demand side, the peak season for the blending market is approaching, but the blending market has been operating at a high capacity utilization rate. If expectations are not met, a negative feedback loop may quickly form. Additionally, summer is a traditional off - season for civilian demand, with little possibility of unexpected changes. [6] - PDH profits have significantly recovered, which may support the subsequent operating rate. Overall, LPG supply is abundant, and CP prices are likely to fluctuate following crude oil. In the long - and medium - term, civilian demand is entering an off - season, and chemical profit margins are difficult to expand further. Therefore, LPG futures prices are more likely to fall than to rise. Next week, attention should be paid to the progress of the third round of China - US negotiations. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - The domestic LPG market showed a divergent trend this period. Civil gas prices rose slightly, while the price of ether - after carbon four declined. For civil gas, refinery supply was generally under no pressure, and the number of incoming vessels at import terminals decreased. Also, civil gas prices were generally low, showing a slight upward trend during the week. However, prices in the East China region declined due to the large volume and low price of local industrial gas. [5] - The expected average price of propane CP was 532 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 26 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.66%. The expected average price of butane CP was 507 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 21 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.98%. The average price of propane CFR in South China was 543 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 23 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.06%. The average price of butane CFR in South China was 520 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 16 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 2.99%. [5] - Recommended futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices. [7] PART 02: LPG Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Import**: The report presents historical data on LPG import volume, including weekly arrival volume in China, monthly import volume from different countries (such as the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), and import trade profit margins in the South China region. [13][16] - **LPG Freight**: It shows historical freight rates from the Arabian Gulf region to the Far East and from the US Gulf Coast to the Far East. [19] - **LPG Inventory**: The report includes data on port inventory in China, refinery capacity utilization ratios in China, and factory - level inventory in China, as well as the production - sales ratios in regions such as South China, Shandong, and East China. [21][25] - **Industrial Indicators**: It presents data on the operating rates and production profit margins of PDH plants, MTBE plants, and alkylation oil plants in China. [30][32][34] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data - **Import Cost**: It shows the CP far - month and current - month prices, including the predicted prices of propane and butane, CP contract prices, and the price trends of CP crude oil. [39] - **Domestic Prices**: It includes the ex - factory prices of civil LPG in different refineries (such as Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao), the ex - factory price of ether - after carbon four, the spot benchmark price of MTBE in Shandong, the market price of alkylated gasoline in Shandong, and the spot price of maleic anhydride. [41][45][46][47][49] PART 04: Other LPG Data - It shows the historical data of the basis of the LPG main contract, the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts of major delivery warehouses. [53][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, LPG futures fluctuated downward, weaker than crude oil. With the supply path of OPEC+ basically determined, the global supply divergence will decrease. On the demand side, although the peak season of the blending market is approaching, it has been operating at a high level. Once expectations are disappointed, a negative feedback loop may form quickly. Summer is also the traditional off - season for civilian demand, with little chance of unexpected changes. PDH profit has significantly recovered, which may support the subsequent operating rate. Overall, LPG supply is abundant, and CP prices may mainly fluctuate with crude oil. In the long - term, demand is expected to decline, and LPG futures prices are more likely to fall than rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG行情回顾 - **Market Review**: Both the commercial volume of liquefied gas and the port arrivals decreased. Although chemical demand increased, civilian consumption was weak, leading to a decline in the market production - sales ratio and an increase in inventories at production enterprises and ports. Next week, supply will continue to decline, and traditional off - season demand shows no signs of improvement. However, considering the decrease in imported arrivals, port inventories are expected to decrease. On July 17, the average domestic civilian price was 4480 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from last Thursday, and the average price of ether - after carbon four was 4714 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan/ton from last Thursday [5]. - **Logic and View**: LPG futures oscillated downward this week, weaker than crude oil. With the supply path of OPEC+ basically determined, global supply divergence will decrease. The blending market's peak season is approaching, but it has been operating at a high level. Once expectations are disappointed, a negative feedback loop may form quickly. Summer is the traditional off - season for civilian demand. PDH profit has recovered, which may support the operating rate. Overall, LPG supply is abundant, and CP prices may follow crude oil. In the long - term, demand is expected to decline, and LPG futures prices are more likely to fall than rise [6]. - **Key Strategy Recommendation**: For futures, try shorting at high prices [7]. PART 02: LPG基本面 - **Supply - Import**: The report presents historical data on LPG arrivals in China, import trade margins in the South China region, and import volumes from different countries such as the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE [14][17]. - **LPG Freight**: It shows historical freight data from the Arabian Gulf to the Far East and from the US Gulf Coast to the Far East [20]. - **LPG Inventory**: The report provides historical data on port inventories, refinery capacity utilization rates, and factory inventories in China, as well as production - sales ratios in regions such as South China, Shandong, and East China [22][26]. - **Industrial Indicators**: It includes historical data on the operating rates and production margins of PDH, MTBE, and alkylated oil in China [31][33][35]. PART 03: LPG相关价格数据 - **Import Cost**: It shows the historical prices of CP far - month and current - month contracts, as well as the predicted prices of propane and butane in the external market, and the price trends of CP crude oil [40]. - **Domestic Prices**: The report presents historical data on the ex - factory prices of domestic civilian liquefied gas in Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao, as well as the ex - factory price of ether - after carbon four, the spot benchmark price of MTBE in Shandong, the market price of alkylated gasoline in Shandong, and the spot price of maleic anhydride [42][46][50]. PART 04: LPG其他数据 - **Related Data**: It includes historical data on the basis of the LPG main contract, the price difference between the first and second - month contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts of major delivery warehouses [54][56].