【现货方面】)拉丝浙江厂/库提6470(05-120，-20)拉丝江苏库提6420(05-170，-20)华北一区送到6420(05- 170，+20)华北临沂送到6520(05-130，+30)华南珠三角送到6570(05-20，-20)华中库提6450(05-140，-10) 库存：截止1月7日，生产企业权益库存去2.3万吨，贸易商库存累2.75万吨。 【观点】市场持续补空，中上游挺价意愿走强，基差维持，投机氛围好转。PP供需双弱，意外检修增 多，库存压力较之前有所缓解，1月转去库预期，但远月盘面给出了PDH套保利润，关注后期检修落地 情况。 【策略】PDH利润扩大持有 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【供需库存数据】 供应：产能利用率75.94%(+0.85%)。 需求：PP下游 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Daily Viewpoint**: On Monday, the futures market showed strong performance due to positive sentiment in energy - chemical products caused by geopolitical factors, rising overseas prices, and strong LPG spot prices. The 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 185 (-25). As of 8 pm, FEI and CP paper prices rose by $4.25 and $8.25 respectively compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Weekly Viewpoint**: The domestic market fluctuated this week, rising after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then falling back. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 30 to 6398. Domestic civil gas prices were differentiated, with the cheapest deliverable being Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20). Overseas prices rose, and the January CP official prices for propane and butane were 520/525 (+35/+30). The domestic - overseas price relationship strengthened. Overall, the Venezuela event may affect crude oil and thus LPG prices, and the overseas LPG market has near - term support. Domestically, the domestic - overseas price ratio is high but the basis is low. The strong spot and poor PDH profits may lead to negative feedback, and future drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH plant conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil showed various changes. For example, South China LPG rose from 4510 on December 29, 2025, to 4865 on January 6, 2026. The daily change on January 6, 2026, showed a 5 - point increase in South China LPG, 44 points in East China LPG, etc. [1] - **Spread and Basis Data**: The 02 - 03 spread and 03 - 04 spread changed both on a daily and weekly basis. The basis of 02 also changed. For example, on a daily basis, the 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and on a weekly basis, it was 119 (+7) [1]. - **Overseas Market Data**: FEI and CP paper prices rose on January 6. The January CP official prices for propane and butane were higher than before. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (down 5.5 from the previous period). East China propane arrival premium, AFEI, Middle East, and US propane January FOB premiums also changed [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market showed internal differentiation this week, with the internal market fluctuating. It soared after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then declined. The external market rose, and the official price of January CP was higher than expected. The overall market was affected by factors such as the Venezuela event, oil prices, and PDH device conditions. The internal - external valuation was high, but the basis was low, and the feedback of poor PDH profits might occur, with a bearish driving force [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On January 5, 2026, the prices of civil LPG in East China, Shandong, and South China were 4413 (+37), 4400 (+150), and 4860 (+270) respectively. The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+30). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. The basis was 216 (-49), the 02 - 03 month spread was 109 (+2), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 180 (+14). As of 20:00 PM, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices were 512 and 517.5 US dollars respectively [1]. Weekly Data - This week, the internal market fluctuated. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 month spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 month spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30). The domestic civil LPG was differentiated, with the cheapest delivery product being Shandong civil LPG at 4250 (-20), East China at 4376 (-8), and South China at 4590 (+80). The external market rose, and the official price of January CP for propane and butane was 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively. The internal - external market strengthened. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane in January were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates declined, and the FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (a month - on - month decrease of 5.5) [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and then impact LPG prices; the overseas LPG market remains supported in the near - term. The domestic LPG market shows an over - valued situation between domestic and foreign markets but a low basis. The feedback of poor PDH profits may occur, and the decline in the premium indicates a bearish driver. Future attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Price Changes - This week, the domestic LPG market fluctuated. It rose on Wednesday due to the high - opening of CP and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 month - spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 month - spread was -184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+3) [1]. - Domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4250 (-20); in East China, it was 4376 (-8), and in South China, it was 4590 (+80) [1]. - The overseas market rose. The official January CP prices opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively [1]. Price Spread and Premium Changes - The PG - FEI spread reached 85 (+25). The East China propane arrival premium was 66 (-18). The January FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively [1]. - Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPI spread was -15 (a month - on - month decrease of 5.5) [1].

部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 台H 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/26 -P G 内院CFR华 CP预测合 山东烷基 山东液化气 丙烷CIF日本 纸面进口利润 日期 华南液化气 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 华东液化气 目似 化油 E 2025/12/19 4398 4500 4380 573 504 497 4610 7150 -142 399 2025/12/22 4370 | 7150 4480 4388 580 536 202 4580 -213 355 2025/12/23 4475 4377 4370 7180 444 590 550 507 4580 -291 2025/12/24 4392 4320 4480 590 543 510 4570 7180 -277 398 2025/12/25 4520 4505 4389 4310 539 7150 413 l l I 0 B 日度变化 -10 -4 -50 -30 15 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PG futures price has rebounded. The Middle East resources are tight, the premium is still rising, and the winter price is hard to fall. The official January CP price is approaching. The internal and external valuations are high, but the driving force is weak, and the internal and external trading logics are differentiated. The upward driving force of FEI is limited, and the domestic market needs to focus on the negative feedback between warehouse receipts and PDH, with high uncertainty [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price Data - On Tuesday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4377 (-11), in Shandong was 4370 (+0), and in South China was 4475 (-5). The price of etherified C4 was 4580 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 135 [4] - The daily changes were: basis (+51), 01 - 02 spread 147 (-7), 03 - 04 spread -194 (-1). As of 21:00, FEI was 526 (+5) and CP was 506 (+0) dollars/ton [4] - The PG futures price rebounded. The 01 basis was 162 (-187), the 01 - 02 spread was 119 (+35), and the 03 - 04 spread was -206 (+33). The number of warehouse receipts was 3368 lots (-108) [4] - The domestic civil LPG market was differentiated. The cheapest delivery product was in Shandong at 4380 (-50); in East China at 4398 (-21), and in South China at 4500 (+80) [4] Market Relationship Data - The FEI monthly spread strengthened, the CP monthly spread weakened, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal and external relationships strengthened. PG - CP reached 99.6 (+28); PG - FEI reached 85.6 (+20); FEI - MB reached 170 (+6), and FEI - CP reached 14 (+8) [4] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 83 (-7). The FOB premiums of propane in the Middle East and the US were 13 (-24.25), 51 (+9), and 43 dollars (-4) respectively. FEI - MOPJ was -19.25 [4] Profit and Inventory Data - The spot profit of PDH was weak, and the futures profit rebounded. The arrivals decreased by 7.64%, and the port inventory decreased by -7.89%. The commercial volume of refineries increased by +0.82%, and the refinery inventory decreased by -0.03% [4] - The PDH operating rate was 75% (+2.13 pct) [4]

部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 台H 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/23 -P G 内院CFR华 CP预测合 山东烷基 纸面进口利润 日期 华南液化气 华东液化 山东液化气 丙烷CIF日本 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 目尖 化油 南 2025/12/16 4460 4440 520 4408 285 203 4570 7130 -276 240 2025/12/17 4410 523 7110 4490 4398 586 504 4600 -254 282 2025/12/18 4500 4398 4380 203 500 4610 7130 576 -165 389 2025/12/19 4398 4500 4380 573 504 497 4610 7150 -142 399 2025/12/22 4480 4388 4370 536 4580 7150 355 l I l ll B 32 日度变化 -20 -10 -10 -30 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG prices mostly fluctuate following the trends of external propane and crude oil. Recently, the domestic PG has been relatively strong, mainly influenced by its stable fundamentals. However, from an expected perspective, the trend is under pressure. Overseas supply remains resilient, and domestic PDH profits are severely pressured. There is short - term support, and marginal changes should be monitored [2]. - The near - term trading logic shows that the current situation is relatively neutral to strong, while the expectation is relatively weak. The long - term trading expectation is affected by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: The international crude oil market is volatile, facing fundamental pressure of oversupply and geopolitical risks. It once fell below $60 this week but rebounded later and remained weak overall [1]. - External propane: The overseas propane market is relatively strong. US production decline has led to inventory reduction, and Middle - Eastern shipments are still low, with a tight supply pattern continuing [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: Supply - side arrivals are low this week, and port inventories are decreasing. On the chemical demand side, PDH's operating rate has risen to 75% but is in deep - loss, and there are rumors of some enterprises' planned maintenance [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is in a volatile state, with the PG02 price range at 3800 - 4400 [13]. - Strategy suggestions: The basis strategy and the calendar - spread strategy are both volatile. For the hedging and arbitrage strategy, narrow the internal - external price difference and widen the PP/PG ratio when the price is low [13]. - Recent strategy review: PG1 - 2 and PG3 - 4 reverse spreads have been closed with profits. The long - PP and short - PG position is under observation. It is expected that some enterprises will enter maintenance in the first quarter, and attention should be paid to widening the 05PP/03PG ratio [14]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range forecast: The monthly price range is 3800 - 4400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.82% and a historical percentage of 39.18% in three years [15]. - Hedging strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including futures and options hedging, with specific suggestions on the trading direction, hedging ratio, and entry range [15]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Six departments have issued a notice to promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal projects and eliminate backward production capacity. Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and domestic fundamentals are relatively strong, with port inventories decreasing and PDH demand stable in the short - term [16]. - Bearish information: No bearish information is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - December 22: China's December LPR. - December 23: The revised value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: The PG01 contract fluctuated upward this week. There were minor changes in the net positions of major profit - making seats, long - 5 and short - 5 positions in the top - 10 list, and net positions of powerful seats, foreign investors, and retail investors [19]. - Technical analysis: The PG01 contract fluctuated upward this week, oscillating between 4000 - 4200 on the daily chart [20]. - Basis and calendar - spread structure: The LPG calendar - spread still shows a BACK structure, with the 1 - 2 month spread at 119 yuan/ton (+35) [24]. 3.3.2 External Market - Unilateral trend: FEI M1 closed at $512/ton (-2), CP M1 at $498/ton (-9), and MB M1 at $339/ton (-9). The swap market weakened along with crude oil, and there were many cancellations of Chinese tenders for January - February [27]. - Calendar - spread structure: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $20/ton (+1), CP M1 - M2 was $6/ton (-3), and MB M1 - M2 was $1.3/ton (-1.6) [35]. - Regional price - difference tracking: US propane demand weakened recently, and the FEI - MB and CP - MB price differences strengthened [37]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits - This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 614 yuan/ton (-31), and that of Shandong local refineries was 471 yuan/ton (+29). Profit fluctuations were small [40]. 3.4.2 Downstream Profits - PDH profits calculated by FEI and CP were - 289 yuan/ton (-46) and - 430 yuan/ton (+122) respectively, indicating continuous losses. MTBE gas - fractionation profit, isomerization profit, and alkylation oil profit were - 80 yuan/ton (-17), - 265 yuan/ton (-77), and - 510 yuan/ton (-37) respectively, with small recent fluctuations [42]. - Import profits: External spot prices weakened slightly this week, while domestic import gas prices remained stable, leading to the restoration of import profits [45]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - US supply - demand: This week, production declined slightly, demand was weak, and inventory was slowly decreasing. From January to November, US LPG exports totaled 62,703 kt, a year - on - year increase of 3.09%, with exports to China decreasing by 40% [49][56]. - Middle - Eastern supply: From January to November, Middle - Eastern LPG exports totaled 44,850 kt, a year - on - year increase of 2.88%. Exports to India decreased by 1.55%, while those to China increased by 27%. Shipments have been low recently [59]. - Indian supply - demand: From January to November, India's LPG demand totaled 30,101 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.26%, and imports totaled 21,048 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak, with high demand and imports [64]. - South Korean supply - demand: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality. Imports were high from May to September. Currently, propane cracking profits are still better than naphtha, and imports are expected to remain relatively high [73]. - Japanese supply - demand: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. With the cooling weather, imports are expected to increase [83]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - Supply: With high refinery profits, domestic LPG production is expected to remain high, but external sales volume is not high. Import volume is also not high [87]. - Demand: Chemical demand decreases, while combustion demand increases. Chemical demand in the fourth quarter is better than expected [87]. - Inventory: Overall, inventory decreased slightly, mainly at ports [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the LPG market showed a volatile and weak trend, especially with a significant decline starting from the night session on Thursday. The decline was caused by multiple factors, including the weakening support from the cost side due to the weak international crude oil prices, the need to digest the warehouse receipt pressure, and the divergence between the domestic and international markets. The firmness of the international market led to high import costs for downstream chemical enterprises, continuous losses in PDH profits, a decrease in the operating rate, and a more pessimistic outlook for future operations. Additionally, the economic efficiency compared to naphtha cracking continued to deteriorate. On the other hand, the relatively warm winter in the Yangtze River Delta region and the high inventory levels at the third - tier stations indicated that the combustion demand did not exceed expectations and might even fall short [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for single - side trading, wait and see for the 03/04 reverse spread opportunity in arbitrage trading, and watch for the put options opportunities of LPG2603 and LPG2604 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Trend**: The LPG market was volatile and weak this week, with a significant decline starting from Thursday night. The decline was due to weak international crude oil prices, warehouse receipt pressure, and the divergence between domestic and international markets. The high international prices led to high import costs for downstream chemical enterprises, resulting in continuous losses in PDH profits, a decrease in the operating rate, and a poor outlook for future operations. The economic efficiency compared to naphtha cracking also deteriorated. The relatively warm winter in the Yangtze River Delta region and high third - tier station inventories suggested that the combustion demand was not as expected [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Single - side: Maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies as the market is expected to be volatile and weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for the 03/04 reverse spread opportunity. - Options: Watch for the put options opportunities of LPG2603 and LPG2604 [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market continued to face supply pressure. Although OPEC+ suspended production increases in the first quarter of next year due to expectations of weak seasonal demand and sluggish global economic growth, the expectation of oversupply was difficult to change in the short term. The interception of a sanctioned oil tanker by the US military and the possible seizure of more oil tankers transporting Venezuelan oil affected oil prices. The Fed's interest rate cut this week also boosted the macro - financial market [7][8][10]. - **Supply from Refineries**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic major crude oil refineries rebounded by 0.45% to 75.11% after three consecutive weeks of decline. Although it was at a relatively low level this year, it was normal compared to historical levels due to seasonal maintenance. With the end of autumn maintenance, the capacity utilization rate of major refineries is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries slightly decreased by 0.25% to 64.34%, but it was still at a relatively high level this year and in historical terms. The overall supply is expected to remain stable as there are no major load adjustment plans for Shandong refineries next week [13]. - **Supply from Imports**: According to Clarkson data, the number of LPG ships arriving at Chinese ports rebounded, and the weekly LPG arrival volume increased by 175,000 tons. The freight rates of VLGC ships on three classic routes increased slightly, which was reflected in the FEI price. However, due to the divergence between domestic and international markets and the continuous losses of domestic PDH enterprises, the willingness for large - scale imports was weak [16]. - **Inventory**: The LPG port inventory increased slightly this week due to a small increase in arrivals, and the port storage capacity ratio continued to be below the seasonal average. The LPG inventory in refineries also increased slightly. The inventory capacity utilization rates at third - tier stations showed regional divergence, with continuous decreases in North China, high levels in the Yangtze River Basin and South China, and neutral levels in other regions, possibly due to uneven temperatures [17][20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price Data**: The report presents various price - related data, including Brent and WTI crude oil prices, CP, C3, FEI C3 prices, LPG main contract prices, and their seasonal trends, as well as the economic efficiency comparison between CP/FEI and other related data [24]. - **Spread Data**: It shows the spread data between different regions' LPG prices (such as South China, East China, and Shandong), the basis seasonal trends of LPG in different regions, and the basis between the LPG main contract and the spot market [27]. - **Profit Data on the Futures Market**: The data includes import profits based on CP and FEI, PDH propylene and polypropylene profits based on CP and FEI, and the relationship between import prices, LPG futures prices, and profits [30]. - **Profit Data in the Spot Market**: It covers import profits based on FOB, CFR, PDH propylene and polypropylene profits based on FOB and CFR, and the profits of isomerization etherification and dehydrogenation etherification [34]. - **Supply Data**: The data shows the seasonal trends of LPG production, crude oil processing volume, the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, and also provides the maintenance schedules of domestic major refineries and PDH plants [37][39][41]. - **Temperature Forecast**: The report provides the national temperature forecast, but no specific forecast content is given, only the data source is mentioned [43]. - **Inventory Data**: It presents the inventory capacity utilization rates of third - tier stations in different regions, the seasonal trends of LPG port inventory, and the seasonal trends of the port storage capacity ratio [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand. Therefore, there is still short - term support for the driving force. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4500 (+20), and in South China was 4470 (-50). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 79 (-22), and the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+0). As of 15:00, FEI was 516 (-1) and CP was 498 (-4) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month difference was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). The price of civil gas increased, and the cheapest deliverable product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international markets weakened. The PG - CP spread reached 100 (-21); the PG - FEI spread reached 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated [1] - Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]