受政府"停摆"影响，美国空中交通管制人员严重短缺造成多地机场航班延误甚至取消，机场运营也受到 影响。据美国航班跟踪网站的数据，仅30日当天，全美因各种原因已有超过6000架次航班延误，超1000 架次航班取消。 当地时间10月31日，美国联邦航空管理局表示，美国纽约肯尼迪国际机场因人员配备问题面临地面停 飞。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Points - A federal judge ruled that the Trump administration cannot suspend the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits during the government shutdown, as it may violate federal law [1] - The SNAP program ran out of funds on October 31, affecting approximately 42 million people in the U.S., which is about one-eighth of the total population, with most recipients living below the poverty line [1] - Beneficiaries of SNAP can use federal food assistance to purchase food at designated stores [1]

The Orlando airport was nearly shut down due to staff shortage during the United States government shutdown, but a last-minute arrangement of the air traffic controllers averted the closure. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had planned to close Orlando for landings.According to the reports, Orlando, Dallas/Fort Worth and Washington, DC airports witnessed a number of flights getting delayed due to shortage of staff ever since the government shut down on October 1 due to Republicans' standoff with th ...

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for 30 days as of October 30, which poses significant risks to the aviation industry, particularly as the Thanksgiving travel season approaches [1] - Vice President Kamala Harris warned that prolonged shutdown could lead to a "disaster" for air travel, citing potential increases in airport security wait times and pilot absenteeism due to financial concerns [1] Aviation Industry Impact - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in increased flight delays due to absenteeism among air traffic controllers, affecting thousands of flights daily [1] - Approximately 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration (TSA) security personnel are currently working without pay due to the shutdown [1] - Despite concerns, most commercial airline pilots are not federal employees and their income is not directly impacted by the government shutdown [1]

央视网消息：美国政府"停摆"10月30日进入第30天，据央视记者获悉，美国众议院工作人员收到通 知，将无法领取原定于10月31日发放的薪水。而随着领取免费食物的联邦雇员越来越多，一些食物分发 点倍感压力。 ...

今日周四(10月30日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11134一线上方，今日开盘于11427.00元/千克，截 至发稿，白银期货暂报11168元/千克，下跌0.22%，最高触及11438元/千克，最低下探11122元/千克，目 前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 当地时间10月29日，美国众议院工作人员收到通知，将无法领取原定于10月31日发放的薪水。通知 称："由于拨款中断，行政官办公室无权发放薪资，直至国会通过临时拨款决议或2026财年拨款法案并 签署生效。"与每月领取两次薪水的参议院员工不同，众议院工作人员为每月发薪一次，因此受影响更 为直接。 参议院多数党领袖John Thune及其参议院盟友、众议院议长迈克·约翰逊和其他众议院共和党领导人似乎 越来越确信，越来越多的中间派民主党人准备在临时拨款法案上做出妥协，以减轻停摆影响，可能就在 下周初。共和党领导人正在讨论一个新的临时拨款法案，目前已有数十种方案，其中包括为政府提供临 时资金到1月21日左右或者更晚至3月份。 另外美联储周三利率决议的要点如下：联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)以10票对2票通过降息决议，将基准 利率下调25个基点 ...

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future direction depends on the outcome of the current round of negotiations. It is expected that the price volatility may increase next week. It is recommended that investors hold an empty or light - position. Aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy to gain potential returns from the rising volatility [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: The US soybean futures contracts were relatively strong, with the main contract at 1075 cents. The domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly from its low level last week but was weaker than the external market. The market was affected by the China - US talks, and the bulls were hesitant to enter the market due to the uncertainty of importing US soybeans. Also, potential positive factors could not be realized because of the US government shutdown [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the results of the negotiation. It is recommended that investors hold an empty or light - position. Aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy [6]. b. Industry News - As of Sunday, the US soybean harvest is expected to be 84% complete, and corn harvest 72% complete. Analysts' forecasts for the US harvest progress range from 80% - 88% for soybeans and 67% - 80% for corn. Last year, the soybean harvest progress was 89%, and the corn harvest progress was 81% [7]. - Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 7.34 million tons. Brazil's soybean meal exports in October are expected to reach 2.08 million tons, down from 2.09 million tons the previous week [9].

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate from a target range of 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00% is not guaranteed for December, with significant disagreement among FOMC members [2][8][9] - The Fed plans to end balance sheet reduction starting December 1, indicating a shift towards maintaining a stable balance sheet size [9][10] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job growth slowing since the beginning of the year, attributed to a decline in labor supply and reduced immigration [3][30] - Despite some companies announcing layoffs, initial unemployment claims remain stable, suggesting no immediate deterioration in the labor market [3][30][40] Inflation Trends - Inflation remains slightly above the Fed's 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.8% over the past year, driven by tariff impacts on goods [4][21] - Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, is estimated to be around 2.3%-2.4%, indicating that non-tariff inflation is not significantly deviating from the target [21][31] Economic Activity - Economic growth is projected to be moderate, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [2][37] - Consumer spending has shown strength, which may offset some negative impacts from the government shutdown [2][37] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased by $2.2 trillion over the past three and a half years, with the current size at approximately 21% of nominal GDP [9][10] - The Fed will reinvest proceeds from maturing agency securities into short-term Treasury bills to adjust the balance sheet structure [10][18] Market Reactions and Future Considerations - The market has priced in expectations for a rate cut in December, but the Fed emphasizes that this is not a foregone conclusion [11][12] - The ongoing government shutdown may complicate data collection and impact future policy decisions, leading to a more cautious approach [24][25]

Group 1 - The outlook for policy interest rates indicates that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is not guaranteed, with significant disagreement among FOMC members about whether to pause [1] - The composition of the balance sheet has not been decided, and adjustments will be gradual, aiming for a shorter duration of the balance sheet [1] - The employment market is cooling due to restrictive policies, but there is no significant worsening in job market weakness, with job vacancies indicating stability over the past month [1] Group 2 - Inflation data shows that the September CPI was more moderate than expected, with core PCE potentially at 2.3% or 2.4% when excluding tariffs, and non-tariff inflation remaining close to the 2% target [1] - The potential government shutdown could impact the December FOMC monetary policy meeting, as private sector data cannot replace government statistics [1] - Market reactions include a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by over 8 basis points, stabilizing around 4.0583%, and a rise in the 2-year Treasury yield by over 10 basis points, stabilizing around 3.5919% [1]

人民财讯10月30日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，政府停摆将暂时拖累经济活动。 ...