英国的就业市场正面临疫情以来最严峻的考验。 根据英国智库决议基金会（Resolution Foundation）的分析，截至今年8月的三个月内，英国失业率 预计升至5%，为2021年初以来最高水平。 这一数字超过英国央行对第四季度4.9%的预测，凸显英国就业市场恶化与经济疲弱并存的困境。 招聘冻结 疫情后，英国的劳动力市场一度火爆。不过最新数据显示，英国就业市场正在快速失去动力，第二 季度官方失业率为4.7%。 伦敦的失业率依然是英国最高的。目前，伦敦约有6%的16岁至65岁居民（31.1万人）正在寻找工 作。与此同时，该市1/5的人被归类为"经济非活跃人口"，这意味着他们没有工作，也没有积极寻找工 作。 与以往不同的是，本轮就业放缓并非主要由大规模裁员推动，而是由于企业普遍冻结招聘，导致职 位空缺锐减。 疾病与老龄化风险 就业疲软背后还有结构性因素。 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）表示，疲弱的经济增长和劳动力数量的下降正给英国 带来"严峻挑战"。他在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年会上向财政政策制定者发表讲话时称，劳动力老龄化 以及被归为"长期患病"的人数增加，意味着英国的生产力正受到拖累。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [3][4]. Core Views - The combination of "tariff easing + employment slowdown" provides a premise for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, potentially leading to a rebound in metal prices. Optimistic expectations regarding tariff policies have heightened market sentiment, although gold has seen a decline due to reduced safe-haven demand [1][36]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are in a state of fluctuation due to macroeconomic uncertainties and rising inventories, while aluminum prices are supported by decreasing social inventories despite tariff policy fluctuations [1]. - Energy metals, such as lithium, are experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with lithium prices showing signs of fluctuation. The demand for electric vehicles continues to grow, but the market remains cautious [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a general increase in prices, with specific attention to gold and silver, which are influenced by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [12][18]. - Copper prices are currently in a consolidation phase due to fluctuating macroeconomic conditions and rising inventories, with global copper stocks reported at 537,000 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons week-on-week [1][23]. - Aluminum prices are supported by a decrease in social inventories, with theoretical operating capacity in China's electrolytic aluminum industry reaching 43.87 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [1][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rebound following a period of adjustment, driven by the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The recent employment data has raised concerns about economic growth, but the overall employment market is still showing signs of slowdown [1][36]. - Silver remains strong due to industrial demand, while gold has faced downward pressure from reduced safe-haven buying [1][36]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are currently fluctuating, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 59,000 yuan/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week. The supply side is seeing slight increases, but demand remains cautious due to market conditions [1][27]. - The demand for electric vehicles continues to rise, with cumulative sales of passenger and electric vehicles reaching 880.2 million and 438 million units respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9% and 34% [1][27]. Company Announcements - Companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold and Zhongse Co. have made significant announcements regarding resource verification and project investments, indicating ongoing developments in the sector [34].