2049 这次去的最大感受，就是发现和不少朋友们形成了 CEX 掌握了现阶段定价权的共识。从商业的角度来说，对这种趋势的理解不应该有偏好，发现趋势的时候尊重就完事了。而赛道的话， AI、稳定币、和 Robotics 仍是三个众人 fomo 的赛道项目本身来说，这次我也有几个比较看好的。先说第一个 @GoKiteAI 吧，看到不少人已经对项目的 PayPal 太子豪华背景有过介绍了，我就说两点不一样的：第一块就是人的部分，创始人 @ChiZhangData 给我的印象很深刻，对行业有比较深的了解之外在技术领域也很有研究，以及 @0xLaughing 我的好朋友！！加入 Kite 让 Kite 如虎添翼了第二块就是赛道的部分。CEX 既然掌握定价权的话，就要关注他们都在 fomo 什么了。比如，CZ 在 8 月底在香港发言，着重强调了 AI 与 Web 3.0 融合是势不可挡的，具体在支付层面上，AI 的货币体系必然是基于数字货币和区块链稳定币支付在走向主流，Kite AI 作为第一个面向 Agentic Internet 的用稳定币实现 AI 支付的公链，未来的发展前景值得高度期待原文链接我放评论区。那天的 d ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in fund returns has attracted significant attention, with notable performances from various funds, but the reality for retail investors may differ from the perceived opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, stock funds averaged a return of 28.18%, while mixed funds achieved 25.88%, with 97% of actively managed equity funds showing positive returns [3]. - Specific indices such as the Technology 50 Index and the Northern Stock Exchange 50 Index saw increases of 34% and 47.33% respectively, indicating a strong market performance [3]. Group 2: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors often enter the market at high points after media coverage, leading to losses when they sell during corrections [3][12]. - The tendency to follow trends without prior research results in missed opportunities, as institutional investors typically enter positions well before retail investors notice [3][12]. Group 3: Institutional Investment Insights - The concept of "institutional inventory" reflects the level of institutional engagement in stocks, with sustained involvement being a key driver of price increases [5][11]. - Stocks like "Cuiwei Co." demonstrated significant gains due to early institutional interest, while others like "Dongruan Group" failed to maintain momentum due to lack of sustained institutional support [5][9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The market operates as a dynamic game, where the same positive news can yield different outcomes based on the prevailing market conditions [13]. - Retail investors are encouraged to develop a multi-dimensional observation system and validate their logic with data to better navigate market opportunities [12].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of stablecoins, while enhancing cross-border payment efficiency and reducing costs, reveals limitations in their monetary functions, indicating a potential short-term impact on dollarization trends and a long-term inability to disrupt the multi-polar development of the international monetary system [1][2][3]. Group 1: Development of Stablecoins - The emergence of distributed ledger technology has provided the technical foundation for stablecoins, leading to a significant increase in their market size, with an annual growth rate exceeding 100% since 2020 [3][4]. - As of June 2025, the stablecoin market is projected to exceed $250 billion, with on-chain transaction volumes reaching approximately $7 trillion in 2024, accounting for 0.4% of global SWIFT settlement volumes [3][4]. - Stablecoins are increasingly utilized in various sectors, including decentralized finance (DeFi) and virtual economies, serving as a core collateral and payment method [6][8]. Group 2: Characteristics and Limitations of Stablecoins - Stablecoins primarily function as a digital representation of fiat currencies, lacking the essential characteristics of traditional money, such as single currency status, elasticity, and integrity [9][10]. - They exhibit significant scene dependency, primarily functioning within the digital asset ecosystem, and face regulatory challenges in mainstream economic transactions [14][15]. - The stability of stablecoins is relative and relies on market trust rather than institutional guarantees, making them vulnerable to price fluctuations and market sentiment [16][17]. Group 3: Impact on International Monetary System - In the short term, stablecoins may reinforce dollarization trends, particularly in small economies where they serve as a bridge between local currencies and the dollar [18][19]. - The long-term evolution of the international monetary system is expected to remain multi-polar, with stablecoins unlikely to fulfill the roles of a global currency due to inherent structural deficiencies [21][22]. - The introduction of stablecoins may intensify competition among major international currencies, accelerating the evolution of the global monetary landscape [24]. Group 4: Recommendations for China - China should expedite the establishment of a regulatory framework for stablecoins, ensuring compliance and mitigating risks associated with their use [26][27]. - The development of offshore RMB stablecoins is essential to create controllable international payment channels, leveraging Hong Kong's financial infrastructure [28][29]. - Strengthening the collaboration between stablecoins and the digital RMB can enhance the global presence of the RMB in payment systems [29][30]. - Deepening the opening of the bond market will provide more options for stablecoin collateral, supporting the internationalization of the RMB [30][31].

Core Insights - The discussion at the Alphas Summit highlighted the future of on-chain payments and the role of OKX Pay in everyday transactions [1][3][4] Group 1: Vision for Crypto Payments - The crypto industry processes trillions of dollars daily, yet most users cannot use cryptocurrencies for simple purchases like food [3] - The achievements of the crypto industry include Bitcoin becoming a global asset and the rise of stablecoins, with over $300 billion in circulation today, expected to reach $1-2 trillion in the next 1-2 years [4][5] - On-chain payments offer a return to peer-to-peer transactions, providing users with more control over their money compared to traditional financial systems [4][5] Group 2: OKX Pay Launch and Features - OKX Pay was recently launched in Singapore, allowing users to make everyday purchases using stablecoins [6][9] - The application supports seamless payments by scanning QR codes and selecting stablecoins like USDC or USDT, simplifying the payment process [7][9] - Users can earn approximately 4% annual yield on stablecoins stored in OKX Pay, with many merchants supporting PayNow QR code payments [10][11] Group 3: Self-Custody and Regulatory Compliance - OKX Pay operates on a self-custody model, allowing users to hold their private keys while ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [12] - The platform aims to support various stablecoins and facilitate on-chain payments while maintaining user control over their assets [12] - The underlying infrastructure, X Layer, is designed to enhance global, peer-to-peer payments while meeting regulatory standards [12]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback after three consecutive days of gains, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.54% at 27,140.92 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.9% at 6,622.85 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.68% at 9,658.34 points [1][2]. Sector Performance - In the technology sector, major stocks like BYD, Kuaishou, and Xpeng Motors fell over 3%, while Li Auto and NIO dropped over 2%. Conversely, the electric power equipment sector saw significant gains, with Shanghai Electric rising over 14% and Yihua Tong increasing over 12% [2][3]. - Cryptocurrency-related stocks also performed well, with OKLink rising over 13% and Jinyong Investment increasing over 11% [6][8]. - The automotive sector faced declines, with notable drops from companies like BYD and Kuaishou, while the gaming sector also saw losses, particularly from Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China [10][12]. Company News - Shanghai Electric announced a strategic collaboration in the clean energy sector with a 342 MW photovoltaic project in Romania, marking a significant step in regional energy transformation [5]. - Citigroup raised its earnings forecast for Gaming Corporation for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 20% to 24%, adjusting the target price from HKD 4.4 to HKD 5.4, despite maintaining a "sell" rating due to uncertainties surrounding the Naga 3 project [11]. Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net buy of HKD 1 billion, indicating continued interest from foreign investors in the Hong Kong market. CITIC Securities noted that the technology and internet sectors are particularly attractive due to improved earnings and favorable valuations [16].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the increasing interest of payment companies in stablecoin applications, particularly in the cross-border payment sector following the passage of the GENIUS Act [1][4] Group 2 - Visa is opening its real-time cross-border payment network, Visa Direct, for stablecoin pre-funding trials, allowing businesses to transfer funds in real-time across countries, even outside banking hours [4] - Mark Nelson, head of Visa's commercial and cash flow solutions, stated that the initiative aims to demonstrate how stablecoins and their technology can modernize existing payment infrastructures without altering Visa's payment network [4] - Richard Crone, CEO of Crone Consulting, emphasized that Visa's strategy positions Visa Direct as a "Swiss-style hub" for processing third-party tokens within existing regulatory frameworks [4] - Visa will not issue its own stablecoin or launch any co-branded stablecoins, confirming support only for third-party tokens, including PayPal's PYUSD and other approved issuers [4] - Visa Direct processed 10 billion transactions in 2024, covering 11 billion endpoints, including 3.5 billion bank accounts, 4 billion cards, and 3.5 billion digital wallets [4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline in early trading on October 3, with the Hang Seng Index at 27,221.46 points, down 65.66 points, a decrease of 0.24% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reported a drop to 6,653.26 points, down 29.60 points, a decline of 0.44% [2] Focus on Companies - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981.HK) opened higher by 0.78% at HKD 90.35, continuing its upward trend after a 12% increase the previous day, reaching a historical high [3] - According to Gao Feng, Chief Analyst of the Electronic Industry at China Galaxy Securities, the global semiconductor market showed significant recovery, with a market size of USD 346 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year growth, driven by AI infrastructure investment and terminal application demand [5] - The domestic market size is expected to reach RMB 102.6 billion by 2025, with SMIC playing a crucial role in the expansion of mature processes and local supply chains [5] Sector Performance - The performance of tech stocks in Hong Kong was mixed, with Alibaba-W (09988.HK) opening up by 1%, while Bilibili-W (09626.HK) opened down over 2%, and JD Group-SW (09618.HK) and Baidu Group (09888.HK) both fell by over 1% [7] - Stablecoin concept stocks were active, with Yunfeng Financial (00376.HK) rising over 4%, while gold stocks retreated, with Shandong Gold (01787.HK) down over 2%, and automotive stocks weakened, with Xpeng Motors-W (09868.HK) down over 2% [7] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities' recent report indicates that since 2010, the Hang Seng Index has had an 86.7% probability of rising during the National Day holiday, with a median increase of 2.1%, which is higher than the performance during the May Day holiday [8] - The historical trend shows a clear pattern of "pre-holiday defense - mid-holiday rise - post-holiday switch," with significant inflows into consumer and defensive sectors before the holiday, followed by a broad market rally during the holiday [8] - However, there is a noted short-term risk, as the probability of a decline on the first trading day after the National Day holiday has been high historically [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of cryptocurrency-related stocks in Hong Kong, with significant gains observed in several companies [1][3] - As of September 30, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) received 36 applications for stablecoin licenses from various institutions, including banks, tech firms, and startups, indicating a growing interest in the stablecoin market [3] - The HKMA plans to review these applications and aims to announce the first batch of stablecoin issuers' licenses by early next year, with a high threshold for approval [3] Group 2 - Yunfeng Financial announced a strategic investment agreement with Anthea Holding Limited, focusing on blockchain-based insurance products, including cryptocurrency life insurance and digital asset-related savings and retirement insurance [3] - The collaboration aims to explore the digitization of traditional insurance policies and develop an efficient and forward-looking insurance business model [3]

Core Insights - The report discusses the evolution of stablecoins, highlighting their differences from traditional payment systems like Alipay and the regulatory landscape across various regions, particularly focusing on the implications for China [1][15][20]. Development Stages of Stablecoins - The first stage (2014-2017) saw the emergence of stablecoins like USDT, bitUSD, and bitCNY, aimed at addressing the volatility of cryptocurrencies [1][2][4]. - The second stage (2018-2022) marked significant developments, including the launch of USDC and the Libra project, which drew global regulatory attention [5][6]. - The third stage (2023-present) has seen a resurgence in market capitalization and trading volume, with USDT and USDC leading the recovery [6][7][23]. Regulatory Landscape - The U.S. has adopted a "muddled tolerance" approach to regulation, allowing for innovation while establishing a framework for compliance [20][23]. - The EU and Singapore have implemented strict regulations, which have limited the growth of local stablecoins [21][24]. - Hong Kong is positioned to create a "stablecoin corridor," leveraging its unique status to foster a vibrant stablecoin market [27][28]. Comparison with Alipay - Stablecoins and Alipay share similarities in value stability and transaction convenience, but differ fundamentally in their operational frameworks and regulatory environments [15][18]. - Stablecoins operate on blockchain technology, allowing for global transactions, while Alipay relies on traditional financial systems [18][19]. Strategic Insights for China - The report suggests a "three arrows" strategy for China to gain a competitive edge in the stablecoin market, including offshore RMB stablecoins, a Chinese version of USD stablecoins, and a "global currency" backed by multiple currencies [31][32]. - It emphasizes the need for innovative regulatory frameworks to support the development of stablecoins and their integration into the broader financial ecosystem [30][32].

2 、 恒生指数公司：紫金黄金国际有限公司符合恒生综合指数的快速纳入规则要求， 将于 2025 年 10 月 15 日 ( 星期三 ) 收市后被纳入以下指数，并于 2025 年 10 月 16 日 ( 星期四 ) 起生效。 3 、 Wind 数据显示，今年 1 月 1 日至 9 月 30 日，合计有 231 家港股上市公司累计回购了 56.57 亿股，回购金额达到 1367 亿港元。 从行业来看，互联网 科技行业与金融行业主导回购趋势，腾讯、汇丰控股、友邦保险三家企业回购金额均在百亿港元以上。 4 、 中金公司表示， " 并购六条 " 落地一年以来，产业并购成为主流，半导体等战略性新兴产业的并购案例显著增多， 同时创新方案层出不穷，交易灵 活性大幅提升。根据当前并购市场已公告交易总规模数据推算， 2025 年全年交易规模有望接近过去 10 年历史高点。 5 、 外资机构大举到访科技股。据统计，有 23 家公司 9 月份吸引了 10 家及以上外资机构 " 登门拜访 " 。 这些公司大多为高科技企业，去年研发投入占 比均超 5% 。汇川技术以 176 家海外机构调研的数据独占鳌头。埃斯顿和深南电路分别以 58 家 ...