Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the global financial and commodity markets, along with significant macro - economic and corporate news. It shows that geopolitical factors are affecting the energy market, and various industries such as metals, black - series, and agriculture are experiencing different trends due to factors like policy, production, and market demand. The financial market also shows a complex situation with the divergence of stock indices and fluctuations in different asset classes. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - The US crude oil main contract rose 1.92% to $57.83 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.66% to $61.24 per barrel. Geopolitical issues and production decline in Kazakhstan drove up oil prices [5][43]. - Most London base metals declined, with LME lead and copper rising slightly, and LME tin falling 6.55% to $40010 per ton [5][43]. - Spot silver first broke through the $80 per ounce mark but then plunged, dragging down other precious metals. COMEX gold futures fell 4.45% to $4350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce [6][7]. - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some like asphalt rising and others like pulp falling [7]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to develop new - quality productivity in a coordinated manner [9]. - Trump said the US military's strike on a Venezuelan factory reduced drug trading by 97% [9]. - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 9.7% [10]. - Russia set the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from the Donbass as a pre - condition for a truce [10]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly measures [11][12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The start - up rate of China's LOW - E glass sample enterprises increased [14]. - A subsidiary of Boyuan Chemical decided to shut down due to continuous losses [14]. - The expected arrival of New Zealand coniferous logs at 13 Chinese ports increased significantly [14]. - Guyana's oil production in November rose to about 894,000 barrels per day [15]. Metal Futures - Yunnan Province plans to strengthen resource - based industries [17]. - Longpan Technology will conduct production line maintenance, reducing lithium iron phosphate output [19]. - The price of high - quality and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased [19]. - UBS raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 [19]. - Environmental controls in some areas affected the aluminum market [19]. - Zinc mines in different regions had production changes [20]. - Chuanfa Longmang's projects were put into production or in trial production [20]. Black - Series Futures - Global iron ore shipments increased, while China's 47 - port and 45 - port arrivals decreased [22][24]. - Hebei steel mills lowered coke prices, starting the fourth round of price cuts [24]. - Tiansteel will conduct blast furnace maintenance [25]. Agricultural Product Futures - India's domestic sugar quota for January 2026 was set at 2.2 million tons, and the market is expected to be stable [27]. - China's domestic oil mills' soybean crushing volume remained high in December [27]. - The commercial inventory of soybean oil decreased, while that of palm oil increased [27]. - US soybean export data showed changes, and Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.9% [27][30]. Financial Market Finance - A - share indices were divergent, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.04%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling [32]. - Hong Kong stocks fell, with large - cap tech stocks generally declining [32]. - China's public - offering fund scale exceeded 37 trillion yuan in November [32]. - GSM, an electric mobility service provider in Vietnam, plans to list in Hong Kong [34]. Industry - The National Energy Administration emphasized the construction of charging infrastructure [35]. - The 2026 auto market growth is complex, with a possible January increase [35]. - Shenzhen proposed to adjust real - estate investment [35]. - Hong Kong's private housing prices rose in November [35]. - The price of imported GLP - 1 diet pills was halved [36]. - AI Agent is expected to be popularized in 2026 [36]. - The global memory industry's "super - cycle" is expected to last until 2027 [36]. Overseas - Trump criticized the Fed and considered suing Powell [38]. - Trump met with Zelensky, but no major announcements were made [38]. - The US government investigated large companies' DEI projects [38]. - US pending home sales rose in November [38]. - The Bank of Japan hinted at future interest - rate hikes [38]. - Most German business associations expect to lay off employees in 2026 [39]. - The ACCA will end online exams in March 2026 [39]. International Stock Markets - US stock indices fell, with AI - related stocks under pressure [40]. - European stock indices were mixed, with the German DAX and French CAC40 rising slightly, and the UK FTSE 100 falling slightly [42]. - Wall Street is optimistic about US stocks in 2026 [42]. - Intel bought back over 214.7 million shares worth $5 billion [42]. Commodities - Crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical factors [43]. - Most London base metals declined [43]. Bonds - China's bond market weakened, and long - term bonds were under pressure [44]. - The yield of treasury bond reverse repurchase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges rose [44]. - The US federal debt exceeded $38.5 trillion, and the buyer structure changed [46]. - US bond yields fell [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell slightly, and the central parity rate rose [47]. - The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and financial markets are experiencing significant fluctuations, with various industries showing different trends. For example, the metal market has seen extreme price swings, the energy market has supply - related changes, and the stock and bond markets have their own performance characteristics [4][10][30] - China is implementing a series of economic policies, such as tariff adjustments and promoting the development of digital RMB, which will have an impact on domestic and international trade and the financial system [2][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing certain trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other monetary indicators also had corresponding changes in November 2025 [1] Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From January 1, 2026, China will implement import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation rates for 935 commodities to enhance resource linkage and expand high - quality supply [2] - On December 29, 2025, 40 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 26 had negative basis [2] Metal - Precious metals had a volatile "Black Monday". Silver first soared and then plunged, dragging down other precious metals. International and domestic metal prices and futures contracts showed significant declines [4][5] - On December 29, 2025, CME Group raised metal futures trading margins, triggering price drops [5] - In 2025, silver prices broke a 45 - year record and were higher than crude oil prices, driven by industrial and investment demand [5] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Ore - Bauxite miner Axis has filed a $29 billion claim against Guinea [9] Energy and Chemicals - U.S. refineries are expected to have capacity outages in the coming weeks, with the scale increasing [10] - India's oil imports from Russia in December 2025 are expected to exceed 1 million barrels per day [10] Agricultural Products - China's grain output in 2025 was 1.43 trillion jin, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, mainly due to the increase in corn production [12] - As of December 2025, the autumn grain purchase volume exceeded 200 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32 million tons [13] Financial News Open Market - On December 29, 2025, the central bank conducted 482.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 415 billion yuan [14] Important News - The Chinese military conducted the "Justice Mission - 2025" exercise around Taiwan [15] - China will start to pay interest on digital RMB from January 1, 2026 [15] Bond Market - The bond market was generally weak, with treasury bond futures falling and bond yields rising [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0098 on December 29, 2025, down 13 points from the previous trading day [26] Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that in the short term, the bond market carry strategy is relatively certain, and there is room for the repair of long - end bonds [27] - CITIC Securities suggests paying attention to high - grade state - owned enterprise perpetual bonds in industries such as public utilities, transportation, and construction [27] Stock Market - A - shares showed a divergence between large and small indexes. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell [30] - Hong Kong stocks fluctuated, with the Hang Seng Index falling 0.71% [30]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, leading to reduced retail activity and negative sentiment towards crypto exchanges [1][4] - Despite slashing price targets for major crypto platforms like Coinbase, Robinhood, E Toro, and Gemini, the firm maintains buy ratings on these stocks [1] - The sentiment in the crypto market has reached its lowest level since October 2024, indicating a period of extreme disinterest [2][3] Market Sentiment - Current sentiment is characterized by extreme disinterest, which may indicate a potential bottom for crypto prices [3][4] - The negative sentiment has resulted in decreased retail trading activity, which may take up to two quarters to recover even with rising crypto prices [4][5] Future Catalysts - Potential growth for crypto platforms may come from the tokenization of real-world assets and increased adoption of stablecoins, which do not typically experience price volatility [6] - Diversification away from traditional crypto offerings, such as prediction markets, may also benefit platforms in the future [7] Company Performance - Robinhood has emerged as a leading performer in the market, with a 215% increase year-to-date, attributed to its success as a super app offering a variety of products [8][9] - The company's strategy of not focusing solely on one asset but providing a wide range of services has set a benchmark for other crypto platforms [10] - Robinhood's acquisition of Bitstamp has helped mitigate the impact of declining crypto volumes, as Bitstamp caters more to institutional clients [11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant fluctuations in 2023, characterized by a structural bull market driven by policy changes, technological revolutions, and macroeconomic shifts, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak of 4034 points [2][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from a low of 3040 points to a peak of 4034 points within the year, reflecting a volatile market influenced by major events such as the introduction of the DeepSeek technology and various policy measures [2][11]. - The market saw a notable recovery after a period of decline, with the index hitting a low of 2689 points in August 2022 before rebounding significantly due to policy interventions [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on stocks with strong performance metrics and to avoid speculative trading, as the market has shown a clear distinction between stocks with solid fundamentals and those driven purely by hype [3][12]. - The importance of aligning investment choices with policy directions, industry trends, and company performance is emphasized, indicating that successful investors are those who adopt a value investment approach [3][12]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The technology sector, particularly in AI and computing power, has emerged as a key area for investment, with companies like DeepSeek leading the charge in innovation and market disruption [8][12]. - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a promising investment area, benefiting from a confluence of policy support, technological advancements, and capital investment [12][13]. Group 4: Lessons Learned - The experience of investors in 2023 underscores the necessity of long-term investment strategies over short-term trading, with a focus on companies that demonstrate core technological capabilities and sustainable growth paths [13][12]. - The shift in market dynamics from a policy-driven narrative to an emphasis on industrial execution and performance is noted, suggesting a more mature investment landscape moving forward [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered predicts significant price increases for Bitcoin and XRP over the next two years despite a challenging 2025 for cryptocurrencies due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Regulatory Environment - The Trump administration has enacted pro-cryptocurrency policies, including the establishment of a working group to enhance U.S. leadership in digital financial technology and the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve [4][5]. - The Genius Act, signed by Trump, provides a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, and the Clarity Act aims to clarify jurisdiction over digital assets [5]. - The SEC has formed a crypto task force and rescinded Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, which is expected to facilitate digital asset adoption by institutional investors [6]. Investment Thesis for Bitcoin - Bitcoin treasury companies, such as Strategy, have been significant demand sources, with Strategy holding 671,268 BTC [6]. - Kendrick forecasts Bitcoin will reach $225,000 by 2027, indicating a 155% upside from its current price of $88,000 [7]. - Spot Bitcoin ETFs are anticipated to become the primary demand driver, as they simplify access to Bitcoin for institutional investors [8][9]. Investment Thesis for XRP - XRP, utilized by Ripple for cross-border transactions, is projected to capture 14% of SWIFT's volume, potentially facilitating over $20 trillion in transactions annually [11][12]. - The approval of spot XRP ETFs has generated over $1 billion in assets under management, indicating growing interest among investors [14]. - Despite the potential, skepticism exists regarding XRP's adoption due to competition from stablecoins and a decrease in transaction volume since the launch of Ripple USD [12][13]. Comparative Outlook - The analysis suggests prioritizing Bitcoin over XRP for investment, with a belief that Kendrick's Bitcoin price target is more achievable than his XRP target [15].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to close at 3965.28 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49% to 13537.10 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.66% to 3222.61 points. Overall, there were 1993 stocks that rose and 3325 stocks that fell across the market, with a total trading volume of 21393 billion yuan, a decrease of 209 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included Petroleum & Petrochemicals (up 1.48%), National Defense & Military Industry (up 1.43%), Banking (up 1.03%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry & Fishery (up 0.71%), and Automotive (up 0.41%). Conversely, the sectors that experienced the largest declines were Nonferrous Metals (down 1.95%), Utilities (down 1.24%), Electric Equipment (down 1.13%), Building Materials (down 1.11%), Food & Beverage (down 1.06%) [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that performed well today included Chemical Fiber Selection, Stablecoins, PEEK Materials, Cryptocurrencies, Cross-Border Payments, Perovskite Batteries, Satellite Internet, Circuit Boards, Gear Reducers, Large Aircraft, Central State-Owned Banks, Selected Aviation Transport, Photovoltaic Glass, Commercial Aerospace, and Low-altitude Economy [2].

Group 1 - The Binance Blockchain Week held in Dubai featured key industry leaders, including Sun Yuchen, discussing the future trends of Web3 [1] - TRON, as a gold sponsor, showcased its decentralized perpetual contract exchange SunX, which has achieved a total trading volume exceeding $9.5 billion, highlighting its market influence in blockchain finance [1] - Sun Yuchen emphasized the importance of decentralization in both finance and space exploration, aligning with TRON's mission to promote a decentralized internet [1] Group 2 - TRON set up an interactive exhibition area at the main venue, featuring a mirror art installation that attracted significant attention and provided opportunities for community engagement [3] - Sam Elfarra, TRON's community spokesperson, participated in a panel discussion on stablecoins, asserting that TRON is the preferred network for stablecoin settlements due to its speed, scalability, and low costs, a view widely accepted by attendees [5] - TRON's active participation in the Binance Blockchain Week showcased its leadership in blockchain innovation and stablecoin application, aiming to build reliable infrastructure for billions of users in the accelerating Web3 era [5]

格隆汇12月29日｜据Cointelegraph，摩根大通近期冻结两间稳定币初创公司BlindPay和Kontigo的银行帐 户，疑与委内瑞拉有关。摩通发言人强调，是次冻结纯粹出于合规考虑，与稳定币公司毫无关系。该两 间受影响的初创公司均获得Y Combinator的支持，主要在拉丁美洲营运，透过数码支付公司Checkbook 使用摩根大通的银行服务。 Checkbook总裁PJ Gupta解释，由于拒付率显著上升，BlindPay和Kontigo的 帐户受到影响，客户快速注册，导致纠纷大幅增加，最终促使银行暂时冻结了有关帐户。 ...

Core Insights - Trip.com, a platform under Ctrip, has launched a global stablecoin payment feature supporting USDT and USDC, allowing users to save up to 18% on flight bookings in regions like Vietnam [1][46][48] - This initiative addresses the gap in traditional financial systems, providing a payment solution for over 80% of the global population who lack access to international credit cards or bank accounts [3][10][48] - Ctrip's approach is characterized by a low-profile implementation, contrasting with other companies that have made high-profile announcements without substantial progress [5][50] Payment Functionality - The stablecoin payment system allows users to book hotels and flights using multiple public blockchains, simplifying the payment process to just requiring a name and email for hotel bookings [7][8][52] - The payment gateway and settlement support are provided by Triple-A, a licensed institution in Singapore, ensuring compliance and security [8][53] Market Context - The emergence of stablecoin payments is seen as a necessary evolution, particularly for users in high-inflation countries like Turkey, Egypt, and Bolivia, where residents use stablecoins to hedge against currency devaluation [10][55][64] - The global market for stablecoins is rapidly expanding, with a current market cap of nearly $260 billion, accounting for 97% of cryptocurrency trading volume [65] Strategic Implications - Ctrip's stablecoin initiative is part of a broader financial strategy that has been in development since 2013, aiming to create a comprehensive financial ecosystem [14][59] - The choice of Singapore as a base for the payment service reflects a commitment to regulatory compliance and a favorable business environment for cryptocurrency [14][60] User Experience - The payment process is designed to be user-friendly, with minimal information required for hotel bookings, enhancing privacy and reducing data collection [35][63] - The stablecoin payment feature is currently in a testing phase, with expectations that it will lead to cheaper international travel and more innovative products in the future [68][80] Industry Impact - Ctrip's move is likely to inspire other players in the online travel agency (OTA) sector to explore similar payment solutions, potentially reshaping the industry landscape [80] - The integration of blockchain technology in travel could lead to new business models, including smart contracts for travel insurance and NFT-based products [80][82]

Core Insights - The article discusses the role of cryptocurrency payments in Argentina, particularly in the context of hyperinflation and the adoption of stablecoins as a financial tool for locals [2][11]. Group 1: Economic Context - Argentina has been battling severe inflation, with the exchange rate of the peso deteriorating from approximately 20 pesos per dollar in 2015 to around 1,400 pesos per dollar recently [6][14]. - The economic policies in Argentina have led to a lack of foreign reserves and a complex financial environment, where multiple exchange rates exist, including official and black market rates [41][42]. Group 2: Cryptocurrency Adoption - The regulatory environment for cryptocurrency payments in Argentina has become more favorable under the current administration, allowing for the growth of crypto payment solutions [17]. - Local fintech applications like Lemon Cash and Ripio are gaining traction, with Lemon Cash being noted for its comprehensive features, including bill payments and salary deposits in USDT [17][18]. Group 3: Payment Solutions - The Peanut application has emerged as a popular tool for currency exchange and payments, allowing users to recharge with stablecoins and make local purchases seamlessly [8][20]. - Traditional payment systems like Mercado Pago dominate the market, with a significant presence in everyday transactions, but new fintech solutions are providing alternatives that cater to the needs of users in a high-inflation environment [29][30]. Group 4: User Experience and Market Dynamics - The user experience with local fintech applications is generally positive, with features like virtual cards and low fees enhancing accessibility for users who may struggle with traditional banking [18][19]. - The competitive landscape for payment solutions is intense, with many new entrants attempting to capture market share by offering similar functionalities and incentives [20][21]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The potential for local fintech solutions to expand globally is debated, with some experts suggesting that local teams may lack the vision for international growth compared to European teams [60][62]. - The article highlights the importance of marketing and user acquisition strategies in establishing a foothold in both local and international markets [62][63].