Core Viewpoint - Employment stability is crucial for economic stability and social harmony, prompting the government to implement policies aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Policies and Measures - The government has introduced several measures to stabilize employment and the economy, building on previous policies from September 2022 and the Central Economic Work Conference [1][2]. - In 2024, the target for new urban employment is set at 12.56 million, with an average urban survey unemployment rate of 5.1% [2]. - The total number of migrant workers has increased by 2.2 million year-on-year, with 33.05 million people from poverty alleviation programs engaged in work [2]. Group 2: Employment Challenges and Structural Issues - Despite the positive employment outlook, challenges such as "difficulty in hiring" and "employment difficulties" persist, indicating structural employment issues [2][3]. - There is a need for timely adjustments to employment policies and the introduction of reserve policies to optimize the employment environment [2][4]. Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - Workers often rely on existing job experiences and skills, leading to a lag in recognizing new job opportunities in emerging industries, which exacerbates structural unemployment [3]. - Companies tend to stick to traditional business practices, which can hinder investment and job creation, necessitating support for businesses to adapt and expand [3][4]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The government should implement proactive reserve policies and enhance unemployment insurance to stabilize market expectations and alleviate employment market fluctuations [4]. - Strengthening financial support and services for businesses can help mitigate the pressures of transformation and recruitment [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The speech emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable economic foundation while promoting high-level opening-up and adapting to international changes [1] Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The need to proactively understand the impact of international developments on China's economic layout and make necessary adjustments [1] - A commitment to steadfastly manage domestic affairs and expand high-level foreign openness [1] - The focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to effectively maintain the economic fundamentals [1] Group 2: High-Quality Development - Accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development comprehensively [1] - Greater emphasis on coordinating development and security, considering both internal and external risks and challenges [1] - Enhancing the national security system and improving the ability to maintain security to foster a positive interaction between high-quality development and high-level security [1]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭 等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件：4月28日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施。 稳内需、稳就业相辅相成。促消费政策侧重改善服务消费供给，稳投资侧重既有政策落地 消费方面，除了继续拨付消费品以旧换新补贴资金外，政策后续还将通过建立育儿补贴制度、创设专项再 贷款工具等多维发力。 发改委副主任赵辰昕透露第二批以旧换新补贴资金已拨付到位，后续仍有1400亿元 待分配额度。服务消费方面聚焦供给侧，央行副行长邹澜表示"着重从服务消费供给侧发力，聚焦文旅体 育、餐饮住宿、教育培训等重点领域，加大金融支持力度"，预计配套再贷款工具将加快落地。值得关注的 是，赵主任明确表示"将建立实施育儿补贴制度"，此举既可稳定人口长期趋势，又能短期提振相关消费。 投资方面，政策着重加快项目落地，通过政策性开发性金融工具破解资本金缺口问题。 本本次发布会实质 是对4月政治局会议决策的深化落实：一方面，发改委提出"力争6月底前 ...

商务部副部长盛秋平表示，将推出细化举措，进一步增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用，以强大的国内市 场更好应对外部风险挑战。一是扩围提质实施消费品以旧换新，二是推动汽车流通消费改革，三是实施 服务消费提质惠民行动，四是举办"购在中国"系列活动。 当前，消费品以旧换新取得了积极成效。截至4月27日24时，全国汽车以旧换新281.4万辆，12类家电以 旧换新4941.6万台，手机等数码产品购新3785.5万件，家装厨卫"焕新"4090.6万件，电动自行车以旧换 新超420万台，合计拉动销售额超7200亿元。 对企业加大扩岗支持 人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋表示，将加快推出增量政策，对企业加大扩岗支持，对个人加大就业 补贴支持，对受关税影响较大的企业提高失业保险稳岗返还比例等。对已出台的存量政策要全面落实， 加快兑现稳岗返还、担保贷款、就业补贴，延续实施降低失业和工伤保险费率。 （上接1版） 扩内需政策将在二季度加快落地 赵辰昕表示，提振消费专项行动、用好今年国家层面5万亿元投资资金、加快设立国家创业投资引导基 金等政策大部分将在二季度落地。 据悉，在提振消费方面，近期已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧换新资金，前两批一共下 ...

Group 1 - The central government is focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations through various measures [1][2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will introduce several initiatives aimed at supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding investment, and creating a favorable environment [2][3] - Specific measures include encouraging companies to maintain employment, enhancing vocational training, and providing public employment services [2][6] Group 2 - Policies to boost domestic demand will accelerate implementation in the second quarter, including a special action to stimulate consumption and the establishment of a childcare subsidy system [4][5] - The government has allocated over 160 billion yuan for consumption incentives, with plans to issue additional funds based on local payment progress [4][5] - The automotive industry has seen significant activity, with over 2.81 million vehicles exchanged under the trade-in program, contributing to sales exceeding 720 billion yuan [5] Group 3 - Employment figures remain stable, with 3.08 million new urban jobs created in the first quarter, and the urban unemployment rate averaging 5.3% [6] - The government plans to enhance support for companies to expand job positions and provide increased employment subsidies [6][7] - Measures to assist foreign trade enterprises include integrating domestic and foreign trade reforms and enhancing trade finance support [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment and the economy to promote high-quality development in response to external environmental changes [1][2] - The government aims to implement a series of policies to boost domestic demand, including a special action to stimulate consumption and utilizing 5 trillion yuan of investment funds [1][2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need for continuous improvement of policy tools to ensure economic stability and social stability [1][2] Group 2 - The introduction of incremental reserve policies and counter-cyclical adjustments is crucial for generating new momentum for economic growth in the second half of the year [2] - A moderately loose monetary policy will support employment and economic stability, including potential interest rate cuts and maintaining ample liquidity [2] - Enhancing domestic demand is identified as a primary means to stabilize employment and the economy, focusing on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups [2][3] Group 3 - Boosting consumption is deemed essential, with specific measures such as establishing a childcare subsidy system and supporting the automotive industry [3] - The government recognizes the potential for expanding domestic demand, particularly through new urbanization and upgrading durable consumer goods [3] - Structural changes in demand are impacting employment, necessitating a focus on ensuring job stability for key groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers [3][4] Group 4 - There is an emphasis on increasing vocational training in sectors with high employment capacity, such as healthcare, advanced manufacturing, and modern services [4] - Policy incentives will be strengthened to encourage both enterprises and workers to engage in skill training, aligning with the evolving labor market demands [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent political events in the U.S. and their potential impact on the economy and financial markets, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and investor sentiment towards U.S. assets [9][11]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The article highlights two scenarios for the Federal Reserve's future policy: one where trade negotiations fail, leading to a potential rate cut starting in July, and another where negotiations succeed, resulting in a delay of rate cuts due to persistent inflation pressures [11]. - Current market expectations indicate a 90.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in May, with a 9.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [11]. - Predictions for the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings suggest a significant likelihood of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% in May, with a 58.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut by June [12]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Following Trump's criticism of Powell, the dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, but later rebounded as Trump expressed optimism about negotiations [9]. - Trump's approval rating after his first 100 days in office dropped to 39%, marking the lowest for any U.S. president in the past 80 years [9]. - The article notes that the chaotic nature of Trump's administration has led to significant shifts in investor confidence and market dynamics, particularly regarding U.S. assets [9].

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件：4月28日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施。 稳内需、稳就业相辅相成。促消费政策侧重改善服务消费供给，稳投资侧重既有政策落地 消费方面，除了继续拨付消费品以旧换新补贴资金外，政策后续还将通过建立育儿补贴制度、创设专项再 贷款工具等多维发力。 发改委副主任赵辰昕透露第二批以旧换新补贴资金已拨付到位，后续仍有1400亿元 待分配额度。服务消费方面聚焦供给侧，央行副行长邹澜表示"着重从服务消费供给侧发力，聚焦文旅体 育、餐饮住宿、教育培训等重点领域，加大金融支持力度"，预计配套再贷款工具将加快落地。值得关注的 是，赵主任明确表示"将建立实施育儿补贴制度"，此举既可稳定人口长期趋势，又能短期提振相关消费。 投资方面，政策着重加快项目落地，通过政策性开发性金融工具破解资本金缺口问题。 本本次发布会实质 是对4月政治局会议决策的深化落实：一方面，发改委提出"力争6月底前下达2025年'两重'建设和中央预算 内投资全部项目清单"；另一方面，为解决项目建设资本金不足问题，发改委表示"设立新型政策性金融工 具"从投资方向 ...

Group 1 - The 100th anniversary of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions was celebrated, with Xi Jinping emphasizing the importance of uniting the working class to achieve national rejuvenation [2][3] - The State Council announced multiple policy measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality economic development [5][6] - The central government will support 60 counties in implementing small-scale water diversion projects to address rural water supply issues [7][8] Group 2 - A recent poll indicated that over 70% of Americans believe that the government's economic policies may lead to a recession in the short term, with 71% attributing inflation to tariff policies [20]

宏 观 研 究 稳就业稳经济新闻发布会 国 内 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 (8621)23297818× jiadx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 04 月 28 日 打好稳就业"组合拳" ——稳就业稳经济新闻发布会学习理解 事件：4 月 28 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施。 ⚫ 稳内需、稳就业相辅相成。促消费政策侧重改善服务消费供给，稳投资侧重既有政策落地 消费方面，除了继续拨付消费品以旧换新补贴资金外，政策后续还将通过建立育儿补贴制 度、创设专项再贷款工具等多维发力。发改委副主任赵辰昕透露第二批以旧换新补贴资金 已拨付到位，后续仍有 1400 亿元待分配额度。服务消费方面聚焦供给侧，央行副行长邹 澜表示"着重从服务消费供给侧发力，聚焦文旅体育、餐饮住宿、教育培训等重点领域， 加大金融支持力度"，预计配 ...