记者｜李益文 编辑｜叶映橙 2月24日，光模块龙头华工科技（000988.SZ）开盘后快速拉升，迅速封死涨停板。截至当日10时14分，公司股价报82.42元/股，涨停板上封单超17万手， 总市值攀升至829亿元。 | વિ 1 科技 11 | | --- | | 000000 | | 委比 | 100.00% 委差 | 143070 | Wind ESG评级 | BBB | | 详情 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 委主 | | - | रुक् | 3.90% 120日 | | 50.46% | | 季四 | l | - | 5日 | 7.12% 250日 | | 94.63% | | 卖三 | - | - | 20日 | 1.94% 52周高 | | 100.89 | | 賞ニ | l | - | 60日 | 15.55% 52周低 | | 32.18 | | 能 | l | - | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025Q3 | | 杀— | 82.42 | 141650 | EbS | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.32 | | ·· ...

IBM shares sank 13.2% to close at $223.35, marking their biggest single-day drop since October 18, 2000.What is COBOL?COBOL is a programming language widely used on IBM mainframes across banking, insurance and government systems. According to Anthropic, COBOL handles around 95% of ATM transactions in the US. However, it added that the number of people who understand the language keeps shrinking every year."Modernising a COBOL system once required armies of consultants spending ⁠years mapping ‌workflows. To ...

国泰海通指出，AI大模型营销力度加大，提高AI普及率，共同强化AI在金融IT开发与场景落地能力。 数字人民币正以关键基础设施身份拓宽场景边界，智能合约已在农民工工资发放等新场景落地。境外 RWA监管框架明晰落地，境内虚拟货币属非法金融活动，资金向合规金融科技板块转移。金融信息服 务行业监管趋紧，再融资一揽子措施优化，利好优质高研发企业融资发展。第三方支付行业牌照加速集 中，市场资源向头部靠拢。消费金融行业需精准赋能内需释放，头部效应进一步凸显，监管对合规风控 与股东资质的审核将持续趋严。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 港股互联网ETF国泰（513720）跟踪的是港股通互联网指数（931637），该指数从港股通范围内选取涉 及软件开发、家庭娱乐、互联网零售及服务等互联网相关业务的上市公司证券作为指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

特朗普关税政策引忧，美伊局势一触即发，石油天然气、黄金、化工等资源周期股全线大涨，通源石油、中曼石油、中海油服、湖南白银、白银有色、金 牛化工等多股涨停。 AI推动需求高增，光纤、CPO、PCB等算力硬件股同步走强，长飞光纤再度涨停，刷新历史新高；天孚通信、中际旭创、新易盛涨幅居前。 2月24日，A股三大指数均涨逾1%，超4200只个股飘红。油气领衔资源股全线上涨，AI应用类题材大幅回调。上证指数午盘涨1.17%报4129.78点，深证成 指涨1.82%，创业板指涨1.76%，北证50涨0.93%，科创50涨0.34%，A股半日成交1.52万亿元。 | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | 4129.78 | 14356.88 | 1810.53 | | +47.71 +1.17% +256.69 +1.82% | | +1.35 +0.07% | | 万得全A | 创业板指 | 北证50 | | 6851.92 | 3333.62 | 1544.00 | | +95.12 +1.41% +57.66 +1.76% | ...

到2028年6月，这个螺旋会把失业率推高到10.2%，标普500从2026年高点回撤38%。SaaS先崩，因为企 业能用AI自己搭系统替代订阅；外卖和支付平台跟着遭殃，AI代理没有消费惯性，会全网比价选最便 宜的，品牌黏性瞬间瓦解；最后传到私募信贷和房贷市场——当FICO 780的高薪白领被AI替代，他们 的房贷还是"优质资产"吗？ 坦白说，这个逻辑闭环是自洽的，它触碰到了市场最敏感的神经。但Jonestrading的策略师说得更直 白："一篇完全虚构的作品却让市场陷入了失控下跌"。这话点出了一个更值得琢磨的问题——市场为什 么这么脆？一份思想实验就能砸盘？ 答案其实藏在美股自身的叙事修正里：市场对AI叙事的信任正处在临界点。 近日，一份名为《2028全球智能危机》的报告在华尔街引发剧烈震荡。DoorDash、美国运通等软件与 支付板块遭遇恐慌性抛售，市场情绪之脆弱，仿佛一场"AI末日预言"正在逼近。然而，细读报告全文便 会发现，这并非一份严谨的预测，而是一场以2028年为视角的"思想实验"——它试图追问一个极端却无 法回避的问题：如果AI真的实现了它所承诺的一切，世界将会怎样？ 顺着这个思路往下想，你会发现 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.53% to 27,081.91 points, driven by a rebound in the technology sector[13] - European markets showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index down 0.5%, while the UK FTSE 100 index remained relatively stable, closing at 10,684.74 points[11] - US markets faced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.7% to 48,804.1 points, marking its largest single-day drop since January 20[11] Economic Indicators - China's GDP is projected to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, benefiting from a high base effect and increased consumer spending during the extended Spring Festival holiday[6] - The average daily cross-regional flow of people during the Spring Festival increased by nearly 9% compared to the previous year, boosting hotel and flight prices[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices surged by 2.87%, closing at $5,204.7 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties[32] - The US dollar index fell by 0.1%, with the euro and yen appreciating against the dollar[32] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year yield down 4 basis points to 3.44%, reflecting heightened risk aversion in the market[35] - Asian credit markets remained stable, with spreads narrowing by 1 basis point, as investors cautiously monitored US tariff developments[35] Sector Performance - In the US, technology and software stocks were heavily sold off, with IBM experiencing a drop of over 13%, while major tech stocks like Microsoft and Meta fell by approximately 3%[11] - In Hong Kong, the materials sector led gains with a 4.3% increase, while the energy sector saw minimal growth of 0.2%[14]

Key TakeawaysChina imposes strict export bans on 20 Japanese entities, including major industrial players, to curb what Beijing describes as Japan's "remilitarization."The White House is pressuring technology companies to pledge that massive AI data center expansions will not drive up electricity prices for American consumers.TD Cowen doubled its price target for Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT) to $70, signaling high confidence in a 2026 semiconductor "super-cycle."Panama has seized two strategic ports previous ...

01 金融期货策略建议 目 录 重点数据跟踪 02 股指关注两会预期，国债 关注供给压力 2026-02-24 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：四大股指均震荡运行，节前有所承压。 p 核心观点：中国商务部：敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的有关单边关税措施。美国海关称将从2月24日 起停止征收被最高法院裁定违法的关税。美民主党称将阻止任何延长关税企图，力推强制退款方案。欧 盟冻结对美欧贸易协议的批准程序，并警告称特朗普的新关税破坏双方贸易协定。美联储理事沃勒： CEO们称AI将致大量裁员，3月利率决议取决于2月劳动力数据。AI担忧加剧，贵金属走强，股指短期 或震荡运行，两会前或震荡偏强运行，可关注市场对两会预期的情绪。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示大盘指数或震荡运行。 p 策略展望：区间震荡。 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷，美联储降息节奏， ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 黄金：假期间震荡上行 白银：关注节后高开 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,126.12 | -0.38% | 1100.96 | -2.42% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,122.92 | -0.14% | 1096.99 | -2.49% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4941.40 | -3.26% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 4921.11 | -3.22% | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 20626 | -1.57% | 19188.00 | -8.35% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 19670 | -1.19% | 18201 | -8.62% | | | Comex白银2602 | 75.010 | -10.79% | - | ...