交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年4月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年3月PVC产量为206.9132万吨，环比增加10.25%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为77.35%，环比增加0.89%；电石法企业产量33.5757万吨，环比增加0.17%,乙烯法企业产 量11.612万吨，环比增加3.02%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所增加，预计排产少量减 少。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.09%，环比减少0.54个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为39.9%，环比减少0.95个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为48.44%，环比减少 1.87个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the PVC market comprehensively, including supply, demand, cost, and inventory. The overall view is that the PVC market has a neutral fundamental situation, with a bearish bias in the short - term based on the disk and main - position analysis. It is recommended to operate the PVC2509 contract in the 4883 - 4959 range, while continuously monitoring macro - policies and export trends [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In March 2025, PVC production was 2.069132 million tons, a 10.25% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.67%, a 4.18% month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 335,200 tons, a 3.86% month - on - month decrease, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 112,720 tons, a 5.13% month - on - month decrease. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to increase, with a slight decrease in production scheduled [6]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 48.64%, a 0.30 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin were 40.85% (unchanged), 50.31% (a 0.31 - percentage - point increase), 70.22% (a 0.34 - percentage - point decrease), and 78.03% (a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease) respectively, with the paste resin operating rate higher than the historical average, and the others lower [6][9]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 781 yuan/ton, a 7.40% month - on - month increase in losses, and the profit of ethylene method was - 628 yuan/ton, with losses unchanged month - on - month. Both were lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,202.95 yuan/ton, a 1.00% month - on - month increase in profit, also lower than the historical average [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 451,694 tons, a 0.40% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 340,681 tons, a 1.26% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 111,013 tons, a 2.34% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 450,600 tons, a 0.72% month - on - month decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 7.8 days, unchanged month - on - month [9]. - **Base - price difference**: On April 16, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,910 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract base - price difference was - 144 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - **Disk and Main - position**: The MA20 is downward, and the 09 - contract futures price closed below the MA20. The main position has a net short position, with an increase in short positions [8]. - **Expectation**: The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, while the cost of the ethylene method is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to increase, with a slight decrease in production scheduled. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. It is recommended to operate the PVC2509 contract in the 4883 - 4959 range [8]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, operating rates, and inventory data of different types of PVC (such as calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based), as well as month - to - month changes [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the base - price difference between PVC in East China and the main - contract closing price, which helps to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [18]. - **Price and trading volume**: It shows the price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from March to April 2025, providing information on market activity and investor sentiment [21]. - **Spread analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025, which is useful for spread trading strategies [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium carbide method - related**: Analyzes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, and their impact on PVC production cost and supply [26][29][31][34]. - **Supply trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, and production of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, as well as the overall PVC production, maintenance volume, and capacity utilization rate trends, showing the supply situation of the PVC market [38][41]. - **Demand trend**: Analyzes the trading volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between the PVC market and real - estate and infrastructure investment, reflecting the demand situation of the PVC market [44][47][49]. - **Inventory situation**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventories, and in - stock days of production enterprises, showing the inventory level of the PVC market [60]. - **Ethylene method - related**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method, reflecting the international trade situation of the PVC market [62]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and production data of PVC from February 2024 to March 2025, helping to understand the supply - demand balance of the PVC market [65].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年4月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年4月份国内沥青总计划排产量为228.9万吨，环比减少9.7万吨， 降幅4.1%，同比增加0.4万吨，增幅0.2%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为35.9583%，环 比增加2.327个百分点，全国样本企业出货18.89万吨，环比减少22.58%,样本企业产量为47.9 万吨，环比增加6.92%,样本企业装置检修量预估为83.6万吨，环比减少1.06%,本周炼厂有所增 产，提升供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.6%，环比增加0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为8.3%，环比持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: In April 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 4,000 tons (0.2%). This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the sample enterprise output decreased, and the device maintenance volume increased. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand side: The current demand of various types of asphalt and related products is lower than the historical average level. The overall demand is affected by the off - season and is less than expected and sluggish [7]. - Cost side: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 780.77 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%. The loss of asphalt processing increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - Expectation: The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. The inventory is continuously decreasing. The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2506 fluctuating in the range of 3299 - 3365 [9]. - Factors: Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in April 2025 decreased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate, output, and maintenance volume of sample enterprises changed this week. Next week, supply pressure may rise [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand of various types of asphalt and related products is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The processing profit of asphalt and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking changed, and the strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price [8]. - **Expectation**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [9]. - **Factors**: Bullish and bearish factors coexist, and the supply - demand situation is that supply pressure is high and demand recovery is weak [12][13][14] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices, inventories, and production data of different asphalt contracts and related products changed. For example, the prices of most contracts increased, the social inventory increased, the factory inventory decreased, and the port diluted asphalt inventory increased [17]. - **Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis** - **Basis**: On April 10, the Shandong spot price was 3425 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 93 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Spread**: Analyzed the spread trends of different contracts, the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil through multiple charts [24][27][30][34]. - **Fundamentals - Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: Analyzed the asphalt profit and the profit - spread trend between coking and asphalt through charts [41][44]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: Analyzed the supply - side situation from aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil, local refinery asphalt production, start - up rate, and maintenance loss volume through multiple charts [47][49][52][56][59][62][65]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory situation from aspects such as exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory inventory ratio, and import - export situation through multiple charts [68][73][76][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: Analyzed the demand - side situation from aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand, asphalt start - up rate, and downstream start - up situation through multiple charts [85][88][91][100][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Table**: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data from January 2024 to April 2025 [111][112].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-4-8） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：焦煤整体供应持稳。近日原料煤价格逐步企稳，且部分煤种小幅探涨，市场情绪稍有好转， 同时投机需求入市询货，产地出货较前期明显好转，支撑厂内库存不同程度回落，然近期关税问题影响 宏观情绪有所回落，市场仍存观望情绪；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1080，基差103；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存762.7万吨，港口库存362.7万吨，独立焦企库存729.6万吨，总样本库存1855万吨， 较上周增加29.6万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦企开工整体良好，但由于原料成本抬升，整体利润收窄，部分焦企开启焦炭首轮提 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 中期弱势 | 螺纹产量继续上升，铁水产量环比继续增加，目前铁水产量已处于同期偏 | | | | 高水平，在钢厂利润仍然不错的背景下，钢厂生产积极性较高。而需求端 | | | | 仍然处于较疲弱的状态，建筑钢材日成交有所回升，但需观察持续性，整 | | | | 体供需趋于宽松的矛盾有增强可能，中期走势偏弱。【3130，3200】 | | 热卷 | 中期偏弱 | 热卷基本面目前体现为供需两旺的状态，库存正常去化。禁止"买单出口" | | | | 或对后期钢材出口产生较大影响，叠加反倾销等预期，基本面有继续宽松 | | | | 的倾向，中期维持偏弱运行。【3300，3380】 | | 铁矿石 | 正套参与 | 本期发货环比增加，到货明显回落，港口小幅增库，钢厂去库，铁矿基本 | | | | 面阶段性好转。关注下游旺季成色，关税落地关键时点，扰动增加，短期 | | | | 矿价震荡偏强运行。操作上 5-9 正套参与，09 合约逢高空配【760,820】 | | 焦炭 | 低位运行 | 焦企出现提涨，提涨幅度不大 ...