Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - position advantage of asphalt futures 2601 contract has increased, and the adjustment pressure has weakened. The expansion of net long positions and more short - to - long operations than long - to - short operations indicate that the long - position is strengthening, and it is expected that the asphalt price will stabilize and strengthen after a short - term adjustment [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Market Performance of Asphalt Futures 2601 Contract**: Yesterday, the contract showed a pattern of increasing volume, decreasing positions, weakening in shock, and a slight decline. The price center dropped slightly to below 3275 yuan/ton, with the lowest reaching 3252 yuan/ton. The closing price fell 0.21% to 3274 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 1242 to 196026, a decline of 0.63% [2] - **Change in Positions of Top 20 Long and Short Seats**: The positions of the top 20 long and short seats showed a pattern of both long and short increasing. The long positions increased by 2924 to 143435, and the short positions increased by 2848 to 141415. The net long positions expanded to 2020 [2] - **Details of Long - Position Increase in Top 20 Long Seats**: Among the top 20 long seats, 8 increased long positions. 3 seats increased more than 500 long positions, including Guotai Junan Futures (3168), Huayuan Futures (1487), and Dongzheng Futures (841). 2 seats increased between 100 - 500 long positions, and the remaining 3 increased less than 100 [2] - **Details of Short - Position Increase in Top 20 Short Seats**: Among the top 20 short seats, 11 increased short positions. 4 seats increased more than 500 short positions, including Zheshang Futures (3272), Qiankun Futures (2457), Nanhua Futures (675), and Guolian Futures (1083). 5 seats increased between 100 - 500 short positions, and the remaining 2 increased less than 100 [3] - **Long - to - Short and Short - to - Long Operations**: Only 1 seat (Huatai Futures) carried out long - to - short operation, while 4 seats (Guotai Junan Futures, Dongzheng Futures, Galaxy Futures, Zhongtai Futures) carried out short - to - long operations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week, with a 2.05% MoM decrease in PVC production in September 2025 and a 0.00 percentage point MoM decrease in the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - Downstream overall开工率 increased by 0.27 percentage points to 49.86%, higher than the historical average. However, the current demand may continue to be sluggish, with shipping costs expected to rise and domestic PVC export prices being competitive [6]. - Both the calcium carbide method and ethylene method are in a loss - making state, with the loss increasing by 1.30% MoM. The double - ton spread profit increased by 0.80% MoM, but all are lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6][7]. - The overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is not smooth. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4747 - 4803. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, while negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory, slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [8][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% MoM decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, with a 0.00 percentage point MoM decrease. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% MoM decrease, and ethylene method enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% MoM increase. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream overall开工率 was 49.86%, a 0.27 percentage point MoM increase, higher than the historical average. However, the current demand may continue to be sluggish, with shipping costs expected to rise and domestic PVC export prices being competitive [6]. - **Cost Side**: The calcium carbide method profit was - 722.72 yuan/ton, with a 1.30% MoM increase in loss, lower than the historical average. The ethylene method profit was - 560.46 yuan/ton, also with a 1.30% MoM increase in loss, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,323.25 yuan/ton, with a 0.80% MoM increase in profit, lower than the historical average [6][7]. - **Overall Judgment**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bearish [6][9]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory, slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11]. 2. PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's market overview data, including various price indicators, month - to - month spreads, inventory data, downstream开工率, and profit data [14][15]. 3. PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, along with the PVC East China market price and the main contract closing price [17][18]. - **Volume and Price Analysis**: Shows the volume, price, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Presents the historical spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23][24]. 4. PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the price, cost, profit,开工率, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][27][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, production volume, and maintenance volume of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [38][39][40][42]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC, as well as the profit, cost, production volume, and apparent consumption of paste resin. Also, it analyzes relevant data in the real estate and infrastructure fields [44][45][46][48][50][52][54]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory data of the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [55][56]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads in the ethylene method [57][58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including production, import, export, demand, social inventory, and factory inventory [60][61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the oscillatory upward trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5. The core logic is the strong cost support [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to the Table 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is oscillatory and slightly stronger, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and slightly weaker. It is suggested to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that strong costs support the oscillatory recovery of steel prices [1] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills have increased production, with weekly output rising from a low level and high inventory, so the supply side offers limited benefits. Meanwhile, rebar demand has seasonally recovered, with high - frequency demand indicators rising from a low level, but still at a low level compared to the same period in recent years, and the downstream situation has not improved, so the strength of the peak season remains in doubt. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the improvement of the rebar fundamentals is limited, and the pressure to reduce inventory remains. The steel price is still prone to pressure. The relative positives are the warm market sentiment and the cost support brought by strong raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the production and sales data released by Steelhome today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance. Market sentiment is positive, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, but the improvement of the rebar fundamentals is limited under the situation of increasing supply and demand, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2601 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that market sentiment is positive, and the steel market is volatile and stable [1]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased. The production of construction steel mills has increased, and the weekly output has rebounded with relatively high inventory, increasing the supply pressure. The demand for rebar has continued to improve seasonally, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream situation has not improved, so the quality of the peak season is questionable. Under the situation of increasing supply and demand, the improvement of the rebar fundamentals is limited, the pressure of inventory reduction remains, and the steel price is still prone to pressure [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为76.57%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量31.628万吨，环比减少0.45%,乙烯 法企业产量15.036万吨，环比增加0.47%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计 排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.86%，环比增加.27个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为35.87%，环比增加.61个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为41.2%，环比增 加.2个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures contract ZN2512 will show a trend of fluctuating upward, with the LME zinc inventory and warrants continuing to decline while the SHFE warrants remaining at a high level [2][19]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons, and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 9.0885 million tons, and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 22,310, and the basis was 0, showing a neutral stance [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 28, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 35,250 tons, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,547 tons to 68,271 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Market Trend**: The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, suggesting a bullish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main players held a net short position, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. 3.2 October 28 Zinc Futures Market Quotes - The trading volume of zinc futures on October 28 was 201,703 lots, with a total trading value of 2.25645709 billion yuan. The open interest was 209,097 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots [3]. 3.3 October 28 Domestic Spot Market Quotes - **Zinc Concentrate**: The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 3,200 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 105 US dollars/thousand tons, both remaining unchanged [4]. - **Zinc Ingot**: The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 22,260 - 22,360 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,180 - 22,280 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,275 - 22,375 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,305 - 22,405 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 16 - 27, 2025) - As of October 27, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 164,700 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared to October 20 and an increase of 12,000 tons compared to October 23 [5]. 3.5 October 28 Zinc Futures Warehouse Receipt Report - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the SHFE on October 28 were 68,271 tons, an increase of 2,547 tons. Among them, Guangdong had 38,470 tons, and Tianjin had 29,801 tons [7]. 3.6 October 28 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 28, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 35,250 tons, with registered warrants of 28,425 tons and cancelled warrants of 6,825 tons, accounting for 19.36% [8]. 3.7 October 28 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - The prices of 50% zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 70 yuan/ton. For example, in Jiyuan, it was 17,390 yuan/ton; in Chenzhou, it was 17,590 yuan/ton [10]. 3.8 October 28 National Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 60 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting was 22,540 yuan/ton; from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 21,970 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 September 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In September 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15]. 3.10 October 28 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade varied by region, ranging from 3,000 to 3,900 yuan/metal ton. The imported processing fee for 48% grade was 105 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. 3.11 October 28 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2512, the total trading volume of members was 204,047 lots, an increase of 23,222 lots. The total long position was 83,603 lots, an increase of 523 lots, and the total short position was 78,964 lots, a decrease of 114 lots [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4718 - 4774. The cost is generally weakening, and the supply pressure has decreased this week, with a slight increase in production schedule expected next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The report suggests continuous attention to macro - policies and export dynamics [6]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [9]. 3. Summary According to Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% MoM decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, with no MoM change. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% MoM decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% MoM increase. Supply pressure decreased this week, and production schedule is expected to increase slightly next week with fewer planned maintenance [6]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.86%, a 0.27 - percentage - point MoM increase, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 35.87%, a 0.61 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 41.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 72.5%, unchanged MoM, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 58.76%, a 2.47 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [6]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton, a 1.30% MoM increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton, a 1.30% MoM increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2303.25 yuan/ton, a 1.00% MoM decrease in profit, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 76 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 333,800 tons, a 7.35% MoM decrease. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 252,100 tons, a 9.02% MoM decrease. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 81,700 tons, a 1.80% MoM decrease. Social inventory was 554,700 tons, a 0.26% MoM decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a 6.66% MoM decrease, showing a neutral signal [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different varieties and regions, such as the price of the 01 contract, inter - month spreads, and various inventory levels [13]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The data shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the spot price in East China and the futures price [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [22]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Materials - **Blue Coke**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of blue coke in Shenmu over multiple years [25]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the mainstream price in Shaanxi, cost - profit in Wuhai, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide over multiple years [28]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It presents the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt over multiple years [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: It includes the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory of caustic soda over multiple years [32][35]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC's calcium carbide method and ethylene method over multiple years [36][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) of PVC. It also presents the cost - profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, and some macro - economic data such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [42][44][50]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC over multiple years [54]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [56]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data from August 2024 to September 2025 [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Environmental and safety measures have tightened, coal mine复产 is below expectations, and production capacity release is limited. With stable coking and steel demand and some speculative traders entering the market, coal mines have new orders and smooth shipments, with some tight - resource coal prices rising. The basis shows spot premium, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net long. After the second round of coke price increase, coke enterprises' profit has slightly recovered, and the procurement of raw coal has increased. However, due to low profit and high raw material prices, coke enterprises' production increase willingness is low, and coking coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After two rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' profit has slightly recovered, and their production enthusiasm has increased, but the profit recovery is less than expected, so some enterprises still maintain production restrictions. Coke shipments are smooth, and inventory is tight. The basis shows spot discount, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short. Supported by steel mills' acceptance of price increases, coke enterprises are optimistic, and sales are good. However, considering the continuous decline in molten iron production and poor terminal demand, the room for coke price increase is limited, and coke prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - **Coking Coal**: On October 27, 2025, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at various ports are provided, with some prices rising. For example, the price of Russian main coking coal K4 at Caofeidian Port is 1340 with a rise of 115 [9]. - **Coke**: On October 27, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke from different ports and origins have increased. For example, the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Langya Port is 1530, up 40 [8]. 3.2 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [17]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Other Data - **Coking Coal**: The national 230 independent coke enterprise samples have a capacity utilization rate of 74.48% [39]. - **Coke**: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods is weakening. This week, the supply pressure has decreased, but it is expected to increase next week. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4679 - 4737. The report also lists the positive factors such as supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, as well as the negative factors such as the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [6] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, unchanged from last week. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene method enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [6] - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工rate was 49.86%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase, higher than the historical average. Downstream profiles开工rate was 35.87%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Downstream pipes开工rate was 41.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Downstream film开工rate was 72.5%, unchanged, higher than the historical average. Downstream paste resin开工rate was 58.76%, a 2.47 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous, but the current demand may remain weak [6] - **Cost**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2350.05 yuan/ton, unchanged, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6] - **Basis**: On October 24, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4670 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis was - 38 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [6] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 333,800 tons, a 7.35% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 252,100 tons, a 9.02% month - on - month decrease. Ethylene method factory inventory was 81,700 tons, a 1.80% month - on - month decrease. Social inventory was 554,700 tons, a 0.26% month - on - month decrease. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a 6.66% month - on - month decrease, showing a neutral situation [6] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract futures price closed below MA20, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The main position has a net short position, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [6] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Presents the previous day's PVC market data, including the values, previous values, and price changes of various indicators such as enterprises, partial monthly spreads, East China SG - 5, national calcium carbide method, national ethylene method, downstream开工rates, futures closing prices, and inventory data [12] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical data of PVC basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025 [15] - **Price and Volume Trend**: Displays the price, trading volume, and open interest changes of PVC futures from September to October 2025, as well as the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [18] - **Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical data of the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [21] 3.4 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工rate, inventory, and daily output of lancoke from 2020 to 2025 [24] - **Calcium Carbide**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [27] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [29] - **Caustic Soda**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [31][33][34] 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - Displays the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [35][36][39] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Displays the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工rate, and开工rates of various downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [41][42][49] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [53] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Displays the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025 [55] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025 [58]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, due to stricter safety and over - production inspections in major producing areas, coal mine production restrictions and maintenance have increased, leading to a supply contraction. Although downstream enterprises resist high coal prices, they are still making normal purchases, and coal mines have little inventory pressure. However, coking enterprises' raw material costs are high, downstream coking enterprise starts have slightly decreased, and pig iron production has continued to decline, pressuring the rigid demand for coking coal. Considering the recent positive performance of the futures market and the implementation of the second round of coke price increases, some coking enterprises' procurement enthusiasm remains high. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [3]. - For coke, the continuous rise in coking coal prices has significantly increased the coking enterprises' coal - input costs, narrowing their profit margins. After the second - round coke price increase, there is an expectation of profit repair. Currently, coking enterprises' production cuts and maintenance have not expanded further, and they are maintaining previous production levels. With supply contraction and downstream steel mills' rigid demand for restocking, coking enterprises are shipping smoothly and have no inventory pressure. Although steel mills' profits are low, the blast furnace operating rate remains high, and some steel mills are still urging deliveries. It is expected that coke prices will remain stable in the short term [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Tightening supply due to inspections, good procurement by coking enterprises, and low coal mine inventory support coal prices; considered bullish [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1300, basis is 51.5, spot premium to futures; considered bullish [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; considered bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; considered bullish [3]. - Main positions: Net long in the main coking coal contract, with a decrease in long positions; considered bullish [3]. - Expectation: Price may remain stable in the short term [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Rising coking coal prices have squeezed profit margins, but there is an expectation of profit repair after the second - round price increase. Supply contraction and downstream restocking lead to smooth shipments; considered neutral [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1640, basis is - 117.5, spot discount to futures; considered bearish [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; considered bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; considered bullish [7]. - Main positions: Net short in the main coke contract, with a decrease in short positions; considered bearish [7]. - Expectation: Price may remain stable in the short term [7]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising pig iron production, difficult supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish factors: Rising pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills, partial over - consumption of restocking demand [9]. Prices - On October 24, 2017:30, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Rizhao Port was 1490, and the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched metallurgical coke increased by 20 to 1710 [10]. - Imported coking coal prices varied by origin, brand, and port, with some prices rising [11]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory - Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. Steel Mills' Inventory - Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].