英国央行货币政策委员泰勒：当前的风险在于通胀目标被低估。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces increasing risks of inflation remaining below target due to economic weakness in the second quarter [1] Group 1 - The risk of inflation being below the target is greater than the risk of it being above the target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has conducted a strategic assessment of its monetary policy in response to significant changes in the market environment, including geopolitical conflicts, rapid advancements in digitalization and artificial intelligence, demographic shifts, climate crises, and a profound restructuring of the international financial system [1][2]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Strategy - The ECB's assessment addresses the need to optimize its economic evaluation framework, policy tools, and decision-making mechanisms in a "non-transparent and unstable" new normal [1]. - A significant adjustment in this assessment is the clarification and reinforcement of the inflation target, acknowledging past "substantial and persistent deviations" from the target [1]. Inflation Target - The inflation target is set at "significantly above 0%" (specifically 2%), which is crucial for ensuring that policy rates have sufficient "buffer space" to respond to negative shocks [2]. - The ECB emphasizes that the 2% target provides a "clear anchor" for inflation expectations while demonstrating pragmatic flexibility [2]. Policy Tools and Decision-Making - Adjustments to policy rates remain the primary tool, but the ECB is prepared to utilize other instruments such as long-term refinancing operations, asset purchases, negative interest rates, and forward guidance when necessary [3]. - The ECB has formally integrated scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis into its policy decision-making process, moving away from solely relying on baseline forecasts [3].

Core Viewpoint - ECB President Lagarde expressed caution regarding future monetary policy, emphasizing that while inflation targets have been met, the overall mission is not complete [1][2]. Inflation - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2%, aligning with the ECB's target, indicating that inflation goals have been achieved [2][3]. Interest Rate Path - Lagarde stated that the interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, but no pre-commitment to future rate changes will be made, with decisions to be based on data from each meeting [3][4]. - Current market expectations suggest a nearly 50% probability of another rate cut in September [3]. Neutral Interest Rate - Lagarde downplayed the significance of discussing the Eurozone's neutral interest rate, suggesting it may be higher than in the past and that current discussions are somewhat unrealistic given the existing economic conditions [4]. Dollar Status - Lagarde indicated that 2025 could be a pivotal year for the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, acknowledging existing fractures but noting that significant changes will take time [5][6]. - The ECB sees an opportunity for the euro to play a larger international role amid a weakening dollar and urges governments to advance reforms for deeper capital markets [5]. Digital Euro - Lagarde reiterated the importance of a digital euro, emphasizing that currency is a public good and warning against the privatization of money, which could undermine monetary policy and national sovereignty [7]. Challenges and Opportunities in Europe - Lagarde highlighted significant challenges facing Europe, such as reduced protection from the U.S. and declining cheap energy, but also noted these could present new opportunities [8]. - She expressed hope that 2025 will be a transformative year for lifestyle and business models in Europe, contingent on political action [8].

Domestic News - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing the use of medical insurance data for drug research and development [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, starting from July 1, 2025, due to recent international oil price changes [1] - The People's Bank of China Credit Center will implement new credit service fee standards starting July 1, 2025, allowing two free personal credit report inquiries per year, with a fee of 5 yuan for subsequent inquiries [1] - According to the China Banking Research Institute, the GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is expected to be around 5.4%, with a decline in growth for the second half, projecting GDP growth of 5% and 4.6% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively, leading to an annual growth of approximately 5% [1] Real Estate Sector - In the first half of 2025, the total land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 506.55 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [2] - The Beijing second-hand housing market showed a robust recovery in the first half of 2025, with a total of 90,035 transactions, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [2] International News - The European Central Bank decided to maintain its inflation target at 2%, aligning with the Eurozone's inflation rate of 2% reported in June [4] - The Slovak Prime Minister expressed concerns over the EU's proposal to stop importing Russian gas, indicating potential delays in voting on the sanctions if adequate compensation is not provided [4]

智通财经7月1日电，欧洲央行副行长GUINDOS表示，欧洲央行非常接近通胀目标。 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：通胀低于2%目标的可能性相当有限。 ...

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill proposed by President Trump faces delays in the Senate, with a vote postponed to June 30, and is estimated to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade according to the Congressional Budget Office [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that there is no reason to increase the issuance of long-term national debt given current yield levels, but hopes for a decline in yields as inflation slows [1] - The European Central Bank maintains a 2% inflation target and considers the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) as an appropriate measure, while also suggesting the inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs in inflation statistics [3] Group 2 - Germany's June CPI rose by 2% year-on-year, reaching the European Central Bank's target level for the first time in nearly a year [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve official reiterated expectations for a rate cut this year, with three rate cuts anticipated next year [2] - The U.S. White House announced the resumption of trade negotiations with Canada following the cancellation of the digital services tax [1]

欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩：可能面临从两个方向上更大的偏离2%的通胀目标的可能性。 ...

6月30日消息，欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，欧央行当前采取的利率立场被认为是正确的，且这一利率 政策与实现通胀回落至2%的目标相一致；鉴于目前存在的不确定性，必须保留所有关于利率调整的选 项。（新华财经） ...