每经AI快讯，美元指数日内大跌0.74%，报97.92点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index (DXY) continues to decline, dropping below 98, with a daily decrease of 0.61% [1] - Spot gold has surpassed 3360 USD/ounce, increasing by 0.6% on the day [1] - Traders are increasing bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, with expectations of two rate cuts by the end of the year [1] - Jerome Powell indicated that changes in risk balance could justify adjustments in policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a significant short-term decline of 50 points [1] Group 1 - The decline in the DXY indicates potential volatility in the currency market, which may impact various sectors and companies reliant on dollar-denominated transactions [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news revolves around the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, which is expected to significantly influence the dollar's performance [1] - The U.S. dollar index is currently strong, hovering near a two-week high, with key resistance levels at 99.320 and 99.838, while support levels are at 98.317 and potentially 97.80 [1] - Market expectations are mixed regarding Powell's stance on interest rate cuts, with most institutions anticipating a neutral position without clear signals, despite concerns about a dovish tone [1] Group 2 - The August PMI data from S&P Global indicates strong momentum in both U.S. manufacturing and services, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 53.3, significantly above expectations, while the services PMI remains robust at 55.4 [2] - However, initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 235,000, surpassing expectations, indicating a cooling labor market, with continuing claims rising to 1.972 million [2] - The dollar index experienced fluctuations, reaching an 11-day high, supported by favorable economic data and a cooling expectation for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - Technical indicators for the dollar index show strong upward momentum, with the RSI indicating that bullish forces remain strong despite a slight pullback [3] - The MACD indicator suggests that bearish momentum has weakened, indicating a shift towards bullish dominance [3] - Key support and resistance levels for the dollar index are identified, with short-term support at 98.317 and potential resistance levels at 98.950, 99.177, and 99.838 [3]

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated August 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation and central bank gold purchases support gold prices, but geopolitical situation easing weakens safe - haven demand, and dollar fluctuations limit the upside of gold prices. The market awaits Powell's speech at the global central bank conference. Gold ETFs and long - term structural buying remain the pillars of demand [3] Details - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related indicators such as COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in graphs [4] - Gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories in SHFE and COMEX are shown [12][14][15] Group 3: Copper Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes next week and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices. The strong support of the dollar index puts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [16] Details - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, price changes, and spreads, are provided. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,690 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [17][20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate processing fees, and warehouse receipts data are also presented [27][31][33] Group 4: Aluminum Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For aluminum, the US tariff expansion has a certain impact on China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Aluminum prices are likely to correct rather than reverse considering the September peak - season expectation and rate - cut expectation. For alumina, the fundamentals are weak, with supply in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, and its futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price [35][36] Details - Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. For instance, the latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,630 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [37][49][55] Group 5: Zinc Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, smelting profit has recovered, and the supply is gradually changing from tight to excessive. The mine supply is loose. On the demand side, the traditional off - season is weak. LME inventory is decreasing with a certain squeeze - out risk. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate based on macro - observation [62] Details - Zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are shown. The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16% [63][71][75] Group 6: Nickel Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventory. Nickel iron is still relatively firm in the short term. Stainless steel prices are weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are stable. Future trends depend on macro - level guidance [78] Details - Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data are presented. The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,610 yuan/ton [79] Group 7: Tin Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro data from the US is in line with expectations. The repeated delay of Myanmar's tin mine full - resumption of production supports tin prices. In the short term, tin prices may fluctuate [92] Details - Tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indicators such as LME tin spreads are provided. The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 265,930 yuan/ton [93][98][102] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market's sensitivity to news is decreasing. In the short term, prices may rebound due to supply - side disturbances and enter a wide - range oscillation [107] Details - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,960 yuan/ton [108][111][115] Group 9: Silicon Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The increase in polysilicon production schedules boosts the demand for industrial silicon. In the medium term, the downside space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the future [117] Details - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices, spreads, and production and inventory data are presented. The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.27% [117][118][132]

Group 1 - The US manufacturing PMI rose significantly to 53.3, indicating a recovery in industrial momentum [1] - Initial jobless claims increased to 235,000, the highest in eight weeks, suggesting a cooling labor market [1] - The mixed economic signals present a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing inflation pressures against employment slowdown risks [1] Group 2 - The probability of a rate cut in September decreased from 82% to 74%, reflecting a slight reduction in market confidence [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that the September meeting remains "open," highlighting the contradictory economic signals [1] - Boston Fed President Collins suggested that if the labor market continues to face pressure, a rate cut in September remains a reasonable option [1] Group 3 - The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK rose to -17 in August, the highest in a year, benefiting from the Bank of England's rate cuts [1] - Despite the rise in consumer confidence, concerns about persistent inflation, rising employment risks, and fiscal pressures limit the sustainability of this recovery [1] - The GBP/USD exchange rate shows signs of weakness, currently trading below the 20-day moving average [1] Group 4 - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, while the RSI remains around 45, indicating a neutral to weak price range [2] - A rebound above 1.3450 could test the resistance at 1.3520, while a drop below 1.3380 may accelerate the decline towards 1.3300 [2] - The current rebound in GBP/USD appears to be more of a technical correction rather than driven by fundamental factors [2]

Group 1: Report's Overall Information - Report authors include Yang Lina, Hu Bin, and Liang Haikuan [1] - Report is a daily strategy for non - ferrous metals issued on August 21, 2025 [1][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The non - ferrous metal sector continues to oscillate. The market is in a state of sorting and repeating under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The focus remains on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. If hawkish information persists, there is a risk of the non - ferrous metal sector weakening further [11] - For specific metals: Copper is expected to see an upward shift in its price center; zinc has a mid - term short - selling opportunity; the aluminum industry chain is generally bearish; tin is suitable for high - selling and low - buying; lead can be bought slightly at low prices; nickel and stainless steel are bearish in the mid - term [3][4][5][7][8] Group 3: Investment Ratings (Not Mentioned in the Report) Group 4: Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metal sector continues to oscillate. The market is affected by China's monetary policy, real - estate policies, geopolitical issues, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The market remains cautious before the geopolitical situation becomes clear [11] - **Investment Recommendations for Specific Metals** - **Copper**: With the improvement of supply and demand fundamentals and the approaching of the peak season and Fed rate cuts, the price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][13] - **Zinc**: With increasing supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short on rallies in the mid - term [4][13] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly this week. It is recommended to short on rallies or wait and see [5][13][14] - **Tin**: With a pattern of weak supply and demand, it is suitable for high - selling and low - buying [6][14] - **Lead**: With weak prices and slow recovery of demand, it is recommended to buy slightly at low prices and use a wide - range option double - selling strategy [7][15] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel has an oversupply situation, and stainless steel has weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the mid - term [8][15] Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: Copper closed at 78,540 yuan/ton with a 0.13% decline; zinc at 22,240 yuan/ton with a 0.11% decline; aluminum at 20,590 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; etc. [16] Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different net long - short positions and changes. For example, TV (SI2511) has a strong short - position of the main force, and its net short - position is 46,925, with the short - position of the main force decreasing [18] Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Copper's Yangtze River spot price is 78,850 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase; zinc's Yangtze River 0 zinc spot average price is 22,240 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; etc. [19][21] Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: The report provides charts on inventory changes, copper concentrate smelting fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper prices [23][25] - **Zinc**: Charts on inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fees, etc. are presented [27] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Charts on inventory and price relationships, spot premium and discount trends are provided [29][35] - **Other Metals**: Similar industry - chain - related charts are provided for tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy [37][41][44] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents charts on the ratio of domestic to foreign prices, premium and discount relationships, and price differences between different contracts for various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, tin, etc. [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For different non - ferrous metals like copper, zinc, and aluminum, the report provides charts on historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, option trading volume and open - interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open - interest [72][74][77]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is stabilizing at a high level, currently reported at 98.67, with a slight increase of 0.01%. However, there are indications that the dollar may weaken further as the Federal Reserve appears ready to restart interest rate cuts despite persistent inflation [1]. Group 1 - Recent rebound in the dollar is attributed to accelerated business activity and a significant increase in manufacturing orders, which reached an 18-month high, offsetting some weak employment data and reinforcing the dollar's safe-haven status [1]. - Concerns over disappointing July non-farm payroll data and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to market expectations for quicker and larger rate cuts, creating fertile ground for dollar depreciation amid rising inflation [1]. Group 2 - Technically, the dollar index faced resistance below 98.70 and found support above 98.15, suggesting a potential for an upward trend after a short-term decline. If the index stabilizes above 98.30 today, the upward target could be between 98.80 and 99.00 [1]. - Short-term resistance levels for the dollar index are identified at 98.75-98.80, with significant resistance at 98.95-99.00. Conversely, short-term support is noted at 98.30-98.35, with important support at 98.00-98.05 [1].

前圣路易斯联储主席、下任美联储主席热门人选布拉德呼吁今年降息100个基点，并在2026年进一步降 息。布拉德周四在接受采访时表示："利率目前有点高，我认为到2026年可以下调约100个基点——我认 为这将从9月会议的降息开始，之后今年可能会有进一步行动。 周四（8月21日）美元指数（DXY）延续涨势，盘中上涨0.46%至98.673，连续第二个交易日收于50日简 单移动平均线（98.100）上方。这一走势印证了近期美元指数的技术面强势，且使该指数距离99.177- 99.320的关键阻力区间仅一步之遥。 美元走势支撑位目前明确位于98.317-97.859区间，而97.626的关键摆动低点则标志着下行风险所在。日 线图显示，美元指数仍有进一步上行空间，尤其是若鲍威尔对市场日益升温的降息预期不加以反驳，上 行趋势或更明显。 技术动能指标好坏参半，5日、10日、21日移动均线攀升21日布林带区间收缩，显示底部正在形成，初 步支撑位是上日低点98.18，然后是本周低点97.80，上周高点98.67是第一阻力位，下一道阻力是8月5日 高点99.08。 周五（8月22日）亚市早盘，美元指数持稳98.60附近，昨日美元指 ...

美元指数在98至99区间内震荡，截至9时40分，报98.6405。 招商证券认为，7月以来在美元未进一步走低的前提下，人民币中间价保持稳步升值，预计9月美联储降 息前后人民币结汇规模或再度放大，同时若央行继续坚持以市场供求为基础的调控政策，人民币汇率就 有望重返6时代，中国资产吸引力大概率提升。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡）8月22日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅下 跌，报7.1848，上一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1778。截至9时40分，离岸人民币对美元报7.18645。 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1321，较上一交易日下调34个基点。 ...