↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ A股三大指数今日集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌0.98%，收报4082.47点；深证成指跌0.75%，收报13917.75点；创业板指跌1.41%，收报3164.37点。 沪深京三市成交额23882亿，较昨日缩量7698亿。 行业板块多数收跌，电网设备、国防军工、电力设备、小金属板块涨幅居前，航运港口、贵金属、保险、石油石化、白酒、物流板块跌幅居前。 个股方面，上涨股票数量超过1700只，近50只股票涨停。电网设备板块逆市大涨，迦南智能、通光线缆、安靠智电20cm涨停。军工板块逆势上涨， 无人机、船舶方向领涨，航天彩虹3天2板，中无人机涨超15%。油气股探底回升，准油股份3连板，洲际油气7天5板，水发燃气4连板，山东墨龙3连 板。下跌方面，航运板块大幅下挫，连云港、南京港、凤凰航运跌停。煤炭板块集体走弱，云煤能源跌停。 01 航运今日领跌！ 今日航运股普遍跌超9%，石油石化则有分歧，部分个股在早间探底后回升，收盘涨跌不一。 | 港国航运 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1366.03(-74.36 -5.16%) | | | | | 讨 ...

中东地缘政治风险升级，全球油价大幅上涨 2 月 28 日美国和以色列联合发动对伊朗打击行动，伊朗方面启动"真实承诺-4"行动对美、以进行反击，中东地缘政 治冲突迅速升级。受武装冲突影响，中东地区原油运输受到极大阻碍，伊朗方面已关闭霍尔木兹海峡阻止所有商船通 行，沙特、伊拉克、卡塔尔、阿联酋等中东产油国暂时无法外运。受此影响，尽管 OPEC 在上周日已同意在 4 月每日 增产 20.6 万桶原油，最近两个交易日全球油价仍涨幅明显，布伦特原油累计上涨超 9%，价格一度涨超 82 美元/桶。 油价上涨正符合美国利益，但与 2022 不同，本轮伊朗冲突未必造成海外通胀与利率的大幅上行 本次美国、以色列和伊朗的冲突大概率不会像 2022 年的俄乌冲突一样引发海外通胀和利率的大幅上行。在 2022 年 2 月俄乌冲突爆发之前，受疫情对供应链扰动、以及美国政府连续三轮的紧急救助计划向居民发放支票的影响，美国通 胀本就存在内生的上行压力。但当前的情况与 2022 年时有着很大的差异，目前美国劳动力市场在 AI 对劳动力替代效 应的压力下趋冷，美国 CPI 同比增速自 2025 年 11 月以来便处于下行趋势中，近期美国的关税 ...

Global Assets: Rebalancing Continues - The current market rebalancing is based on internal and external recovery, with AI trading entering its second phase, leading to a focus on the actual impact of AI on various industries [3][13] - From February 16 to February 20, 2026, global risk assets showed an overall upward trend, but internal performance was mixed, with industrial, financial, and energy sectors gaining favor [3][13] - The focus has shifted from whether AI is a bubble to identifying the real industrial impacts and critical supply-demand issues as AI transitions from a thematic to a macro factor [3][13] Manufacturing Cycle Further Rising - The U.S. GDP data for Q4 2025 showed slower growth primarily due to government spending disruptions, while AI-related investments remained strong [4][25] - Non-AI and residential investment growth is showing signs of bottoming out, indicating a broader recovery in investment activities beyond just AI [4][25] - The February manufacturing PMI data indicated a recovery in global manufacturing, with Europe exceeding expectations and the U.S. maintaining expansion, suggesting a positive trend in manufacturing cycles [4][25][34] Commodities: Transitioning from Financial Overtrading to Industrial Pricing - Recent fluctuations in industrial and precious metals prices are attributed to macro and industrial events, with a return to real supply-demand signals expected [5][44] - Geopolitical risks continue to support industrial metal prices, while demand from tech giants for AI investments remains robust, indicating a potential new support for demand [5][44] - Historical data suggests that current copper and aluminum price ratios are low compared to historical manufacturing PMI levels, indicating potential for price recovery [5][44][45] Focus on Global Physical Assets vs. Chinese Assets - The core of market rebalancing is not about the existence of an AI bubble but rather the macro impacts of AI combined with monetary and major country policy choices [6][56] - The relative smooth path for future U.S. interest rate cuts is expected to support the recovery of the global manufacturing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of Chinese asset capacity [6][56] - Specific investment recommendations include physical assets like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors benefiting from capital inflows and consumption recovery in China [6][56]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of the gold bull market in the 1970s, highlighting that gold prices surged from $35/oz to $850/oz, a rise of over 2300% due to macroeconomic factors such as high inflation and geopolitical tensions [4][5]. - The bull market is divided into two phases: the initial rise from 1971 to early 1974 driven by oil crises, and the accelerated surge from 1976 to 1980, with speculative behavior evident in the latter phase [5]. - Key indicators that signaled the peak of the gold market in the 1970s include actual interest rates and the dollar index, which are crucial for understanding gold pricing dynamics [7]. Group 2 - The current environment for gold differs from the 1970s, as inflation is easing and the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, while the stock market is at historical highs [9]. - The article notes that the expiration of the 50-year oil dollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in June 2024 could disrupt the dollar's dominance in oil trade, although the dollar still accounts for 80% of global oil transactions [10][11]. - The global reserve currency share of the dollar has decreased to 56.3%, the lowest since 1994, while gold's share has risen to 24%, indicating a structural shift in reserve asset preferences [11]. Group 3 - Current indicators suggest that the gold bull market is driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of Fed easing, with a weak dollar further enhancing gold's appeal [12]. - The Dow/Gold ratio indicates that the stock market still dominates, and there are no signs of a peak in gold prices similar to the 1970s [12]. - The article concludes that gold has likely not yet reached its peak, with the potential for significant price increases driven by increased participation from retail and institutional investors [15][16].

Group 1 - The historical context of the "petrodollar" system established by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in the 1970s is paralleled with the current opportunity for China to create a "rare earth RMB" system due to its dominance in rare earth resources [1][3] - China's absolute advantage in rare earth production, accounting for 68.6% of the global market in 2023, positions it as a critical player in modern industrial supply chains, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and AI [4][5] - The urgency of the West's "de-China" efforts is highlighted by the challenges faced in establishing alternative supply chains, with U.S. and other countries lagging significantly behind China in rare earth production capabilities [5][6] Group 2 - The concept of a "rare earth dedicated RMB stablecoin" is proposed, which would require all rare earth transactions to be settled in this currency, creating a substantial demand for RMB in the global market [6][7] - The integration of smart contracts with "payment upon delivery" clauses is suggested to enhance transaction efficiency and reinforce China's dominance in the supply chain [7] - Recent actions by global automotive manufacturers to secure rare earth supplies underscore the critical nature of China's resources, providing a strong foundation for the promotion of the rare earth RMB stablecoin [7]