Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January increased by 0.2% month-over-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.3% [1] - Year-over-year, the January CPI rose by 2.4%, below the forecast of 2.5% and the prior figure of 2.7% [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations and up from 0.2% previously [1] - On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI also rose by 2.5%, in line with expectations but slightly down from 2.6% [1] Market Expectations - Following the CPI data release, the market anticipates a 61 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by 2026, an increase from the prior expectation of 58 basis points [1] - Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investment at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, indicated that the CPI data did not show the feared strength, making the Fed's "normalization" rate cut path clearer [1] - The Fed's decision will heavily depend on the labor market's performance, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is highly sensitive to signs of weakness in the job market [1] - The expectation remains that the Fed will implement two rate cuts this year, with the next anticipated in June [1]

当地时间2月13日，受美国公布的1月CPI数据影响，黄金价格快速回升。截至当日收盘，伦敦现货黄金 和纽约商品交易所期货黄金价格均重返每盎司5000美元大关。 值得注意的是，黄金从每盎司5600美元附近的历史高位回调后，市场波动性急剧上升。本周国际金价再 次经历震荡行情，在突破每盎司5100美元后于周四跌超3%，随后在周五美国CPI数据公布后收复部分失 地。继1月末金价大跌后，2月份已经连续两周回升，累计上涨超过3%。 美联储降息预期升温，黄金成为最大赢家 华泰证券宏观研究团队预计，美联储在6月前将暂缓降息，待新任主席上任后的下半年或将降息1—2 次。 春节期间这些事件将决定金价走势 春节前黄金市场的剧烈波动让投资者陷入持仓纠结。春节期间，国内贵金属市场休市9天，而国际市场 正常交易。如何在当前大幅震荡的黄金市场中规避风险，增厚收益，是持金过节还是落袋为安，成为大 家关心的问题。 回顾历年春节期间国际黄金走势发现，黄金价格在春节呈现以"窄幅震荡、温和波动"为主的特征，极少 出现极端单边行情，且上涨概率略高于下跌概率。此外，由于春节国内市场休市，对全球黄金市场的流 动性也将有所影响，因此欧美市场行情也难以完全撬动 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀回落，降息无忧 ——美国 1 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 ——美国 1 月 CPI 数据点评 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀回落，降息无忧 2] [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月，美国通胀低于预期。具体来看：1）食品价格增速放缓，能源价格显著回落；2） 二手车价格大幅回落，核心商品通胀压力可控；3）机票上涨带动通胀反弹，但住房通胀回落， 核心服务通胀压力有限。往前看，我们仍维持此前对年内降息节奏的判断：1）短期，鲍威尔剩 余任期内降息暂缓已是基线预期，就业超预期对此并无影响；2）5 月沃什就任后，考虑到其"降 息+缩表、缩职能"的基本政策主张，加之届时关税对通胀的影响大概率基本显现，降息阻碍不 大，再度开启降息的可能性较大，年内预计累计降息至少 50B ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the inclusion of CATL (宁德时代) in the Hang Seng Index, along with other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Laopu Gold, while Zhongsheng Group is removed, increasing the number of constituent stocks from 88 to 90, effective March 9 [1][4]. - CATL was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 20, 2025, and has seen a stock price increase of over 90% within the year, reaching a market capitalization of over HKD 2.7 trillion [3]. - As of February 13, 2025, CATL's H-shares closed at HKD 517.5, while Luoyang Molybdenum and Laopu Gold closed at HKD 21.72 and HKD 738.5 respectively, with respective declines of 6.94% and 3.97% [3]. Group 2 - The adjustment of index constituents is expected to trigger passive fund reallocation, potentially leading to increased trading volumes for the affected stocks as the effective date approaches [4]. - The Hang Seng Index series is gradually incorporating more new economy sectors such as renewable energy, new consumption, and biotechnology, while reducing the weight of traditional industries, enhancing the growth potential and investment attractiveness of the index [4]. - As of December 2025, the total assets under management for products tracking the Hang Seng Index series amounted to approximately USD 117.7 billion [4]. Group 3 - Since the beginning of 2026, there has been a structural divergence in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.65% while the Hang Seng Tech Index has declined by 2.82% [5]. - In 2025, both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced gains of 27.77% and 23.45% respectively [5]. - Analysts suggest that the consumer sector, currently at relatively low valuations, may continue to rise due to increased consumption activity leading up to the Spring Festival, while precious metals and energy sectors are expected to experience upward volatility amid geopolitical uncertainties [5].

具体来看：1）1月美国CPI能源项整体环比-1.5%（前值0.3%），对通胀形成明显降温作用。能源商品 价格环比-3.3%（前值-0.3%），分项下的汽油环比-3.2%（前值-0.3%），燃油环比-5.7%（前值前 值-0.8%）。能源服务环比0.2%（前值1.0%），分项下的电力环比-0.1%（前值0.2%）；燃气服务环比 1.0%（前值3.7%）。1月，布伦特原油价格从63美元/桶左右持续修复，截至2月12日已涨价至71美元/ 桶，考虑到国际原油价格传导有一个月左右的时滞，近月能源项存在上行压力。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：招商宏观静思录 事件 2026年2月13日美国劳工统计局发布：1月CPI环比0.2%（前值0.3%），核心CPI环比0.3%（前值 0.2%）；CPI同比2.4%（前值2.7%），核心CPI同比2.5%（前值2.6%）。 核心观点 美国1月CPI同比2.4%，低于市场预期的2.5%，主要的降温项来自能源价格和二手车。核心通胀环比 0.3%符合预期，房租项走势温和，部分服务价格涨幅持续。尽管通胀降温，由于非农企稳和美联储官 员表态等因 ...

1 月美国 CPI 数据显示，通胀整体仍具韧性+放缓。CPI 同比增 2.4% ，低于预期的 2.5%，前值+2.7%；环比 +0.2%，低于预期和前值的+0.3%。核心 CPI 同比增 2.5%，符合预期，前值 2.6%；核心 CPI 环比+0.3%，符 合预期，高于前值的 0.2%。 能源价格增速显著回落，环比-1.5%，其中，汽油（-3.2%）和燃油（-5.7%）价格回落为主要背景。 食品价格环比为+0.2%，前值为 0.7%。其中，家庭食品（food at home）和餐馆用餐价格增速均显著回落，环 比分别为+0.2%和 0.1%，前值分别为 0.6%和 0.7%。 1 月核心商品环比为 0%，持平于前值，核心服务价格有所回弹，环比从 0.3%回升至 0.4%。 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 美国 1 月通胀相对温和 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn ...

2月14日，欢迎来到股市早观点，我们来看看今天有哪些消息热点？ 数据方面，美国劳工统计局周五公 布，1月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，较上月回落0.3个百分点。美国1月通胀表现相对温和， 缓解了对通胀大幅上升的担忧，提振了市场对美联储将降息的预期。利率互换交易员预计在12月前进行 第三次降息的可能性约为50%。据报道，交易员在数据显示通胀温和后加大对美联储降息的押注，一些 投资者在周四的大幅抛售后逢低买入黄金。 不过，通胀率仍持续高于美联储2%的年度目标。 芝加哥联 储行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，如果通胀在跌向2%目标水平的轨道上，美联储可以进一步降息，但目前 并非如此。 "我认为利率可以从当前水平进一步下调，甚至可能再降几次。但前提是通胀回到迈向2% 的轨道上，"古尔斯比周五接受采访时表示。"目前我们没有在回到2%的轨道上。 关注我，更多股市资 讯告诉你！ ...

Group 1 - Meituan expects a net loss of approximately RMB 233 billion to RMB 243 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, a stark contrast to a net profit of RMB 358.08 billion in 2024, indicating a significant reversal of nearly RMB 600 billion [9][11][24] - The primary reason for this drastic change is the expected operating loss of RMB 68 billion to RMB 70 billion in its core local business segment, which had an operating profit of approximately RMB 524.15 billion in 2024 [11][26][28] - The company attributes this loss to intensified competition in the industry and a strategic increase in ecosystem investments, which include enhanced marketing efforts, rider incentives, and resource allocation to improve operational efficiency [13][26][28] Group 2 - Meituan's stock price has dropped 22.5% since its peak in January, closing at HKD 82.5 on February 13, with its market capitalization briefly falling below HKD 500 billion [7][22] - The company anticipates that the trend of losses will continue into the first quarter of 2026, although it maintains that its operational status remains stable and it has sufficient cash to support business development [13][28] - The Hang Seng Technology Index, which includes Meituan and other internet companies, has seen a decline of 6.26% since February, reflecting broader market challenges [28][29]

Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI year-on-year growth fell to 2.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 2.5%[9] - The month-on-month CPI growth decreased to 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, also surpassing market expectations of 0.3%[9] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.5%, while month-on-month growth increased to 0.3%, aligning with market expectations[9] Core Inflation Insights - The decline in overall inflation was primarily driven by falling energy and food prices, with energy prices dropping 1.5% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decrease[11] - Super core inflation, excluding food, energy, used cars, and rent, showed significant pressure, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, the highest since September 2022[18] - Core services, excluding energy services, saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with notable rebounds in transportation and education services[21] Future Outlook - Future inflation may experience volatility, with potential rebounds in energy prices and used car prices expected in the coming months[23] - The average effective tariff rate in the US was 9.8% as of November 2025, indicating limited tariff increases, which may not significantly impact inflation in the short term[26] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain at two times in 2026, with the first cut anticipated in June 2026[26] Risk Factors - Risks include potential geopolitical conflicts leading to surges in oil prices and unexpected changes in tariff or fiscal policies that could drive inflation higher[29]

Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%[2] - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, matching expectations but slightly down from 2.6% in December 2025[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by falling food and energy prices, with food prices rising by 0.2% month-on-month compared to 0.6% previously, and energy prices decreasing by 1.5% month-on-month, down from a 0.3% increase[2] - Energy commodity prices fell by 3.3% month-on-month, while energy services saw a slight increase of 0.2%[2] Core Inflation Risks - Core goods prices showed upward pressure, particularly in clothing (up 0.3% month-on-month) and new car prices (up 0.1%) despite a significant drop in used car prices (down 2.0% year-on-year)[2] - Core services prices increased slightly by 0.4% month-on-month, influenced by higher transportation costs due to severe weather conditions[2] Market Reactions - Following the release of the January inflation data, the market reacted with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rise in both US stocks and bonds, a decline in the US dollar index, and an increase in gold prices[2] Uncertainties and Future Outlook - The report highlights significant uncertainties in the sustainability of the January inflation data, primarily due to weather-related disruptions and the potential for core inflation to rise again[2] - The upcoming tax refund season and fiscal subsidies may stimulate consumer demand, posing risks for core goods and services inflation to remain sticky[2]