从近期人民币汇率变动情况来看，美元兑人民币汇率多数时间跟随美元指数走势，但在贬值压力增加时 则颇有韧性。近期人民币升值最直接的推力来自美元的走弱。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉新京报贝壳财经记者，10月15日，人民币汇率中间价上调的直接原因 是隔夜美元指数的下行。 10月14日晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在公开讲话中，重申了美国就业市场面临"相当大"的下行风险，这一 表态巩固了市场对美联储本月将继续降息的预期。他还表示，美联储未来几个月可能会停止缩减资产负 债表。 鲍威尔释放的信号加重了美元的压力，美元随后震荡走软，当天美元指数下跌0.23%。9月以来，美元 指数呈现震荡下行的走势特征，指数中枢延续趋势性回落态势。 10月15日，人民币兑美元中间价小幅上调26点至7.0995元，创2024年11月6日以来新高。 人民币汇率中间价调升受内外因素共振驱动。整体上看，近期在全球汇市波动加大过程中，人民币中间 价向偏强方向调整的力度有所加大。 美联储主席释放降息信号，美元指数失守关键点位 中国银行研究院研究员吴丹对新京报贝壳财经记者表示，中美贸易争端升级引发市场情绪波动，美元指 数承压。叠加美联储降息预期升温、特朗普政府 ...

事实上，近段时间以来，市场对于人民币逆势强势的表现多有关注，并认为人民币或进入新一轮升值周 期。 人民币汇率释放强力"稳"信号。 10月15日，人民币汇率中间价报7.0995，较前一日上调26点，为去年10月下旬来首次升至7.10上方。 尽管近期国际范围内不确定性因素增多，但有关"人民币升值窗口开启"的讨论在逐步升温。后续看，专 家认为，多重因素有望支持人民币汇率保持稳中偏强。 中间价保持偏强 人民币汇率稳定有内在动力 "中间价收复了7.10关口，并创下了自2024年10月21日以来的升值新高。"跨境金融研究院发布观点称， 这一现象值得关注，而且，市场实时即期汇率也在中间价的引导下呈现升值态势。 10月15日，离岸人民币对美元汇率直线拉升，日内上涨约200点；在岸人民币对美元汇率则持稳于7.12 附近。截至13时30分，离岸、在岸人民币对美元汇率分别报7.1286、7.1256。 "我们可以观察到反映境内美元流动性的关键指标-境内金融机构外汇存款同比增速在今年向上突破了人 民币汇率升贬周期切换的阈值6%—10%水平，表明人民币汇率进入升值周期。"兴业研究外汇商品部首 席汇率研究院郭嘉沂表示，今年美国进入第二库 ...

周三（10月15日）亚洲时段，美元延续下滑跌破99关口，最新美元指数报98.933，跌幅0.11%，周二 （10月14日）晚间美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔释放信号称，10月降息仍在考虑之中，量化紧缩政策也可 能接近尾声，美元随后震荡走软，美元指数险守99关口上方，最终收跌0.21%，报99.05。 美国政府停摆导致美联储制定货币政策所依赖的关键经济数据中断发布，这也意味着市场失去了预判美 联储动向的常规工具。在市场普遍认为"无数据即无政策行动"的预期下——至少对美联储即将召开的会 议如此，这种不确定性反而助推美元走强。 美元指数技术分析 从技术上来看，美指周二上涨在99.50之下遇阻，下跌在98.95之上受到支持，意味着美元短线上涨后有 可能保持下跌的走势。如果美指今天上涨在99.35之下遇阻，后市下跌的目标将会指向98.85--98.70之 间。今天美元走势短线阻力在99.30--99.35，短线重要阻力在99.60--99.65。今天美指短线支持在98.85- -98.90，短线重要支持在98.70--98.75。 鲍威尔指出停摆前数据显示经济增长可能超预期，但他同时强调"美国就业市场下行风险已有所加剧"。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index decreased by 0.21% to 99.05, indicating a general weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.33% against the dollar, reaching a rate of 1.1608 [1] - The British pound fell by 0.10% to 1.3322 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar declined by 0.45% to 0.6486 [1] - The US dollar gained 0.06% against the Canadian dollar, with a rate of 1.4045, and decreased by 0.39% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.8010 [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.02%, influenced by positive comments from ECB President Lagarde which strengthened the euro and negatively impacted the dollar [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is bearish for the dollar, with potential negative implications for the US economy if prolonged [1] - The US September NFIB small business optimism index fell -2.0 to 98.8, below expectations of 100.6, indicating weaker small business sentiment [3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - The US-China trade conflict has escalated, with China sanctioning five US units of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean Co., reflecting ongoing tit-for-tat measures [3] - The trade tensions have broader implications for the global economy, as vessels are responsible for over 80% of international trade [3] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Outlook - The euro is up by +0.10% after recovering from early losses, supported by ECB President Lagarde's optimistic remarks about the Eurozone economy [4] - The German October ZEW expectations of economic growth survey rose +2.0 to 39.3, although this was weaker than the expected 41.1 [5] - Political uncertainty in France, with a potential no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Lecornu, is putting pressure on the euro [5]

Group 1 - The core message indicates that the U.S. job market is facing increasing risks, prompting the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate cuts to stabilize the economy [1] - Anna Paulson, the new president of the Philadelphia Fed, suggests that tariffs may raise inflation but their impact is not as lasting as previously expected, influencing future monetary policy discussions [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that President Trump plans to meet at the end of October to ease tensions caused by tariff threats and export controls [1] Group 2 - Thierry Wizman, a foreign exchange and interest rate strategist, notes that trade tensions could affect the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) upcoming interest rate decisions [1] - If high tariffs are still a possibility by October 29, the FOMC may be less inclined to cut rates, especially with U.S. inflation remaining "sticky" [1]

她补充说，如果经济像我预期的那样发展，我们今明两年的货币政策调整将足以使劳动力市场状况接近 充分就业。 周二（10月14日）亚市早盘，美元延续上一交易日上行态势，最新美元指数报99.277，涨幅0.02%，美 联储"新人"支持今年再降息两次，昨日美元指数回升至99关口上方，最终收涨0.44%，报99.263。 美元指数技术分析 2026年FOMC票委、费城联储主席保尔森暗示，她倾向于今年再降息两次，每次25个基点，因为货币政 策在制定时应忽略关税对消费者价格上涨所带来的影响。 保尔森表示："对我而言，关键在于，我没有看到那种可能使关税引发的物价上涨演变为持续性通胀的 条件——尤其是在劳动力市场方面。" 保尔森说，政策制定者上个月降息25个基点的决定是"有道理的"。 在货币政策适度紧缩的情况下，她主张按照美联储上一份经济预测摘要的思路放松货币政策。这些预测 的中位数支持美联储在年底前再降息两次，每次25个基点。 从技术面来看，美元指数(DXY)初步阻力位见于99.563。若突破该水平，可能为指数打开上行通道，向 8月1日高点100.257迈进。 下行方面，美元走势支撑位首先见于98.714(斐波那契水平)，其次 ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，10月13日纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.43%报99.26，非美货币多数下跌，欧元兑美元跌0.45% 报1.1570，英镑兑美元跌0.20%报1.3334，澳元兑美元涨0.60%报0.6515，美元兑日元涨0.76%报 152.3140，美元兑加元涨0.25%报1.4037，美元兑瑞郎涨0.62%报0.8041。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 12th day, with increasing uncertainty for hundreds of thousands of federal workers already on unpaid leave, as bipartisan negotiations remain stalled [1][2] - The shutdown began on October 1, leading to temporary layoffs in various departments, including Education, Treasury, and Homeland Security, with significant layoffs expected if the situation continues [1][3] - The previous shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 lasted 35 days and resulted in an estimated $3 billion loss to the U.S. GDP, highlighting the economic impact of prolonged government closures [2][3] Group 2 - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to significant job losses in key sectors reliant on government funding, such as research, education, and infrastructure, causing long-term damage to the labor market [3][4] - The shutdown is expected to delay or cancel the release of critical economic data, affecting foreign businesses operating in the U.S. and complicating the Federal Reserve's economic assessments [4][6] - Standard & Poor's Global estimates that each week of the shutdown could reduce U.S. GDP by 0.1% to 0.2%, with potential long-term repercussions on market stability and investor confidence [4][5] Group 3 - The shutdown's impact is expected to extend beyond the U.S., with the European economy potentially losing €4 billion after two weeks and €16 billion after eight weeks, indicating a nonlinear effect on global markets [5][6] - Analysts predict that a prolonged shutdown could lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in dollar-denominated assets, creating negative ripple effects in global markets [6]

ATFX汇市前瞻：本周即将发布的经济数据重要性由高到低分别为：美联储褐皮书、美联储主席鲍威尔 讲话、欧佩克与IEA原油报告，接下来做逐一解读。 来源：ATFX 本周四2：00，美联储将公布年内第七份褐皮书。这份褐皮书将揭示9月3日至今，美国12个联邦储备区 的就业和通胀变化情况。10月3日，美国劳动统计局公布了9月份非农就业报告，其中新增非农就业人口 为5万人，虽然高于前值2.2万人，但依旧处于历史相对低位。非农就业报告与褐皮书的调查时间重叠， 所以褐皮书中对就业市场的描述预计同样偏悲观。9月份美国CPI年率将于10月24日公布，晚于褐皮书 发布时。所以本周四的褐皮书重点内容为十二个储备区的物变化。如果物价持续低迷，则美联储的降息 政策大概率延续，美元指数或受利空冲击。 ▲ATFX图 本周二23：30，美联储主席鲍威尔将在全美商业经济协会举办的活动上发表讲话。本次讲话的主题为： 宏观经济展望和美联储货币政策，地点为宾夕法尼亚州费城。鲍威尔的任何讲话都会引起市场的剧烈反 应，尤其是讲话涉及货币政策时，本次讲话也不例外。考虑到9月份非农就业报告较差，且10月份的一 年期通胀预期从4.7%下降至4.6%，关键经济数 ...