Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.12% to 98.28, while most non-US currencies experienced a decline [1] Currency Performance - The euro depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1647 [1] - The British pound fell by 0.08% against the US dollar, with a rate of 1.3493 [1] - The Australian dollar decreased by 0.57% against the US dollar, reaching 0.6455 [1] - The Japanese yen saw a decline of 0.12% against the US dollar, trading at 147.6755 [1] - The Canadian dollar appreciated by 0.47% against the US dollar, with a rate of 1.3869 [1] - The Swiss franc increased slightly by 0.03% against the US dollar, trading at 0.8078 [1]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 周二纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数涨0.11%，报98.280点，全天呈现出V形反转，整体交投区间为98.317- 97.940点，北京时间18:27刷新日低。彭博美元指数涨0.15%，报1207.04点，日内交投区间为1203.70- 1207.34点。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the **Chinese Yuan (RMB) exchange rate** and its relationship with **cross-border capital flows** and macroeconomic factors, particularly between **China and the United States**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is influenced by four main factors: value, supply and demand, expectations, and institutional factors. These include the economic fundamentals of China and the US, cross-border capital flows, and policy interventions [1][4][18]. 2. **Predicted Exchange Rate Trends**: The RMB is expected to experience a pattern of appreciation followed by depreciation in the second half of the year, with overall two-way fluctuations. Short-term appreciation is anticipated, peaking around 7.1, before potentially falling to 7.25 by the fourth quarter [1][5][14]. 3. **US and China Economic Synchronization**: Both countries are expected to experience a similar economic rhythm, with the US showing resilience despite recession fears, while China may see a slowdown followed by stabilization due to potential policy stimuli [6][14]. 4. **Inflation Trends**: US inflation is projected to rise, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) possibly exceeding 3% in the latter half of the year, while China's inflation is not expected to rise significantly in the short term. This widening inflation gap may exert depreciation pressure on the RMB [7][8][14]. 5. **Impact of Exports on RMB**: There is a strong correlation between China's exports and the RMB exchange rate. If US-China tariff negotiations reach an agreement, it may reduce the urgency of exports, leading to potential depreciation of the RMB [9][14]. 6. **US and Chinese Bond Yields**: US Treasury yields are expected to rise to a range of 4.5% to 5.0%, while Chinese bond yields are anticipated to fluctuate less. The widening interest rate differential will likely put depreciation pressure on the RMB [10][14]. 7. **Dollar Index Influence**: The dollar index has shown significant fluctuations, and its expected rise may indirectly affect the RMB, leading to depreciation pressure [11][12][14]. 8. **Institutional Adjustments**: When the RMB approaches critical levels, China may implement measures such as foreign exchange reserve requirements and macro-prudential adjustments to stabilize the currency [13][14]. 9. **Cross-Border Capital Flow Changes**: There is a structural shift in cross-border capital flows from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to short-term securities and credit, with a decline in US capital attractiveness and an increase in emerging markets' appeal [2][15][16]. 10. **Stablecoin Development**: The growth of stablecoins, currently valued at approximately $270 billion and expected to reach $3.7 trillion by 2030, is reshaping global cross-border investment dynamics [17]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The RMB exchange rate's fluctuations are closely tied to the broader economic and geopolitical landscape, including trade negotiations and monetary policy decisions in both the US and China [1][4][18]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends and cross-border capital flows as they can significantly impact the RMB's value and the overall economic environment [2][15][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - The current market liquidity remains abundant, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high. Under the influence of internal and external positive factors, market sentiment is good, and stock index futures may continue to run strongly. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short-term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward movement. The market risk appetite is still high, and the gold price may be disturbed in the short term, but the probability of an interest rate cut in September is still high, providing support for the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term. The silver price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, but will be mainly based on fundamental logic in the medium term. The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September boosts the copper price, while the domestic copper downstream demand is weak, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly. The recent decline in the US dollar index, but the pressure on the downstream demand of aluminum, leads to the weak operation of the aluminum price. The production and inventory of alumina both increase, with a weak fundamental situation, but the rainy season in Guinea reduces the bauxite shipment volume, and considering the anti-involution market may continue, attention can be paid to the opportunity of laying out long positions in the far month. The zinc price is under great pressure due to the increase in inventory and the recovery of supply. Considering the potential risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, short selling should be cautious, and the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions can still be continuously concerned before the peak season. The macro-optimistic sentiment cools slightly. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remains stable, and the demand side performs generally. The nickel price runs in a wide range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes. It is recommended to focus on short-term trading and wait for the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions. In the long term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The macro-optimistic sentiment cools slightly. The price of raw material nickel iron rises steadily, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and steel mills resume production one after another after profit repair. Attention should be paid to the actual production situation of steel mills. The stainless steel futures run in a volatile manner in the short term, dominated by the macro situation. It is recommended to focus on short-term trading, wait for the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage between futures and spot. Fundamentally, tin is still in a situation of weak supply and demand. After a full correction, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price. The supply of industrial silicon in the southwest and northwest regions resumes, with great hedging pressure and strong market sentiment. The polysilicon has an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits. The resource end of scrap steel is frequently disturbed, and the short-term replenishment volume of the downstream is large, with limited subsequent replenishment space. The cost of electric furnace valley electricity provides a short-term support range for rebar, and the upward driving force follows coal. The upward driving force of hot-rolled coil follows the cost support anchored by coal, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The near-month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity in the far month. The anti-involution in ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is long-term, and in the short term, it is mainly affected by macro positives, with prices showing a strong trend. The glass still has a weak reality but strong expectations, with a pattern of near weakness and far strength. The soda ash still has a weak reality, affected by supply disturbances and macro positives, also showing a pattern of near weakness and far strength. The high-level meeting mentioned "anti-involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the supply-side reform in 2015. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short term at the trading level, short positions on the market should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers should seize the opportunity of premium to establish positive arbitrage positions between futures and spot. The logic of coke is the same as that of coking coal, and the opportunity of selling hedging when the futures price has a premium should be mainly grasped. The MPOB report is less bearish than expected, and the production in August may be affected by heavy rainfall, with a short-term positive expectation difference. Indonesia's official announcement of implementing B50 next year brings a long-term "strong expectation" for palm oil. The expected reduction in soybean arrivals, the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, and the opening of the export trade flow bring the expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, leading to a revaluation of soybean oil. The USDA's reduction of the new crop area in August and the Sino-US trade relationship lead to the firmness of the CBOT soybean price and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybean exports, supporting the upward movement of soybean oil from the raw material cost side. The reduction in the production of rapeseed in Russia and Ukraine and the less-than-expected increase in the production of sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region support the price of rapeseed oil in the new crushing season. The Ministry of Commerce's preliminary ruling that Canadian rapeseed is dumped will increase the customs duty deposit from August 14, bringing the expectation of a significant reduction in subsequent rapeseed supply. Cotton increases in positions and rises in the short term, dominated by the logic of a short squeeze in the near month. The height of the 01 contract is limited, and attention should be paid to the time window from the end of July to the beginning of August and the release of the sliding duty quota. White sugar runs strongly, with the bottom divergence rebound of raw sugar and the peak season demand, but the height is limited, and attention should be paid to the range fluctuation between 5600 - 6000. The supply and demand of old crops tend to be tight, but the pressure of warehouse receipts is large, and the expected rebound space of C09 is limited. Considering the expected selling pressure of new-season corn during the autumn harvest and the reduction in planting cost, a bearish view is maintained for the C11 and C01 contracts. The supply and demand balance sheet of new-season US soybeans is tight. Under the current Sino-US trade policy, the expectation of the Brazilian premium remains firm. Under the expectation of an increase in import cost, MO1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, but currently, the pressure on the domestic spot is still large, and the low basis restricts the increase of the futures price in the short term. Overall, the idea of buying on dips should be adopted. The external quotation of pulp is raised, with the price of Brazilian pulp increasing by $20 per ton in August, and the domestic inventory shows a reduction; but the recent decline in commodity futures is expected to lead to a volatile operation. The fundamentals of the log spot have improved recently, mainly reflected in the increase in the external quotation and the reduction of domestic port inventory; however, the delivery pressure in Chongqing restricts the motivation of log bulls to take delivery, and it is expected to fluctuate between 810 - 840 yuan/m³. The near-month contract of live pigs is dragged down by the spot and is relatively weak. The inventory will gradually recover in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the weight reduction and consumption situation. There are peak season expectations for the 11 and 01 contracts. The meeting between the US and Russia has not reached an agreement yet, but the progress is good; OPEC+ continues to increase production; the peak consumption season in Europe and the US has reached its peak, and there is a weakening trend later. The short-term supply and demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent, following crude oil; the cost disturbance and the recovery of demand balance each other, with limited fluctuations. The rainfall in the domestic rubber-producing areas causes disturbances, and the raw material cost provides strong support; the inventory reduction speed is slow; and the state reserve conducts a large amount of dumping. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the fundamental situation of crude oil remains loose; the fundamental situation of synthetic rubber is severe, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand; BR runs stably in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance situation of butadiene rubber plants. The supply of PTA has shrunk, and the crude oil price has slightly declined. The downstream load of polyester has decreased to 88%. The PTA port has a slight reduction in inventory, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The coal price has slightly increased. The overall performance of the commodity sentiment has slightly weakened. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants has been postponed, the supply side has shrunk, and the market expects a reduction in future arrivals. The short fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, and the maintenance of short fiber factories has increased. Under the condition of a high basis, the cost of short fiber is closely followed, and there is no independent market in the market currently. The price of pure benzene has slightly declined, the shipment of styrene is active, and the crude oil price has weakened. The operating load of styrene plants has recovered, and the basis of styrene has significantly weakened. The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, with limited upward space; there is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. The macro sentiment is warm; there are many maintenance operations; the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price fluctuates weakly. The maintenance support is limited; the orders are mainly for rigid needs; the macro situation is warm, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The macro sentiment is warm; the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period; the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, with the futures price fluctuating strongly. The spot is about to enter the peak season; the spot price has fallen to a low level; the coking coal price has risen again, and the macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the fundamental situation of crude oil remains loose; the market expects a reduction in future arrivals. The supply of short fiber has shrunk, and the downstream load of polyester has decreased. The PTA port has a slight reduction in inventory, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The coal price has slightly increased, and the overall performance of the commodity sentiment has slightly weakened. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants has been postponed, and the supply side has shrunk. The short fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, and the maintenance of short fiber factories has increased. Under the condition of a high basis, the cost of short fiber is closely followed. The price of pure benzene has slightly declined, the shipment of styrene is active, and the crude oil price has weakened. The operating load of styrene plants has recovered, and the basis of styrene has significantly weakened. The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, with limited upward space; there is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. The macro sentiment is warm; there are many maintenance operations; the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price fluctuates weakly. The maintenance support is limited; the orders are mainly for rigid needs; the macro situation is warm, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The macro sentiment is warm; the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period; the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, with the futures price fluctuating strongly. The spot is about to enter the peak season; the spot price has fallen to a low level; the coking coal price has risen again, and the macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, the supply of crude oil is abundant, and the synthetic rubber market is severe, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid needs. PTA supply contracts, crude oil prices fall slightly, polyester downstream load drops to 88%, PTA port inventory decreases slightly, and polyester replenishment willingness is low. Coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment weakens, overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance is postponed, and supply contracts. Short - fiber warehouse receipt registration is low, factory maintenance increases, and with a high basis, cost follows closely and there is no independent market. Pure benzene prices fall slightly, styrene shipments are active, crude oil prices weaken, styrene plant load recovers, and the basis weakens significantly. Urea export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient with limited upside, but there is anti - involution and cost support below. Macro sentiment is warm, there are many maintenance operations, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and prices fluctuate weakly. Maintenance support is limited, orders are for rigid needs, macro is warm, and futures prices fluctuate strongly. Macro sentiment is warm, maintenance decreases, downstream enters the off - season, supply pressure increases, and futures prices fluctuate strongly. Spot is about to enter the peak season, spot prices are low, coking coal prices rise again, and macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, the supply of LPG is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand has a repair expectation; the warehouse receipts have reached a new high, and attention should be paid to the main contract delivery and the spread between September and October. The signal of the peak of the freight rate of the European container shipping line appears; the European ports are still congested; and there are many additional ships in August. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock index futures may continue to run strongly due to abundant market liquidity and positive factors [1] - Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are reminded [1] - Gold price may be disturbed in the short term but has support from the expected interest rate cut in September [1] - Silver price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term and follow fundamental logic in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price may fluctuate strongly due to the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and weak domestic downstream demand [1] - Aluminum price runs weakly due to the pressure on downstream demand [1] - Alumina has a weak fundamental situation, but the rainy season in Guinea and the anti - involution market bring opportunities for long positions in the far month [1] - Zinc price is under pressure from inventory increase and supply recovery, and short - selling should be cautious [1] - Nickel price runs in a wide range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - Stainless steel futures run in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] - Tin provides an opportunity of going long at a low price after a full correction [1] Black Metals - Rebar is supported by the cost of electric furnace valley electricity, and the upward driving force follows coal [1] - Hot - rolled coil is slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward driving force follows coal - anchored cost support [1] - Iron ore has an upward opportunity in the far month, although the near - month is restricted by production cuts [1] - Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon prices are expected to be strong due to long - term anti - involution and short - term macro positives [1] - Glass and soda ash show a pattern of near weakness and far strength [1] - Coke and coking coal: attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling hedging when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil has a short - term positive expectation difference and a long - term "strong expectation" [1] - Soybean oil is re - valued due to the expected inventory reduction in the fourth quarter and cost support [1] - Rapeseed oil is supported by production reduction and supply reduction expectations [1] - Cotton is affected by the short - squeeze logic in the near month, and attention should be paid to the time window and quota release [1] - White sugar runs strongly but with limited height [1] - Corn: C09 has limited rebound space, and C11 and C01 are bearish [1] - Soybean: MO1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and a dip - buying strategy is recommended [1] - Pulp is expected to fluctuate due to price increase and inventory reduction [1] - Log is expected to fluctuate within a certain range due to improved fundamentals and delivery pressure [1] - Live pigs' near - month contracts are weak, and there are peak - season expectations for 11 and 01 contracts [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and its related products (fuel oil, LPG) are affected by OPEC+ production increase and market demand trends [1] - Rubber (natural rubber, BR rubber) is affected by factors such as rainfall, inventory, and supply - demand fundamentals [1] - PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Urea has limited upward space due to export and demand, but has support below [1] Other - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may peak, with congested ports and additional ships [1]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 3335.50 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of London Silver is 37.73 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 1335.00 with a change of -18.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1126.00 with a change of -14.00 [1] - The latest price of WTI Crude Oil is 62.80 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 9757.00 with a change of -7.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 97.85 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.17 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.36 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 147.16 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.95 with a change of 0.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 15786.61 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SHFE silver inventory is 1138.43 with a change of -3.13 [1] - The latest gold ETF holding is 965.37 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest silver ETF holding is 15071.31 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE silver inventory is 1368.95 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE gold deferred - fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE silver deferred - fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1]

本报记者 刘 琪 银河证券研报认为，《报告》再次释放维护汇率市场基本稳定的政策信号，有助于引导市场预期，对可 能面临的全球金融市场不确定性再次上升的冲击作出前瞻性应对。 展望后期，温彬预计，人民币汇率将维持双向波动格局，稳汇率重要性仍在。下半年，国内稳增长政策 继续对人民币形成支撑，同时市场预计美联储9月份降息概率较高，中美利差收窄也有助于人民币稳汇 率。但也应注意的是，全球地缘冲突风险仍存，或对汇率形成阶段性扰动。在此背景下，央行将继续加 强外汇市场管理，通过"三个坚决"有效引导市场预期；同时，央行稳汇率政策工具箱充足，如逆周期因 子、离岸央票等，预计人民币汇率将保持在合理均衡水平的基本稳定。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，后续美元指数的变化以及国内政策或成为人民币汇率的重要影响因 素。若美联储如期降息，美元指数或因此走弱，对于我国证券账户的资本流入有望形成一定利好。央行 稳汇率政策张弛有度，将为人民币汇率的韧性提供有力支撑。 今年以来，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升。Wind资讯数据显示，截至8月18日16时30分，在岸人民币对美 元汇率收盘报7.1792，年内涨幅1.64%；离岸人民币对美元汇率报7.182， ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.31% to 98.16, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - Most non-US currencies declined, with the euro falling by 0.36% to 1.1662 against the dollar [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.39% to 1.3503 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar dropped by 0.25% to 0.6492 [1] Group 2 - The US dollar appreciated by 0.47% against the Japanese yen, reaching 147.8600 [1] - The US dollar experienced a slight decline of 0.11% against the Canadian dollar, settling at 1.3803 [1] - The US dollar rose by 0.08% against the Swiss franc, with a rate of 0.8075 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.31% to 98.151 points, indicating a significant upward trend during the trading session [1] Group 1 - The trading range for the ICE Dollar Index was between 97.871 and 98.186 points throughout the day [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.19% to 1205.17 points, with a trading range of 1201.93 to 1206.08 points [1] - A notable surge in the dollar index occurred before 16:00 Beijing time, contributing to the overall upward movement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown a steady appreciation against the US dollar in 2023, supported by both domestic policies and international factors [1][2] Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of August 18, 2023, the onshore yuan closed at 7.1792 against the US dollar, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 1.64%, while the offshore yuan was at 7.182, with a year-to-date rise of 2.11% [1] - Since August 4, both onshore and offshore yuan rates have fluctuated below 7.2 [1] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Yuan Appreciation - Internationally, concerns over the sustainability of US fiscal policies, including large tax cuts and spending bills, have supported the yuan's appreciation [1] - Domestically, ongoing counter-cyclical and growth-stabilizing policies, stable economic data, and advancements in technology and industry have bolstered growth potential [1] - The "anti-involution" trend has stabilized prices, and improved risk appetite in financial markets has provided a solid foundation for the yuan's exchange rate [1] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive fluctuations [1] - The PBOC's recent report signals a commitment to maintaining basic stability in the exchange rate, which is crucial for guiding market expectations amid rising global financial uncertainties [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The yuan is expected to maintain a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with domestic growth policies continuing to support the currency [2] - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could narrow the interest rate differential between China and the US, further stabilizing the yuan [2] - The PBOC has sufficient tools, such as counter-cyclical factors and offshore central bank bills, to support the yuan's resilience [2]

Group 1 - The core CPI in the US for July 2025 ended a five-month streak of underperformance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 0.32% [1] - The US economy is facing uncertainties, with signs of weakening consumer market momentum and cautious corporate investment, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts despite current inflation data [1] - Market expectations have shifted towards a "rate cut anticipation leading to a reinforced soft landing expectation," resulting in declines in the 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index, while 10-year TIPS, 10-year Treasury yields, and US stocks have risen [1] Group 2 - The July PPI data indicates that tariff pressures may have been transmitted to US wholesalers, with a month-on-month increase of 0.95%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.2%, and core PPI rising by 0.92%, the highest since 2022 [2] - The impact of tariffs on wholesale, retail, and end-consumer prices remains uncertain, and the market's expectation for a September rate cut is not guaranteed due to the variability in data quality [2] - In optimistic scenarios, the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice this year, while in pessimistic scenarios, only once in October; looking ahead to mid-2026, a new Fed chair may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy with potential rate cuts ranging from 4 to 6 times next year [2] Group 3 - Prior to the September FOMC meeting, the dollar index and 2-year Treasury yield are expected to rise, reflecting a correction of overly optimistic rate cut expectations [3] - Following the September FOMC, market bets on rate cuts in 2026 are anticipated to increase, with concerns about the Fed's independence and debt sustainability likely to widen the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries [3] - Recent discussions between Trump and Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict may enhance short-term market risk appetite, potentially leading to downward pressure on gold prices as safe-haven sentiment diminishes [3]