Group 1 - The Nasdaq futures fell over 1% and the S&P 500 index futures dropped by 0.75% [1] - U.S. natural gas futures prices increased by 16% due to the impact of a winter storm [1] - Spot gold surpassed the $5000 per ounce mark, while spot silver briefly exceeded $106 per ounce, gaining nearly 3% during the day [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index declined by 0.52%, with the euro rising by 0.52% against the dollar to 1.1888 [1] - The dollar to yen exchange rate fell by 0.89% to 154.32, currently reported at 154.77, as the market remains alert to potential intervention by the Japanese government in the currency market [1]

美元指数跌0.42%。美元兑日元跌0.89%报154.32，欧元兑美元上涨0.4%报1.1873。 ...

格隆汇1月26日｜据央视，上周美元指数大幅下挫，黄金、白银等贵金属同步迎来大涨，其中黄金涨幅 达8.4%，白银涨幅更是升至14.4%。此前被市场视作高不可攀的5000美元/盎司关口如今近在咫尺，各大 机构也纷纷上调黄金目标价。高盛最新研报将2026年底黄金价格预测从4900美元/盎司上调至5400美元/ 盎司，原因是私人投资者与各国央行的黄金需求持续攀升。高盛预计，2026年各国央行每月将增持60吨 黄金，叠加美联储降息的背景，黄金ETF的配置规模也将同步增加，进一步推动黄金估值走高。 ...

金价"坐火箭"：单周暴涨8%，2008年后最猛行情来袭！ 1月25日，黄金市场彻底沸腾！本周国际金价累 计涨幅超8%，创下2008年金融危机以来最佳单周表现。纽约期货黄金价格冲上5020.83美元/盎司，伦敦 现货黄金紧随其后，报4986.02美元/盎司，中国上海黄金交易所价格也站稳1115.50元/克高位。这场"黄 金盛宴"背后，是美元指数的全面溃败——美市盘中，美元指数DXY失守98关口，过去两周累计跌幅超 3%，为金价狂飙提供直接推力。 美元崩跌+地缘动荡：黄金为何成为"避险王者"？ 金价此轮暴涨，本 质是市场对政治经济不确定性的"投票"。 美元走弱：美联储加息周期接近尾声，降息预期升温，美元 资产吸引力下降，资金加速流向黄金； 地缘冲突：全球局部战争风险持续，黄金作为"无国籍货币"的 避险属性被彻底激活； 央行购金潮：2025年全球央行净购金超1000吨，2026年增持势头不减，直接托 底金价。 正如市场分析师所言："当美元和国债不再安全，黄金就是最后的'保险单'。" 短线操作指 南：回落低多为主，但警惕两大"黑天鹅"！ 当前黄金多头气势如虹，技术面呈现典型"牛市特征"： 均 线多头排列：5日、10日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, including a declining US dollar index, increased demand for currency settlement, and positive market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - On January 23, the People's Bank of China announced that the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 6.9929, an increase of 90 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.0019, marking the highest level since May 2023 [1]. - Both offshore and onshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar on the same day, with expectations that by the end of 2025, both rates will break the "7" level, currently remaining above "7" [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate - The recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by multiple factors, including a decrease in the US dollar index, increased currency settlement demand, and favorable market sentiment [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to exhibit two-way fluctuations and maintain elasticity, reflecting the complex and severe external environment, including uncertainties in interest rate adjustments by major economies and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - The long-term stability of the RMB exchange rate is supported by China's large-scale market, complete industrial chain, accelerated integration of technological and industrial innovation, and the continuous release of domestic demand potential [3]. - The macroeconomic fundamentals are viewed positively, contributing to the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate [3].

本文源自：金融界AI电报 美元指数DXY失守98关口，为去年12月30日以来首次，日内跌幅0.30%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching historical highs despite signs of easing geopolitical tensions, indicating a shift in the underlying logic driving gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditionally, geopolitical tensions increase gold's safe-haven demand, while easing tensions typically exert downward pressure; however, gold prices remain strong even as risks diminish [1] - The recent weakness of the US dollar has provided crucial support for gold priced in dollars, despite a slight rebound from its lows [1] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy are key variables influencing both the dollar and gold [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows the US economy maintains some resilience, with a slight upward revision in Q3 GDP growth and a moderate rise in core inflation indicators [1] - Despite this, market participants seem more focused on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, shifting policy emphasis towards supporting economic growth [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have broken through the upper boundary of an upward channel formed since October of the previous year, signaling enhanced upward momentum [2] - Momentum indicators are currently in a strong zone, although another widely watched momentum indicator shows that prices have entered an overbought territory, which may lead to increased short-term volatility or a consolidation phase [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Attention is shifting towards the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, where any information regarding economic assessments and policy outlook could impact market expectations and asset prices [4] - The current gold market reflects a combination of macroeconomic expectations and technical high-level consolidation, with the potential for price adjustments as the market digests recent gains [4] - Future price performance is expected to depend on the ongoing interplay between macroeconomic data and signals from major central banks [4]

美元指数DXY短线下跌25点，现报98.27。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trends in the RMB exchange rate are influenced by multiple internal and external factors, and it is expected that the RMB will not experience significant appreciation in 2026 [2][9]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The current account balance of China is expected to reach a historical high in 2025, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time and a current account surplus of $492.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a significant increase from $241.3 billion in the same period of 2024 [3][11]. - The Chinese government has implemented various measures to boost the economy, including allocating 500 billion yuan for local government financial support and investing another 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools for project construction [3][11]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 reached 50.1, exceeding market expectations, which has improved market confidence in the Chinese economy [3][11]. Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The recent depreciation of the US dollar has positively impacted the RMB exchange rate, with the dollar index declining since late November 2025 due to weak non-farm employment data and concerns over high valuations in the US stock market [3][11]. - The Balassa-Samuelson effect suggests that long-term factors do not support significant appreciation of the RMB, as the growth of labor productivity in China has slowed down in recent years [4][12]. - The average annual growth rate of overall labor productivity in China dropped from 9.5% (2005-2014) to 5.8% (2015-2024), indicating a change in the long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate [5][13]. Group 3: External Factors - Geopolitical changes have negatively impacted China's external demand, with the share of the US market in China's exports declining from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.8% in the first eleven months of 2025 [6][14]. - The importance of non-US markets has increased, with Latin America’s share in China's exports rising from 5.8% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2025 [6][14]. - Maintaining the price competitiveness of Chinese export products in international markets is crucial, as excessive appreciation of the RMB could hinder exports [6][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Overall, the RMB is not expected to appreciate significantly in 2026, with the central bank aiming to maintain the exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [7][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical issues and the Fed's stance are key factors affecting precious metals. Gold and silver have long - term investment value due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. Copper has long - term potential due to supply shortages and green demand, but short - term fluctuations are affected by seasonality and market sentiment. Zinc shows a short - term rebound but is limited by weak fundamentals. Aluminum and nickel face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand. Industrial silicon and polysilicon have short - term rebound opportunities. Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish with supply - side disturbances [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold reached a new high due to geopolitical issues. SHFE gold was at 1087.58 with a - 0.43% daily change and a 3.40% weekly change; COMEX gold was at 4938 with a 2.11% daily change and a 7.33% weekly change. Silver also showed an upward trend. SHFE silver was at 23339 with a 0.90% daily change and a 0.65% weekly change; COMEX silver was at 96 with a 3.51% daily change and a 6.97% weekly change [2]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical issues such as Trump's rumored actions in Cuba and the weakening of the US dollar due to large - scale capital outflows from US dollar assets. Central banks continue to buy gold, and long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged. Silver's logic is dominated by gold's safe - haven property [1][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term holding. The short - term support for domestic gold is at 1040, and for domestic silver is at 21000. In 2026, the overall support for precious metals is still strong, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The 100,000 - yuan mark was regained after a tug - of - war. The closing price of SHFE copper was 100270, down 0.43% from the previous day [4]. - **Core Logic**: BHP slightly raised its copper production guidance for fiscal year 2026. In December 2025, refined copper imports decreased. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, the long - term supply - demand logic remains unchanged, with tight global copper concentrate supply and growing green demand for copper [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For existing long positions, use trailing stop - loss to lock in profits. New entrants should wait for a full correction. In the long - term, copper is still promising. Short - term, SHFE copper is in the range of [99500, 103000] yuan/ton, and LME copper is in the range of [12500, 13000] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The market sentiment improved, and zinc showed a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. The closing price of SHFE zinc was 24530, up 0.74% from the previous day [7]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink, and domestic new mine production increases are uncertain. Refined zinc production in December decreased, and downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates declined during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should take profits on rallies. Enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging to lock in profits. SHFE zinc is in the range of [24200, 24800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is in the range of [3150, 3250] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in the short - term, and alumina stabilized at a low level [11]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was put into production, and inventory increased. The downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates showed a differentiated trend. The alumina market remained oversupplied [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For SHFE aluminum, take profits and wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23000 - 25000] [13]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices faced pressure in the short - term, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. Indonesia significantly reduced its nickel ore production target, and there were issues of illegal land occupation in some mines. Domestic pure nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel was in the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [133000 - 151000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and went high, hitting a new high during the session [18]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the news of canceling export tax rebates for lithium batteries, prices rose for two consecutive days, but then回调 due to the overall decline of the non - ferrous sector and exchange position - limit measures. The upstream lithium salt plants had high enthusiasm for production, and the new production capacity of material plants in 2026 provided support for rigid demand [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: High - level oscillation in the range of [16400 - 175000] [20].