Core Viewpoint - The German Chancellor Merz announced that the EU will negotiate with the US regarding steel export quotas, focusing on avoiding excessive tariffs [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - A trade agreement was reached last month, setting tariffs at 15% for most products, while certain sectors, including steel and aluminum, are still under negotiation with tariffs at 50% [1] - The current task is to establish the "details" of the negotiations [1] Group 2: Impact on European Industry - Merz described the agreement as "painful" for the entire European industry [1] - He emphasized that the EU does not have the capacity to initiate a full-scale trade dispute, as it would result in losses, particularly for Europeans [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - In July, the domestic asphalt market fundamentals weakened marginally. Supply pressure increased due to the expected third - quarter terminal rush and high asphalt cracking spreads, while demand decreased because of weather - related construction disruptions. Socially - held inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. Macro improvements had limited support for the market. Cost - driven factors led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices, which in turn drove the asphalt market. Currently, the asphalt market lacks a core driving factor and is mainly influenced by crude oil. Given the medium - to long - term expectation of crude oil supply surplus, the asphalt price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. For trading strategies, pay attention to the pressure range of 3700 - 3750 for the BU2510 contract, and consider short - selling if US sanctions on Russia are lower than market expectations [69]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In July, the asphalt futures price fluctuated widely. On one hand, the asphalt fundamentals showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Asphalt production continued to rise as refinery operating rates increased, while demand weakened due to the typhoon season in the southern region. Social inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. On the other hand, the marginal improvement in the supply and demand of crude oil supported oil prices. In the context of less prominent fundamental contradictions, the cost was the main influencing factor for asphalt prices [6]. 02 Macro Analysis - **Trade Agreements**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and Chinese counter - measures for 90 days. The US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, etc., and also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil. In the short term, trade tensions were effectively alleviated, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the long - term impact on the global economy remains uncertain [8]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. Two Fed officials opposed the decision, indicating a weakening of internal consensus. Fed Chairman Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut decreased. The interest - rate decision and Powell's speech added uncertainty to the future interest - rate adjustment rhythm [12]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: US President Trump set a deadline for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine and threatened sanctions if the goal was not achieved. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about the supply side of the market and supported the recent strengthening of oil prices [13]. 03 Supply - Demand Analysis - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the market expects a continued increase in September to reach the target of restoring 2.2 million barrels per day of production. The market has fully priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. Additionally, Kazakhstan's production exceeded the quota, raising concerns about OPEC+ internal price competition [16][17]. - **IEA, EIA, and OPEC Forecasts**: In July, IEA, EIA, and OPEC had different expectations for global crude oil supply and demand growth. IEA raised the supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day, maintaining a pessimistic outlook. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts, expecting demand improvement due to the easing of global trade tensions [19]. - **Domestic Asphalt Supply**: In July, domestic asphalt production was 2.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 234,000 tons or 10.5%. The operating rate of domestic refineries increased, with significant increases in the East China and Shandong regions. The asphalt cracking spread fluctuated, and the expected third - quarter terminal rush demand drove the refinery operating rate to rise, increasing supply pressure [21][29]. - **Domestic Asphalt Demand**: In July, domestic asphalt shipments were 1.867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 88,000 tons. Rainy weather restricted terminal construction, weakening demand. As the rainy season ended, shipments increased week - on - week. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased, but the long - term growth space is limited [30][33]. - **Import and Export**: In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. Exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. From January to June, cumulative imports decreased by 11.53% year - on - year, while cumulative exports increased by 53.36% year - on - year [40][43]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 700,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The social inventory was 1.343 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased slightly due to lower production and increased terminal construction, while social inventory increased slightly due to weak demand and remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Price Spread**: As of August 1, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 551.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton. The asphalt basis was 76 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 57.25 as of July 31. The asphalt cracking spread weakened, and the basis first strengthened and then weakened, indicating weak price support from the demand side [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "strong reality, weak expectation", with short - term support factors and long - term suppression logic coexisting. In the short term, factors such as the peak consumption season, improved macro - environment, and OPEC+ actual production increase lower than planned support oil prices. In the long term, OPEC+ is expected to fully release the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of the fourth quarter, while seasonal demand will weaken, leading to a long - term structural surplus. The proposed US sanctions on Russia may cause short - term supply concerns and oil price rebounds, but the actual supply reduction may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure of WTI crude oil prices at $70 - 72 per barrel, and consider short positions if sanctions are lower than market expectations [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, oil prices first fluctuated widely and then rose. The "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern of crude oil, the expected peak consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the decline in EIA crude oil inventories supported oil prices. Although OPEC+ planned to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, the market had already priced it in, and the actual increase was much smaller. The threat of US sanctions on Russia also supported oil price rebounds. However, in the fourth quarter, the shift from peak to off - peak consumption and OPEC+ production increases may lead to supply surpluses and limit oil price increases [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Trade Agreements - The short - term trade tension has been alleviated as the US reached trade agreements with China, the EU, and Japan. However, the long - term impact on the global economy is still uncertain. The US also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil [6]. 3.2.2 Fed's Interest Rate Decision - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. There were two dissenting votes advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped from about 65% to below 50% [10]. 3.2.3 Geopolitical Tensions - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine by August 8. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about supply disruptions and supported oil prices [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. It is expected to continue increasing production in September to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. However, Kazakhstan's failure to cut production as promised may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [14][15]. 3.3.2 Forecasts from Different Institutions - In July, IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [17]. 3.3.3 Supply from Different Regions - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 221,000 barrels per day in June, mainly due to Saudi Arabia's production increase. Non - OPEC production increased by 129,000 barrels per day, mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia. US crude oil production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, and the number of oil rigs also decreased [19][21][24]. 3.3.4 Demand from Different Regions - China's apparent crude oil consumption increased by 3% in June. However, China's manufacturing PMI decreased in July. In the US, refinery utilization rates increased, but the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and the Chicago PMI continued to decline [32][38][39]. 3.3.5 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels in the week ending July 25. Although the seasonal peak may drive inventory reduction, the reduction space is limited [48].

韩国财政部长：关于贸易协议，"魔鬼藏在细节中"。 ...

中新网8月1日电"8月1日期限就是8月1日期限——不会延期！这对美国来说是个大日子！！！"当地时间 7月30日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发文宣称。 连日来，美国政府不断挥舞"关税大棒"，以此为其贸易协议谈判造势，对各国施压。如今，随着8月1日 的到来，美方的一系列举动不仅在全球范围内制造巨大混乱和不确定性，其达成的贸易协议更是屈指可 数，远少于此前所宣称的"90天内达成90份协议"。 挥舞关税大棒，美国"得逞"多少？ 早在4月，宣布设定"对等关税"谈判窗口期时，白宫方面曾宣称，可以"在90天内达成90份协议"。 到了7月中上旬，特朗普又先后致信20多个贸易伙伴国的领导人，威胁称美国将从8月1日起，对这些贸 易伙伴征收20%至50%不等的关税，以此施压对方同美国达成贸易协议。 资料图：美国总统特朗普。 然而，截至目前，根据美方公布的信息，美国仅与欧盟、英国、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国、越 南等不到十国，达成贸易协议。 其中，美国将对菲律宾和印度尼西亚征收19%的关税，对欧盟、韩国以及日本输美商品，征收15%的关 税。 根据协议，欧盟还将对美增加6000亿美元投资及购买价值7500亿美元的美国能 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the extension of tariff agreements between the U.S. and Mexico, with specific rates and implications for trade relations [1][2][3][4] Tariff Agreements - Trump announced a 90-day extension of the tariff agreement with Mexico, maintaining a 25% tariff on goods unless they qualify under the USMCA [2][4] - Additional tariffs include 25% on automotive imports and 50% on metals such as steel, aluminum, and copper [2][4] - The U.S. plans to implement new tariff rates on trade partners, effective August 1, following a series of negotiations [1][6] Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcements, U.S. stock indices experienced a significant drop, with the Dow Jones falling over 330 points, a decline of 0.74% [1][8] - The market's volatility was attributed to investor reassessment of monetary policy after the Federal Reserve meeting [1][8] Trade Relations with Canada - Trump signed an executive order increasing tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, effective August 1, 2025 [1][2] - Goods rerouted to avoid these tariffs will incur a 40% transshipment tariff [1][2] Future Negotiations - Trump indicated ongoing negotiations with Mexico to finalize a trade agreement within the next 90 days [4][5] - Mexico has not retaliated against the tariffs imposed by Trump but has indicated potential responses if tariffs increase further [5]

匈牙利总理欧尔班：在欧盟-美国贸易协议之后，匈牙利政府将制定行动计划，以保护匈牙利的就业和 工业。 ...

挪威贸易大臣：与美国达成贸易协议仍然是我们的目标。 ...

Group 1 - South Korea's exports increased by 5.9% in July compared to the same period last year, driven by strong semiconductor exports and stable automobile sales [1] - The increase in exports was higher than the market expectation of 5.1%, with a trade surplus of $6.6 billion due to a slight rise of 0.7% in imports [1] - The data reflects exporters' efforts to ship goods before the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on August 1, with a new 15% tariff rate replacing the previously threatened 25% [4] Group 2 - The trade agreement with the U.S. alleviated some uncertainties for the South Korean economy, which had contracted in the first quarter but showed growth in the second quarter [5] - The South Korean government approved a supplementary budget of 31.8 trillion won (approximately $23 billion) to support its trade-dependent economy [5] - Semiconductor exports were boosted by demand for high-performance chips used in artificial intelligence applications, while automobile exports grew by 8.8% due to strong demand outside the U.S. [5] Group 3 - Exports to China decreased by 3% in July due to reduced shipments of key products like petrochemicals and wireless communication devices [6] - Exports to the U.S. increased by 1.4%, driven by strong performance in semiconductors, wireless devices, cosmetics, and electrical equipment [6] - Concerns remain for the semiconductor industry, as recent growth is linked to increased demand for HBM chips, and future global trade may slow down [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal, with CBOT soybeans falling due to good weather in US soybean - growing areas and weak Chinese demand, and the prices of DCE soybeans and soybean meal showing fluctuations [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE Soybean 2509 closed at 4131 yuan/ton during the day session, down 21 yuan (-0.51%), and 4133 yuan/ton at night, down 4 yuan (-0.10%); DCE Soybean Meal 2509 closed at 3000 yuan/ton during the day session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%), and 3002 yuan/ton at night, down 4 yuan (-0.13%); CBOT Soybean 11 was at 990.25 cents/bushel, down 5.75 cents (-0.58%); CBOT Soybean Meal 12 was at 276.3 dollars/short - ton, up 2.0 dollars (+0.73%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 2900 - 2940 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different months; in East China, the price was 2920 yuan/ton in a certain factory in Lianyungang, up 20 yuan compared to the previous day, and also had different basis prices for different months; in South China, the price was 2900 - 2910 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day, with corresponding basis prices for different months [1] - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 41.5 million tons/day on the previous trading day, compared to 29.71 million tons/day two trading days ago; the inventory was 96.1 million tons/week on the previous trading day, compared to 90.83 million tons/week two trading days ago [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 31, CBOT soybeans closed lower, hitting the lowest level since April, due to good weather in US soybean - growing areas and weak Chinese demand. The current weather forecast is extremely bearish for prices. China, the world's largest soybean importer, is still absent from the US soybean market, and there is a deadline for a long - term tariff agreement with the Trump administration on August 12. Trade insiders believe that China's demand for soybeans may weaken later this year [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]