Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - US manufacturing activity has contracted for the seventh consecutive month, with the orders index declining, indicating a lack of momentum in the sector [4][5] - The ISM reported that the manufacturing index slightly increased by 0.4 points to 49.1 in September, remaining below the neutral level of 50, which signifies contraction [4] - The orders index fell by 2.5 points to 48.9, reverting to contraction after a brief expansion in August [4] Group 2: UK Market Developments - The UK government plans to exempt new listings on the London Stock Exchange from a 0.5% stamp duty for two to three years, aiming to enhance the business environment [7] Group 3: Technology Sector - Intel's stock surged by 6% after news emerged of early negotiations to manufacture chips for AMD, which could significantly boost Intel's foundry business [11] - Google has laid off over 100 design-related employees in its cloud computing division, affecting teams focused on user experience research and product design [13] Group 4: Economic Policy and Federal Reserve - Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized the recent speech by Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan, arguing it lacked analytical support for aggressive interest rate cuts [17][18] - The US Supreme Court's decision to prevent President Trump from immediately dismissing a Federal Reserve governor has temporarily alleviated pressure on the central bank [15]

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized Stephen Moore's inaugural speech as a Federal Reserve governor, stating it lacked a solid analytical basis for advocating significant interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Criticism of Federal Reserve Speech - Summers described Moore's speech as one of the least analytical he has ever heard from a Federal Reserve governor or at the New York Economic Club [1] - He expressed that if this is the best argument for aggressive rate cuts promoted by former President Trump, it is even weaker than he previously thought [1] Group 2: Background on Stephen Moore - Moore joined the Federal Reserve prior to the interest rate decision on September 17, having previously served as Trump's chief economist [1] - In his speech, Moore discussed the concept of neutral interest rates, suggesting that Trump's policies have lowered the neutral rate, making the current monetary stance of the Federal Reserve too tight [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points brings it closer to a neutral interest rate level [1] - The Federal Reserve is prepared to utilize all available tools to fulfill its mission [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Policy - The recent 25 basis point rate cut is aimed at achieving a neutral interest rate level [1] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve has not considered the situation post-term expiration of its officials [1] - The Federal Reserve remains ready to employ all necessary tools to meet its objectives [1]

Group 1 - The assessment of "neutral interest rate" is a critical part of a central bank's monetary policy framework, influenced by factors such as productivity growth and demographic changes [1] - Schroders believes that the perception of how close central banks are to the "neutral interest rate" is more important than the actual level, as it affects their response to new data [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current policy rate close to neutral, having halved its rate since mid-2024, while the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will reach neutral rates in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - Schroders assesses a 60% probability for a "soft landing" of the US economy, with a 30% chance of a "hard landing" and 10% for "no landing" [2] - The current US Treasury yields have significantly decreased, reflecting market predictions of a 50% chance of a "hard landing" for the US economy [2] - The US labor market is currently stagnant, with companies adopting a cautious approach to hiring and layoffs, indicating high uncertainty [2] Group 3 - Schroders maintains that the necessity for further rate cuts by the ECB is limited, a view supported by recent statements from ECB President Lagarde [3] - The yield curve may steepen due to deteriorating supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds, with slight upward movement in Eurozone bond yields expected [3] - Schroders is cautiously optimistic about certain investment opportunities, particularly in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), covered bonds, and emerging market bonds, while remaining patient regarding corporate credit [3]

美联储新任理事、"特朗普国师"Stephen Miran首次重大政策演讲引发华尔街强烈质疑，经济学家纷纷批评其大幅降 息论缺乏说服力。 9月22日，Miran向纽约经济俱乐部发表演讲呼吁大幅降息以快速达到中性利率水平，引发华尔街经济学家们一致 质疑，摩根大通经济学家在最新研报中则进行了全面驳斥。 9月30日，据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在最新研报中指出，Miran提议将联邦基金利率快速降至2.5%或更低，但 其论证"可疑"、"不完整"且"几乎不具说服力"。 研报称，摩根大通分析师对Miran的论证方法提出了多项质疑，包括关于中性利率(r)的争议和通胀分析的缺陷。该 行还批评了Miran演讲中"选择性引用"引用政策论据。 与此同时，最新经济数据进一步削弱了Miran的论据，多项经济数据显示美国经济表现强劲，与Miran的降息主张 相矛盾。 Miran成为美联储"异类" Stephen Miran作为特朗普任命的美联储新理事，在9月22日向纽约经济俱乐部发表演讲，呼吁大幅降息以快速达到 中性利率水平。 Miran的核心论点是特朗普政府在贸易、移民、税收和监管方面的政策显著降低了防范通胀所需的利率水平，因此 当前的基 ...

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Stephen Miran emphasizes the necessity for significant interest rate cuts to achieve a neutral rate that neither stimulates nor hinders economic growth [1][2] - Miran's stance is based on an assessment of the Trump administration's policies, which he believes have lowered the necessary interest rates to combat inflation, suggesting that the current benchmark rate is too high [1] - Miran has indicated that he may continue to vote against the Federal Reserve's decisions if they do not align with his views on the need for substantial rate cuts [1] Group 2 - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with some officials warning about limited room for further easing in the context of high inflation [2] - Recent economic data, including a notable increase in Q2 economic growth and steady consumer spending, has contributed to policymakers' hesitance regarding immediate rate cuts [2] - Some economists acknowledge that while Miran's logic has merit, they question whether the neutral rate is as low as he claims, suggesting that if it were, the economy and financial markets would have already faced severe downturns [2]

美联储威廉姆斯：中性利率很重要，但政策由数据驱动。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge and is better prepared to handle future economic shocks [1] - The Monetary Policy Committee has gained significant insights into economic activity, corporate pricing behavior, and the evolution of inflation expectations during periods of high inflation and economic volatility [1] Summary by Categories - **Economic Understanding** - The Reserve Bank has developed a deeper understanding of structural drivers of inflation and supply shocks [1] - Enhanced use of high-frequency data allows for more timely and precise monitoring of economic conditions [1] - **Policy Tools** - New tools have been developed for estimating neutral interest rates and conducting scenario analysis [1] - These improvements ensure that the Monetary Policy Committee can maintain price stability while effectively navigating future economic shocks [1]

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of at least 150 to 200 basis points from the current range of 4.00%-4.25% [2] - Milan's stance is based on the concept of "neutral interest rate," which he believes is currently around 2%, significantly lower than the existing federal funds rate [2] - He attributes the previous higher neutral rate to government borrowing and increased immigration, which have now slowed due to tightened border policies and rising tariff revenues [2] Group 2 - No new issuances were reported in the primary market today [4] - Three companies had their ratings updated, including New World Development, which terminated a subscription agreement due to current market conditions [5] - Shimao Group is actively negotiating loan extensions and restructuring with domestic creditors, with approximately RMB 22.8 billion of loans successfully extended [5] - Poly Property Group announced a reduction in the coupon rate of a bond by 180 basis points, effective from November 1, 2025 [5] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is expanding its RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement to support offshore RMB business growth [10] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of CNY 165.8 billion at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of CNY 4.115 billion for the day [10]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack expresses concerns about inflation, indicating that monetary policy is at a "challenging moment" and showing caution towards further rate cuts [1][2] Inflation Concerns - Hammack believes inflation will remain above the Fed's 2% target for the next one to two years, potentially not returning to target until late 2027 or early 2028 [1][2] - She highlights persistent inflation pressures across overall, core, and particularly service sector inflation [2] Current Monetary Policy Stance - Hammack describes the current federal funds rate target range of 4.00%-4.25% as "moderately restrictive" and emphasizes that a shift to a more accommodative policy would require "more substantial economic weakness," which she does not currently observe [3] - Despite recent economic data supporting her cautious stance, market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting remain high, with a 90% probability for a 25 basis point cut [3] External Challenges - Hammack acknowledges additional challenges facing the Fed, including discussions around the central bank's independence and the potential impact of a government shutdown on the economy [5] - She warns that a prolonged government shutdown could negatively affect GDP, indicating the need for the Fed to monitor long-term implications [5]