美联储哈马克：对通胀保持警惕，倾向于在春季前维持利率稳定 。 来源：滚动播报 ...

智通财经APP获悉，加拿大央行周三宣布维持基准利率在2.25%不变。近期数据显示加拿大经济韧性强 于预期，但加央行表示，当前利率水平仍适合应对贸易战带来的压力，并有助于将通胀稳定在目标水平 附近。 此次按兵不动符合市场普遍预期。加央行行长麦克勒姆表示，尽管面对美国关税冲击，加拿大经济整体 表现"更具韧性"，经济中仍存在一定"闲置产能"，这将使通胀维持在接近2%的目标水平。 加央行在声明中重申，"当前政策利率大致合适"，并认为维持利率在"中性区间下端"是恰当的。加央行 同时强调，如经济前景出现变化，将"随时准备采取应对措施"。 市场反应方面，加元在决定公布后走弱，兑美元跌至日内低点，至1美元兑1.3860加元，下跌约0.1%。 加拿大国债收益率全面走低，两年期国债收益率下滑约3个基点至2.66%。 近期加拿大经济数据意外强劲。过去三个月劳动力市场新增18.1万个就业岗位；第三季度实际GDP按年 化增速达到2.6%，显著高于预期。麦克勒姆指出，对2022–2024年GDP的最新修订表明，加拿大在贸易 冲突爆发前经济"比原先认为的更健康"，这或是韧性更强的原因之一。 不过，他强调，这些修订并不意味着产出缺口明显缩小 ...

Core Points - Canada's inflation rate fell to 2.2% in October, down from 2.4% in September, primarily due to declining gasoline prices and easing food inflation [1] - Food price inflation decreased from 4.0% to 3.4%, while gasoline prices plummeted by 9.4% year-on-year, significantly widening from a 4.1% decline in September [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding the impact of carbon tax, improved to 2.7% from the previous 2.9%, although it remains above the overall inflation level [1] Summary by Sections Inflation Data - The October inflation data indicates a continued decline, providing a strong rationale for the Bank of Canada to maintain current interest rates [1] - Economists suggest that the basic trend of inflation should only cause limited concern for the Bank of Canada [1][2] Interest Rate Outlook - Most economists expect interest rates to remain stable for the remainder of the year, given the high threshold for further rate cuts indicated by policymakers [2] - The Bank of Canada previously anticipated inflation would return to its 2% target, and the current data aligns with these expectations [2] Currency Dynamics - The USD/CAD exchange rate remained stable around 1.4025, supported by the current environment favoring the USD against the CAD [2] - The softening of oil prices continues to exert downward pressure on the commodity-linked CAD, providing additional support for the USD [2][3] Economic Context - The USD is in a relatively strong position compared to the CAD, with recent cautious yet hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials regarding further easing [3] - Concerns about the momentum of the US economy, exacerbated by a record government shutdown delaying data releases, have led to a cautious stance among USD bulls [3]

克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，美联储应维持利率稳定，以继续对通胀施压，将物价增速拉回2%的目 标。她指出，尽管劳动力市场存在一定隐忧，高企的通胀依然顽固，尤其对低收入和中等收入家庭造成 持续冲击。哈马克认为，当前利率水平"几乎算不上限制性"，并暗示中性利率可能高于多数政策制定者 的估计，"为了保持政策的限制性，需要让利率维持在当前水平"。哈马克预计，通胀压力将持续到今年 年底甚至延续至明年初。她提到，企业此前已吸收了部分由关税引发的成本上涨，但如今越来越多的企 业寻求将这些成本转嫁给消费者，这可能使物价压力更加顽固。 ...

AvaTrade爱华每日市场报告：美国股市以稳健上涨开启新的一周，主要指数全线收高。在科技股和成长股的强劲带动下，市场延续了上周的积极势头。投资 者情绪受到利率环境稳定以及对政策风险可能缓解的乐观预期支撑，纷纷转向贝塔系数较高的股票。纳斯达克指数表现尤为突出，单日涨幅接近2%，显示 出市场对即将公布的大型科技公司财报抱有积极期待。 前一天总结 – 2025 年 10 月 27 日星期一 美国主要指数 • 标准普尔 500 指数：+ 1.23% 至 6,875.15 • 道琼斯指数： ▲ +0.71% 至 47,544.59 点 欧洲股市跟随华尔街走高，得益于能源稳定和科技韧性。在亚洲，由于投资者等待贸易发展和盈利势头的明朗化，市场涨跌互现。 市场驱动因素 顶级股票推动者 波动性和收益率 商品 欧洲 / 全球市场 • 纳斯达克 100 指数： ▲ +1.83% 至 25,821.54 点 • 罗素 2000 指数： ▲ +0.28% 至 2,520.44 • VIX： ▼ -0.11% • 势头延续：股市延续了上周的涨幅，纳斯达克指数表现优异，因为投资者领先于大型科技公司的财报。 • 利率稳定：10年期国债收益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, indicating a strategic decision to stabilize the economic environment amidst complex international dynamics [1][5][16]. Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter reached 5.3%, continuing the robust trend from the first quarter, while the manufacturing PMI has remained above the threshold for several months, and retail sales are showing steady recovery [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been below 1% for three consecutive months, with the core CPI stabilizing around 0.5%, providing a favorable backdrop for maintaining interest rates [3][5]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The current stable inflation environment allows the PBOC to avoid raising interest rates to curb prices, thus preserving policy space for future adjustments [5][10]. - The PBOC's decision to keep the LPR unchanged is a tactical move to maintain balance in the face of international financial market volatility, particularly concerning potential capital outflows and pressure on the RMB exchange rate [5][10]. Policy Implementation - The PBOC has previously implemented measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and targeted interest rate reductions, which are still being assessed for their impact on the real economy [7][10]. - The central bank is focusing on "precision drip irrigation" through targeted monetary policy tools rather than broad-based rate cuts, aiming to direct financial resources to key sectors like technology innovation and green development [9][10]. Future Outlook - The direction of the LPR in the second half of the year will depend on the strength of economic recovery and external shocks, particularly the timing and magnitude of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes [10][14]. - If the economic recovery shows signs of slowing, the likelihood of structural or comprehensive rate cuts will increase [14]. Implications for Households - The stability of the LPR provides a temporary window for households to optimize their financial structures, especially for those with mortgage obligations linked to the 5-year LPR [14][16]. - Households are encouraged to explore investment channels and maintain a healthy balance sheet to navigate potential future interest rate fluctuations [16][17].

智通财经7月17日电，美联储理事Kugler表示，当前应维持利率稳定一段时间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to decline, reaching a low of $3282, influenced by expectations of high tariffs in the U.S. which may increase inflation and lead the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates, thereby supporting rising U.S. Treasury yields and stabilizing the dollar near a two-week low [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a high early in the day but entered a consolidation phase, eventually breaking below the key support level of $3297 and continuing to decline to around $3287, indicating a weakening short-term trend [3] - The current market sentiment is fragile due to trade tariff concerns, with a focus on the FOMC meeting minutes for insights into the future direction of the dollar and precious metals [1][3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent price action has disrupted the bullish structure of the right shoulder in a four-hour head and shoulders pattern, with the daily candle closing bearish, suggesting potential for further declines [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at $3300-$3307, while support is found at $3280-$3277, indicating a preference for buying on dips and selling on rebounds [3][4] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on a pullback to $3280 with a stop loss at $3270 and a target of $3300-$3320 [4] - An alternative strategy recommends selling on a rebound to $3320 with a stop loss at $3330 and a target of $3295-$3280 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain stable interest rates is justified by the slow cooling of inflation, indicating a cautious approach in the face of economic uncertainty [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may face a scenario where both inflation and unemployment rates rise simultaneously, highlighting the complexity of the current economic landscape [1] - In light of uncertainty, the Federal Reserve must wait to observe the next steps in policy measures before making further decisions [1]

劳工统计局在声明中称："由于引入重新设计的当前人口调查（Current Population Survey，CPS）样本时 涉及权重的轻微误差，2025年4月的部分数据估计值将于2025年6月6日修正。劳动力市场主要指标，如 失业率、劳动参与率和就业人口比率均未受影响。尽管许多数据将被修正，但影响微乎其微。" 美国非农就业报告由两项调查组成——一项针对家庭，另一项针对企业。误差源于4月家庭调查开始逐 步采用基于2020年人口普查信息重新设计的样本，这是每十年一次人口普查后进行的常规流程。劳工统 计局表示，加权过程中一个变量的编码错误导致了数据不准确。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）周二宣布，将于周五发布5月非农就业数据时修正4月数据中的"轻微误差"，并 强调此次修正不会影响失业率等关键指标。 周二，美国劳工统计局的另一份数据显示，美国4月份职位空缺意外增加，增幅相当大，且招聘人数也 有所增加，表明尽管经济不确定性加剧，但对工人的需求仍然健康。 美国JOLTS职位空缺从3月份修正后的720万个增加到739万个。而机构对经济学家进行的一项调查的中 值估计为710万个职位空缺。 该数据可能非常不稳定，有时每月会出现多达5 ...