Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, indicating a strategic decision to stabilize the economic environment amidst complex international dynamics [1][5][16]. Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter reached 5.3%, continuing the robust trend from the first quarter, while the manufacturing PMI has remained above the threshold for several months, and retail sales are showing steady recovery [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been below 1% for three consecutive months, with the core CPI stabilizing around 0.5%, providing a favorable backdrop for maintaining interest rates [3][5]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The current stable inflation environment allows the PBOC to avoid raising interest rates to curb prices, thus preserving policy space for future adjustments [5][10]. - The PBOC's decision to keep the LPR unchanged is a tactical move to maintain balance in the face of international financial market volatility, particularly concerning potential capital outflows and pressure on the RMB exchange rate [5][10]. Policy Implementation - The PBOC has previously implemented measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and targeted interest rate reductions, which are still being assessed for their impact on the real economy [7][10]. - The central bank is focusing on "precision drip irrigation" through targeted monetary policy tools rather than broad-based rate cuts, aiming to direct financial resources to key sectors like technology innovation and green development [9][10]. Future Outlook - The direction of the LPR in the second half of the year will depend on the strength of economic recovery and external shocks, particularly the timing and magnitude of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes [10][14]. - If the economic recovery shows signs of slowing, the likelihood of structural or comprehensive rate cuts will increase [14]. Implications for Households - The stability of the LPR provides a temporary window for households to optimize their financial structures, especially for those with mortgage obligations linked to the 5-year LPR [14][16]. - Households are encouraged to explore investment channels and maintain a healthy balance sheet to navigate potential future interest rate fluctuations [16][17].

智通财经7月17日电，美联储理事Kugler表示，当前应维持利率稳定一段时间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to decline, reaching a low of $3282, influenced by expectations of high tariffs in the U.S. which may increase inflation and lead the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates, thereby supporting rising U.S. Treasury yields and stabilizing the dollar near a two-week low [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a high early in the day but entered a consolidation phase, eventually breaking below the key support level of $3297 and continuing to decline to around $3287, indicating a weakening short-term trend [3] - The current market sentiment is fragile due to trade tariff concerns, with a focus on the FOMC meeting minutes for insights into the future direction of the dollar and precious metals [1][3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent price action has disrupted the bullish structure of the right shoulder in a four-hour head and shoulders pattern, with the daily candle closing bearish, suggesting potential for further declines [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at $3300-$3307, while support is found at $3280-$3277, indicating a preference for buying on dips and selling on rebounds [3][4] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on a pullback to $3280 with a stop loss at $3270 and a target of $3300-$3320 [4] - An alternative strategy recommends selling on a rebound to $3320 with a stop loss at $3330 and a target of $3295-$3280 [5]

美联储哈克：缓慢的通胀降温本身就足以证明美联储维持利率稳定是合理的。美联储可能同时面临通胀 上升和失业率上升的局面，这完全是可能的。在不确定性中，美联储必须等待观察下一步的政策措施 ...

劳工统计局在声明中称："由于引入重新设计的当前人口调查（Current Population Survey，CPS）样本时 涉及权重的轻微误差，2025年4月的部分数据估计值将于2025年6月6日修正。劳动力市场主要指标，如 失业率、劳动参与率和就业人口比率均未受影响。尽管许多数据将被修正，但影响微乎其微。" 美国非农就业报告由两项调查组成——一项针对家庭，另一项针对企业。误差源于4月家庭调查开始逐 步采用基于2020年人口普查信息重新设计的样本，这是每十年一次人口普查后进行的常规流程。劳工统 计局表示，加权过程中一个变量的编码错误导致了数据不准确。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）周二宣布，将于周五发布5月非农就业数据时修正4月数据中的"轻微误差"，并 强调此次修正不会影响失业率等关键指标。 周二，美国劳工统计局的另一份数据显示，美国4月份职位空缺意外增加，增幅相当大，且招聘人数也 有所增加，表明尽管经济不确定性加剧，但对工人的需求仍然健康。 美国JOLTS职位空缺从3月份修正后的720万个增加到739万个。而机构对经济学家进行的一项调查的中 值估计为710万个职位空缺。 该数据可能非常不稳定，有时每月会出现多达5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve unanimously decided to maintain interest rates in May with a 12-0 voting result, reflecting a consensus among policymakers [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Decision** - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates stable was reached with a unanimous vote of 12-0 in May [1] - This decision mirrors the nearly unanimous decision made in March, where only one member expressed dissent regarding the pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - **Committee Composition** - In the May meeting, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari served as a voting member of the FOMC, temporarily replacing the absent Kansas Fed President George [1]