Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government expresses serious concerns and strong opposition to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is set to be implemented on January 1, 2026, citing unfair treatment and discrimination against Chinese products [1][2]. Group 1: EU's CBAM Implementation - The EU has recently released legislative proposals and implementation details regarding CBAM, including setting default carbon emission intensity values and plans to expand the product coverage [1]. - The EU's default values for carbon emission intensity are significantly higher than China's current levels and future development trends, which is viewed as unfair and discriminatory [1]. Group 2: Expansion of CBAM - Starting in 2028, the EU plans to expand the CBAM to include approximately 180 downstream products, such as machinery, automobiles and their parts, and household appliances [1]. - The design of these rules is seen as exceeding the scope of climate change response and exhibiting clear unilateralism and trade protectionism [1]. Group 3: Double Standards and Trade Protectionism - The EU has modified its 2035 ban on new fuel vehicles, relaxing green regulations internally while promoting protectionism externally under the guise of climate action [2]. - This contradictory approach is characterized as a typical double standard, ignoring historical emissions responsibilities and the development stages of countries [2]. Group 4: Call for Fair Trade Practices - The Chinese government urges the EU to adhere to international climate and trade rules, abandon unilateralism and protectionism, and promote the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment in the green sector [2]. - China is willing to cooperate with the EU to address global climate change challenges but will take necessary measures to respond to any unfair trade restrictions [2].

Core Insights - The year 2025 witnessed significant market movements in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, driven by geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors, leading to record price increases for gold and silver [3][4]. Copper Market - In late November to December 2025, copper prices surged, reaching historical highs of $12,960 per ton on the LME and over ¥100,000 per ton in Shanghai [5]. - The copper supply faced constraints due to structural issues, including declining resource grades and insufficient capital expenditure, alongside natural disasters [5]. - Demand for copper remained robust, driven by the dual forces of new energy and AI, leading to a three-phase price increase throughout the year [5]. - The investment strategy for 2026 suggests maintaining a focus on copper until mid-year, then diversifying into both copper and aluminum investments [5]. Aluminum Market - In early November 2025, aluminum prices rose sharply, driven by a significant increase in trading volume and a shift of capital from copper to aluminum [9]. - The rise in aluminum prices was supported by a tight supply situation and a growing belief in aluminum's long-term potential as a substitute for copper [9]. - The outlook for aluminum remains bullish, with expectations of a widening global primary aluminum deficit by 2026 [9]. Alumina Market - In July 2025, alumina prices experienced a notable increase despite a backdrop of oversupply, influenced by delayed market responses and macroeconomic sentiment [11]. - The market dynamics indicated a potential for further price declines in 2026, driven by cost pressures and competitive market conditions [11]. Zinc Market - In the fourth quarter of 2025, zinc prices began to rise due to domestic supply shortages and a shift in market dynamics towards replenishing inventories [13]. - The zinc market is transitioning from a bear market to a structural bull market, with expectations of a 2% increase in global zinc demand in 2026 [13]. Gold Market - From January to April 2025, gold prices surged due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, reaching $3,500 per ounce [17]. - The latter part of 2025 saw gold prices peak at $4,381 per ounce, driven by political pressures on the Federal Reserve and economic instability [22]. Silver Market - In late 2025, silver prices broke through a significant resistance level, reaching $80 per ounce, supported by high trading volumes and low domestic inventories [23]. - The price dynamics were characterized by strong investor interest and significant deviations from equilibrium price levels [23].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 特朗普借选民对经济不满的浪潮，成功连任入主白宫，承诺降低物价并开创国家的"黄金时代"。 他的政府目前表现如何？尽管经历了一些剧烈起伏，但美国经济在2025年似乎将交出一份稳健的增长答 卷——经济学家预计这一趋势将在2026年延续。 数据显示，得益于韧性十足的消费者和企业投资，美国经济在第三季度以两年来最快的速度扩张。 然而，亮眼的整体数据掩盖了一些不那么乐观的细节。就业增长乏力且仅集中在少数几个行业，而高企 的物价仍是一大隐忧，延续了困扰其前任乔·拜登的负担能力危机。 劳动力市场 在关税引发的动荡、外国游客减少以及人工智能在职场兴起的多重冲击下，美国求职者度过了艰难的一 年。11月失业率升至4.6%——2025年内上升了0.5个百分点——创下自2021年以来的最高水平。 招聘活动整体不温不火，且就业增长绝大部分集中在医疗保健和社会援助领域：若剔除该板块，今年就 业人数实际上不增反降。制造业已连续七个月流失岗位。 在职人员的工资涨幅有所降温。最新数据显示，包括平均时薪和就业成本指数在内的指标正以2021年以 来最慢的速度增 ...

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to achieve steady growth in 2025, driven by consumer and business investment resilience, with economists predicting this trend to continue into 2026 [1] - The third quarter of 2025 saw the fastest economic growth in two years, although employment growth remains weak and concentrated in a few sectors [1] Labor Market - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November 2025, 0.5 percentage points higher than the expected value for that year, marking the highest level since 2021 [1] - Job growth is primarily in healthcare and social assistance, with overall employment numbers declining when excluding this sector; manufacturing has seen layoffs for seven consecutive months [1] Wage Growth - Wage growth has slowed, with indicators such as average hourly earnings and employment cost index reaching their lowest levels since 2021 [4] - 13% of employed individuals saw no wage growth compared to the previous year from April to November [4] - The unemployment rate for workers with a four-year college degree reached 2.9% in November, a historically high level without an economic recession [4] Consumer Prices - Inflation remains elevated, with the consumer price index showing a growth rate of 2.7% in November, consistent with the average for 2025 [6] - The inflation data may be influenced by a government shutdown that caused data interruptions [6] Trade Policy - Trump's administration has shifted towards protectionism, raising tariffs to the highest levels in nearly a century by 2025 [11] - Tariffs are expected to generate approximately $30 billion in monthly revenue by the end of 2025, although the overall impact remains uncertain [14] Business Investment - Business fixed investment showed solid growth in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily driven by increased spending on computer equipment and software [15][18] - Future capital expenditures are anticipated to be boosted by Trump's "Great Beautiful Act" and ongoing investments in artificial intelligence [18]

2025年12月26日，一个叫彼得·纳瓦罗的人在墨西哥报纸上发表文章，他提出墨西哥对中国商品加税是 一次贸易革命，还号召其他国家跟着学，这事情显得有点奇怪，因为就在那几天，美国刚发布数据说墨 美贸易增长明显，墨西哥对美国出口增加了9%，他选择这个时间点说话，就是想让人觉得墨西哥做得 不错，值得大家效仿。 美国原本打算对中国加税，让企业搬到墨西哥去，这样就能绕开中国，结果墨西哥对美出口没有减少， 反而变得更多了，很多货其实是中国制造、在墨西哥组装，再运到美国，美国自己也承认，墨西哥接了 四分之一原来从中国进口的缺口，更值得注意的是，墨西哥的综合关税只有4.7%，大部分出口还能免 税，美国的高关税没能挡住中国货，反倒帮中国货打开了一条新路。 中国方面反应很平静，27日驻墨西哥使馆直接回应说，纳瓦罗的言论属于卑劣行为，是把经济当成武 器，为霸权找理由，中方还提到美国在二战后从全球贸易中获得最大利益，现在却带头搞单边主义，这 纳瓦罗这个人有点特别，他既不是做学问的，也不是做生意的，而是专门搞政治的，2016年进了白宫， 负责贸易事务，喜欢拿关税当手段，2021年被中国制裁过，2023年因为拒绝配合国会调查被判有罪， ...

即将过去的2025年，世界经济面对美国加征关税冲击、地缘冲突持续与金融波动加剧等多重压力， 仍展现出坚韧底色，增长有望超过预期。然而，全球经济前景依然脆弱，贸易保护主义、人工智能(AI) 泡沫与债务压力如重重暗礁，随时可能阻滞复苏进程。展望2026年，世界经济需要在持续的不确定性中 寻找新平衡。 2025年，不同经济体增长呈现显著分化态势。国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行、经济合作与发 展组织在各自的研究报告中不约而同地有所提及。 IMF在10月的《世界经济展望报告》中将全年经济增长预期上调至3.2%，但预计2025年美国经济增 速仅为2.0%，2026年可能进一步下滑至1.7%。欧元区与日本则面临外部需求疲软、结构改革停滞等长 期挑战，2025年增速分别维持在1.3%和1.1%的低位。 这一年，全球贸易在逆境中悄然重塑。世贸组织数据显示，2025年上半年，全球货物贸易量同比增 长4.9%，全年预期上调至2.4%。推动力不仅来自美国关税前的"囤货效应"，更得益于发展中国家间的 贸易扩张——亚洲贡献了全球贸易增量的主要份额，中国在电子产品、绿色产业等领域的出口韧性尤其 突出。 这种分化映射出全球经济格局的重 ...

Economic Overview - The global economy in 2025 is expected to show resilience despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and increased financial volatility, with growth projected to exceed expectations [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, while the U.S. economy is expected to grow only 2.0% in 2025 and further decline to 1.7% in 2026 [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to be the main drivers of global growth, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.2% in 2025, particularly strong in ASEAN countries at 4.7% [1] Trade Dynamics - Global trade is undergoing a transformation, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global goods trade volume in the first half of 2025, and an annual forecast adjustment to 2.4% [2] - The growth in trade is attributed to both pre-tariff stockpiling in the U.S. and expanding trade among developing countries, with Asia contributing significantly to global trade growth [2] - The trade system faces deep challenges, including unilateral tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, which have created significant turmoil in the past 80 years [2] Technological and Green Transition - AI and green transitions are identified as dual driving forces for economic growth, with AI investments expected to boost global trade by 34% to 37% by 2040 [3] - However, there are risks associated with AI investments, which may resemble the internet bubble if returns do not meet expectations [3] - China's investments in renewable energy technologies have reduced global clean energy costs, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 50% [3] China's Economic Stability - China's GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 5.2%, with the total expected to surpass 140 trillion yuan for the year, driven by consumption and manufacturing investment [4] - The country is enhancing its macroeconomic stability through policies aimed at high-level opening up and expanding cooperation, including the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port [4] - China's focus on AI and biotechnology in its 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide market opportunities and technology transfer for developing countries [4] Future Outlook - The resilience of the global economy in 2025 is attributed to technological breakthroughs and the rise of emerging economies, with a need to find balance amid uncertainties in 2026 [4] - Potential market volatility may arise from trade policy disagreements, U.S. debt risks, and uncertainties in Japan's stimulus plans, but opportunities remain in AI applications and green technology [4]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Trends - In 2025, the U.S. government is implementing conservative economic policies and nationalist trade protectionism, focusing on "small government" principles and significant tax cuts [1] - The U.S. GDP growth shows a trend of declining initially and then increasing, with quarterly growth rates of -0.5%, 3.8%, and 4.3% respectively [1] - The overall inflation is expected to ease, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in November, down from 3.0% in September [3] Group 2: Technology Sector Performance - Major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Google are maintaining revenue growth rates of 8% to 12% due to advancements in AI and enterprise solutions [2] - Startups are facing challenges, with total financing down 28% in 2025 due to high costs and increased investment thresholds [2] - There is a significant disparity in layoffs within the tech sector, with companies like Meta and Amazon expanding AI-related departments while traditional software and hardware sectors see over 60% layoffs [2] Group 3: Manufacturing and Services Sector - Despite government efforts to revive manufacturing, the sector is struggling, with a projected Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) average of 48.5, indicating contraction [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector is particularly affected, with production down 3.2% year-on-year due to supply chain disruptions and weak consumer demand [2] - The service sector remains a growth pillar for the U.S. economy, although there is a noticeable shift in consumer spending patterns towards lower-quality goods [2] Group 4: Employment and Labor Market - The unemployment rate in the U.S. reached 4.6% by November 2025, indicating a cooling labor market [4] - There is a trend of "no job prosperity," with significant layoffs in the tech sector and a widening wealth gap potentially impacting consumer spending [4] - The Federal Reserve has shifted to a rate-cutting stance, reducing rates by 75 basis points since September 2025 in response to economic pressures [4] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - Economic growth in 2026 is expected to be driven by private consumption and AI-related investments, with a projected growth rate of around 2.5% [6] - The structural decline in inflation is anticipated, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation expected to be below 2.5% [6] - The economic outlook remains uncertain due to various factors, including debt sustainability, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions [6][7]

墨西哥这两年在贸易上动作频频，本来是北美供应链的中坚，受美国影响深。2023年夏天，墨西哥政府 突然对来自中国等亚洲国家的钢铁、铝和化工品加征关税，最高25%。这政策一落地，当地工厂成本就 上去了，因为不少原料靠进口。 彼得·纳瓦罗在美国政坛上总喜欢搅动经贸话题，尤其对华态度一贯强硬。他从民主党背景转投特朗普 阵营后，就成了贸易保护主义的代言人。早年间写书抨击中国经济模式，数据常常被指责有偏差。 企业主们私下抱怨，供应链被打乱，生产节奏跟不上。到2025年9月，墨西哥又推更大方案，覆盖上千 项产品，税率拉到50%。国会12月10日批准时，虽然有些调整，但核心是针对非自贸伙伴国，明显冲着 中国去。 2023年因藐视国会调查坐牢四个月，出狱后没多久，又被特朗普拉回白宫，当上贸易和制造业高级顾 问。纳瓦罗的逻辑简单粗暴，强调关税能重振美国制造业，减少逆差，却忽略全球供应链的复杂性。他 的回归，让人觉得特朗普第二任期的贸易政策会更趋对抗。 中方不光发声明，还在行动上稳扎稳打。商务部启动调查，与墨西哥企业沟通损失评估。国内产业则抓 紧优化，从新能源到电子，订单没受大影响。使馆的回击被国际认可，因为它戳中了要害：单边关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of China's imposition of a deposit on EU dairy products, which aims to correct unfair competition caused by EU subsidies, leading to a potential shift in trade dynamics between China and the EU [1][3][5]. Group 1: China's Response to EU Subsidies - China has implemented a "guarantee deposit" on EU dairy products to counteract unfair pricing practices that have distorted market competition [7][17]. - The investigation by China's Ministry of Commerce revealed that EU subsidies have created an unlevel playing field, threatening the viability of local dairy producers [5][19]. - The deposit system is designed to protect China's domestic dairy industry from being undermined by artificially low-priced imports [10][21]. Group 2: EU's Trade Strategy and Consequences - The EU has been accused of maintaining a double standard in its trade policies, protecting its agricultural sector while aggressively pushing subsidized products into foreign markets [23][30]. - The EU's reluctance to finalize trade agreements with South America, particularly with Brazil, reflects its fear of losing market share to lower-priced imports [25][30]. - The article highlights the EU's struggle to balance domestic agricultural interests with its ambitions in global trade, leading to a potential loss of credibility and market access [32][39]. Group 3: Future Trade Dynamics - The article suggests that the current situation may lead to a more equitable trading environment, where competition is based on true costs rather than subsidized pricing [44]. - As South American countries, like Brazil, consider shifting their trade focus towards Asia, the EU risks losing its influence in emerging markets [37][42]. - The evolving landscape indicates a potential end to the era where Western-defined trade rules dominated, paving the way for a more balanced global trade system [44].